Opinion Poll by Ninamedia for Dnevnik, Večer, 12–13 May 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 24.9% 35.6% 33.3–37.9% 32.7–38.6% 32.1–39.2% 31.0–40.3%
Lista Marjana Šarca 12.6% 19.6% 17.8–21.6% 17.2–22.2% 16.8–22.7% 16.0–23.7%
Socialni demokrati 9.9% 13.1% 11.6–14.9% 11.2–15.4% 10.8–15.9% 10.2–16.7%
Levica 9.3% 9.9% 8.5–11.4% 8.2–11.9% 7.9–12.3% 7.3–13.1%
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7.2% 6.6% 5.5–7.9% 5.2–8.3% 5.0–8.7% 4.5–9.4%
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 4.9% 6.0% 5.0–7.3% 4.7–7.7% 4.5–8.0% 4.0–8.7%
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4.2% 2.9% 2.2–3.8% 2.0–4.1% 1.9–4.4% 1.6–4.9%
Slovenska ljudska stranka 2.6% 2.9% 2.2–3.8% 2.0–4.1% 1.9–4.4% 1.6–4.9%
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5.1% 1.7% 1.2–2.5% 1.1–2.8% 1.0–3.0% 0.8–3.4%
Stranka modernega centra 9.7% 0.4% 0.2–1.0% 0.2–1.1% 0.2–1.2% 0.1–1.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 25 35 33–37 32–38 31–39 30–40
Lista Marjana Šarca 13 19 17–21 16–21 16–22 15–23
Socialni demokrati 10 13 11–14 10–15 10–15 10–16
Levica 9 9 8–11 7–11 7–12 7–13
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7 6 5–7 4–8 4–8 4–9
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 5 6 4–7 4–7 4–8 0–9
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4 0 0 0–4 0–4 0–4
Slovenska ljudska stranka 0 0 0 0 0–4 0–4
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5 0 0 0 0 0
Stranka modernega centra 10 0 0 0 0 0

Slovenska demokratska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0% 100% Last Result
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0.2% 100%  
30 1.0% 99.7%  
31 2% 98.8%  
32 6% 97%  
33 18% 90%  
34 14% 72%  
35 13% 58% Median
36 20% 45%  
37 19% 26%  
38 3% 7%  
39 3% 3%  
40 0.5% 0.7%  
41 0.2% 0.2%  
42 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0% 100% Last Result
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.8% 99.9%  
16 5% 99.1%  
17 11% 95%  
18 16% 84%  
19 37% 67% Median
20 19% 31%  
21 7% 12%  
22 3% 5%  
23 2% 2%  
24 0.1% 0.2%  
25 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.4% 100%  
10 5% 99.6% Last Result
11 14% 95%  
12 11% 81%  
13 44% 70% Median
14 18% 25%  
15 6% 7%  
16 2% 2%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Levica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.2% 100%  
7 5% 99.8%  
8 22% 95%  
9 35% 73% Last Result, Median
10 20% 38%  
11 14% 17%  
12 2% 3%  
13 0.7% 0.7%  
14 0% 0%  

Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0% 100%  
4 7% 99.9%  
5 23% 93%  
6 38% 70% Median
7 24% 32% Last Result
8 7% 8%  
9 0.7% 0.8%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.7% 100%  
1 0% 99.3%  
2 0% 99.3%  
3 0.1% 99.3%  
4 11% 99.2%  
5 36% 88% Last Result
6 40% 52% Median
7 10% 12%  
8 2% 3%  
9 0.5% 0.6%  
10 0% 0%  

Slovenska nacionalna stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 93% 100% Median
1 0% 7%  
2 0% 7%  
3 0.7% 7%  
4 5% 6% Last Result
5 0.4% 0.4%  
6 0% 0%  

Slovenska ljudska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska ljudska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 95% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 5%  
2 0% 5%  
3 0.8% 5%  
4 4% 4%  
5 0.3% 0.3%  
6 0% 0%  

Stranka Alenke Bratušek

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0% Last Result

Stranka modernega centra

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka modernega centra page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 43 60 100% 57–62 56–62 55–63 54–64
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca 38 54 100% 52–56 50–57 50–57 48–59
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 35 43 21% 41–46 40–47 39–47 38–49
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra 50 43 21% 41–46 40–47 39–47 38–49
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 45 43 21% 41–46 40–47 39–47 38–49
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 30 38 0% 35–40 35–41 34–41 33–43
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 40 38 0% 35–40 35–41 34–41 33–43
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 28 37 0% 35–39 34–41 33–41 32–42
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra 43 37 0% 35–39 34–41 33–41 32–42
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 38 37 0% 35–39 34–41 33–41 32–42
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati 23 32 0% 29–34 29–35 28–35 27–36
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 33 32 0% 29–34 29–35 28–35 27–36
Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 25 18 0% 16–20 16–21 15–21 14–22

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0% 100% Last Result
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100% Majority
47 0% 100%  
48 0% 100%  
49 0% 100%  
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0.3% 99.9%  
54 0.9% 99.7%  
55 1.4% 98.8%  
56 5% 97%  
57 6% 92%  
58 23% 85%  
59 9% 63%  
60 15% 54% Median
61 26% 38%  
62 8% 12%  
63 3% 4%  
64 0.7% 0.9%  
65 0.1% 0.2%  
66 0% 0%  

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100% Last Result
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100% Majority
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.5% 99.9%  
49 1.4% 99.4%  
50 4% 98%  
51 4% 94%  
52 25% 90%  
53 10% 66%  
54 10% 55% Median
55 13% 45%  
56 25% 33%  
57 5% 7%  
58 1.5% 2%  
59 0.7% 0.9%  
60 0.2% 0.2%  
61 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100% Last Result
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.2% 99.9%  
38 1.2% 99.7%  
39 2% 98.6%  
40 4% 97%  
41 11% 93%  
42 23% 82%  
43 13% 58%  
44 18% 45% Median
45 6% 28%  
46 15% 21% Majority
47 4% 6%  
48 1.5% 2%  
49 0.5% 0.5%  
50 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.2% 99.9%  
38 1.2% 99.7%  
39 2% 98.6%  
40 4% 97%  
41 11% 93%  
42 23% 82%  
43 13% 58%  
44 18% 45% Median
45 6% 28%  
46 15% 21% Majority
47 4% 6%  
48 1.5% 2%  
49 0.5% 0.5%  
50 0% 0% Last Result

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.2% 99.9%  
38 1.2% 99.7%  
39 2% 98.6%  
40 4% 97%  
41 11% 93%  
42 23% 82%  
43 13% 58%  
44 18% 45% Median
45 6% 28% Last Result
46 15% 21% Majority
47 4% 6%  
48 1.5% 2%  
49 0.5% 0.5%  
50 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100% Last Result
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.4% 99.9%  
33 0.9% 99.5%  
34 3% 98.6%  
35 6% 95%  
36 18% 89%  
37 18% 71%  
38 15% 53% Median
39 15% 38%  
40 16% 23%  
41 5% 7%  
42 1.0% 2%  
43 1.0% 1.1%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.4% 99.9%  
33 0.9% 99.5%  
34 3% 98.6%  
35 6% 95%  
36 18% 89%  
37 18% 71%  
38 15% 53% Median
39 15% 38%  
40 16% 23% Last Result
41 5% 7%  
42 1.0% 2%  
43 1.0% 1.1%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0.2% 99.9%  
32 1.0% 99.7%  
33 2% 98.7%  
34 5% 97%  
35 11% 92%  
36 14% 81%  
37 18% 68%  
38 24% 49% Median
39 16% 25%  
40 4% 9%  
41 3% 5%  
42 1.5% 2%  
43 0.1% 0.2%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100%  
31 0.2% 99.9%  
32 1.0% 99.7%  
33 2% 98.7%  
34 5% 97%  
35 11% 92%  
36 14% 81%  
37 18% 68%  
38 24% 49% Median
39 16% 25%  
40 4% 9%  
41 3% 5%  
42 1.5% 2%  
43 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100%  
31 0.2% 99.9%  
32 1.0% 99.7%  
33 2% 98.7%  
34 5% 97%  
35 11% 92%  
36 14% 81%  
37 18% 68%  
38 24% 49% Last Result, Median
39 16% 25%  
40 4% 9%  
41 3% 5%  
42 1.5% 2%  
43 0.1% 0.2%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0.2% 100%  
27 1.2% 99.8%  
28 2% 98.6%  
29 8% 97%  
30 15% 88%  
31 13% 74%  
32 24% 61% Median
33 26% 37%  
34 5% 11%  
35 4% 6%  
36 2% 2%  
37 0.2% 0.3%  
38 0% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.2% 100%  
27 1.2% 99.8%  
28 2% 98.6%  
29 8% 97%  
30 15% 88%  
31 13% 74%  
32 24% 61% Median
33 26% 37% Last Result
34 5% 11%  
35 4% 6%  
36 2% 2%  
37 0.2% 0.3%  
38 0% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 0.3% 99.9%  
14 1.1% 99.6%  
15 3% 98%  
16 9% 96%  
17 12% 87%  
18 28% 74%  
19 23% 46% Median
20 17% 23%  
21 4% 6%  
22 2% 2%  
23 0.3% 0.4%  
24 0% 0.1%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations