Opinion Poll by Mediana for POPTV, 1–31 August 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 24.9% 27.7% 25.7–30.0% 25.1–30.6% 24.6–31.1% 23.6–32.2%
Lista Marjana Šarca 12.6% 14.6% 13.0–16.4% 12.5–16.9% 12.2–17.3% 11.4–18.3%
Socialni demokrati 9.9% 14.6% 13.0–16.4% 12.5–16.9% 12.2–17.3% 11.4–18.3%
Levica 9.3% 12.2% 10.7–13.9% 10.3–14.4% 10.0–14.8% 9.3–15.7%
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7.2% 6.9% 5.8–8.2% 5.5–8.6% 5.2–9.0% 4.8–9.7%
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 4.9% 5.6% 4.6–6.9% 4.4–7.2% 4.1–7.5% 3.7–8.2%
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4.2% 4.6% 3.7–5.8% 3.5–6.1% 3.3–6.4% 2.9–7.0%
Slovenska ljudska stranka 2.6% 2.9% 2.3–3.9% 2.1–4.2% 1.9–4.5% 1.6–5.0%
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5.1% 2.7% 2.0–3.6% 1.9–3.9% 1.7–4.1% 1.4–4.6%
Stranka modernega centra 9.7% 1.7% 1.2–2.5% 1.1–2.7% 1.0–2.9% 0.8–3.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 25 27 25–30 24–30 24–30 22–31
Lista Marjana Šarca 13 14 12–16 12–17 11–17 11–18
Socialni demokrati 10 14 12–16 12–16 11–17 11–18
Levica 9 12 10–13 10–13 9–14 9–15
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7 6 5–7 5–8 4–8 4–9
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 5 5 4–6 4–7 4–7 0–8
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4 4 0–5 0–5 0–6 0–6
Slovenska ljudska stranka 0 0 0 0 0–4 0–4
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5 0 0 0–3 0–4 0–4
Stranka modernega centra 10 0 0 0 0 0

Slovenska demokratska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.6% 100%  
23 2% 99.4%  
24 4% 98%  
25 14% 94% Last Result
26 16% 79%  
27 21% 64% Median
28 20% 43%  
29 9% 23%  
30 12% 14%  
31 2% 2%  
32 0.2% 0.4%  
33 0.1% 0.2%  
34 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.4% 100%  
11 2% 99.6%  
12 19% 97%  
13 15% 79% Last Result
14 34% 64% Median
15 17% 30%  
16 8% 13%  
17 5% 5%  
18 0.5% 0.6%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.3% 100% Last Result
11 2% 99.7%  
12 12% 97%  
13 23% 85%  
14 34% 62% Median
15 12% 29%  
16 13% 17%  
17 3% 4%  
18 0.8% 0.8%  
19 0% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Levica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.4% 100%  
9 3% 99.6% Last Result
10 12% 96%  
11 23% 84%  
12 25% 61% Median
13 32% 37%  
14 2% 5%  
15 2% 2%  
16 0.4% 0.4%  
17 0% 0%  

Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 3% 100%  
5 14% 97%  
6 44% 84% Median
7 29% 39% Last Result
8 8% 10%  
9 2% 2%  
10 0.3% 0.3%  
11 0% 0%  

Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 0% 98%  
2 0% 98%  
3 0.1% 98%  
4 23% 98%  
5 26% 75% Last Result, Median
6 41% 50%  
7 7% 8%  
8 1.1% 1.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Slovenska nacionalna stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 33% 100%  
1 0% 67%  
2 0% 67%  
3 0.6% 67%  
4 33% 67% Last Result, Median
5 29% 33%  
6 5% 5%  
7 0.2% 0.2%  
8 0% 0%  

Slovenska ljudska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska ljudska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 96% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 4%  
2 0% 4%  
3 0.4% 4%  
4 4% 4%  
5 0.3% 0.3%  
6 0% 0%  

Stranka Alenke Bratušek

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 95% 100% Median
1 0% 5%  
2 0% 5%  
3 2% 5%  
4 4% 4%  
5 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
6 0% 0%  

Stranka modernega centra

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka modernega centra page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 43 46 58% 44–50 43–50 42–51 40–51
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca 38 41 3% 39–44 38–44 37–46 36–46
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 35 40 0.1% 37–43 36–43 36–44 34–45
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra 50 40 0.1% 37–43 36–43 36–44 34–45
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 45 40 0.1% 37–43 36–43 36–44 34–45
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 30 34 0% 31–37 31–38 31–38 29–40
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 40 34 0% 31–37 31–38 31–38 29–40
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 28 33 0% 31–36 30–37 29–37 28–39
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra 43 34 0% 31–36 30–37 29–37 28–39
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 38 33 0% 31–36 30–37 29–37 28–39
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati 23 28 0% 25–30 25–31 25–32 23–34
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 33 28 0% 25–30 25–31 25–32 23–34
Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 25 19 0% 17–22 17–22 16–22 14–24

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100%  
39 0.1% 99.9%  
40 0.4% 99.8%  
41 1.0% 99.5%  
42 2% 98%  
43 5% 96% Last Result
44 13% 91%  
45 20% 78%  
46 11% 58% Median, Majority
47 15% 47%  
48 15% 32%  
49 5% 17%  
50 9% 12%  
51 2% 3%  
52 0.2% 0.3%  
53 0% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.4% 99.9%  
36 1.0% 99.6%  
37 2% 98.6%  
38 7% 97% Last Result
39 19% 90%  
40 15% 71%  
41 14% 56% Median
42 15% 42%  
43 13% 28%  
44 10% 14%  
45 1.5% 5%  
46 3% 3% Majority
47 0.2% 0.3%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.3% 99.9%  
34 0.6% 99.6%  
35 1.3% 99.0% Last Result
36 4% 98%  
37 18% 94%  
38 11% 76%  
39 13% 65% Median
40 24% 51%  
41 8% 27%  
42 9% 20%  
43 7% 11%  
44 2% 3%  
45 1.2% 1.3%  
46 0.1% 0.1% Majority
47 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.2% 99.9%  
34 0.6% 99.7%  
35 1.2% 99.1%  
36 4% 98%  
37 16% 94%  
38 9% 78%  
39 13% 69% Median
40 24% 56%  
41 11% 32%  
42 10% 21%  
43 8% 12%  
44 2% 4%  
45 1.5% 2%  
46 0.1% 0.1% Majority
47 0% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0% Last Result

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.3% 99.9%  
34 0.6% 99.6%  
35 1.3% 99.0%  
36 4% 98%  
37 18% 94%  
38 11% 76%  
39 13% 65% Median
40 24% 51%  
41 8% 27%  
42 9% 20%  
43 7% 11%  
44 2% 3%  
45 1.2% 1.3% Last Result
46 0.1% 0.1% Majority
47 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.6% 99.9%  
30 1.4% 99.2% Last Result
31 11% 98%  
32 5% 87%  
33 20% 81%  
34 24% 61% Median
35 11% 37%  
36 9% 27%  
37 11% 17%  
38 4% 6%  
39 1.3% 2%  
40 0.8% 0.9%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.6% 99.9%  
30 1.4% 99.2%  
31 11% 98%  
32 5% 87%  
33 20% 81%  
34 24% 61% Median
35 11% 37%  
36 9% 27%  
37 11% 17%  
38 4% 6%  
39 1.3% 2%  
40 0.8% 0.9% Last Result
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.2% 99.9%  
28 0.5% 99.6% Last Result
29 2% 99.2%  
30 7% 97%  
31 17% 90%  
32 13% 73%  
33 14% 60% Median
34 22% 45%  
35 8% 24%  
36 10% 15%  
37 4% 5%  
38 1.0% 2%  
39 0.5% 0.6%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.2% 99.9%  
28 0.4% 99.7%  
29 2% 99.3%  
30 7% 97%  
31 16% 91%  
32 10% 74%  
33 14% 64% Median
34 22% 50%  
35 10% 29%  
36 12% 18%  
37 4% 6%  
38 1.4% 2%  
39 0.7% 0.8%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0% Last Result

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.2% 99.9%  
28 0.5% 99.6%  
29 2% 99.2%  
30 7% 97%  
31 17% 90%  
32 13% 73%  
33 14% 60% Median
34 22% 45%  
35 8% 24%  
36 10% 16%  
37 4% 5%  
38 1.0% 2% Last Result
39 0.5% 0.6%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.4% 99.9% Last Result
24 1.2% 99.5%  
25 12% 98%  
26 14% 86%  
27 15% 72%  
28 24% 57% Median
29 10% 33%  
30 14% 23%  
31 5% 9%  
32 3% 4%  
33 0.4% 1.0%  
34 0.5% 0.5%  
35 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.4% 99.9%  
24 1.2% 99.5%  
25 12% 98%  
26 14% 86%  
27 15% 72%  
28 24% 57% Median
29 10% 33%  
30 14% 23%  
31 5% 9%  
32 3% 4%  
33 0.4% 1.0% Last Result
34 0.5% 0.5%  
35 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0% 100%  
13 0.4% 99.9%  
14 0.5% 99.6%  
15 0.6% 99.0%  
16 3% 98%  
17 9% 95%  
18 21% 86%  
19 20% 65% Median
20 24% 45%  
21 10% 21%  
22 9% 11%  
23 1.3% 2%  
24 0.6% 0.6%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations