Opinion Poll by Mediana for POPTV, 18–21 May 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 24.9% 30.8% 28.6–33.1% 28.0–33.7% 27.5–34.3% 26.5–35.4%
Lista Marjana Šarca 12.6% 23.3% 21.3–25.4% 20.8–26.0% 20.3–26.5% 19.4–27.5%
Levica 9.3% 12.1% 10.7–13.8% 10.3–14.3% 9.9–14.7% 9.3–15.6%
Socialni demokrati 9.9% 10.9% 9.5–12.5% 9.1–13.0% 8.8–13.4% 8.2–14.2%
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7.2% 6.1% 5.1–7.4% 4.8–7.8% 4.6–8.1% 4.1–8.8%
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 4.9% 4.3% 3.5–5.5% 3.2–5.8% 3.1–6.1% 2.7–6.7%
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5.1% 4.0% 3.2–5.2% 3.0–5.5% 2.8–5.7% 2.5–6.3%
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4.2% 4.0% 3.2–5.2% 3.0–5.5% 2.8–5.7% 2.5–6.3%
Stranka modernega centra 9.7% 0.3% 0.2–0.7% 0.1–0.9% 0.1–1.0% 0.0–1.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 25 30 27–32 26–32 25–33 24–34
Lista Marjana Šarca 13 22 20–24 19–24 19–26 18–27
Levica 9 11 10–13 9–14 9–14 8–15
Socialni demokrati 10 10 9–12 8–12 8–13 7–13
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7 6 4–7 4–7 4–7 3–8
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 5 4 0–5 0–5 0–5 0–6
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5 0 0–4 0–5 0–5 0–6
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4 4 0–4 0–5 0–5 0–6
Stranka modernega centra 10 0 0 0 0 0

Slovenska demokratska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 1.3% 99.9%  
25 1.3% 98.6% Last Result
26 6% 97%  
27 11% 91%  
28 14% 80%  
29 16% 66%  
30 25% 50% Median
31 15% 25%  
32 5% 10%  
33 3% 5%  
34 1.4% 2%  
35 0.3% 0.5%  
36 0.1% 0.2%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0% 100% Last Result
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0.3% 100%  
18 2% 99.7%  
19 4% 98%  
20 12% 94%  
21 22% 82%  
22 21% 60% Median
23 19% 39%  
24 15% 20%  
25 2% 5%  
26 1.4% 3%  
27 1.1% 1.3%  
28 0.2% 0.2%  
29 0% 0%  

Levica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.1% 100%  
8 0.7% 99.9%  
9 6% 99.2% Last Result
10 18% 93%  
11 31% 76% Median
12 23% 44%  
13 15% 21%  
14 5% 6%  
15 0.9% 1.1%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 1.5% 100%  
8 7% 98%  
9 21% 91%  
10 34% 70% Last Result, Median
11 23% 35%  
12 10% 13%  
13 2% 3%  
14 0.4% 0.4%  
15 0% 0%  

Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100%  
1 0% 99.7%  
2 0% 99.7%  
3 0.4% 99.7%  
4 11% 99.2%  
5 33% 88%  
6 41% 54% Median
7 12% 14% Last Result
8 1.1% 1.4%  
9 0.3% 0.3%  
10 0% 0%  

Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 30% 100%  
1 0% 70%  
2 0% 70%  
3 9% 70%  
4 43% 61% Median
5 16% 18% Last Result
6 2% 2%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Stranka Alenke Bratušek

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 52% 100% Median
1 0% 48%  
2 0% 48%  
3 5% 48%  
4 36% 43%  
5 6% 7% Last Result
6 0.6% 0.6%  
7 0% 0%  

Slovenska nacionalna stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 41% 100%  
1 0% 59%  
2 0% 59%  
3 7% 59%  
4 45% 53% Last Result, Median
5 7% 8%  
6 0.5% 0.5%  
7 0% 0%  

Stranka modernega centra

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka modernega centra page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 43 54 100% 51–58 50–59 49–59 47–61
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca 38 51 98% 48–55 47–56 46–56 45–58
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra 50 43 12% 38–46 37–47 37–48 36–49
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 35 41 1.4% 37–44 37–44 36–45 34–47
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 45 41 1.4% 37–44 37–44 36–45 34–47
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 30 38 0.1% 35–41 34–41 33–42 32–44
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 40 38 0.1% 35–41 34–41 33–42 32–44
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra 43 37 0.1% 33–40 32–41 32–41 31–44
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 28 35 0% 32–38 31–38 31–39 29–41
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 38 35 0% 32–38 31–38 31–39 29–41
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati 23 32 0% 29–35 29–35 28–36 27–38
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 33 32 0% 29–35 29–35 28–36 27–38
Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 25 14 0% 10–15 9–16 9–16 8–17

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0% 100% Last Result
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0.1% 100% Majority
47 0.4% 99.9%  
48 1.0% 99.5%  
49 3% 98%  
50 3% 95%  
51 8% 92%  
52 9% 84%  
53 19% 75%  
54 12% 56%  
55 12% 44%  
56 10% 33% Median
57 12% 23%  
58 4% 11%  
59 5% 7%  
60 0.9% 2%  
61 0.9% 1.1%  
62 0.1% 0.2%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100% Last Result
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0.2% 100%  
45 2% 99.8%  
46 2% 98% Majority
47 3% 96%  
48 8% 93%  
49 13% 85%  
50 10% 72%  
51 15% 62%  
52 12% 47% Median
53 15% 35%  
54 7% 20%  
55 7% 12%  
56 3% 5%  
57 1.1% 2%  
58 0.8% 1.2%  
59 0.3% 0.4%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.7% 99.9%  
37 5% 99.2%  
38 7% 94%  
39 5% 88%  
40 4% 82%  
41 11% 78%  
42 8% 68% Median
43 20% 59%  
44 16% 39%  
45 11% 23%  
46 7% 12% Majority
47 2% 5%  
48 2% 3%  
49 0.4% 0.8%  
50 0.3% 0.4% Last Result
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.1% 99.9%  
34 0.6% 99.8%  
35 1.3% 99.2% Last Result
36 3% 98%  
37 11% 95%  
38 9% 84%  
39 8% 75%  
40 12% 67%  
41 13% 55%  
42 13% 42% Median
43 19% 29%  
44 6% 10%  
45 3% 4%  
46 0.8% 1.4% Majority
47 0.4% 0.6%  
48 0.1% 0.2%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.1% 99.9%  
34 0.6% 99.8%  
35 1.3% 99.2%  
36 3% 98%  
37 11% 95%  
38 9% 84%  
39 8% 75%  
40 12% 67%  
41 13% 55%  
42 13% 42% Median
43 19% 29%  
44 6% 10%  
45 3% 4% Last Result
46 0.8% 1.4% Majority
47 0.4% 0.6%  
48 0.1% 0.2%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100% Last Result
31 0.2% 99.9%  
32 0.6% 99.8%  
33 4% 99.1%  
34 5% 95%  
35 7% 90%  
36 13% 83%  
37 17% 70%  
38 16% 53% Median
39 14% 37%  
40 11% 22%  
41 6% 11%  
42 3% 5%  
43 1.5% 2%  
44 0.3% 0.7%  
45 0.2% 0.3%  
46 0.1% 0.1% Majority
47 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.2% 99.9%  
32 0.6% 99.8%  
33 4% 99.1%  
34 5% 95%  
35 7% 90%  
36 13% 83%  
37 17% 70%  
38 16% 53% Median
39 14% 37%  
40 11% 22% Last Result
41 6% 11%  
42 3% 5%  
43 1.5% 2%  
44 0.3% 0.7%  
45 0.2% 0.3%  
46 0.1% 0.1% Majority
47 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.3% 99.9%  
31 1.5% 99.7%  
32 5% 98%  
33 5% 93%  
34 6% 88%  
35 9% 82%  
36 11% 73% Median
37 13% 62%  
38 24% 49%  
39 10% 25%  
40 7% 15%  
41 6% 8%  
42 1.0% 2%  
43 0.5% 1.1% Last Result
44 0.4% 0.6%  
45 0.1% 0.2%  
46 0.1% 0.1% Majority
47 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.2% 99.9% Last Result
29 0.7% 99.6%  
30 1.3% 98.9%  
31 6% 98%  
32 9% 91%  
33 11% 82%  
34 12% 72%  
35 14% 59%  
36 12% 45% Median
37 15% 33%  
38 14% 18%  
39 2% 4%  
40 0.7% 2%  
41 0.8% 1.1%  
42 0.2% 0.3%  
43 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.2% 99.9%  
29 0.7% 99.6%  
30 1.3% 98.9%  
31 6% 98%  
32 9% 91%  
33 11% 82%  
34 12% 72%  
35 14% 59%  
36 12% 45% Median
37 15% 33%  
38 14% 18% Last Result
39 2% 4%  
40 0.7% 2%  
41 0.8% 1.1%  
42 0.2% 0.3%  
43 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0.1% 100%  
27 1.2% 99.8%  
28 3% 98.6%  
29 7% 96%  
30 12% 89%  
31 17% 77%  
32 17% 60% Median
33 16% 43%  
34 12% 27%  
35 10% 15%  
36 3% 4%  
37 1.0% 2%  
38 0.6% 0.8%  
39 0.1% 0.2%  
40 0% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 1.2% 99.8%  
28 3% 98.6%  
29 7% 96%  
30 12% 89%  
31 17% 77%  
32 17% 60% Median
33 16% 43% Last Result
34 12% 27%  
35 10% 15%  
36 3% 4%  
37 1.0% 2%  
38 0.6% 0.8%  
39 0.1% 0.2%  
40 0% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.1% 100%  
8 2% 99.9%  
9 7% 98%  
10 8% 91%  
11 11% 84%  
12 8% 73%  
13 14% 65%  
14 19% 50% Median
15 24% 31%  
16 5% 7%  
17 2% 2%  
18 0.4% 0.5%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations