Opinion Poll by Mediana for POPTV, 1–28 June 2020
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slovenska demokratska stranka | 24.9% | 26.8% | 24.7–29.0% | 24.2–29.6% | 23.7–30.1% | 22.7–31.2% |
| Lista Marjana Šarca | 12.6% | 16.3% | 14.7–18.2% | 14.2–18.7% | 13.8–19.2% | 13.0–20.1% |
| Levica | 9.3% | 14.2% | 12.7–16.0% | 12.2–16.5% | 11.9–17.0% | 11.1–17.9% |
| Socialni demokrati | 9.9% | 13.2% | 11.7–15.0% | 11.3–15.5% | 11.0–15.9% | 10.3–16.8% |
| Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati | 7.2% | 7.7% | 6.5–9.1% | 6.2–9.5% | 5.9–9.9% | 5.4–10.6% |
| Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 4.9% | 7.3% | 6.1–8.6% | 5.8–9.0% | 5.6–9.4% | 5.1–10.1% |
| Slovenska nacionalna stranka | 4.2% | 5.9% | 4.9–7.1% | 4.6–7.5% | 4.4–7.8% | 3.9–8.5% |
| Slovenska ljudska stranka | 2.6% | 3.2% | 2.5–4.2% | 2.3–4.5% | 2.1–4.8% | 1.8–5.3% |
| Stranka Alenke Bratušek | 5.1% | 2.9% | 2.3–3.9% | 2.1–4.2% | 1.9–4.5% | 1.6–5.0% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slovenska demokratska stranka | 25 | 26 | 24–28 | 23–29 | 23–29 | 22–30 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca | 13 | 16 | 14–17 | 13–18 | 13–18 | 12–20 |
| Levica | 9 | 14 | 12–15 | 12–16 | 11–16 | 10–17 |
| Socialni demokrati | 10 | 13 | 11–14 | 11–15 | 10–15 | 10–16 |
| Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati | 7 | 7 | 6–8 | 6–9 | 5–9 | 5–10 |
| Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 5 | 7 | 6–8 | 5–8 | 5–9 | 5–9 |
| Slovenska nacionalna stranka | 4 | 5 | 4–6 | 4–7 | 4–7 | 0–8 |
| Slovenska ljudska stranka | 0 | 0 | 0–3 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 |
| Stranka Alenke Bratušek | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0–3 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
Slovenska demokratska stranka
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 22 | 1.4% | 99.7% | |
| 23 | 7% | 98% | |
| 24 | 14% | 91% | |
| 25 | 19% | 77% | Last Result |
| 26 | 21% | 58% | Median |
| 27 | 23% | 37% | |
| 28 | 9% | 14% | |
| 29 | 4% | 5% | |
| 30 | 1.1% | 1.4% | |
| 31 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 13 | 5% | 99.3% | Last Result |
| 14 | 13% | 94% | |
| 15 | 17% | 81% | |
| 16 | 34% | 64% | Median |
| 17 | 24% | 31% | |
| 18 | 5% | 7% | |
| 19 | 2% | 2% | |
| 20 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 21 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Levica
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 10 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 11 | 3% | 99.4% | |
| 12 | 17% | 96% | |
| 13 | 27% | 79% | |
| 14 | 26% | 52% | Median |
| 15 | 20% | 26% | |
| 16 | 4% | 6% | |
| 17 | 1.2% | 1.5% | |
| 18 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Socialni demokrati
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 10 | 3% | 99.6% | Last Result |
| 11 | 12% | 96% | |
| 12 | 29% | 84% | |
| 13 | 23% | 55% | Median |
| 14 | 24% | 32% | |
| 15 | 6% | 8% | |
| 16 | 1.3% | 1.5% | |
| 17 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 5 | 3% | 99.9% | |
| 6 | 24% | 97% | |
| 7 | 42% | 73% | Last Result, Median |
| 8 | 24% | 31% | |
| 9 | 7% | 8% | |
| 10 | 1.1% | 1.2% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 5 | 8% | 99.5% | Last Result |
| 6 | 33% | 92% | |
| 7 | 35% | 59% | Median |
| 8 | 21% | 25% | |
| 9 | 3% | 4% | |
| 10 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Slovenska nacionalna stranka
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 99.4% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.4% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 4 | 14% | 99.3% | Last Result |
| 5 | 38% | 85% | Median |
| 6 | 39% | 47% | |
| 7 | 7% | 8% | |
| 8 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Slovenska ljudska stranka
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska ljudska stranka page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 88% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 12% | |
| 2 | 0% | 12% | |
| 3 | 2% | 12% | |
| 4 | 9% | 9% | |
| 5 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Stranka Alenke Bratušek
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 94% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 6% | |
| 2 | 0% | 6% | |
| 3 | 2% | 6% | |
| 4 | 4% | 4% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.2% | Last Result |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 43 | 48 | 93% | 46–51 | 45–51 | 44–52 | 43–54 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 35 | 43 | 5% | 40–45 | 39–45 | 38–46 | 37–47 |
| Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca | 38 | 41 | 2% | 39–44 | 39–44 | 38–45 | 37–47 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati | 30 | 36 | 0% | 33–38 | 32–39 | 32–39 | 31–40 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 28 | 36 | 0% | 33–37 | 32–38 | 31–39 | 30–40 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati | 23 | 29 | 0% | 26–31 | 25–31 | 25–32 | 24–33 |
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 42 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0.6% | 99.8% | Last Result |
| 44 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 45 | 4% | 97% | |
| 46 | 8% | 93% | Majority |
| 47 | 22% | 85% | |
| 48 | 14% | 63% | |
| 49 | 12% | 49% | Median |
| 50 | 23% | 37% | |
| 51 | 10% | 14% | |
| 52 | 2% | 4% | |
| 53 | 1.0% | 1.5% | |
| 54 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 36 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 37 | 1.0% | 99.8% | |
| 38 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 39 | 4% | 97% | |
| 40 | 8% | 92% | |
| 41 | 12% | 84% | |
| 42 | 18% | 73% | |
| 43 | 29% | 55% | Median |
| 44 | 15% | 27% | |
| 45 | 7% | 12% | |
| 46 | 3% | 5% | Majority |
| 47 | 1.0% | 1.4% | |
| 48 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% |
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 37 | 1.3% | 99.5% | |
| 38 | 3% | 98% | Last Result |
| 39 | 10% | 96% | |
| 40 | 16% | 86% | |
| 41 | 20% | 70% | |
| 42 | 14% | 50% | Median |
| 43 | 15% | 36% | |
| 44 | 17% | 21% | |
| 45 | 2% | 4% | |
| 46 | 1.4% | 2% | Majority |
| 47 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 48 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0.3% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 31 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 32 | 4% | 98% | |
| 33 | 7% | 94% | |
| 34 | 10% | 87% | |
| 35 | 24% | 77% | |
| 36 | 20% | 53% | Median |
| 37 | 18% | 34% | |
| 38 | 11% | 16% | |
| 39 | 4% | 5% | |
| 40 | 1.1% | 1.4% | |
| 41 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 29 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 31 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 32 | 5% | 97% | |
| 33 | 9% | 91% | |
| 34 | 13% | 82% | |
| 35 | 13% | 69% | |
| 36 | 29% | 56% | Median |
| 37 | 20% | 28% | |
| 38 | 5% | 8% | |
| 39 | 2% | 3% | |
| 40 | 1.0% | 1.2% | |
| 41 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0.3% | 100% | Last Result |
| 24 | 1.3% | 99.7% | |
| 25 | 4% | 98% | |
| 26 | 8% | 95% | |
| 27 | 13% | 86% | |
| 28 | 24% | 74% | |
| 29 | 19% | 50% | Median |
| 30 | 14% | 31% | |
| 31 | 15% | 17% | |
| 32 | 2% | 3% | |
| 33 | 1.0% | 1.1% | |
| 34 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Mediana
- Commissioner(s): POPTV
- Fieldwork period: 1–28 June 2020
Calculations
- Sample size: 717
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.94%