Opinion Poll by Mediana for POP TV, 1–23 November 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 24.9% 24.8% 22.8–26.9% 22.2–27.5% 21.7–28.1% 20.8–29.1%
Socialni demokrati 9.9% 16.5% 14.8–18.4% 14.3–18.9% 13.9–19.4% 13.1–20.3%
Lista Marjana Šarca 12.6% 16.2% 14.5–18.1% 14.1–18.6% 13.6–19.1% 12.9–20.0%
Levica 9.3% 13.1% 11.6–14.8% 11.2–15.3% 10.8–15.8% 10.1–16.6%
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7.2% 6.5% 5.4–7.8% 5.1–8.2% 4.9–8.5% 4.4–9.2%
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 4.9% 5.8% 4.8–7.1% 4.5–7.4% 4.3–7.7% 3.9–8.4%
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4.2% 3.9% 3.1–5.0% 2.9–5.4% 2.7–5.6% 2.4–6.2%
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5.1% 3.0% 2.3–3.9% 2.1–4.2% 1.9–4.5% 1.7–5.0%
Slovenska ljudska stranka 2.6% 2.1% 1.6–3.0% 1.4–3.2% 1.3–3.5% 1.1–3.9%
Stranka modernega centra 9.7% 1.0% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.5–2.0% 0.4–2.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 25 24 22–26 21–27 21–28 20–28
Socialni demokrati 10 15 14–18 13–18 13–18 12–20
Lista Marjana Šarca 13 15 14–17 13–18 13–18 12–19
Levica 9 12 11–14 11–15 10–15 9–16
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7 6 5–7 5–8 4–8 4–9
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 5 5 4–6 4–7 4–7 0–8
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4 4 0–4 0–5 0–5 0–5
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5 0 0 0–4 0–4 0–4
Slovenska ljudska stranka 0 0 0 0 0 0
Stranka modernega centra 10 0 0 0 0 0

Slovenska demokratska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.4% 100%  
20 2% 99.6%  
21 6% 98%  
22 14% 92%  
23 19% 78%  
24 27% 59% Median
25 19% 32% Last Result
26 5% 12%  
27 5% 8%  
28 2% 3%  
29 0.3% 0.3%  
30 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100% Last Result
11 0.1% 100%  
12 1.0% 99.9%  
13 4% 98.9%  
14 27% 94%  
15 19% 68% Median
16 20% 48%  
17 13% 28%  
18 13% 15%  
19 1.4% 2%  
20 0.6% 0.7%  
21 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 2% 99.9%  
13 5% 98% Last Result
14 13% 93%  
15 30% 80% Median
16 17% 50%  
17 25% 33%  
18 6% 8%  
19 2% 2%  
20 0.2% 0.2%  
21 0% 0%  

Levica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 1.1% 100% Last Result
10 4% 98.9%  
11 16% 95%  
12 36% 79% Median
13 18% 43%  
14 19% 25%  
15 4% 5%  
16 1.2% 1.4%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0.1% 99.9%  
4 4% 99.9%  
5 33% 96%  
6 36% 63% Median
7 22% 27% Last Result
8 5% 5%  
9 0.5% 0.5%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 0% 98%  
2 0% 98%  
3 0.2% 98%  
4 18% 98%  
5 32% 80% Last Result, Median
6 41% 48%  
7 5% 7%  
8 2% 2%  
9 0% 0%  

Slovenska nacionalna stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 44% 100%  
1 0% 56%  
2 0% 56%  
3 6% 56%  
4 41% 50% Last Result, Median
5 8% 9%  
6 0.4% 0.4%  
7 0% 0%  

Stranka Alenke Bratušek

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 91% 100% Median
1 0% 9%  
2 0% 9%  
3 1.2% 9%  
4 8% 8%  
5 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
6 0% 0%  

Slovenska ljudska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska ljudska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.2%  
2 0% 0.2%  
3 0.1% 0.2%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Stranka modernega centra

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka modernega centra page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 43 45 38% 42–47 41–48 41–49 39–49
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra 50 43 12% 40–46 39–47 39–47 38–48
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 35 42 8% 40–45 39–46 38–47 37–48
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 45 42 8% 40–45 39–46 38–47 37–48
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca 38 40 0.4% 37–42 36–43 35–43 34–45
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 30 37 0% 35–40 34–41 33–41 32–43
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 40 37 0% 35–40 34–41 33–41 32–43
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 28 37 0% 34–39 33–40 32–41 31–42
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra 43 37 0% 34–40 33–40 32–41 32–42
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 38 37 0% 34–39 33–40 32–41 31–42
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca 23 31 0% 29–34 28–34 27–35 26–37
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra 33 31 0% 29–34 28–34 27–35 26–37
Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 25 21 0% 19–23 18–24 17–24 17–26

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.2% 100%  
39 0.9% 99.8%  
40 1.0% 98.8%  
41 5% 98%  
42 7% 93%  
43 16% 86% Last Result
44 19% 69% Median
45 12% 51%  
46 8% 38% Majority
47 23% 30%  
48 4% 8%  
49 3% 3%  
50 0.4% 0.5%  
51 0% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.2% 99.9%  
38 1.3% 99.7%  
39 5% 98%  
40 10% 93%  
41 6% 83% Median
42 25% 78%  
43 20% 52%  
44 11% 32%  
45 9% 21%  
46 7% 12% Majority
47 5% 6%  
48 0.6% 1.0%  
49 0.3% 0.4%  
50 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
51 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100% Last Result
36 0.4% 99.9%  
37 0.4% 99.5%  
38 2% 99.1%  
39 6% 97%  
40 11% 91%  
41 6% 80% Median
42 28% 73%  
43 20% 46%  
44 10% 26%  
45 8% 16%  
46 4% 8% Majority
47 4% 4%  
48 0.3% 0.5%  
49 0.2% 0.2%  
50 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100%  
36 0.4% 99.9%  
37 0.4% 99.5%  
38 2% 99.1%  
39 6% 97%  
40 11% 91%  
41 6% 80% Median
42 28% 73%  
43 20% 46%  
44 10% 26%  
45 8% 16% Last Result
46 4% 8% Majority
47 4% 4%  
48 0.3% 0.5%  
49 0.2% 0.2%  
50 0% 0%  

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.3% 100%  
34 0.4% 99.7%  
35 3% 99.2%  
36 6% 97%  
37 9% 90%  
38 12% 81% Last Result
39 18% 69% Median
40 15% 50%  
41 23% 36%  
42 4% 13%  
43 6% 8%  
44 0.9% 2%  
45 0.5% 0.9%  
46 0.4% 0.4% Majority
47 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100% Last Result
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.9% 99.9%  
33 3% 99.0%  
34 6% 96%  
35 10% 90%  
36 26% 80% Median
37 16% 54%  
38 9% 38%  
39 14% 29%  
40 9% 15%  
41 4% 7%  
42 2% 2%  
43 0.5% 0.6%  
44 0% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.9% 99.9%  
33 3% 99.0%  
34 6% 96%  
35 10% 90%  
36 26% 80% Median
37 16% 54%  
38 9% 38%  
39 14% 29%  
40 9% 15% Last Result
41 4% 7%  
42 2% 2%  
43 0.5% 0.6%  
44 0% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0% 100%  
30 0.1% 99.9%  
31 0.5% 99.8%  
32 3% 99.3%  
33 4% 96%  
34 10% 92%  
35 12% 83% Median
36 12% 71%  
37 35% 59%  
38 12% 24%  
39 4% 12%  
40 6% 8%  
41 2% 3%  
42 0.5% 0.6%  
43 0% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.2% 99.9%  
32 3% 99.7%  
33 3% 97%  
34 8% 94%  
35 11% 86% Median
36 10% 75%  
37 35% 66%  
38 13% 31%  
39 5% 18%  
40 8% 12%  
41 3% 4%  
42 1.1% 1.3%  
43 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
44 0% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0% 100%  
30 0.1% 99.9%  
31 0.5% 99.8%  
32 3% 99.3%  
33 4% 96%  
34 10% 92%  
35 12% 83% Median
36 12% 71%  
37 35% 59%  
38 12% 24% Last Result
39 4% 12%  
40 6% 8%  
41 2% 3%  
42 0.5% 0.6%  
43 0% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0.1% 100%  
26 2% 99.9%  
27 0.9% 98%  
28 5% 97%  
29 11% 92%  
30 14% 82% Median
31 29% 68%  
32 14% 39%  
33 14% 26%  
34 8% 12%  
35 3% 4%  
36 0.6% 1.2%  
37 0.6% 0.7%  
38 0% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 2% 99.9%  
27 0.9% 98%  
28 5% 97%  
29 11% 92%  
30 14% 82% Median
31 29% 68%  
32 14% 39%  
33 14% 26% Last Result
34 8% 12%  
35 3% 4%  
36 0.6% 1.2%  
37 0.6% 0.7%  
38 0% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0% 100%  
15 0.2% 99.9%  
16 0.2% 99.8%  
17 3% 99.5%  
18 4% 97%  
19 11% 92%  
20 27% 82% Median
21 20% 55%  
22 18% 35%  
23 11% 17%  
24 4% 6%  
25 0.8% 1.4% Last Result
26 0.5% 0.5%  
27 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations