Opinion Poll by Parsifal for Nova 24TV, 2–4 November 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 24.9% 32.4% 30.2–34.7% 29.6–35.4% 29.0–35.9% 28.0–37.1%
Socialni demokrati 9.9% 16.9% 15.2–18.8% 14.7–19.4% 14.3–19.9% 13.5–20.8%
Lista Marjana Šarca 12.6% 15.3% 13.7–17.2% 13.3–17.7% 12.9–18.2% 12.1–19.1%
Levica 9.3% 8.9% 7.7–10.5% 7.3–10.9% 7.1–11.3% 6.5–12.1%
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 4.9% 7.1% 6.0–8.5% 5.7–8.9% 5.4–9.3% 4.9–10.0%
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7.2% 6.4% 5.3–7.7% 5.1–8.1% 4.8–8.5% 4.4–9.1%
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5.1% 3.6% 2.8–4.6% 2.6–4.9% 2.4–5.2% 2.1–5.8%
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4.2% 3.0% 2.3–4.0% 2.1–4.3% 2.0–4.5% 1.7–5.0%
Slovenska ljudska stranka 2.6% 1.6% 1.1–2.3% 1.0–2.6% 0.9–2.8% 0.7–3.2%
Stranka modernega centra 9.7% 0.9% 0.5–1.5% 0.5–1.7% 0.4–1.8% 0.3–2.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 25 31 29–34 28–35 28–35 27–37
Socialni demokrati 10 16 14–18 14–19 14–19 13–21
Lista Marjana Šarca 13 15 13–17 12–17 12–18 11–19
Levica 9 8 7–10 7–10 6–11 6–12
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 5 7 6–8 5–8 5–9 4–10
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7 6 5–7 4–8 4–8 4–9
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5 0 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–5
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4 0 0 0–4 0–4 0–4
Slovenska ljudska stranka 0 0 0 0 0 0
Stranka modernega centra 10 0 0 0 0 0

Slovenska demokratska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0% 100% Last Result
26 0.2% 100%  
27 2% 99.7%  
28 5% 98%  
29 6% 93%  
30 20% 86%  
31 22% 66% Median
32 15% 44%  
33 15% 30%  
34 6% 15%  
35 6% 8%  
36 2% 2%  
37 0.5% 0.8%  
38 0.2% 0.3%  
39 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100% Last Result
11 0% 100%  
12 0.3% 100%  
13 2% 99.7%  
14 12% 98%  
15 22% 86%  
16 16% 64% Median
17 25% 48%  
18 16% 23%  
19 5% 7%  
20 2% 2%  
21 0.4% 0.5%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.8% 100%  
12 5% 99.1%  
13 13% 94% Last Result
14 23% 81%  
15 26% 58% Median
16 16% 32%  
17 11% 15%  
18 2% 4%  
19 2% 2%  
20 0.2% 0.3%  
21 0% 0%  

Levica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.2% 100%  
6 4% 99.8%  
7 18% 96%  
8 30% 78% Median
9 31% 49% Last Result
10 13% 17%  
11 3% 4%  
12 0.5% 0.6%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 1.2% 100%  
5 8% 98.8% Last Result
6 36% 90%  
7 35% 55% Median
8 15% 20%  
9 4% 5%  
10 1.1% 1.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 5% 99.8%  
5 26% 94%  
6 40% 68% Median
7 22% 28% Last Result
8 5% 5%  
9 0.7% 0.8%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Stranka Alenke Bratušek

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 57% 100% Median
1 0% 43%  
2 0% 43%  
3 4% 43%  
4 37% 39%  
5 2% 2% Last Result
6 0.2% 0.3%  
7 0% 0%  

Slovenska nacionalna stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 91% 100% Median
1 0% 9%  
2 0% 9%  
3 1.3% 9%  
4 7% 8% Last Result
5 0.4% 0.4%  
6 0% 0%  

Slovenska ljudska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska ljudska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Stranka modernega centra

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka modernega centra page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 43 53 99.8% 50–56 49–57 48–58 47–60
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca 38 46 61% 43–49 42–50 42–51 41–53
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra 50 46 51% 43–49 42–50 41–50 40–51
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 35 43 24% 41–47 40–48 40–49 38–50
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 45 43 24% 41–47 40–48 40–49 38–50
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra 43 40 0.4% 36–43 36–44 35–44 34–45
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 28 38 0% 35–41 34–42 34–43 32–44
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 38 38 0% 35–41 34–42 34–43 32–44
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 30 37 0% 35–40 34–41 33–42 32–43
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 40 37 0% 35–40 34–41 33–42 32–43
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca 23 31 0% 28–34 28–35 27–36 26–36
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra 33 31 0% 28–34 28–35 27–36 26–36
Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 25 23 0% 21–25 20–26 20–27 19–28

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0% 100% Last Result
44 0% 100%  
45 0.2% 100%  
46 0.1% 99.8% Majority
47 0.5% 99.7%  
48 4% 99.2%  
49 4% 96%  
50 6% 91%  
51 12% 85%  
52 17% 73%  
53 9% 56% Median
54 25% 48%  
55 9% 23%  
56 5% 14%  
57 5% 9%  
58 3% 4%  
59 0.2% 0.9%  
60 0.5% 0.7%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100% Last Result
39 0.2% 100%  
40 0.2% 99.8%  
41 1.3% 99.5%  
42 4% 98%  
43 6% 94%  
44 10% 88%  
45 17% 79%  
46 13% 61% Median, Majority
47 15% 48%  
48 20% 33%  
49 5% 13%  
50 5% 9%  
51 3% 4%  
52 0.7% 1.3%  
53 0.4% 0.6%  
54 0.2% 0.2%  
55 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.2% 99.9%  
40 1.2% 99.6%  
41 3% 98%  
42 5% 95%  
43 13% 90%  
44 9% 77% Median
45 17% 68%  
46 21% 51% Majority
47 12% 30%  
48 7% 19%  
49 5% 11%  
50 6% 7% Last Result
51 0.6% 1.0%  
52 0.2% 0.4%  
53 0.2% 0.2%  
54 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100% Last Result
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.3% 99.9%  
38 0.5% 99.6%  
39 2% 99.1%  
40 4% 98%  
41 9% 94%  
42 19% 85%  
43 17% 67%  
44 12% 50% Median
45 14% 38%  
46 12% 24% Majority
47 5% 12%  
48 3% 7%  
49 2% 3%  
50 2% 2%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.3% 99.9%  
38 0.5% 99.6%  
39 2% 99.1%  
40 4% 98%  
41 9% 94%  
42 19% 85%  
43 17% 67%  
44 12% 50% Median
45 14% 38% Last Result
46 12% 24% Majority
47 5% 12%  
48 3% 7%  
49 2% 3%  
50 2% 2%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.2% 99.9%  
34 2% 99.7%  
35 3% 98%  
36 6% 95%  
37 8% 89%  
38 15% 81% Median
39 13% 67%  
40 23% 54%  
41 13% 31%  
42 5% 18%  
43 6% 13% Last Result
44 5% 6%  
45 0.7% 1.1%  
46 0.3% 0.4% Majority
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.6% 99.9%  
33 1.1% 99.3%  
34 6% 98%  
35 8% 92%  
36 15% 84%  
37 16% 68%  
38 13% 53% Median
39 13% 39%  
40 16% 27%  
41 5% 11%  
42 3% 6%  
43 2% 4%  
44 2% 2%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0% Majority

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.6% 99.9%  
33 1.1% 99.3%  
34 6% 98%  
35 8% 92%  
36 15% 84%  
37 16% 68%  
38 13% 53% Last Result, Median
39 13% 39%  
40 16% 27%  
41 5% 11%  
42 3% 6%  
43 2% 4%  
44 2% 2%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0% Majority

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100% Last Result
31 0.3% 99.9%  
32 1.0% 99.6%  
33 2% 98.6%  
34 4% 97%  
35 14% 92%  
36 23% 78%  
37 15% 55% Median
38 19% 41%  
39 8% 22%  
40 7% 14%  
41 3% 7%  
42 3% 4%  
43 1.2% 1.3%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.3% 99.9%  
32 1.0% 99.6%  
33 2% 98.6%  
34 4% 97%  
35 14% 92%  
36 23% 78%  
37 15% 55% Median
38 19% 41%  
39 8% 22%  
40 7% 14% Last Result
41 3% 7%  
42 3% 4%  
43 1.2% 1.3%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0.2% 100%  
26 0.5% 99.7%  
27 2% 99.2%  
28 8% 97%  
29 9% 89%  
30 22% 80%  
31 17% 58% Median
32 14% 41%  
33 15% 27%  
34 6% 12%  
35 3% 6%  
36 3% 4%  
37 0.4% 0.5%  
38 0% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.2% 100%  
26 0.5% 99.7%  
27 2% 99.2%  
28 8% 97%  
29 9% 89%  
30 22% 80%  
31 17% 58% Median
32 14% 41%  
33 15% 27% Last Result
34 6% 12%  
35 3% 6%  
36 3% 4%  
37 0.4% 0.5%  
38 0% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0.2% 99.9%  
19 2% 99.7%  
20 8% 98%  
21 21% 91%  
22 10% 70%  
23 18% 60% Median
24 16% 42%  
25 19% 26% Last Result
26 5% 7%  
27 2% 3%  
28 0.4% 0.6%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations