Opinion Poll by Mediana for Delo, 2–5 November 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 24.9% 28.1% 26.0–30.3% 25.4–30.9% 24.9–31.5% 23.9–32.5%
Socialni demokrati 9.9% 16.8% 15.1–18.7% 14.6–19.2% 14.3–19.7% 13.5–20.7%
Lista Marjana Šarca 12.6% 14.2% 12.6–16.0% 12.2–16.5% 11.8–16.9% 11.1–17.8%
Levica 9.3% 12.2% 10.8–13.9% 10.4–14.4% 10.0–14.8% 9.4–15.7%
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7.2% 8.5% 7.3–10.0% 6.9–10.4% 6.6–10.7% 6.1–11.5%
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 4.9% 5.6% 4.6–6.8% 4.3–7.2% 4.1–7.5% 3.7–8.1%
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4.2% 4.3% 3.5–5.4% 3.2–5.8% 3.0–6.1% 2.7–6.6%
Slovenska ljudska stranka 2.6% 1.7% 1.2–2.5% 1.1–2.7% 1.0–2.9% 0.8–3.3%
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5.1% 1.1% 0.7–1.8% 0.6–2.0% 0.6–2.2% 0.4–2.6%
Stranka modernega centra 9.7% 0.7% 0.4–1.3% 0.4–1.5% 0.3–1.6% 0.2–2.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 25 26 24–29 24–29 23–30 23–31
Socialni demokrati 10 16 14–17 14–18 13–19 12–20
Lista Marjana Šarca 13 14 12–15 11–15 11–16 10–17
Levica 9 11 10–13 9–13 9–14 9–15
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7 8 7–9 6–9 6–10 5–11
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 5 5 4–6 4–6 3–7 0–7
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4 4 0–5 0–5 0–5 0–6
Slovenska ljudska stranka 0 0 0 0 0 0
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5 0 0 0 0 0
Stranka modernega centra 10 0 0 0 0 0

Slovenska demokratska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.3% 99.9%  
23 4% 99.6%  
24 10% 96%  
25 22% 86% Last Result
26 25% 64% Median
27 10% 38%  
28 9% 28%  
29 16% 19%  
30 1.5% 3%  
31 1.0% 1.1%  
32 0.2% 0.2%  
33 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100% Last Result
11 0% 100%  
12 0.6% 100%  
13 3% 99.4%  
14 16% 96%  
15 23% 80%  
16 36% 58% Median
17 13% 22%  
18 6% 9%  
19 2% 3%  
20 0.5% 0.6%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.9% 100%  
11 7% 99.1%  
12 21% 92%  
13 16% 71% Last Result
14 34% 55% Median
15 18% 21%  
16 2% 3%  
17 0.4% 0.5%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Levica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.3% 100%  
9 6% 99.6% Last Result
10 23% 94%  
11 35% 70% Median
12 24% 35%  
13 8% 10%  
14 2% 3%  
15 0.7% 0.8%  
16 0% 0%  

Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 1.1% 100%  
6 8% 98.9%  
7 35% 91% Last Result
8 30% 57% Median
9 22% 26%  
10 3% 4%  
11 1.0% 1.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 0% 98%  
2 0% 98%  
3 2% 98%  
4 18% 96%  
5 36% 78% Last Result, Median
6 39% 42%  
7 3% 4%  
8 0.2% 0.2%  
9 0% 0%  

Slovenska nacionalna stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 42% 100%  
1 0% 58%  
2 0% 58%  
3 8% 58%  
4 41% 51% Last Result, Median
5 10% 10%  
6 0.9% 0.9%  
7 0% 0%  

Slovenska ljudska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska ljudska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Stranka Alenke Bratušek

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0% Last Result

Stranka modernega centra

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka modernega centra page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 43 45 46% 42–47 42–47 41–48 39–49
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 35 42 13% 39–46 38–46 37–46 36–47
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra 50 42 13% 39–46 38–46 37–46 36–47
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 45 42 13% 39–46 38–46 37–46 36–47
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca 38 40 0.1% 38–42 37–43 37–43 35–44
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 30 37 0% 34–40 33–40 33–41 31–42
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 40 37 0% 34–40 33–40 33–41 31–42
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 28 34 0% 32–37 31–37 30–37 29–38
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra 43 34 0% 32–37 31–37 30–37 29–38
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 38 34 0% 32–37 31–37 30–37 29–38
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca 23 29 0% 27–31 26–31 26–32 25–34
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra 33 29 0% 27–31 26–31 26–32 25–34
Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 25 21 0% 19–22 18–23 17–24 16–25

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.2% 100%  
39 0.6% 99.8%  
40 0.6% 99.2%  
41 3% 98.6%  
42 5% 95%  
43 14% 90% Last Result
44 12% 76%  
45 18% 64% Median
46 29% 46% Majority
47 13% 17%  
48 3% 5%  
49 1.3% 2%  
50 0.3% 0.3%  
51 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.2% 100% Last Result
36 1.0% 99.7%  
37 2% 98.8%  
38 3% 97%  
39 9% 94%  
40 12% 86%  
41 19% 73%  
42 16% 55%  
43 12% 39% Median
44 10% 28%  
45 4% 18%  
46 13% 13% Majority
47 0.5% 0.6%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.2% 100%  
36 1.0% 99.7%  
37 2% 98.8%  
38 3% 97%  
39 9% 94%  
40 12% 86%  
41 19% 73%  
42 16% 55%  
43 12% 39% Median
44 10% 28%  
45 4% 18%  
46 13% 13% Majority
47 0.5% 0.6%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0% Last Result

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.2% 100%  
36 1.0% 99.7%  
37 2% 98.8%  
38 3% 97%  
39 9% 94%  
40 12% 86%  
41 19% 73%  
42 16% 55%  
43 12% 39% Median
44 10% 28%  
45 4% 18% Last Result
46 13% 13% Majority
47 0.5% 0.6%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.4% 100%  
35 0.6% 99.5%  
36 1.4% 99.0%  
37 7% 98%  
38 19% 91% Last Result
39 9% 72%  
40 34% 62% Median
41 12% 28%  
42 8% 16%  
43 6% 8%  
44 2% 2%  
45 0.2% 0.3%  
46 0.1% 0.1% Majority
47 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100% Last Result
31 0.5% 100%  
32 1.3% 99.5%  
33 4% 98%  
34 5% 94%  
35 18% 89%  
36 19% 72%  
37 18% 53%  
38 8% 35% Median
39 11% 27%  
40 13% 16%  
41 2% 3%  
42 0.8% 1.1%  
43 0.2% 0.2%  
44 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.5% 100%  
32 1.3% 99.5%  
33 4% 98%  
34 5% 94%  
35 18% 89%  
36 19% 72%  
37 18% 53%  
38 8% 35% Median
39 11% 27%  
40 13% 16% Last Result
41 2% 3%  
42 0.8% 1.1%  
43 0.2% 0.2%  
44 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.4% 99.9% Last Result
29 1.1% 99.6%  
30 2% 98%  
31 4% 96%  
32 11% 92%  
33 12% 81%  
34 27% 68%  
35 13% 42% Median
36 12% 29%  
37 15% 17%  
38 2% 2%  
39 0.3% 0.5%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.4% 99.9%  
29 1.1% 99.6%  
30 2% 98%  
31 4% 96%  
32 11% 92%  
33 12% 81%  
34 27% 68%  
35 13% 42% Median
36 12% 29%  
37 15% 17%  
38 2% 2%  
39 0.3% 0.5%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0% Last Result

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.4% 99.9%  
29 1.1% 99.6%  
30 2% 98%  
31 4% 96%  
32 11% 92%  
33 12% 81%  
34 27% 68%  
35 13% 42% Median
36 12% 29%  
37 15% 17%  
38 2% 2% Last Result
39 0.3% 0.5%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.2% 100% Last Result
24 0.3% 99.8%  
25 2% 99.5%  
26 5% 98%  
27 7% 93%  
28 27% 85%  
29 17% 58%  
30 15% 42% Median
31 22% 27%  
32 3% 5%  
33 0.9% 2%  
34 0.6% 0.8%  
35 0.1% 0.2%  
36 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.2% 100%  
24 0.3% 99.8%  
25 2% 99.5%  
26 5% 98%  
27 7% 93%  
28 27% 85%  
29 17% 58%  
30 15% 42% Median
31 22% 27%  
32 3% 5%  
33 0.9% 2% Last Result
34 0.6% 0.8%  
35 0.1% 0.2%  
36 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.3% 99.9%  
16 0.9% 99.6%  
17 2% 98.7%  
18 6% 97%  
19 8% 91%  
20 26% 83%  
21 14% 57% Median
22 33% 43%  
23 5% 10%  
24 2% 5%  
25 2% 2% Last Result
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations