Opinion Poll by Ninamedia for Dnevnik, Večer, 10–12 November 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 24.9% 29.3% 27.1–31.6% 26.6–32.2% 26.0–32.8% 25.0–33.9%
Lista Marjana Šarca 12.6% 18.3% 16.5–20.3% 16.0–20.8% 15.6–21.3% 14.8–22.3%
Socialni demokrati 9.9% 18.1% 16.4–20.1% 15.9–20.7% 15.5–21.2% 14.6–22.2%
Levica 9.3% 11.9% 10.4–13.6% 10.0–14.1% 9.7–14.5% 9.0–15.3%
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7.2% 6.6% 5.5–7.9% 5.2–8.3% 5.0–8.7% 4.5–9.4%
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5.1% 4.7% 3.8–5.9% 3.6–6.2% 3.4–6.6% 3.0–7.2%
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 4.9% 3.6% 2.8–4.6% 2.6–5.0% 2.4–5.2% 2.1–5.8%
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4.2% 2.9% 2.2–3.8% 2.0–4.1% 1.9–4.4% 1.6–4.9%
Slovenska ljudska stranka 2.6% 2.0% 1.5–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.2–3.3% 1.0–3.8%
Stranka modernega centra 9.7% 0.3% 0.2–0.8% 0.1–0.9% 0.1–1.0% 0.0–1.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 25 29 26–31 26–32 25–32 24–34
Lista Marjana Šarca 13 18 16–20 16–21 15–21 14–22
Socialni demokrati 10 18 15–20 15–20 15–21 14–22
Levica 9 11 10–13 9–14 9–14 9–15
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7 6 5–8 5–8 4–8 4–9
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5 4 0–5 0–6 0–6 0–7
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 5 0 0–4 0–4 0–5 0–5
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4 0 0 0–4 0–4 0–4
Slovenska ljudska stranka 0 0 0 0 0 0
Stranka modernega centra 10 0 0 0 0 0

Slovenska demokratska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.7% 99.9%  
25 2% 99.2% Last Result
26 8% 97%  
27 12% 89%  
28 17% 77%  
29 22% 60% Median
30 22% 39%  
31 9% 17%  
32 5% 8%  
33 1.5% 2%  
34 0.7% 1.0%  
35 0.2% 0.3%  
36 0% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100% Last Result
14 0.8% 99.9%  
15 3% 99.1%  
16 13% 96%  
17 20% 82%  
18 26% 63% Median
19 25% 37%  
20 4% 12%  
21 7% 8%  
22 1.1% 1.4%  
23 0.3% 0.4%  
24 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100% Last Result
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0.1% 100%  
14 1.2% 99.9%  
15 10% 98.7%  
16 8% 89%  
17 20% 81%  
18 27% 61% Median
19 21% 34%  
20 8% 13%  
21 4% 5%  
22 0.3% 0.5%  
23 0.1% 0.2%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Levica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.1% 100%  
8 0.4% 99.9%  
9 8% 99.6% Last Result
10 12% 91%  
11 41% 79% Median
12 17% 39%  
13 15% 22%  
14 5% 7%  
15 1.0% 1.3%  
16 0.3% 0.4%  
17 0% 0%  

Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 4% 99.9%  
5 25% 95%  
6 33% 71% Median
7 27% 38% Last Result
8 9% 11%  
9 2% 2%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Stranka Alenke Bratušek

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 12% 100%  
1 0% 88%  
2 0% 88%  
3 0.3% 88%  
4 53% 87% Median
5 25% 34% Last Result
6 8% 9%  
7 1.2% 1.2%  
8 0% 0%  

Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 66% 100% Median
1 0% 34%  
2 0% 34%  
3 1.4% 34%  
4 29% 32%  
5 3% 4% Last Result
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0%  

Slovenska nacionalna stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 91% 100% Median
1 0% 9%  
2 0% 9%  
3 2% 9%  
4 7% 8% Last Result
5 0.3% 0.3%  
6 0% 0%  

Slovenska ljudska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska ljudska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Stranka modernega centra

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka modernega centra page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 43 48 85% 45–52 44–53 44–53 43–54
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca 38 47 72% 44–50 44–51 43–52 42–53
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 50 47 79% 44–50 44–51 43–51 41–52
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 35 43 20% 40–46 40–47 39–48 38–49
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 45 43 20% 40–46 40–47 39–48 38–49
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 30 42 5% 39–45 38–45 37–46 36–47
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 40 42 5% 39–45 38–45 37–46 36–47
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 43 41 1.4% 38–45 37–45 37–45 35–46
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 28 37 0% 34–40 34–41 33–41 32–43
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 38 37 0% 34–40 34–41 33–41 32–43
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati 23 36 0% 33–38 33–40 32–40 30–41
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 33 36 0% 33–38 33–40 32–40 30–41
Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 25 19 0% 17–22 16–23 15–23 14–25

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.3% 99.9%  
43 1.3% 99.6% Last Result
44 4% 98%  
45 9% 94%  
46 11% 85% Majority
47 11% 74% Median
48 16% 63%  
49 15% 46%  
50 14% 32%  
51 8% 18%  
52 5% 10%  
53 4% 6%  
54 1.3% 2%  
55 0.2% 0.5%  
56 0.2% 0.2%  
57 0% 0%  

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100% Last Result
39 0% 100%  
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.3% 99.9%  
42 2% 99.6%  
43 2% 98%  
44 8% 95%  
45 15% 87%  
46 18% 72% Majority
47 16% 54% Median
48 15% 38%  
49 11% 23%  
50 7% 13%  
51 3% 6%  
52 0.5% 3%  
53 2% 2%  
54 0.1% 0.2%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.2% 100%  
41 0.3% 99.8%  
42 1.4% 99.4%  
43 2% 98%  
44 7% 96%  
45 10% 89%  
46 18% 79% Median, Majority
47 14% 62%  
48 18% 48%  
49 11% 30%  
50 12% 19% Last Result
51 6% 7%  
52 1.3% 2%  
53 0.3% 0.4%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100% Last Result
36 0.2% 100%  
37 0.2% 99.8%  
38 1.3% 99.6%  
39 3% 98%  
40 8% 96%  
41 10% 87%  
42 14% 77% Median
43 15% 63%  
44 15% 48%  
45 13% 33%  
46 13% 20% Majority
47 5% 8%  
48 2% 3%  
49 0.8% 1.0%  
50 0.1% 0.2%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.2% 100%  
37 0.2% 99.8%  
38 1.3% 99.6%  
39 3% 98%  
40 8% 96%  
41 10% 87%  
42 14% 77% Median
43 15% 63%  
44 15% 48%  
45 13% 33% Last Result
46 13% 20% Majority
47 5% 8%  
48 2% 3%  
49 0.8% 1.0%  
50 0.1% 0.2%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100% Last Result
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.4% 99.8%  
37 2% 99.4%  
38 4% 97%  
39 6% 94%  
40 13% 87%  
41 13% 74%  
42 22% 61% Median
43 14% 40%  
44 13% 25%  
45 8% 12%  
46 3% 5% Majority
47 1.5% 2%  
48 0.3% 0.5%  
49 0.1% 0.2%  
50 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.4% 99.8%  
37 2% 99.4%  
38 4% 97%  
39 6% 94%  
40 13% 87% Last Result
41 13% 74%  
42 22% 61% Median
43 14% 40%  
44 13% 25%  
45 8% 12%  
46 3% 5% Majority
47 1.5% 2%  
48 0.3% 0.5%  
49 0.1% 0.2%  
50 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100%  
34 0.3% 99.9%  
35 0.5% 99.7%  
36 1.4% 99.2%  
37 3% 98%  
38 9% 95%  
39 14% 86%  
40 10% 71% Median
41 18% 61%  
42 15% 44%  
43 9% 28% Last Result
44 8% 19%  
45 10% 11%  
46 1.1% 1.4% Majority
47 0.2% 0.3%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0% 100%  
30 0.2% 100%  
31 0.2% 99.8%  
32 0.8% 99.6%  
33 4% 98.7%  
34 8% 95%  
35 16% 87%  
36 11% 71% Median
37 16% 60%  
38 14% 44%  
39 11% 30%  
40 9% 19%  
41 8% 10%  
42 1.3% 2%  
43 0.3% 0.8%  
44 0.3% 0.5%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0% Majority

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.2% 100%  
31 0.2% 99.8%  
32 0.8% 99.6%  
33 4% 98.7%  
34 8% 95%  
35 16% 87%  
36 11% 71% Median
37 16% 60%  
38 14% 44% Last Result
39 11% 30%  
40 9% 19%  
41 8% 10%  
42 1.3% 2%  
43 0.3% 0.8%  
44 0.3% 0.5%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0% Majority

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0.5% 100%  
31 1.1% 99.5%  
32 3% 98%  
33 9% 95%  
34 10% 87%  
35 25% 76%  
36 13% 51% Median
37 19% 39%  
38 13% 20%  
39 2% 8%  
40 5% 5%  
41 0.6% 0.9%  
42 0.1% 0.3%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.5% 100%  
31 1.1% 99.5%  
32 3% 98%  
33 9% 95% Last Result
34 10% 87%  
35 25% 76%  
36 13% 51% Median
37 19% 39%  
38 13% 20%  
39 2% 8%  
40 5% 5%  
41 0.6% 0.9%  
42 0.1% 0.3%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.6% 100%  
15 3% 99.3%  
16 5% 97%  
17 14% 91%  
18 16% 77% Median
19 23% 62%  
20 10% 38%  
21 9% 28%  
22 14% 19%  
23 4% 5%  
24 0.9% 1.4%  
25 0.4% 0.5% Last Result
26 0.1% 0.2%  
27 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations