Opinion Poll by Parsifal for Nova 24TV, 1 June–18 September 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 24.9% 35.0% 32.7–37.3% 32.1–38.0% 31.5–38.6% 30.4–39.7%
Socialni demokrati 9.9% 17.7% 15.9–19.6% 15.5–20.2% 15.0–20.7% 14.2–21.7%
Lista Marjana Šarca 12.6% 15.3% 13.6–17.1% 13.2–17.7% 12.8–18.1% 12.0–19.1%
Levica 9.3% 8.1% 6.9–9.6% 6.6–10.0% 6.3–10.4% 5.8–11.1%
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 4.9% 5.6% 4.6–6.8% 4.3–7.2% 4.1–7.5% 3.7–8.2%
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7.2% 4.6% 3.7–5.7% 3.5–6.1% 3.2–6.4% 2.9–7.0%
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5.1% 3.7% 2.9–4.8% 2.7–5.1% 2.5–5.4% 2.2–6.0%
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4.2% 3.6% 2.8–4.6% 2.6–4.9% 2.4–5.2% 2.1–5.8%
Slovenska ljudska stranka 2.6% 2.0% 1.5–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.2–3.3% 1.0–3.8%
Stranka modernega centra 9.7% 0.9% 0.5–1.5% 0.5–1.7% 0.4–1.9% 0.3–2.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 25 35 32–38 31–38 31–38 30–41
Socialni demokrati 10 17 15–19 15–20 14–21 14–22
Lista Marjana Šarca 13 15 13–17 13–18 12–18 11–19
Levica 9 8 6–9 6–9 6–10 5–11
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 5 5 4–7 4–7 4–7 0–8
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7 4 0–5 0–6 0–6 0–6
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5 0 0–4 0–5 0–5 0–5
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4 0 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–5
Slovenska ljudska stranka 0 0 0 0 0 0
Stranka modernega centra 10 0 0 0 0 0

Slovenska demokratska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0% 100% Last Result
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.3% 99.9%  
30 1.3% 99.6%  
31 4% 98%  
32 9% 94%  
33 12% 85%  
34 9% 73%  
35 20% 63% Median
36 23% 43%  
37 6% 20%  
38 11% 13%  
39 1.1% 2%  
40 0.5% 1.1%  
41 0.4% 0.6%  
42 0.2% 0.2%  
43 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100% Last Result
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0.2% 100%  
14 2% 99.8%  
15 8% 97%  
16 20% 89%  
17 23% 69% Median
18 23% 47%  
19 14% 23%  
20 7% 10%  
21 2% 3%  
22 0.7% 0.9%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 1.1% 99.9%  
12 2% 98.8%  
13 20% 97% Last Result
14 20% 77%  
15 16% 57% Median
16 29% 41%  
17 7% 12%  
18 4% 5%  
19 0.5% 0.7%  
20 0.2% 0.2%  
21 0% 0%  

Levica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.7% 100%  
6 9% 99.3%  
7 37% 90%  
8 32% 53% Median
9 16% 20% Last Result
10 4% 5%  
11 0.5% 0.6%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 0% 98%  
2 0% 98%  
3 0.4% 98%  
4 12% 98%  
5 51% 85% Last Result, Median
6 21% 34%  
7 13% 13%  
8 0.4% 0.5%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 18% 100%  
1 0% 82%  
2 0% 82%  
3 2% 82%  
4 44% 80% Median
5 31% 36%  
6 5% 5%  
7 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
8 0% 0%  

Stranka Alenke Bratušek

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 70% 100% Median
1 0% 30%  
2 0% 30%  
3 1.3% 30%  
4 22% 29%  
5 6% 7% Last Result
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0%  

Slovenska nacionalna stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 62% 100% Median
1 0% 38%  
2 0% 38%  
3 4% 38%  
4 32% 34% Last Result
5 2% 2%  
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0%  

Slovenska ljudska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska ljudska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.2%  
2 0% 0.2%  
3 0% 0.2%  
4 0.2% 0.2%  
5 0% 0%  

Stranka modernega centra

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka modernega centra page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 43 56 100% 51–58 50–58 49–60 49–62
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca 38 50 92% 46–52 45–53 45–54 44–56
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra 50 42 14% 38–46 38–47 37–48 36–49
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 35 41 5% 38–45 37–46 37–46 34–47
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 45 41 5% 38–45 37–46 37–46 34–47
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra 43 39 0.5% 35–43 34–44 34–44 32–46
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 28 37 0% 34–40 34–41 33–42 31–43
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 38 37 0% 34–40 34–41 33–42 31–43
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 30 36 0% 33–39 32–40 32–41 29–42
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 40 36 0% 33–39 32–40 32–41 29–42
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca 23 32 0% 30–35 29–36 29–37 27–38
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra 33 32 0% 30–35 29–36 29–37 27–38
Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 25 23 0% 20–25 19–26 19–26 17–27

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0% 100% Last Result
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0.1% 100% Majority
47 0.1% 99.9%  
48 0.3% 99.8%  
49 2% 99.5%  
50 4% 97%  
51 6% 93%  
52 7% 87%  
53 9% 80%  
54 8% 71%  
55 10% 63% Median
56 16% 53%  
57 18% 37%  
58 14% 19%  
59 2% 5%  
60 1.2% 3%  
61 1.1% 2%  
62 0.6% 0.7%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100% Last Result
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.4% 99.9%  
44 1.3% 99.5%  
45 6% 98%  
46 4% 92% Majority
47 8% 88%  
48 8% 80%  
49 11% 72%  
50 14% 61% Median
51 16% 47%  
52 23% 31%  
53 3% 7%  
54 2% 4%  
55 1.0% 2%  
56 0.7% 1.2%  
57 0.3% 0.5%  
58 0% 0.2%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 99.9%  
35 0.2% 99.9%  
36 0.5% 99.7%  
37 3% 99.3%  
38 7% 96%  
39 8% 89%  
40 3% 81%  
41 13% 78% Median
42 19% 66%  
43 8% 46%  
44 8% 38%  
45 16% 30%  
46 6% 14% Majority
47 2% 7%  
48 4% 5%  
49 1.0% 1.4%  
50 0.1% 0.4% Last Result
51 0.3% 0.3%  
52 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.1% 99.9%  
34 0.5% 99.8%  
35 0.6% 99.3% Last Result
36 1.2% 98.7%  
37 4% 98%  
38 13% 93%  
39 12% 80%  
40 5% 68%  
41 18% 64% Median
42 16% 46%  
43 5% 30%  
44 9% 25%  
45 11% 16%  
46 3% 5% Majority
47 2% 2%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.1% 99.9%  
34 0.5% 99.8%  
35 0.6% 99.3%  
36 1.2% 98.7%  
37 4% 98%  
38 13% 93%  
39 12% 80%  
40 5% 68%  
41 18% 64% Median
42 16% 46%  
43 5% 30%  
44 9% 25%  
45 11% 16% Last Result
46 3% 5% Majority
47 2% 2%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.2% 100%  
32 0.3% 99.8%  
33 1.4% 99.5%  
34 3% 98%  
35 5% 95%  
36 4% 90%  
37 21% 86% Median
38 13% 65%  
39 13% 52%  
40 15% 39%  
41 9% 24%  
42 4% 15%  
43 4% 11% Last Result
44 5% 7%  
45 2% 2%  
46 0.2% 0.5% Majority
47 0.3% 0.3%  
48 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0% 100%  
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.6% 99.9%  
32 0.9% 99.3%  
33 3% 98%  
34 6% 96%  
35 10% 89%  
36 6% 80%  
37 27% 73% Median
38 12% 46%  
39 11% 35%  
40 15% 24%  
41 4% 8%  
42 2% 4%  
43 2% 2%  
44 0.2% 0.4%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0% Majority

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.6% 99.9%  
32 0.9% 99.3%  
33 3% 98%  
34 6% 96%  
35 10% 89%  
36 6% 80%  
37 27% 73% Median
38 12% 46% Last Result
39 11% 35%  
40 15% 24%  
41 4% 8%  
42 2% 4%  
43 2% 2%  
44 0.2% 0.4%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0% Majority

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0% 100%  
28 0.1% 99.9%  
29 0.4% 99.9%  
30 0.7% 99.5% Last Result
31 1.0% 98.8%  
32 7% 98%  
33 10% 91%  
34 12% 80%  
35 7% 69%  
36 18% 62% Median
37 16% 44%  
38 12% 28%  
39 10% 17%  
40 3% 6%  
41 3% 4%  
42 0.7% 0.9%  
43 0.2% 0.2%  
44 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0% 100%  
28 0.1% 99.9%  
29 0.4% 99.9%  
30 0.7% 99.5%  
31 1.0% 98.8%  
32 7% 98%  
33 10% 91%  
34 12% 80%  
35 7% 69%  
36 18% 62% Median
37 16% 44%  
38 12% 28%  
39 10% 17%  
40 3% 6% Last Result
41 3% 4%  
42 0.7% 0.9%  
43 0.2% 0.2%  
44 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0.3% 100%  
26 0.1% 99.7%  
27 0.8% 99.6%  
28 1.1% 98.8%  
29 7% 98%  
30 10% 90%  
31 9% 80%  
32 30% 71% Median
33 15% 42%  
34 14% 27%  
35 7% 13%  
36 3% 6%  
37 2% 3%  
38 0.5% 0.8%  
39 0.3% 0.3%  
40 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.3% 100%  
26 0.1% 99.7%  
27 0.8% 99.6%  
28 1.1% 98.8%  
29 7% 98%  
30 10% 90%  
31 9% 80%  
32 30% 71% Median
33 15% 42% Last Result
34 14% 27%  
35 7% 13%  
36 3% 6%  
37 2% 3%  
38 0.5% 0.8%  
39 0.3% 0.3%  
40 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 0.1% 99.9%  
17 0.6% 99.8%  
18 2% 99.2%  
19 3% 98%  
20 7% 95%  
21 15% 87%  
22 15% 72% Median
23 20% 57%  
24 23% 37%  
25 9% 14% Last Result
26 4% 6%  
27 1.1% 2%  
28 0.4% 0.5%  
29 0% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations