Opinion Poll by Mediana for POP TV, 1–8 October 2020
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions

Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slovenska demokratska stranka | 24.9% | 29.4% | 27.2–31.6% | 26.6–32.3% | 26.1–32.8% | 25.1–33.9% |
| Lista Marjana Šarca | 12.6% | 16.3% | 14.6–18.2% | 14.2–18.7% | 13.8–19.2% | 13.0–20.1% |
| Socialni demokrati | 9.9% | 14.6% | 13.0–16.4% | 12.6–16.9% | 12.2–17.4% | 11.5–18.3% |
| Levica | 9.3% | 12.4% | 10.9–14.1% | 10.5–14.6% | 10.1–15.0% | 9.5–15.9% |
| Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati | 7.2% | 7.7% | 6.6–9.2% | 6.2–9.6% | 6.0–9.9% | 5.5–10.7% |
| Stranka Alenke Bratušek | 5.1% | 4.5% | 3.6–5.7% | 3.4–6.0% | 3.2–6.3% | 2.8–6.9% |
| Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 4.9% | 4.4% | 3.5–5.5% | 3.3–5.8% | 3.1–6.1% | 2.7–6.7% |
| Slovenska ljudska stranka | 2.6% | 2.2% | 1.7–3.1% | 1.5–3.4% | 1.4–3.6% | 1.2–4.1% |
| Slovenska nacionalna stranka | 4.2% | 2.0% | 1.4–2.8% | 1.3–3.1% | 1.2–3.3% | 1.0–3.7% |
| Stranka modernega centra | 9.7% | 1.1% | 0.8–1.8% | 0.7–2.0% | 0.6–2.2% | 0.4–2.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats


Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slovenska demokratska stranka | 25 | 28 | 26–30 | 26–31 | 25–32 | 24–33 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca | 13 | 16 | 14–17 | 13–18 | 13–18 | 12–20 |
| Socialni demokrati | 10 | 14 | 12–16 | 12–17 | 11–17 | 10–18 |
| Levica | 9 | 12 | 10–13 | 10–14 | 9–14 | 9–15 |
| Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati | 7 | 7 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 5–10 | 5–10 |
| Stranka Alenke Bratušek | 5 | 4 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–6 | 0–6 |
| Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 5 | 4 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–6 |
| Slovenska ljudska stranka | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–3 |
| Slovenska nacionalna stranka | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Stranka modernega centra | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Slovenska demokratska stranka
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0.8% | 99.8% | |
| 25 | 4% | 99.0% | Last Result |
| 26 | 14% | 95% | |
| 27 | 14% | 81% | |
| 28 | 19% | 67% | Median |
| 29 | 26% | 49% | |
| 30 | 14% | 22% | |
| 31 | 6% | 9% | |
| 32 | 2% | 3% | |
| 33 | 0.8% | 1.2% | |
| 34 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.8% | 99.9% | |
| 13 | 4% | 99.1% | Last Result |
| 14 | 24% | 95% | |
| 15 | 13% | 71% | |
| 16 | 34% | 57% | Median |
| 17 | 16% | 24% | |
| 18 | 6% | 8% | |
| 19 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 20 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 21 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Socialni demokrati
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0.6% | 100% | Last Result |
| 11 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 12 | 15% | 97% | |
| 13 | 20% | 82% | |
| 14 | 30% | 62% | Median |
| 15 | 17% | 32% | |
| 16 | 6% | 15% | |
| 17 | 8% | 8% | |
| 18 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 19 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Levica
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 9 | 2% | 99.6% | Last Result |
| 10 | 15% | 97% | |
| 11 | 19% | 83% | |
| 12 | 33% | 64% | Median |
| 13 | 23% | 31% | |
| 14 | 6% | 8% | |
| 15 | 2% | 2% | |
| 16 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 5 | 3% | 99.8% | |
| 6 | 23% | 97% | |
| 7 | 39% | 73% | Last Result, Median |
| 8 | 23% | 34% | |
| 9 | 9% | 11% | |
| 10 | 2% | 3% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Stranka Alenke Bratušek
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 26% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 74% | |
| 2 | 0% | 74% | |
| 3 | 7% | 74% | |
| 4 | 41% | 67% | Median |
| 5 | 24% | 26% | Last Result |
| 6 | 3% | 3% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 29% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 71% | |
| 2 | 0% | 71% | |
| 3 | 5% | 71% | |
| 4 | 46% | 67% | Median |
| 5 | 18% | 20% | Last Result |
| 6 | 2% | 2% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Slovenska ljudska stranka
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska ljudska stranka page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.4% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 3 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 4 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Slovenska nacionalna stranka
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Stranka modernega centra
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka modernega centra page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions

Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 43 | 47 | 75% | 45–50 | 43–51 | 42–51 | 41–53 |
| Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca | 38 | 44 | 23% | 42–46 | 41–47 | 40–48 | 39–50 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra | 50 | 43 | 14% | 40–46 | 39–47 | 39–47 | 37–48 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 35 | 40 | 0.4% | 36–43 | 36–43 | 35–44 | 34–45 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra | 45 | 40 | 0.4% | 36–43 | 36–43 | 35–44 | 34–45 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati | 30 | 37 | 0% | 33–40 | 32–41 | 32–41 | 32–43 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra | 40 | 37 | 0% | 33–40 | 32–41 | 32–41 | 32–43 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra | 43 | 36 | 0% | 33–39 | 32–39 | 32–40 | 29–41 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 28 | 33 | 0% | 30–36 | 29–36 | 28–37 | 27–38 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra | 38 | 33 | 0% | 30–36 | 29–36 | 28–37 | 27–38 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati | 23 | 30 | 0% | 26–33 | 26–33 | 26–33 | 25–35 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra | 33 | 30 | 0% | 26–33 | 26–33 | 26–33 | 25–35 |
| Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra | 25 | 17 | 0% | 14–19 | 13–20 | 13–21 | 12–22 |
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 41 | 1.0% | 99.6% | |
| 42 | 3% | 98.6% | |
| 43 | 2% | 96% | Last Result |
| 44 | 2% | 94% | |
| 45 | 16% | 91% | |
| 46 | 19% | 75% | Majority |
| 47 | 24% | 56% | |
| 48 | 9% | 32% | Median |
| 49 | 12% | 23% | |
| 50 | 5% | 11% | |
| 51 | 3% | 5% | |
| 52 | 2% | 2% | |
| 53 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 54 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% |
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 37 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0.2% | 99.8% | Last Result |
| 39 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 40 | 4% | 99.0% | |
| 41 | 5% | 95% | |
| 42 | 19% | 90% | |
| 43 | 19% | 71% | |
| 44 | 13% | 52% | Median |
| 45 | 16% | 39% | |
| 46 | 15% | 23% | Majority |
| 47 | 4% | 7% | |
| 48 | 2% | 3% | |
| 49 | 0.8% | 1.3% | |
| 50 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 51 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 0% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 37 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 38 | 0.7% | 99.1% | |
| 39 | 4% | 98% | |
| 40 | 5% | 94% | |
| 41 | 20% | 89% | |
| 42 | 15% | 69% | |
| 43 | 14% | 55% | |
| 44 | 14% | 41% | |
| 45 | 13% | 27% | Median |
| 46 | 9% | 14% | Majority |
| 47 | 4% | 5% | |
| 48 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 49 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 50 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 51 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 34 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 35 | 2% | 99.2% | Last Result |
| 36 | 10% | 97% | |
| 37 | 7% | 87% | |
| 38 | 13% | 81% | |
| 39 | 11% | 68% | |
| 40 | 10% | 57% | |
| 41 | 28% | 47% | Median |
| 42 | 6% | 19% | |
| 43 | 9% | 13% | |
| 44 | 3% | 5% | |
| 45 | 0.8% | 1.2% | |
| 46 | 0.2% | 0.4% | Majority |
| 47 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 34 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 35 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 36 | 10% | 97% | |
| 37 | 7% | 87% | |
| 38 | 13% | 81% | |
| 39 | 11% | 68% | |
| 40 | 10% | 57% | |
| 41 | 28% | 47% | Median |
| 42 | 6% | 19% | |
| 43 | 9% | 13% | |
| 44 | 3% | 5% | |
| 45 | 0.8% | 1.2% | Last Result |
| 46 | 0.2% | 0.4% | Majority |
| 47 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 31 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 32 | 8% | 99.8% | |
| 33 | 5% | 92% | |
| 34 | 7% | 87% | |
| 35 | 6% | 79% | |
| 36 | 14% | 73% | |
| 37 | 25% | 59% | Median |
| 38 | 10% | 34% | |
| 39 | 12% | 25% | |
| 40 | 5% | 13% | |
| 41 | 5% | 7% | |
| 42 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 43 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 44 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 0% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 32 | 8% | 99.8% | |
| 33 | 5% | 92% | |
| 34 | 7% | 87% | |
| 35 | 6% | 79% | |
| 36 | 14% | 73% | |
| 37 | 25% | 59% | Median |
| 38 | 10% | 34% | |
| 39 | 12% | 25% | |
| 40 | 5% | 13% | Last Result |
| 41 | 5% | 7% | |
| 42 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 43 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 44 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 29 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 30 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 31 | 1.2% | 99.0% | |
| 32 | 6% | 98% | |
| 33 | 11% | 92% | |
| 34 | 11% | 81% | |
| 35 | 18% | 70% | |
| 36 | 11% | 52% | |
| 37 | 16% | 41% | |
| 38 | 13% | 25% | Median |
| 39 | 7% | 12% | |
| 40 | 4% | 5% | |
| 41 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 42 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 44 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 27 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 28 | 3% | 99.2% | Last Result |
| 29 | 4% | 97% | |
| 30 | 15% | 93% | |
| 31 | 11% | 78% | |
| 32 | 14% | 67% | |
| 33 | 14% | 53% | |
| 34 | 23% | 39% | Median |
| 35 | 6% | 16% | |
| 36 | 6% | 10% | |
| 37 | 3% | 4% | |
| 38 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 39 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 27 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 28 | 3% | 99.2% | |
| 29 | 4% | 97% | |
| 30 | 15% | 93% | |
| 31 | 11% | 78% | |
| 32 | 14% | 67% | |
| 33 | 14% | 53% | |
| 34 | 23% | 39% | Median |
| 35 | 6% | 16% | |
| 36 | 6% | 10% | |
| 37 | 3% | 4% | |
| 38 | 0.7% | 1.0% | Last Result |
| 39 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 24 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.8% | 99.8% | |
| 26 | 10% | 99.0% | |
| 27 | 11% | 89% | |
| 28 | 7% | 77% | |
| 29 | 17% | 70% | |
| 30 | 22% | 53% | Median |
| 31 | 10% | 31% | |
| 32 | 9% | 20% | |
| 33 | 9% | 11% | |
| 34 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 35 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.8% | 99.8% | |
| 26 | 10% | 99.0% | |
| 27 | 11% | 89% | |
| 28 | 7% | 77% | |
| 29 | 17% | 70% | |
| 30 | 22% | 53% | Median |
| 31 | 10% | 31% | |
| 32 | 9% | 20% | |
| 33 | 9% | 11% | Last Result |
| 34 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 35 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% |
Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 12 | 1.1% | 99.7% | |
| 13 | 5% | 98.6% | |
| 14 | 9% | 94% | |
| 15 | 7% | 85% | |
| 16 | 17% | 78% | |
| 17 | 13% | 61% | |
| 18 | 27% | 48% | Median |
| 19 | 12% | 21% | |
| 20 | 5% | 9% | |
| 21 | 3% | 4% | |
| 22 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Mediana
- Commissioner(s): POP TV
- Fieldwork period: 1–8 October 2020
Calculations
- Sample size: 712
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.76%