Opinion Poll by Mediana for POPTV, 6–9 July 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 24.9% 27.2% 25.1–29.4% 24.6–30.0% 24.1–30.5% 23.1–31.6%
Lista Marjana Šarca 12.6% 18.3% 16.6–20.3% 16.1–20.9% 15.7–21.3% 14.9–22.3%
Socialni demokrati 9.9% 17.2% 15.5–19.2% 15.1–19.7% 14.7–20.2% 13.9–21.1%
Levica 9.3% 9.7% 8.4–11.2% 8.0–11.6% 7.7–12.0% 7.1–12.8%
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7.2% 6.3% 5.3–7.7% 5.0–8.0% 4.8–8.4% 4.3–9.0%
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4.2% 4.1% 3.3–5.3% 3.1–5.6% 2.9–5.9% 2.6–6.4%
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 4.9% 3.9% 3.1–5.0% 2.9–5.3% 2.7–5.5% 2.3–6.1%
Stranka modernega centra 9.7% 2.9% 2.2–3.9% 2.1–4.1% 1.9–4.4% 1.6–4.9%
Slovenska ljudska stranka 2.6% 2.5% 1.9–3.4% 1.7–3.7% 1.6–3.9% 1.3–4.4%
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5.1% 2.3% 1.8–3.2% 1.6–3.5% 1.5–3.7% 1.2–4.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 25 27 25–29 24–30 24–30 23–33
Lista Marjana Šarca 13 18 16–20 16–21 16–21 15–22
Socialni demokrati 10 17 15–19 15–20 14–20 14–22
Levica 9 10 8–11 8–11 7–12 7–13
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7 6 5–7 5–8 4–8 4–9
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4 4 0–5 0–5 0–5 0–6
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 5 0 0–4 0–5 0–5 0–5
Stranka modernega centra 10 0 0 0–4 0–4 0–4
Slovenska ljudska stranka 0 0 0 0 0 0–4
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5 0 0 0 0 0–4

Slovenska demokratska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.4% 100%  
23 1.2% 99.5%  
24 4% 98%  
25 12% 95% Last Result
26 16% 83%  
27 20% 66% Median
28 31% 47%  
29 9% 16%  
30 5% 7%  
31 1.4% 2%  
32 0.5% 1.0%  
33 0.2% 0.5%  
34 0.3% 0.3%  
35 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100% Last Result
14 0.4% 99.9%  
15 2% 99.5%  
16 24% 98%  
17 18% 74%  
18 17% 56% Median
19 17% 39%  
20 15% 22%  
21 5% 7%  
22 0.9% 1.2%  
23 0.3% 0.3%  
24 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100% Last Result
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0.4% 100%  
14 3% 99.5%  
15 10% 97%  
16 19% 87%  
17 33% 68% Median
18 15% 35%  
19 14% 20%  
20 4% 6%  
21 1.0% 2%  
22 0.7% 0.7%  
23 0% 0%  

Levica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.3% 100%  
7 4% 99.7%  
8 9% 96%  
9 35% 86% Last Result
10 37% 52% Median
11 12% 15%  
12 2% 3%  
13 0.7% 0.7%  
14 0% 0%  

Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 4% 99.9%  
5 26% 95%  
6 32% 69% Median
7 32% 37% Last Result
8 4% 5%  
9 0.8% 0.9%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Slovenska nacionalna stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 29% 100%  
1 0% 71%  
2 0% 71%  
3 0.3% 71%  
4 53% 71% Last Result, Median
5 16% 18%  
6 2% 2%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 59% 100% Median
1 0% 41%  
2 0% 41%  
3 5% 41%  
4 29% 36%  
5 7% 7% Last Result
6 0.3% 0.3%  
7 0% 0%  

Stranka modernega centra

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka modernega centra page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 94% 100% Median
1 0% 6%  
2 0% 6%  
3 0.3% 6%  
4 5% 6%  
5 0.3% 0.3%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Slovenska ljudska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska ljudska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 1.1%  
2 0% 1.1%  
3 0.1% 1.1%  
4 0.9% 0.9%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Stranka Alenke Bratušek

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.2% 100% Median
1 0% 0.8%  
2 0% 0.8%  
3 0% 0.8%  
4 0.7% 0.7%  
5 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 43 47 59% 44–50 43–51 42–52 41–53
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca 38 45 35% 43–48 42–49 41–49 39–52
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra – Stranka Alenke Bratušek 50 43 20% 40–47 40–48 39–49 38–50
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 45 43 20% 40–47 40–48 39–49 38–50
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 35 43 17% 40–46 40–47 39–48 37–50
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 30 40 4% 39–44 38–45 37–46 36–47
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 40 41 6% 39–45 38–46 37–46 36–47
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra – Stranka Alenke Bratušek 43 37 0.1% 33–40 33–42 33–43 32–44
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 38 37 0.1% 33–40 33–42 33–43 32–44
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 28 37 0% 33–40 33–41 33–42 31–43
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati 23 35 0% 33–38 32–39 31–40 30–41
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 33 35 0% 33–38 32–39 31–40 30–41
Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 25 19 0% 17–22 16–23 16–24 14–25

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 1.2% 99.9%  
42 1.2% 98.7%  
43 5% 97% Last Result
44 18% 92%  
45 15% 74% Median
46 8% 59% Majority
47 10% 51%  
48 9% 42%  
49 14% 32%  
50 10% 18%  
51 4% 8%  
52 4% 4%  
53 0.4% 0.8%  
54 0.2% 0.4%  
55 0.1% 0.2%  
56 0% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100% Last Result
39 0.4% 99.9%  
40 0.9% 99.4%  
41 3% 98.6%  
42 6% 96%  
43 8% 90%  
44 24% 82%  
45 24% 58% Median
46 7% 35% Majority
47 15% 28%  
48 5% 13%  
49 5% 8%  
50 0.8% 2%  
51 0.8% 1.5%  
52 0.6% 0.6%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra – Stranka Alenke Bratušek

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.3% 99.9%  
38 1.0% 99.6%  
39 2% 98.6%  
40 23% 97%  
41 6% 74% Median
42 6% 68%  
43 20% 62%  
44 13% 42%  
45 9% 29%  
46 10% 20% Majority
47 5% 10%  
48 3% 6%  
49 2% 3%  
50 0.6% 0.9% Last Result
51 0.2% 0.3%  
52 0% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.4% 99.9%  
38 1.0% 99.5%  
39 2% 98%  
40 23% 97%  
41 6% 74% Median
42 6% 68%  
43 20% 61%  
44 13% 41%  
45 9% 29% Last Result
46 10% 20% Majority
47 5% 10%  
48 3% 6%  
49 2% 3%  
50 0.6% 0.8%  
51 0.2% 0.3%  
52 0% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100% Last Result
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.7% 99.9%  
38 1.4% 99.2%  
39 2% 98%  
40 24% 96%  
41 6% 72% Median
42 7% 65%  
43 20% 58%  
44 13% 38%  
45 8% 25%  
46 8% 17% Majority
47 4% 8%  
48 2% 4%  
49 2% 2%  
50 0.5% 0.7%  
51 0.2% 0.2%  
52 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100% Last Result
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.2% 99.9%  
36 2% 99.7%  
37 3% 98%  
38 4% 95%  
39 8% 91%  
40 35% 83%  
41 8% 48% Median
42 9% 40%  
43 13% 31%  
44 8% 17%  
45 5% 10%  
46 4% 4% Majority
47 0.6% 0.8%  
48 0.1% 0.2%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100%  
35 0.1% 99.9%  
36 2% 99.8%  
37 2% 98%  
38 4% 96%  
39 7% 92%  
40 33% 85% Last Result
41 8% 52% Median
42 9% 44%  
43 14% 35%  
44 9% 21%  
45 6% 12%  
46 5% 6% Majority
47 1.0% 1.3%  
48 0.1% 0.3%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra – Stranka Alenke Bratušek

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.2% 99.9%  
32 1.0% 99.7%  
33 12% 98.8%  
34 9% 86%  
35 10% 78% Median
36 6% 67%  
37 14% 61%  
38 20% 48%  
39 10% 28%  
40 8% 18%  
41 4% 10%  
42 3% 6%  
43 2% 3% Last Result
44 0.5% 0.7%  
45 0.1% 0.2%  
46 0.1% 0.1% Majority
47 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.2% 99.9%  
32 1.0% 99.7%  
33 13% 98.7%  
34 9% 86%  
35 11% 77% Median
36 6% 67%  
37 14% 61%  
38 20% 47% Last Result
39 10% 28%  
40 8% 17%  
41 4% 9%  
42 3% 6%  
43 2% 3%  
44 0.5% 0.7%  
45 0.1% 0.2%  
46 0% 0.1% Majority
47 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0% 100%  
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.5% 99.9%  
32 1.3% 99.3%  
33 13% 98%  
34 10% 85%  
35 11% 75% Median
36 6% 64%  
37 14% 58%  
38 20% 44%  
39 10% 24%  
40 7% 14%  
41 3% 7%  
42 2% 4%  
43 2% 2%  
44 0.3% 0.4%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0% Majority

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0.2% 100%  
30 0.5% 99.8%  
31 4% 99.3%  
32 3% 95%  
33 21% 93%  
34 16% 72%  
35 19% 56% Median
36 9% 37%  
37 9% 28%  
38 11% 19%  
39 5% 8%  
40 2% 3%  
41 0.4% 0.5%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.2% 100%  
30 0.4% 99.8%  
31 3% 99.5%  
32 2% 96%  
33 20% 94% Last Result
34 14% 74%  
35 19% 60% Median
36 9% 41%  
37 10% 32%  
38 13% 23%  
39 6% 10%  
40 3% 4%  
41 0.9% 1.2%  
42 0.2% 0.3%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 0.5% 99.9%  
15 2% 99.4%  
16 5% 98%  
17 25% 92% Median
18 10% 67%  
19 21% 57%  
20 11% 36%  
21 9% 24%  
22 7% 16%  
23 5% 8%  
24 1.3% 3%  
25 1.4% 2% Last Result
26 0.3% 0.5%  
27 0.2% 0.2%  
28 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations