Opinion Poll by Ninamedia for Dnevnik, Večer, 13–15 October 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 24.9% 29.3% 27.1–31.6% 26.6–32.2% 26.0–32.8% 25.0–33.9%
Lista Marjana Šarca 12.6% 18.3% 16.5–20.3% 16.0–20.8% 15.6–21.3% 14.8–22.3%
Socialni demokrati 9.9% 17.9% 16.1–19.8% 15.6–20.4% 15.2–20.9% 14.4–21.9%
Levica 9.3% 11.1% 9.7–12.8% 9.3–13.3% 9.0–13.7% 8.4–14.5%
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7.2% 8.6% 7.3–10.1% 7.0–10.5% 6.7–10.9% 6.2–11.6%
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5.1% 4.6% 3.7–5.8% 3.5–6.1% 3.3–6.4% 2.9–7.0%
Slovenska ljudska stranka 2.6% 3.1% 2.4–4.2% 2.2–4.5% 2.1–4.7% 1.8–5.3%
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4.2% 2.9% 2.2–3.8% 2.0–4.1% 1.9–4.4% 1.6–4.9%
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 4.9% 1.7% 1.2–2.5% 1.1–2.8% 1.0–3.0% 0.8–3.4%
Stranka modernega centra 9.7% 1.1% 0.8–1.9% 0.7–2.1% 0.6–2.2% 0.4–2.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 25 29 27–31 26–33 26–33 24–34
Lista Marjana Šarca 13 18 16–20 16–20 15–21 14–22
Socialni demokrati 10 17 16–19 15–20 15–20 14–22
Levica 9 11 9–12 9–13 9–13 8–14
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7 8 7–10 7–10 6–10 6–11
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5 4 0–5 0–6 0–6 0–6
Slovenska ljudska stranka 0 0 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–5
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4 0 0 0 0–4 0–4
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 5 0 0 0 0 0
Stranka modernega centra 10 0 0 0 0 0

Slovenska demokratska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.6% 99.9%  
25 2% 99.3% Last Result
26 3% 98%  
27 8% 95%  
28 21% 87%  
29 18% 65% Median
30 28% 48%  
31 10% 19%  
32 3% 9%  
33 6% 6%  
34 0.7% 0.8%  
35 0.1% 0.2%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100% Last Result
14 0.5% 99.9%  
15 3% 99.5%  
16 11% 96%  
17 16% 86%  
18 46% 70% Median
19 10% 23%  
20 9% 13%  
21 4% 5%  
22 0.5% 0.7%  
23 0.2% 0.2%  
24 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100% Last Result
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0.2% 100%  
14 2% 99.8%  
15 7% 98%  
16 14% 91%  
17 32% 77% Median
18 16% 45%  
19 20% 29%  
20 7% 10%  
21 1.2% 2%  
22 1.1% 1.1%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Levica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.1% 100%  
8 2% 99.9%  
9 9% 98% Last Result
10 31% 89%  
11 29% 58% Median
12 20% 29%  
13 7% 9%  
14 1.5% 2%  
15 0.3% 0.4%  
16 0% 0%  

Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.2% 100%  
6 3% 99.8%  
7 24% 97% Last Result
8 41% 73% Median
9 20% 32%  
10 9% 11%  
11 2% 2%  
12 0.3% 0.3%  
13 0% 0%  

Stranka Alenke Bratušek

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 25% 100%  
1 0% 75%  
2 0% 75%  
3 0.6% 75%  
4 33% 74% Median
5 36% 41% Last Result
6 5% 5%  
7 0.4% 0.5%  
8 0% 0%  

Slovenska ljudska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska ljudska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 84% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 16%  
2 0% 16%  
3 0.7% 16%  
4 14% 15%  
5 1.2% 1.2%  
6 0% 0%  

Slovenska nacionalna stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 96% 100% Median
1 0% 4%  
2 0% 4%  
3 0.3% 4%  
4 3% 4% Last Result
5 0.2% 0.2%  
6 0% 0%  

Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0% Last Result

Stranka modernega centra

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka modernega centra page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 43 47 80% 44–50 44–51 43–52 41–53
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca 38 47 80% 44–50 44–51 43–52 41–53
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 50 48 71% 44–50 44–51 44–51 41–52
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 35 43 18% 41–47 39–48 39–48 38–49
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 45 43 18% 41–47 39–48 39–48 38–49
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 30 43 18% 41–47 39–48 39–48 38–49
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 40 43 18% 41–47 39–48 39–48 38–49
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 43 40 0.1% 36–42 35–42 35–43 33–44
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 28 35 0% 33–38 32–39 32–40 30–41
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 38 35 0% 33–38 32–39 32–40 30–41
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati 23 35 0% 33–38 32–39 32–40 30–41
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 33 35 0% 33–38 32–39 32–40 30–41
Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 25 17 0% 16–19 15–20 15–20 14–22

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.7% 99.9%  
42 0.8% 99.2%  
43 2% 98% Last Result
44 9% 96%  
45 7% 87%  
46 15% 80% Majority
47 18% 66% Median
48 28% 47%  
49 7% 19%  
50 4% 13%  
51 6% 9%  
52 3% 4%  
53 0.5% 0.6%  
54 0% 0.1%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100% Last Result
39 0% 100%  
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.7% 99.9%  
42 0.8% 99.2%  
43 2% 98%  
44 9% 96%  
45 7% 87%  
46 15% 80% Majority
47 18% 66% Median
48 28% 47%  
49 7% 19%  
50 4% 13%  
51 6% 9%  
52 3% 4%  
53 0.5% 0.6%  
54 0% 0.1%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.4% 99.9%  
42 0.6% 99.4%  
43 1.3% 98.8%  
44 12% 98%  
45 14% 85%  
46 6% 71% Majority
47 11% 65% Median
48 37% 55%  
49 7% 18%  
50 6% 11% Last Result
51 4% 5%  
52 1.2% 1.5%  
53 0.2% 0.2%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100% Last Result
36 0% 100%  
37 0.2% 100%  
38 0.5% 99.8%  
39 4% 99.4%  
40 3% 95%  
41 9% 91%  
42 4% 82%  
43 29% 78% Median
44 22% 50%  
45 10% 28%  
46 6% 18% Majority
47 4% 11%  
48 7% 8%  
49 0.6% 0.8%  
50 0.1% 0.3%  
51 0.2% 0.2%  
52 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.2% 100%  
38 0.5% 99.8%  
39 4% 99.4%  
40 3% 95%  
41 9% 91%  
42 4% 82%  
43 29% 78% Median
44 22% 50%  
45 10% 28% Last Result
46 6% 18% Majority
47 4% 11%  
48 7% 8%  
49 0.6% 0.8%  
50 0.1% 0.3%  
51 0.2% 0.2%  
52 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100% Last Result
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0.2% 100%  
38 0.5% 99.8%  
39 4% 99.4%  
40 3% 95%  
41 9% 91%  
42 4% 82%  
43 29% 78% Median
44 22% 50%  
45 10% 28%  
46 6% 18% Majority
47 4% 11%  
48 7% 8%  
49 0.6% 0.8%  
50 0.1% 0.3%  
51 0.2% 0.2%  
52 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.2% 100%  
38 0.5% 99.8%  
39 4% 99.4%  
40 3% 95% Last Result
41 9% 91%  
42 4% 82%  
43 29% 78% Median
44 22% 50%  
45 10% 28%  
46 6% 18% Majority
47 4% 11%  
48 7% 8%  
49 0.6% 0.8%  
50 0.1% 0.3%  
51 0.2% 0.2%  
52 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.4% 99.8%  
34 1.0% 99.4%  
35 6% 98%  
36 6% 92%  
37 18% 86%  
38 9% 68%  
39 9% 59% Median
40 27% 50%  
41 12% 23%  
42 8% 11%  
43 2% 3% Last Result
44 1.1% 1.3%  
45 0.1% 0.2%  
46 0.1% 0.1% Majority
47 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.6% 99.9%  
31 2% 99.3%  
32 7% 98%  
33 11% 91%  
34 7% 80%  
35 27% 72% Median
36 13% 46%  
37 18% 33%  
38 6% 15%  
39 4% 8%  
40 4% 5%  
41 0.6% 0.8%  
42 0.1% 0.2%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.6% 99.9%  
31 2% 99.3%  
32 7% 98%  
33 11% 91%  
34 7% 80%  
35 27% 72% Median
36 13% 46%  
37 18% 33%  
38 6% 15% Last Result
39 4% 8%  
40 4% 5%  
41 0.6% 0.8%  
42 0.1% 0.2%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.6% 99.9%  
31 2% 99.3%  
32 7% 98%  
33 11% 91%  
34 7% 80%  
35 27% 72% Median
36 13% 46%  
37 18% 33%  
38 6% 15%  
39 4% 8%  
40 4% 5%  
41 0.6% 0.8%  
42 0.1% 0.2%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.6% 99.9%  
31 2% 99.3%  
32 7% 98%  
33 11% 91% Last Result
34 7% 80%  
35 27% 72% Median
36 13% 46%  
37 18% 33%  
38 6% 15%  
39 4% 8%  
40 4% 5%  
41 0.6% 0.8%  
42 0.1% 0.2%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.2% 100%  
14 2% 99.8%  
15 7% 98%  
16 14% 91%  
17 32% 77% Median
18 16% 45%  
19 20% 29%  
20 7% 10%  
21 1.2% 2%  
22 1.1% 1.1%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations