Opinion Poll by Mediana for POP TV, 1–8 October 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 24.9% 29.4% 27.2–31.6% 26.6–32.3% 26.1–32.8% 25.1–33.9%
Lista Marjana Šarca 12.6% 16.3% 14.6–18.2% 14.2–18.7% 13.8–19.2% 13.0–20.1%
Socialni demokrati 9.9% 14.6% 13.0–16.4% 12.6–16.9% 12.2–17.4% 11.5–18.3%
Levica 9.3% 12.4% 10.9–14.1% 10.5–14.6% 10.1–15.0% 9.5–15.9%
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7.2% 7.7% 6.6–9.2% 6.2–9.6% 6.0–9.9% 5.5–10.7%
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5.1% 4.5% 3.6–5.7% 3.4–6.0% 3.2–6.3% 2.8–6.9%
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 4.9% 4.4% 3.5–5.5% 3.3–5.8% 3.1–6.1% 2.7–6.7%
Slovenska ljudska stranka 2.6% 2.2% 1.7–3.1% 1.5–3.4% 1.4–3.6% 1.2–4.1%
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4.2% 2.0% 1.4–2.8% 1.3–3.1% 1.2–3.3% 1.0–3.7%
Stranka modernega centra 9.7% 1.1% 0.8–1.8% 0.7–2.0% 0.6–2.2% 0.4–2.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 25 28 26–30 26–31 25–32 24–33
Lista Marjana Šarca 13 16 14–17 13–18 13–18 12–20
Socialni demokrati 10 14 12–16 12–17 11–17 10–18
Levica 9 12 10–13 10–14 9–14 9–15
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7 7 6–9 6–9 5–10 5–10
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5 4 0–5 0–5 0–6 0–6
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 5 4 0–5 0–5 0–5 0–6
Slovenska ljudska stranka 0 0 0 0 0 0–3
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4 0 0 0 0 0
Stranka modernega centra 10 0 0 0 0 0

Slovenska demokratska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.2% 100%  
24 0.8% 99.8%  
25 4% 99.0% Last Result
26 14% 95%  
27 14% 81%  
28 19% 67% Median
29 26% 49%  
30 14% 22%  
31 6% 9%  
32 2% 3%  
33 0.8% 1.2%  
34 0.3% 0.4%  
35 0% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 0.8% 99.9%  
13 4% 99.1% Last Result
14 24% 95%  
15 13% 71%  
16 34% 57% Median
17 16% 24%  
18 6% 8%  
19 1.2% 2%  
20 0.5% 0.5%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.6% 100% Last Result
11 2% 99.4%  
12 15% 97%  
13 20% 82%  
14 30% 62% Median
15 17% 32%  
16 6% 15%  
17 8% 8%  
18 0.7% 0.8%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Levica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.4% 100%  
9 2% 99.6% Last Result
10 15% 97%  
11 19% 83%  
12 33% 64% Median
13 23% 31%  
14 6% 8%  
15 2% 2%  
16 0.2% 0.3%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.2% 100%  
5 3% 99.8%  
6 23% 97%  
7 39% 73% Last Result, Median
8 23% 34%  
9 9% 11%  
10 2% 3%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Stranka Alenke Bratušek

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 26% 100%  
1 0% 74%  
2 0% 74%  
3 7% 74%  
4 41% 67% Median
5 24% 26% Last Result
6 3% 3%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 29% 100%  
1 0% 71%  
2 0% 71%  
3 5% 71%  
4 46% 67% Median
5 18% 20% Last Result
6 2% 2%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Slovenska ljudska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska ljudska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.4% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.6%  
2 0% 0.6%  
3 0.3% 0.6%  
4 0.3% 0.3%  
5 0% 0%  

Slovenska nacionalna stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
5 0% 0%  

Stranka modernega centra

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka modernega centra page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 43 47 75% 45–50 43–51 42–51 41–53
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca 38 44 23% 42–46 41–47 40–48 39–50
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 50 43 14% 40–46 39–47 39–47 37–48
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 35 40 0.4% 36–43 36–43 35–44 34–45
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 45 40 0.4% 36–43 36–43 35–44 34–45
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 30 37 0% 33–40 32–41 32–41 32–43
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 40 37 0% 33–40 32–41 32–41 32–43
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 43 36 0% 33–39 32–39 32–40 29–41
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 28 33 0% 30–36 29–36 28–37 27–38
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 38 33 0% 30–36 29–36 28–37 27–38
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati 23 30 0% 26–33 26–33 26–33 25–35
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 33 30 0% 26–33 26–33 26–33 25–35
Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 25 17 0% 14–19 13–20 13–21 12–22

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.3% 100%  
41 1.0% 99.6%  
42 3% 98.6%  
43 2% 96% Last Result
44 2% 94%  
45 16% 91%  
46 19% 75% Majority
47 24% 56%  
48 9% 32% Median
49 12% 23%  
50 5% 11%  
51 3% 5%  
52 2% 2%  
53 0.4% 0.6%  
54 0.1% 0.2%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.2% 100%  
38 0.2% 99.8% Last Result
39 0.6% 99.6%  
40 4% 99.0%  
41 5% 95%  
42 19% 90%  
43 19% 71%  
44 13% 52% Median
45 16% 39%  
46 15% 23% Majority
47 4% 7%  
48 2% 3%  
49 0.8% 1.3%  
50 0.3% 0.5%  
51 0.1% 0.2%  
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100%  
36 0.2% 99.9%  
37 0.7% 99.7%  
38 0.7% 99.1%  
39 4% 98%  
40 5% 94%  
41 20% 89%  
42 15% 69%  
43 14% 55%  
44 14% 41%  
45 13% 27% Median
46 9% 14% Majority
47 4% 5%  
48 0.4% 0.9%  
49 0.4% 0.5%  
50 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
51 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.2% 99.9%  
34 0.5% 99.7%  
35 2% 99.2% Last Result
36 10% 97%  
37 7% 87%  
38 13% 81%  
39 11% 68%  
40 10% 57%  
41 28% 47% Median
42 6% 19%  
43 9% 13%  
44 3% 5%  
45 0.8% 1.2%  
46 0.2% 0.4% Majority
47 0.1% 0.2%  
48 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.2% 99.9%  
34 0.5% 99.7%  
35 2% 99.2%  
36 10% 97%  
37 7% 87%  
38 13% 81%  
39 11% 68%  
40 10% 57%  
41 28% 47% Median
42 6% 19%  
43 9% 13%  
44 3% 5%  
45 0.8% 1.2% Last Result
46 0.2% 0.4% Majority
47 0.1% 0.2%  
48 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100% Last Result
31 0.2% 99.9%  
32 8% 99.8%  
33 5% 92%  
34 7% 87%  
35 6% 79%  
36 14% 73%  
37 25% 59% Median
38 10% 34%  
39 12% 25%  
40 5% 13%  
41 5% 7%  
42 1.1% 2%  
43 0.7% 0.9%  
44 0.1% 0.2%  
45 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100%  
31 0.2% 99.9%  
32 8% 99.8%  
33 5% 92%  
34 7% 87%  
35 6% 79%  
36 14% 73%  
37 25% 59% Median
38 10% 34%  
39 12% 25%  
40 5% 13% Last Result
41 5% 7%  
42 1.1% 2%  
43 0.7% 0.9%  
44 0.1% 0.2%  
45 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.1% 99.9%  
29 0.3% 99.8%  
30 0.5% 99.5%  
31 1.2% 99.0%  
32 6% 98%  
33 11% 92%  
34 11% 81%  
35 18% 70%  
36 11% 52%  
37 16% 41%  
38 13% 25% Median
39 7% 12%  
40 4% 5%  
41 0.4% 0.8%  
42 0.3% 0.4%  
43 0% 0.1% Last Result
44 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.1% 99.9%  
27 0.6% 99.7%  
28 3% 99.2% Last Result
29 4% 97%  
30 15% 93%  
31 11% 78%  
32 14% 67%  
33 14% 53%  
34 23% 39% Median
35 6% 16%  
36 6% 10%  
37 3% 4%  
38 0.7% 1.0%  
39 0.2% 0.2%  
40 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.1% 99.9%  
27 0.6% 99.7%  
28 3% 99.2%  
29 4% 97%  
30 15% 93%  
31 11% 78%  
32 14% 67%  
33 14% 53%  
34 23% 39% Median
35 6% 16%  
36 6% 10%  
37 3% 4%  
38 0.7% 1.0% Last Result
39 0.2% 0.2%  
40 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0.2% 100%  
25 0.8% 99.8%  
26 10% 99.0%  
27 11% 89%  
28 7% 77%  
29 17% 70%  
30 22% 53% Median
31 10% 31%  
32 9% 20%  
33 9% 11%  
34 1.5% 2%  
35 0.7% 0.8%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.2% 100%  
25 0.8% 99.8%  
26 10% 99.0%  
27 11% 89%  
28 7% 77%  
29 17% 70%  
30 22% 53% Median
31 10% 31%  
32 9% 20%  
33 9% 11% Last Result
34 1.5% 2%  
35 0.7% 0.8%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.3% 100%  
12 1.1% 99.7%  
13 5% 98.6%  
14 9% 94%  
15 7% 85%  
16 17% 78%  
17 13% 61%  
18 27% 48% Median
19 12% 21%  
20 5% 9%  
21 3% 4%  
22 0.8% 0.9%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations