Opinion Poll by Mediana for POPTV, 1–26 July 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 24.9% 26.5% 24.5–28.7% 23.9–29.3% 23.4–29.9% 22.5–30.9%
Socialni demokrati 9.9% 18.8% 17.1–20.8% 16.6–21.4% 16.1–21.9% 15.3–22.8%
Levica 9.3% 14.2% 12.7–16.0% 12.2–16.5% 11.9–17.0% 11.1–17.9%
Lista Marjana Šarca 12.6% 12.3% 10.8–14.0% 10.4–14.5% 10.1–14.9% 9.4–15.7%
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7.2% 5.9% 4.9–7.1% 4.6–7.5% 4.4–7.8% 3.9–8.5%
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5.1% 3.8% 3.0–4.8% 2.8–5.2% 2.6–5.4% 2.3–6.0%
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 4.9% 3.5% 2.7–4.5% 2.5–4.8% 2.4–5.1% 2.1–5.7%
Slovenska ljudska stranka 2.6% 3.5% 2.7–4.5% 2.5–4.8% 2.4–5.1% 2.1–5.7%
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4.2% 3.2% 2.5–4.2% 2.3–4.5% 2.1–4.8% 1.8–5.3%
Stranka modernega centra 9.7% 0.6% 0.3–1.1% 0.3–1.3% 0.2–1.4% 0.1–1.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 25 26 24–29 23–29 23–30 22–31
Socialni demokrati 10 19 17–21 16–21 15–21 15–23
Levica 9 14 12–15 12–16 11–17 10–18
Lista Marjana Šarca 13 12 10–14 10–15 10–15 9–15
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7 6 4–6 4–7 4–8 0–8
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5 0 0–4 0–4 0–5 0–5
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 5 0 0–4 0–4 0–5 0–5
Slovenska ljudska stranka 0 0 0–4 0–4 0–5 0–5
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4 0 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–5
Stranka modernega centra 10 0 0 0 0 0

Slovenska demokratska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.4% 99.9%  
22 1.3% 99.5%  
23 5% 98%  
24 13% 93%  
25 20% 80% Last Result
26 24% 60% Median
27 18% 36%  
28 7% 18%  
29 6% 10%  
30 3% 5%  
31 2% 2%  
32 0.3% 0.4%  
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100% Last Result
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0.3% 100%  
15 3% 99.7%  
16 6% 97%  
17 15% 91%  
18 17% 76%  
19 20% 59% Median
20 19% 39%  
21 18% 19%  
22 1.2% 2%  
23 0.4% 0.5%  
24 0% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Levica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 0.5% 100%  
11 3% 99.5%  
12 14% 96%  
13 23% 83%  
14 28% 60% Median
15 22% 32%  
16 6% 10%  
17 3% 4%  
18 0.7% 0.9%  
19 0.1% 0.2%  
20 0% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.2% 100%  
9 2% 99.8%  
10 10% 98%  
11 32% 88%  
12 25% 56% Median
13 19% 31% Last Result
14 6% 12%  
15 5% 5%  
16 0.2% 0.3%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.7% 100%  
1 0% 99.3%  
2 0% 99.3%  
3 0% 99.3%  
4 11% 99.3%  
5 25% 88%  
6 53% 63% Median
7 6% 9% Last Result
8 3% 3%  
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  

Stranka Alenke Bratušek

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 59% 100% Median
1 0% 41%  
2 0% 41%  
3 2% 41%  
4 35% 39%  
5 4% 4% Last Result
6 0.4% 0.4%  
7 0% 0%  

Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 74% 100% Median
1 0% 26%  
2 0% 26%  
3 0.7% 26%  
4 23% 26%  
5 3% 3% Last Result
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Slovenska ljudska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska ljudska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 71% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 29%  
2 0% 29%  
3 1.3% 29%  
4 25% 28%  
5 3% 3%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Slovenska nacionalna stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 87% 100% Median
1 0% 13%  
2 0% 13%  
3 2% 13%  
4 10% 11% Last Result
5 0.8% 0.9%  
6 0% 0%  

Stranka modernega centra

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka modernega centra page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 43 39 0.6% 36–42 35–43 34–44 33–46
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 50 39 0.2% 35–43 35–43 34–43 32–44
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca 38 38 0.1% 36–41 35–42 34–43 32–44
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 35 37 0.1% 35–41 34–43 32–43 31–43
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 45 37 0.1% 35–41 34–43 32–43 31–43
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 30 37 0% 33–39 32–40 32–41 30–42
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 40 37 0% 33–39 32–40 32–41 30–42
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 43 34 0% 30–37 29–37 29–38 28–39
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 28 31 0% 29–36 28–37 27–37 26–39
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 38 31 0% 29–36 28–37 27–37 26–39
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca 23 31 0% 28–33 27–34 27–36 25–36
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra 33 31 0% 28–33 27–34 27–36 25–36
Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 25 20 0% 17–23 16–25 16–25 15–26

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.2% 100%  
33 0.4% 99.8%  
34 2% 99.4%  
35 3% 97%  
36 5% 94%  
37 17% 89%  
38 22% 72% Median
39 8% 50%  
40 12% 42%  
41 15% 30%  
42 9% 16%  
43 4% 7% Last Result
44 2% 3%  
45 0.8% 1.4%  
46 0.6% 0.6% Majority
47 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.4% 99.9%  
33 0.5% 99.4%  
34 2% 99.0%  
35 7% 97%  
36 8% 90%  
37 18% 82% Median
38 10% 64%  
39 8% 54%  
40 7% 46%  
41 17% 39%  
42 10% 22%  
43 9% 12%  
44 2% 2%  
45 0.2% 0.4%  
46 0.2% 0.2% Majority
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0% Last Result

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.2% 100%  
32 0.6% 99.8%  
33 0.9% 99.3%  
34 3% 98%  
35 5% 95%  
36 10% 90%  
37 26% 80%  
38 26% 54% Last Result, Median
39 7% 28%  
40 7% 21%  
41 7% 14%  
42 3% 7%  
43 3% 4%  
44 1.1% 1.2%  
45 0.1% 0.2%  
46 0.1% 0.1% Majority
47 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0% 100%  
30 0.1% 99.9%  
31 1.0% 99.9%  
32 2% 98.9%  
33 1.4% 96%  
34 5% 95%  
35 10% 90% Last Result
36 10% 80%  
37 28% 70% Median
38 17% 42%  
39 8% 25%  
40 4% 17%  
41 6% 13%  
42 2% 7%  
43 5% 5%  
44 0.2% 0.3%  
45 0% 0.1%  
46 0.1% 0.1% Majority
47 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0% 100%  
30 0.1% 99.9%  
31 1.0% 99.9%  
32 2% 98.9%  
33 1.4% 96%  
34 5% 95%  
35 10% 90%  
36 10% 80%  
37 28% 70% Median
38 17% 42%  
39 8% 25%  
40 4% 17%  
41 6% 13%  
42 2% 7%  
43 5% 5%  
44 0.2% 0.3%  
45 0% 0.1% Last Result
46 0.1% 0.1% Majority
47 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.3% 100%  
30 0.5% 99.7% Last Result
31 1.3% 99.2%  
32 4% 98%  
33 5% 94%  
34 11% 89%  
35 13% 78%  
36 11% 65%  
37 28% 54% Median
38 11% 27%  
39 9% 15%  
40 2% 7%  
41 4% 5%  
42 0.6% 0.7%  
43 0% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.3% 100%  
30 0.5% 99.7%  
31 1.3% 99.2%  
32 4% 98%  
33 5% 94%  
34 11% 89%  
35 13% 78%  
36 11% 65%  
37 28% 54% Median
38 11% 27%  
39 9% 15%  
40 2% 7% Last Result
41 4% 5%  
42 0.6% 0.7%  
43 0% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.1% 99.9%  
27 0.3% 99.8%  
28 0.9% 99.5%  
29 4% 98.7%  
30 8% 95%  
31 18% 87% Median
32 15% 69%  
33 4% 54%  
34 6% 50%  
35 16% 44%  
36 12% 28%  
37 11% 16%  
38 3% 5%  
39 2% 2%  
40 0.1% 0.3%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0% Last Result

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.2% 100%  
26 1.0% 99.7%  
27 3% 98.7%  
28 2% 96% Last Result
29 6% 94%  
30 10% 87%  
31 30% 77% Median
32 21% 48%  
33 8% 27%  
34 5% 18%  
35 2% 13%  
36 4% 11%  
37 6% 7%  
38 1.2% 2%  
39 0.5% 0.5%  
40 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.2% 100%  
26 1.0% 99.7%  
27 3% 98.7%  
28 2% 96%  
29 6% 94%  
30 10% 87%  
31 30% 77% Median
32 21% 48%  
33 8% 27%  
34 5% 18%  
35 2% 13%  
36 4% 11%  
37 6% 7%  
38 1.2% 2% Last Result
39 0.5% 0.5%  
40 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0.2% 100%  
25 0.6% 99.7%  
26 1.3% 99.2%  
27 4% 98%  
28 11% 94%  
29 11% 83%  
30 12% 73%  
31 30% 61% Median
32 14% 31%  
33 10% 17%  
34 3% 7%  
35 1.4% 5%  
36 3% 3%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.2% 100%  
25 0.6% 99.7%  
26 1.3% 99.2%  
27 4% 98%  
28 11% 94%  
29 11% 83%  
30 12% 73%  
31 30% 61% Median
32 14% 31%  
33 10% 17% Last Result
34 3% 7%  
35 1.4% 5%  
36 3% 3%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 2% 99.9%  
16 3% 98%  
17 6% 95%  
18 14% 89%  
19 19% 75% Median
20 20% 56%  
21 20% 36%  
22 4% 16%  
23 3% 11%  
24 2% 9%  
25 5% 6% Last Result
26 1.4% 1.4%  
27 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations