Opinion Poll by Parsifal for Nova 24TV, 15–17 June 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 24.9% 32.8% 30.6–35.1% 30.0–35.7% 29.4–36.3% 28.4–37.4%
Lista Marjana Šarca 12.6% 18.0% 16.2–19.9% 15.8–20.5% 15.3–21.0% 14.6–21.9%
Socialni demokrati 9.9% 13.1% 11.6–14.9% 11.2–15.4% 10.9–15.8% 10.2–16.7%
Levica 9.3% 8.4% 7.2–9.9% 6.9–10.3% 6.6–10.7% 6.1–11.4%
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7.2% 7.7% 6.6–9.2% 6.3–9.6% 6.0–9.9% 5.5–10.7%
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 4.9% 5.9% 5.0–7.2% 4.7–7.6% 4.5–7.9% 4.0–8.6%
Slovenska ljudska stranka 2.6% 4.1% 3.3–5.3% 3.1–5.6% 2.9–5.9% 2.6–6.4%
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5.1% 2.2% 1.6–3.1% 1.5–3.3% 1.4–3.6% 1.1–4.0%
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4.2% 1.9% 1.4–2.8% 1.3–3.0% 1.2–3.2% 0.9–3.7%
Stranka modernega centra 9.7% 1.7% 1.2–2.5% 1.1–2.7% 0.9–2.9% 0.8–3.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 25 32 29–35 29–36 28–37 28–37
Lista Marjana Šarca 13 17 15–19 15–20 15–20 14–22
Socialni demokrati 10 12 11–14 11–15 10–15 10–16
Levica 9 8 7–10 6–10 6–10 5–11
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7 7 6–9 6–9 6–9 5–10
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 5 6 5–7 4–7 4–7 0–8
Slovenska ljudska stranka 0 4 0–5 0–5 0–5 0–6
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5 0 0 0 0 0
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4 0 0 0 0 0
Stranka modernega centra 10 0 0 0 0 0

Slovenska demokratska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0% 100% Last Result
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.4% 99.9%  
28 4% 99.5%  
29 7% 96%  
30 11% 89%  
31 16% 78%  
32 20% 62% Median
33 18% 42%  
34 5% 25%  
35 10% 19%  
36 6% 9%  
37 2% 3%  
38 0.2% 0.3%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.2% 100% Last Result
14 1.1% 99.8%  
15 10% 98.7%  
16 15% 89%  
17 24% 73% Median
18 24% 49%  
19 17% 25%  
20 5% 8%  
21 1.3% 2%  
22 0.8% 0.9%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.2% 100%  
10 3% 99.8% Last Result
11 22% 97%  
12 26% 75% Median
13 19% 49%  
14 24% 30%  
15 5% 6%  
16 1.4% 2%  
17 0.2% 0.2%  
18 0% 0%  

Levica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.6% 100%  
6 6% 99.4%  
7 30% 93%  
8 37% 64% Median
9 16% 27% Last Result
10 11% 12%  
11 0.5% 0.6%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 2% 99.9%  
6 14% 98%  
7 41% 85% Last Result, Median
8 33% 43%  
9 8% 10%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0.2% 0.3%  
12 0% 0%  

Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.6% 100%  
1 0% 99.4%  
2 0% 99.4%  
3 0.1% 99.4%  
4 9% 99.4%  
5 34% 90% Last Result
6 41% 56% Median
7 13% 15%  
8 2% 2%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Slovenska ljudska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska ljudska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 45% 100% Last Result
1 0% 55%  
2 0% 55%  
3 0.7% 55%  
4 41% 54% Median
5 12% 13%  
6 1.1% 1.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Stranka Alenke Bratušek

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.7% 100% Median
1 0% 0.3%  
2 0% 0.3%  
3 0.1% 0.3%  
4 0.2% 0.2%  
5 0% 0% Last Result

Slovenska nacionalna stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
5 0% 0%  

Stranka modernega centra

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka modernega centra page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 43 55 100% 52–58 51–59 51–59 49–63
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca 38 49 97% 47–53 46–54 45–54 44–58
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 35 43 9% 40–45 39–46 39–48 37–49
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra 50 43 10% 40–45 39–46 39–48 37–49
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 45 43 9% 40–45 39–46 39–48 37–49
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 30 38 0% 34–40 33–41 33–42 32–43
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 40 38 0% 34–40 33–41 33–42 32–43
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 28 36 0% 32–38 32–39 32–40 31–41
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra 43 36 0% 32–38 32–39 32–40 31–41
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 38 36 0% 32–38 32–39 32–40 31–41
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati 23 30 0% 27–32 26–33 26–34 26–35
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 33 30 0% 27–32 26–33 26–34 26–35
Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 25 18 0% 16–20 16–21 15–21 14–22

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0% 100% Last Result
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100% Majority
47 0% 100%  
48 0.2% 100%  
49 0.4% 99.8%  
50 1.2% 99.4%  
51 4% 98%  
52 7% 94%  
53 9% 87%  
54 16% 78%  
55 20% 63% Median
56 14% 43%  
57 8% 29%  
58 11% 21%  
59 8% 10%  
60 1.0% 2%  
61 0.4% 1.3%  
62 0.2% 0.9%  
63 0.7% 0.7%  
64 0% 0%  

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100% Last Result
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0.2% 100%  
44 0.5% 99.7%  
45 2% 99.2%  
46 4% 97% Majority
47 10% 92%  
48 13% 83%  
49 20% 69% Median
50 17% 49%  
51 9% 32%  
52 8% 23%  
53 9% 14%  
54 4% 6%  
55 0.6% 1.5%  
56 0.3% 0.9%  
57 0% 0.6%  
58 0.6% 0.6%  
59 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100% Last Result
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.6% 99.9%  
38 0.8% 99.2%  
39 7% 98%  
40 5% 91%  
41 9% 86%  
42 14% 77% Median
43 19% 63%  
44 16% 44%  
45 18% 28%  
46 5% 9% Majority
47 2% 5%  
48 2% 3%  
49 0.3% 0.6%  
50 0.3% 0.3%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.6% 99.9%  
38 0.8% 99.2%  
39 7% 98%  
40 5% 91%  
41 9% 86%  
42 14% 77% Median
43 19% 63%  
44 16% 44%  
45 18% 28%  
46 5% 10% Majority
47 2% 5%  
48 2% 3%  
49 0.3% 0.6%  
50 0.3% 0.4% Last Result
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.6% 99.9%  
38 0.8% 99.2%  
39 7% 98%  
40 5% 91%  
41 9% 86%  
42 14% 77% Median
43 19% 63%  
44 16% 44%  
45 18% 28% Last Result
46 5% 9% Majority
47 2% 5%  
48 2% 3%  
49 0.3% 0.6%  
50 0.3% 0.3%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100% Last Result
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.4% 99.8%  
33 6% 99.4%  
34 5% 94%  
35 10% 89%  
36 10% 78% Median
37 13% 68%  
38 20% 55%  
39 20% 35%  
40 9% 15%  
41 3% 6%  
42 3% 3%  
43 0.3% 0.6%  
44 0.1% 0.3%  
45 0.1% 0.2%  
46 0% 0% Majority

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.4% 99.8%  
33 6% 99.4%  
34 5% 94%  
35 10% 89%  
36 10% 78% Median
37 13% 68%  
38 20% 55%  
39 20% 35%  
40 9% 15% Last Result
41 3% 6%  
42 3% 3%  
43 0.3% 0.6%  
44 0.1% 0.3%  
45 0.1% 0.2%  
46 0% 0% Majority

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.3% 99.9%  
31 1.5% 99.6%  
32 8% 98%  
33 5% 90%  
34 13% 85%  
35 19% 72% Median
36 12% 53%  
37 28% 41%  
38 7% 14%  
39 4% 7%  
40 1.1% 3%  
41 1.4% 2%  
42 0.2% 0.3%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.3% 99.9%  
31 1.5% 99.6%  
32 8% 98%  
33 5% 90%  
34 13% 85%  
35 19% 72% Median
36 12% 53%  
37 28% 41%  
38 7% 14%  
39 4% 7%  
40 1.2% 3%  
41 1.5% 2%  
42 0.2% 0.3%  
43 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
44 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.3% 99.9%  
31 1.5% 99.6%  
32 8% 98%  
33 5% 90%  
34 13% 85%  
35 19% 72% Median
36 12% 53%  
37 28% 41%  
38 7% 14% Last Result
39 4% 7%  
40 1.1% 3%  
41 1.4% 2%  
42 0.2% 0.3%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.3% 99.9%  
26 6% 99.5%  
27 4% 93%  
28 16% 89%  
29 11% 73% Median
30 15% 62%  
31 24% 48%  
32 16% 24%  
33 4% 8%  
34 2% 4%  
35 2% 2%  
36 0.2% 0.3%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.3% 99.9%  
26 6% 99.5%  
27 4% 93%  
28 16% 89%  
29 11% 73% Median
30 15% 62%  
31 24% 48%  
32 16% 24%  
33 4% 8% Last Result
34 2% 4%  
35 2% 2%  
36 0.2% 0.3%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 99.9%  
13 0.2% 99.9%  
14 0.3% 99.7%  
15 3% 99.5%  
16 11% 96%  
17 11% 85%  
18 31% 74% Median
19 27% 43%  
20 10% 16%  
21 4% 6%  
22 1.3% 2%  
23 0.3% 0.4%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations