Opinion Poll by Parsifal for Nova 24TV, 29 June–2 July 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 24.9% 31.0% 28.9–33.3% 28.3–34.0% 27.8–34.5% 26.7–35.7%
Lista Marjana Šarca 12.6% 20.7% 18.9–22.7% 18.3–23.3% 17.9–23.8% 17.0–24.8%
Socialni demokrati 9.9% 16.5% 14.8–18.4% 14.4–18.9% 14.0–19.4% 13.2–20.3%
Levica 9.3% 9.0% 7.7–10.5% 7.4–10.9% 7.1–11.3% 6.5–12.0%
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 4.9% 5.7% 4.8–7.0% 4.5–7.4% 4.3–7.7% 3.8–8.4%
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7.2% 5.3% 4.4–6.6% 4.1–6.9% 3.9–7.2% 3.5–7.8%
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4.2% 4.3% 3.5–5.5% 3.3–5.8% 3.1–6.1% 2.7–6.7%
Slovenska ljudska stranka 2.6% 2.5% 1.9–3.4% 1.7–3.7% 1.6–3.9% 1.3–4.5%
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5.1% 1.3% 0.9–2.0% 0.7–2.2% 0.7–2.4% 0.5–2.8%
Stranka modernega centra 9.7% 0.6% 0.3–1.1% 0.3–1.3% 0.2–1.4% 0.1–1.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 25 30 28–33 27–34 27–35 26–35
Lista Marjana Šarca 13 20 18–22 17–23 17–23 16–25
Socialni demokrati 10 16 14–18 13–19 13–19 12–20
Levica 9 8 7–10 7–11 6–11 6–11
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 5 5 4–7 4–7 4–7 0–8
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7 5 4–6 4–6 0–7 0–7
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4 4 0–5 0–5 0–6 0–6
Slovenska ljudska stranka 0 0 0 0 0 0–4
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5 0 0 0 0 0
Stranka modernega centra 10 0 0 0 0 0

Slovenska demokratska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.2% 99.9% Last Result
26 2% 99.7%  
27 7% 98%  
28 11% 91%  
29 24% 80%  
30 14% 57% Median
31 16% 43%  
32 13% 27%  
33 8% 14%  
34 3% 5%  
35 2% 3%  
36 0.2% 0.4%  
37 0.2% 0.2%  
38 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0% 100% Last Result
14 0% 100%  
15 0.1% 100%  
16 2% 99.9%  
17 3% 98%  
18 12% 95%  
19 27% 83%  
20 28% 56% Median
21 13% 29%  
22 8% 16%  
23 6% 8%  
24 1.4% 2%  
25 0.6% 0.7%  
26 0% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100% Last Result
11 0% 100%  
12 0.5% 100%  
13 5% 99.4%  
14 12% 95%  
15 21% 83%  
16 21% 62% Median
17 21% 41%  
18 15% 21%  
19 5% 6%  
20 0.7% 0.8%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Levica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.2% 100%  
6 3% 99.8%  
7 13% 97%  
8 37% 84% Median
9 31% 47% Last Result
10 11% 16%  
11 5% 5%  
12 0.4% 0.4%  
13 0% 0%  

Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.5% 100%  
1 0% 98.5%  
2 0% 98.5%  
3 0.1% 98.5%  
4 18% 98%  
5 36% 80% Last Result, Median
6 34% 45%  
7 10% 11%  
8 0.7% 0.8%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100%  
1 0% 96%  
2 0% 96%  
3 0.2% 96%  
4 30% 95%  
5 41% 65% Median
6 20% 24%  
7 4% 5% Last Result
8 0.2% 0.2%  
9 0% 0%  

Slovenska nacionalna stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 34% 100%  
1 0% 66%  
2 0% 66%  
3 6% 66%  
4 38% 60% Last Result, Median
5 20% 22%  
6 2% 3%  
7 0.2% 0.2%  
8 0% 0%  

Slovenska ljudska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska ljudska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 2%  
2 0% 2%  
3 0.5% 2%  
4 1.4% 1.4%  
5 0% 0%  

Stranka Alenke Bratušek

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0% Last Result

Stranka modernega centra

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka modernega centra page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 43 55 100% 52–58 51–59 51–60 50–62
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca 38 50 98.7% 47–53 46–54 46–55 44–57
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 35 46 60% 43–49 42–49 41–50 40–51
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra 50 46 60% 43–49 42–49 41–50 40–51
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 45 46 60% 43–49 42–49 41–50 40–51
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 28 41 2% 38–44 37–45 36–45 35–47
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra 43 41 2% 38–44 37–45 36–45 35–47
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 38 41 2% 38–44 37–45 36–45 35–47
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 30 41 1.1% 38–44 37–44 36–45 35–46
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 40 41 1.1% 38–44 37–44 36–45 35–46
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati 23 36 0% 33–39 32–40 32–40 31–41
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 33 36 0% 33–39 32–40 32–40 31–41
Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 25 21 0% 19–24 18–24 18–24 16–25

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0% 100% Last Result
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100% Majority
47 0% 100%  
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.3% 99.9%  
50 1.1% 99.6%  
51 4% 98%  
52 6% 95%  
53 11% 89%  
54 18% 78%  
55 18% 60% Median
56 9% 42%  
57 11% 33%  
58 13% 22%  
59 5% 10%  
60 2% 4%  
61 0.6% 2%  
62 1.1% 1.4%  
63 0.2% 0.3%  
64 0% 0%  

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100% Last Result
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.7% 99.9%  
45 0.6% 99.2%  
46 4% 98.7% Majority
47 7% 95%  
48 17% 88%  
49 16% 71%  
50 13% 54% Median
51 12% 41%  
52 14% 29%  
53 7% 15%  
54 4% 8%  
55 1.0% 3%  
56 2% 2%  
57 0.6% 0.8%  
58 0.2% 0.2%  
59 0% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100% Last Result
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0.2% 100%  
40 1.0% 99.8%  
41 2% 98.7%  
42 3% 97%  
43 9% 94%  
44 12% 85%  
45 13% 72%  
46 12% 60% Median, Majority
47 15% 48%  
48 22% 32%  
49 6% 10%  
50 3% 4%  
51 1.3% 2%  
52 0.2% 0.5%  
53 0.2% 0.2%  
54 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.2% 100%  
40 1.0% 99.8%  
41 2% 98.7%  
42 3% 97%  
43 9% 94%  
44 12% 85%  
45 13% 72%  
46 12% 60% Median, Majority
47 15% 48%  
48 22% 32%  
49 6% 10%  
50 3% 4% Last Result
51 1.3% 2%  
52 0.2% 0.5%  
53 0.2% 0.2%  
54 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.2% 100%  
40 1.0% 99.8%  
41 2% 98.7%  
42 3% 97%  
43 9% 94%  
44 12% 85%  
45 13% 72% Last Result
46 12% 60% Median, Majority
47 15% 48%  
48 22% 32%  
49 6% 10%  
50 3% 4%  
51 1.3% 2%  
52 0.2% 0.5%  
53 0.2% 0.2%  
54 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.6% 99.9%  
36 2% 99.4%  
37 3% 97%  
38 7% 95%  
39 10% 88%  
40 20% 78%  
41 8% 58% Median
42 14% 50%  
43 19% 36%  
44 12% 17%  
45 3% 5%  
46 2% 2% Majority
47 0.6% 0.7%  
48 0.1% 0.2%  
49 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.6% 99.9%  
36 2% 99.4%  
37 3% 97%  
38 7% 95%  
39 10% 88%  
40 20% 78%  
41 8% 58% Median
42 14% 50%  
43 19% 36% Last Result
44 12% 17%  
45 3% 5%  
46 2% 2% Majority
47 0.6% 0.7%  
48 0.1% 0.2%  
49 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.6% 99.9%  
36 2% 99.4%  
37 3% 97%  
38 7% 95% Last Result
39 10% 88%  
40 20% 78%  
41 8% 58% Median
42 14% 50%  
43 19% 36%  
44 12% 17%  
45 3% 5%  
46 2% 2% Majority
47 0.6% 0.7%  
48 0.1% 0.2%  
49 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100% Last Result
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0.2% 100%  
35 1.1% 99.7%  
36 2% 98.6%  
37 4% 97%  
38 11% 93%  
39 12% 82%  
40 14% 70%  
41 17% 56% Median
42 17% 39%  
43 11% 22%  
44 8% 11%  
45 2% 3%  
46 0.8% 1.1% Majority
47 0.2% 0.3%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.2% 100%  
35 1.1% 99.7%  
36 2% 98.6%  
37 4% 97%  
38 11% 93%  
39 12% 82%  
40 14% 70% Last Result
41 17% 56% Median
42 17% 39%  
43 11% 22%  
44 8% 11%  
45 2% 3%  
46 0.8% 1.1% Majority
47 0.2% 0.3%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0.3% 99.9%  
31 1.4% 99.7%  
32 4% 98%  
33 7% 94%  
34 12% 87%  
35 21% 75%  
36 12% 54% Median
37 14% 42%  
38 16% 28%  
39 6% 12%  
40 5% 6%  
41 0.7% 1.1%  
42 0.3% 0.3%  
43 0% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0% 100%  
30 0.3% 99.9%  
31 1.4% 99.7%  
32 4% 98%  
33 7% 94% Last Result
34 12% 87%  
35 21% 75%  
36 12% 54% Median
37 14% 42%  
38 16% 28%  
39 6% 12%  
40 5% 6%  
41 0.7% 1.1%  
42 0.3% 0.3%  
43 0% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0% 100%  
15 0.1% 99.9%  
16 0.5% 99.8%  
17 2% 99.3%  
18 3% 98%  
19 9% 94%  
20 22% 85%  
21 14% 63% Median
22 16% 49%  
23 17% 33%  
24 14% 16%  
25 2% 2% Last Result
26 0.4% 0.5%  
27 0% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations