Opinion Poll by Mediana for POP TV, 3–6 August 2020
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slovenska demokratska stranka | 24.9% | 30.3% | 28.2–32.6% | 27.6–33.3% | 27.1–33.8% | 26.1–34.9% |
| Socialni demokrati | 9.9% | 17.3% | 15.6–19.3% | 15.2–19.8% | 14.7–20.3% | 14.0–21.2% |
| Lista Marjana Šarca | 12.6% | 15.1% | 13.5–16.9% | 13.0–17.5% | 12.7–17.9% | 11.9–18.8% |
| Levica | 9.3% | 11.0% | 9.7–12.7% | 9.3–13.2% | 8.9–13.6% | 8.3–14.4% |
| Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati | 7.2% | 7.7% | 6.6–9.1% | 6.2–9.5% | 6.0–9.9% | 5.4–10.6% |
| Stranka Alenke Bratušek | 5.1% | 2.9% | 2.3–3.9% | 2.1–4.2% | 1.9–4.5% | 1.6–5.0% |
| Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 4.9% | 2.4% | 1.8–3.3% | 1.6–3.6% | 1.5–3.8% | 1.2–4.3% |
| Slovenska nacionalna stranka | 4.2% | 2.4% | 1.8–3.3% | 1.6–3.6% | 1.5–3.8% | 1.2–4.3% |
| Stranka modernega centra | 9.7% | 2.1% | 1.6–3.0% | 1.4–3.2% | 1.3–3.4% | 1.1–3.9% |
| Slovenska ljudska stranka | 2.6% | 1.8% | 1.3–2.6% | 1.2–2.9% | 1.1–3.1% | 0.9–3.5% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slovenska demokratska stranka | 25 | 31 | 28–33 | 28–33 | 27–34 | 26–35 |
| Socialni demokrati | 10 | 17 | 15–19 | 14–20 | 14–20 | 14–21 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca | 13 | 15 | 13–17 | 13–17 | 12–18 | 11–19 |
| Levica | 9 | 11 | 9–13 | 9–13 | 9–13 | 8–14 |
| Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati | 7 | 7 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 5–10 | 5–11 |
| Stranka Alenke Bratušek | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 |
| Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 |
| Slovenska nacionalna stranka | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 |
| Stranka modernega centra | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Slovenska ljudska stranka | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Slovenska demokratska stranka
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 0.2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 26 | 1.1% | 99.7% | |
| 27 | 3% | 98.6% | |
| 28 | 9% | 95% | |
| 29 | 17% | 86% | |
| 30 | 15% | 69% | |
| 31 | 24% | 54% | Median |
| 32 | 17% | 30% | |
| 33 | 9% | 13% | |
| 34 | 2% | 4% | |
| 35 | 1.1% | 1.3% | |
| 36 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% |
Socialni demokrati
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 14 | 5% | 99.6% | |
| 15 | 13% | 95% | |
| 16 | 17% | 82% | |
| 17 | 20% | 64% | Median |
| 18 | 20% | 45% | |
| 19 | 17% | 24% | |
| 20 | 6% | 8% | |
| 21 | 2% | 2% | |
| 22 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 12 | 3% | 99.4% | |
| 13 | 7% | 96% | Last Result |
| 14 | 21% | 89% | |
| 15 | 37% | 68% | Median |
| 16 | 17% | 31% | |
| 17 | 9% | 14% | |
| 18 | 4% | 5% | |
| 19 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 20 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% |
Levica
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 8 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 9 | 14% | 98% | Last Result |
| 10 | 22% | 84% | |
| 11 | 32% | 62% | Median |
| 12 | 15% | 30% | |
| 13 | 12% | 15% | |
| 14 | 2% | 2% | |
| 15 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 3% | 100% | |
| 6 | 22% | 97% | |
| 7 | 33% | 75% | Last Result, Median |
| 8 | 27% | 42% | |
| 9 | 12% | 15% | |
| 10 | 2% | 3% | |
| 11 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Stranka Alenke Bratušek
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 91% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 9% | |
| 2 | 0% | 9% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 9% | |
| 4 | 8% | 9% | |
| 5 | 0.9% | 0.9% | Last Result |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98.8% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 1.2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 1.2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 1.2% | |
| 4 | 1.2% | 1.2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Slovenska nacionalna stranka
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98.6% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 1.4% | |
| 2 | 0% | 1.4% | |
| 3 | 0% | 1.4% | |
| 4 | 1.4% | 1.4% | Last Result |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Stranka modernega centra
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka modernega centra page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.7% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 4 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Slovenska ljudska stranka
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska ljudska stranka page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 43 | 46 | 53% | 43–48 | 42–49 | 42–49 | 40–51 |
| Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca | 38 | 46 | 52% | 43–48 | 42–49 | 42–49 | 40–51 |
| Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra | 50 | 40 | 0.3% | 38–43 | 37–43 | 36–44 | 35–45 |
| Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 35 | 40 | 0.2% | 37–43 | 37–43 | 36–43 | 35–44 |
| Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra | 45 | 40 | 0.2% | 37–43 | 37–43 | 36–43 | 35–45 |
| Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati | 30 | 40 | 0.1% | 37–43 | 36–43 | 36–43 | 35–44 |
| Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra | 40 | 40 | 0.1% | 37–43 | 36–43 | 36–43 | 35–44 |
| Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra | 43 | 33 | 0% | 30–36 | 29–36 | 29–37 | 28–38 |
| Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 28 | 32 | 0% | 30–35 | 29–36 | 29–36 | 28–37 |
| Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra | 38 | 32 | 0% | 30–35 | 29–36 | 29–36 | 28–37 |
| Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca | 23 | 32 | 0% | 30–35 | 29–36 | 29–36 | 27–37 |
| Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra | 33 | 32 | 0% | 30–35 | 29–36 | 29–36 | 27–37 |
| Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra | 25 | 17 | 0% | 15–19 | 15–20 | 14–21 | 14–22 |
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 39 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 41 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 42 | 4% | 98% | |
| 43 | 9% | 94% | Last Result |
| 44 | 11% | 85% | |
| 45 | 21% | 74% | |
| 46 | 20% | 53% | Median, Majority |
| 47 | 21% | 33% | |
| 48 | 4% | 11% | |
| 49 | 5% | 7% | |
| 50 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 51 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 52 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% |
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 38 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 39 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 41 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 42 | 4% | 98% | |
| 43 | 9% | 94% | |
| 44 | 11% | 85% | |
| 45 | 21% | 73% | |
| 46 | 20% | 52% | Median, Majority |
| 47 | 21% | 32% | |
| 48 | 4% | 11% | |
| 49 | 5% | 6% | |
| 50 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 51 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 52 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% |
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 36 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 37 | 7% | 97% | |
| 38 | 22% | 90% | |
| 39 | 10% | 68% | Median |
| 40 | 20% | 59% | |
| 41 | 16% | 39% | |
| 42 | 8% | 23% | |
| 43 | 11% | 15% | |
| 44 | 3% | 5% | |
| 45 | 1.2% | 1.5% | |
| 46 | 0.2% | 0.3% | Majority |
| 47 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 35 | 1.0% | 99.6% | Last Result |
| 36 | 3% | 98.6% | |
| 37 | 8% | 95% | |
| 38 | 24% | 87% | |
| 39 | 11% | 64% | Median |
| 40 | 20% | 53% | |
| 41 | 16% | 33% | |
| 42 | 6% | 17% | |
| 43 | 9% | 10% | |
| 44 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 45 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 0.2% | Majority |
| 47 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% |
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 35 | 1.0% | 99.6% | |
| 36 | 3% | 98.6% | |
| 37 | 8% | 95% | |
| 38 | 24% | 87% | |
| 39 | 11% | 64% | Median |
| 40 | 20% | 53% | |
| 41 | 16% | 33% | |
| 42 | 6% | 17% | |
| 43 | 9% | 10% | |
| 44 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 45 | 0.3% | 0.5% | Last Result |
| 46 | 0.1% | 0.2% | Majority |
| 47 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% |
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 31 | 0% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 35 | 1.0% | 99.6% | |
| 36 | 4% | 98.5% | |
| 37 | 8% | 95% | |
| 38 | 24% | 87% | |
| 39 | 11% | 63% | Median |
| 40 | 20% | 52% | |
| 41 | 16% | 32% | |
| 42 | 6% | 16% | |
| 43 | 9% | 10% | |
| 44 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 45 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 47 | 0% | 0% |
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 35 | 1.0% | 99.6% | |
| 36 | 4% | 98.5% | |
| 37 | 8% | 95% | |
| 38 | 24% | 87% | |
| 39 | 11% | 63% | Median |
| 40 | 20% | 52% | Last Result |
| 41 | 16% | 32% | |
| 42 | 6% | 17% | |
| 43 | 9% | 10% | |
| 44 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 45 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 47 | 0% | 0% |
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 28 | 1.0% | 99.8% | |
| 29 | 4% | 98.7% | |
| 30 | 15% | 95% | |
| 31 | 9% | 79% | |
| 32 | 19% | 70% | Median |
| 33 | 15% | 51% | |
| 34 | 19% | 37% | |
| 35 | 7% | 18% | |
| 36 | 6% | 11% | |
| 37 | 3% | 4% | |
| 38 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 39 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 28 | 2% | 99.5% | Last Result |
| 29 | 5% | 98% | |
| 30 | 17% | 93% | |
| 31 | 10% | 76% | |
| 32 | 20% | 66% | Median |
| 33 | 15% | 46% | |
| 34 | 19% | 31% | |
| 35 | 6% | 12% | |
| 36 | 4% | 6% | |
| 37 | 1.2% | 1.5% | |
| 38 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% |
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 28 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 29 | 5% | 98% | |
| 30 | 17% | 93% | |
| 31 | 10% | 76% | |
| 32 | 20% | 66% | Median |
| 33 | 15% | 46% | |
| 34 | 19% | 31% | |
| 35 | 6% | 12% | |
| 36 | 4% | 6% | |
| 37 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 38 | 0.2% | 0.3% | Last Result |
| 39 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% |
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 28 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 29 | 6% | 98% | |
| 30 | 17% | 92% | |
| 31 | 10% | 75% | |
| 32 | 20% | 65% | Median |
| 33 | 15% | 45% | |
| 34 | 18% | 30% | |
| 35 | 6% | 11% | |
| 36 | 4% | 5% | |
| 37 | 1.1% | 1.3% | |
| 38 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% |
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 28 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 29 | 5% | 98% | |
| 30 | 17% | 92% | |
| 31 | 10% | 75% | |
| 32 | 20% | 65% | Median |
| 33 | 15% | 45% | Last Result |
| 34 | 18% | 30% | |
| 35 | 6% | 12% | |
| 36 | 4% | 5% | |
| 37 | 1.2% | 1.4% | |
| 38 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% |
Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 14 | 5% | 99.7% | |
| 15 | 13% | 95% | |
| 16 | 17% | 82% | |
| 17 | 19% | 65% | Median |
| 18 | 20% | 46% | |
| 19 | 17% | 25% | |
| 20 | 6% | 8% | |
| 21 | 2% | 3% | |
| 22 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Mediana
- Commissioner(s): POP TV
- Fieldwork period: 3–6 August 2020
Calculations
- Sample size: 715
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.81%