Opinion Poll by Mediana for POP TV, 1–25 October 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 24.9% 26.9% 24.8–29.1% 24.3–29.7% 23.8–30.3% 22.8–31.4%
Socialni demokrati 9.9% 16.9% 15.3–18.9% 14.8–19.4% 14.4–19.9% 13.6–20.8%
Lista Marjana Šarca 12.6% 13.7% 12.2–15.5% 11.8–16.0% 11.4–16.5% 10.7–17.3%
Levica 9.3% 11.8% 10.3–13.4% 9.9–13.9% 9.6–14.3% 9.0–15.2%
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7.2% 7.6% 6.4–9.0% 6.1–9.4% 5.8–9.7% 5.3–10.5%
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4.2% 5.3% 4.4–6.6% 4.1–6.9% 3.9–7.2% 3.5–7.9%
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5.1% 4.8% 3.9–5.9% 3.6–6.3% 3.4–6.6% 3.0–7.2%
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 4.9% 2.7% 2.0–3.6% 1.9–3.9% 1.7–4.1% 1.4–4.6%
Stranka modernega centra 9.7% 1.7% 1.2–2.5% 1.1–2.7% 1.0–2.9% 0.8–3.4%
Slovenska ljudska stranka 2.6% 1.7% 1.2–2.5% 1.1–2.7% 1.0–2.9% 0.8–3.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 25 26 24–28 23–28 23–29 21–30
Socialni demokrati 10 16 14–18 14–18 14–19 13–20
Lista Marjana Šarca 13 13 11–14 11–15 10–16 10–17
Levica 9 11 10–12 9–13 9–13 9–14
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7 7 6–8 5–9 5–9 5–10
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4 5 4–6 4–6 0–7 0–7
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5 4 0–5 0–6 0–6 0–6
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 5 0 0 0 0–3 0–4
Stranka modernega centra 10 0 0 0 0 0
Slovenska ljudska stranka 0 0 0 0 0 0

Slovenska demokratska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.6% 99.9%  
22 1.5% 99.4%  
23 6% 98%  
24 17% 92%  
25 23% 75% Last Result
26 18% 52% Median
27 24% 34%  
28 7% 10%  
29 2% 4%  
30 0.7% 1.1%  
31 0.3% 0.4%  
32 0.1% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100% Last Result
11 0% 100%  
12 0.1% 100%  
13 2% 99.8%  
14 11% 98%  
15 17% 87%  
16 29% 69% Median
17 18% 41%  
18 19% 23%  
19 3% 3%  
20 0.7% 0.9%  
21 0.2% 0.2%  
22 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 3% 99.9%  
11 9% 97%  
12 33% 88%  
13 31% 55% Last Result, Median
14 15% 24%  
15 4% 9%  
16 4% 5%  
17 0.7% 0.7%  
18 0% 0%  

Levica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.1% 100%  
8 0.3% 99.9%  
9 9% 99.7% Last Result
10 37% 91%  
11 24% 54% Median
12 23% 30%  
13 5% 7%  
14 1.5% 2%  
15 0.4% 0.4%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.2% 100%  
5 5% 99.8%  
6 26% 95%  
7 37% 69% Last Result, Median
8 25% 32%  
9 6% 7%  
10 1.2% 1.3%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Slovenska nacionalna stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100%  
1 0% 96%  
2 0% 96%  
3 0.5% 96%  
4 29% 96% Last Result
5 50% 67% Median
6 15% 18%  
7 3% 3%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Stranka Alenke Bratušek

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 11% 100%  
1 0% 89%  
2 0% 89%  
3 0.8% 89%  
4 50% 89% Median
5 29% 39% Last Result
6 9% 10%  
7 0.3% 0.4%  
8 0% 0%  

Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 96% 100% Median
1 0% 4%  
2 0% 4%  
3 2% 4%  
4 2% 2%  
5 0% 0% Last Result

Stranka modernega centra

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka modernega centra page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Slovenska ljudska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska ljudska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 50 40 0.3% 38–42 37–43 36–44 34–45
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 43 38 0.1% 36–42 36–43 35–43 34–44
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca 38 38 0.1% 36–41 36–42 35–43 34–44
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 35 36 0% 33–39 33–39 33–40 31–41
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 45 36 0% 33–39 33–39 33–40 31–41
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 30 36 0% 33–39 33–39 33–40 31–41
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 40 36 0% 33–39 33–39 33–40 31–41
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 43 33 0% 31–36 30–36 29–37 27–38
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 28 29 0% 27–31 26–32 26–33 25–34
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 38 29 0% 27–31 26–32 26–33 25–34
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca 23 29 0% 27–31 26–32 26–32 25–34
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra 33 29 0% 27–31 26–32 26–32 25–34
Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 25 16 0% 14–18 14–18 14–19 13–21

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.6% 99.9%  
35 1.3% 99.3%  
36 1.3% 98%  
37 4% 97%  
38 14% 92%  
39 16% 78%  
40 15% 62% Median
41 15% 47%  
42 22% 32%  
43 5% 9%  
44 3% 5%  
45 1.4% 2%  
46 0.2% 0.3% Majority
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0% Last Result

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.6% 99.9%  
35 2% 99.2%  
36 15% 97%  
37 11% 81%  
38 21% 70%  
39 23% 49% Median
40 9% 26%  
41 6% 17%  
42 5% 11%  
43 5% 6% Last Result
44 0.8% 1.1%  
45 0.2% 0.3%  
46 0.1% 0.1% Majority
47 0% 0%  

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.2% 100%  
34 0.7% 99.8%  
35 3% 99.0%  
36 16% 96%  
37 11% 80%  
38 21% 69% Last Result
39 23% 48% Median
40 10% 24%  
41 6% 14%  
42 5% 9%  
43 3% 4%  
44 0.6% 0.8%  
45 0.1% 0.2%  
46 0.1% 0.1% Majority
47 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.6% 99.9%  
32 1.4% 99.3%  
33 9% 98%  
34 11% 89%  
35 17% 77% Last Result
36 18% 60% Median
37 10% 42%  
38 21% 33%  
39 7% 11%  
40 3% 4%  
41 1.0% 1.5%  
42 0.3% 0.5%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.6% 99.9%  
32 1.4% 99.3%  
33 9% 98%  
34 11% 89%  
35 17% 77%  
36 18% 60% Median
37 10% 42%  
38 21% 33%  
39 7% 11%  
40 3% 4%  
41 1.0% 1.5%  
42 0.3% 0.5%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0% Last Result

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100% Last Result
31 0.6% 99.9%  
32 2% 99.3%  
33 10% 98%  
34 12% 88%  
35 19% 76%  
36 18% 57% Median
37 9% 39%  
38 20% 30%  
39 6% 10%  
40 3% 4%  
41 0.9% 1.2%  
42 0.3% 0.3%  
43 0% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.6% 99.9%  
32 2% 99.3%  
33 10% 98%  
34 12% 88%  
35 19% 76%  
36 18% 57% Median
37 9% 39%  
38 20% 30%  
39 6% 10%  
40 3% 4% Last Result
41 0.9% 1.2%  
42 0.3% 0.3%  
43 0% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 1.1% 99.9%  
28 0.7% 98.9%  
29 2% 98%  
30 5% 96%  
31 8% 91%  
32 20% 83%  
33 16% 63% Median
34 19% 46%  
35 17% 27%  
36 6% 10%  
37 3% 4%  
38 0.5% 0.9%  
39 0.3% 0.4%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0% Last Result

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.2% 100%  
25 0.9% 99.7%  
26 6% 98.8%  
27 13% 93%  
28 20% 80% Last Result
29 16% 60% Median
30 22% 45%  
31 15% 23%  
32 5% 8%  
33 2% 3%  
34 0.7% 1.2%  
35 0.4% 0.5%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.2% 100%  
25 0.9% 99.7%  
26 6% 98.8%  
27 13% 93%  
28 20% 80%  
29 16% 60% Median
30 22% 45%  
31 15% 23%  
32 5% 8%  
33 2% 3%  
34 0.7% 1.2%  
35 0.4% 0.5%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0.3% 100%  
25 1.0% 99.7%  
26 6% 98.7%  
27 13% 92%  
28 22% 79%  
29 15% 57% Median
30 21% 42%  
31 14% 21%  
32 4% 7%  
33 1.5% 2%  
34 0.5% 0.8%  
35 0.3% 0.3%  
36 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.3% 100%  
25 1.0% 99.7%  
26 6% 98.7%  
27 13% 92%  
28 22% 79%  
29 15% 57% Median
30 21% 42%  
31 14% 21%  
32 4% 7%  
33 1.5% 2% Last Result
34 0.5% 0.8%  
35 0.3% 0.3%  
36 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 2% 99.9%  
14 11% 98%  
15 16% 88%  
16 28% 72% Median
17 18% 44%  
18 21% 26%  
19 3% 5%  
20 1.5% 2%  
21 0.4% 0.6%  
22 0.2% 0.2%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations