Opinion Poll by Mediana for Delo, 7–9 December 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 24.9% 26.7% 24.7–28.9% 24.1–29.6% 23.6–30.1% 22.6–31.2%
Lista Marjana Šarca 12.6% 15.9% 14.3–17.8% 13.8–18.3% 13.4–18.8% 12.6–19.7%
Levica 9.3% 14.9% 13.3–16.8% 12.9–17.3% 12.5–17.7% 11.8–18.6%
Socialni demokrati 9.9% 12.1% 10.7–13.8% 10.2–14.3% 9.9–14.7% 9.2–15.6%
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7.2% 7.2% 6.1–8.6% 5.8–9.0% 5.5–9.3% 5.0–10.0%
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 4.9% 5.6% 4.6–6.9% 4.4–7.3% 4.2–7.6% 3.7–8.2%
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5.1% 5.1% 4.1–6.3% 3.9–6.6% 3.7–6.9% 3.3–7.6%
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4.2% 3.7% 2.9–4.7% 2.7–5.0% 2.5–5.3% 2.2–5.9%
Stranka modernega centra 9.7% 1.5% 1.1–2.3% 1.0–2.5% 0.9–2.8% 0.7–3.2%
Slovenska ljudska stranka 2.6% 1.1% 0.8–1.8% 0.7–2.0% 0.6–2.2% 0.4–2.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 25 25 23–28 22–28 22–29 21–30
Lista Marjana Šarca 13 15 13–17 13–17 12–18 12–19
Levica 9 14 12–16 12–16 11–17 11–18
Socialni demokrati 10 11 10–13 10–13 9–13 8–15
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7 7 5–8 5–8 5–8 4–9
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 5 5 4–6 4–6 4–7 0–7
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5 4 4–6 0–6 0–6 0–7
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4 0 0–4 0–4 0–5 0–5
Stranka modernega centra 10 0 0 0 0 0
Slovenska ljudska stranka 0 0 0 0 0 0

Slovenska demokratska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 2% 99.8%  
22 3% 98%  
23 6% 95%  
24 19% 89%  
25 24% 69% Last Result, Median
26 20% 46%  
27 12% 25%  
28 9% 13%  
29 2% 3%  
30 1.2% 1.5%  
31 0.1% 0.2%  
32 0.1% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.4% 100%  
12 4% 99.6%  
13 10% 96% Last Result
14 30% 86%  
15 34% 56% Median
16 10% 22%  
17 9% 12%  
18 2% 3%  
19 0.8% 0.9%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Levica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 0.4% 100%  
11 3% 99.6%  
12 7% 97%  
13 33% 90%  
14 31% 57% Median
15 9% 26%  
16 12% 17%  
17 3% 4%  
18 0.7% 0.8%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.6% 100%  
9 4% 99.3%  
10 22% 95% Last Result
11 34% 73% Median
12 24% 39%  
13 13% 15%  
14 1.3% 2%  
15 0.6% 0.7%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.8% 100%  
5 9% 99.2%  
6 38% 90%  
7 30% 52% Last Result, Median
8 20% 22%  
9 2% 2%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.9% 100%  
1 0% 99.1%  
2 0% 99.1%  
3 1.1% 99.1%  
4 27% 98%  
5 37% 71% Last Result, Median
6 30% 33%  
7 3% 4%  
8 0.3% 0.3%  
9 0% 0%  

Stranka Alenke Bratušek

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 7% 100%  
1 0% 93%  
2 0% 93%  
3 2% 93%  
4 42% 91% Median
5 38% 49% Last Result
6 9% 10%  
7 0.8% 0.9%  
8 0% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Slovenska nacionalna stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 71% 100% Median
1 0% 29%  
2 0% 29%  
3 4% 29%  
4 22% 25% Last Result
5 3% 3%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Stranka modernega centra

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka modernega centra page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Slovenska ljudska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska ljudska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 43 45 45% 42–48 42–49 41–50 40–51
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra 50 42 2% 40–45 39–45 38–45 36–47
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca 38 40 0.5% 38–43 37–44 36–45 35–46
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 35 37 0% 35–41 35–41 34–42 33–44
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 45 37 0% 35–41 35–41 34–42 33–44
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra 43 35 0% 33–38 32–38 31–39 30–41
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 30 33 0% 31–35 30–36 29–36 28–38
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 40 33 0% 31–35 30–36 29–36 28–38
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 28 31 0% 29–34 28–34 28–35 26–37
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 38 31 0% 29–34 28–34 28–35 26–37
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati 23 26 0% 24–28 23–29 23–30 22–31
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 33 26 0% 24–28 23–29 23–30 22–31
Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 25 16 0% 14–18 14–19 13–19 12–20

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.2% 99.9%  
40 0.6% 99.7%  
41 2% 99.2%  
42 9% 97%  
43 11% 89% Last Result
44 18% 78%  
45 15% 60% Median
46 17% 45% Majority
47 14% 28%  
48 9% 14%  
49 2% 5%  
50 3% 4%  
51 0.7% 0.8%  
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.2% 100%  
36 0.7% 99.8%  
37 0.8% 99.1%  
38 2% 98%  
39 5% 96%  
40 19% 91%  
41 16% 72%  
42 14% 55% Median
43 15% 42%  
44 11% 27%  
45 13% 16%  
46 1.4% 2% Majority
47 0.6% 0.9%  
48 0.2% 0.4%  
49 0.2% 0.2%  
50 0% 0% Last Result

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.4% 99.9%  
36 3% 99.5%  
37 4% 96%  
38 10% 92% Last Result
39 19% 82%  
40 25% 62% Median
41 14% 38%  
42 12% 24%  
43 5% 12%  
44 5% 8%  
45 3% 3%  
46 0.4% 0.5% Majority
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.3% 100%  
32 0.2% 99.7%  
33 0.9% 99.5%  
34 3% 98.6%  
35 15% 96% Last Result
36 13% 80%  
37 18% 68%  
38 13% 50% Median
39 15% 37%  
40 7% 21%  
41 11% 14%  
42 2% 3%  
43 1.0% 2%  
44 0.4% 0.6%  
45 0.2% 0.2%  
46 0% 0% Majority

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.3% 100%  
32 0.2% 99.7%  
33 0.9% 99.5%  
34 3% 98.6%  
35 15% 96%  
36 13% 80%  
37 18% 68%  
38 13% 50% Median
39 15% 37%  
40 7% 21%  
41 11% 14%  
42 2% 3%  
43 1.0% 2%  
44 0.4% 0.6%  
45 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
46 0% 0% Majority

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.3% 99.8%  
30 0.5% 99.6%  
31 2% 99.0%  
32 5% 97%  
33 9% 92%  
34 22% 83%  
35 12% 61% Median
36 16% 49%  
37 21% 33%  
38 8% 12%  
39 4% 5%  
40 0.5% 1.1%  
41 0.5% 0.6%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0% Last Result

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.3% 99.9%  
28 0.7% 99.7%  
29 2% 98.9%  
30 7% 97% Last Result
31 23% 90%  
32 16% 67%  
33 19% 51% Median
34 12% 32%  
35 15% 21%  
36 3% 6%  
37 1.0% 2%  
38 1.1% 1.4%  
39 0.3% 0.3%  
40 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.3% 99.9%  
28 0.7% 99.7%  
29 2% 98.9%  
30 7% 97%  
31 23% 90%  
32 16% 67%  
33 19% 51% Median
34 12% 32%  
35 15% 21%  
36 3% 6%  
37 1.0% 2%  
38 1.1% 1.4%  
39 0.3% 0.3%  
40 0% 0% Last Result

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.2% 100%  
25 0.1% 99.8%  
26 0.4% 99.7%  
27 2% 99.3%  
28 6% 98% Last Result
29 20% 92%  
30 14% 71%  
31 12% 57% Median
32 18% 45%  
33 16% 26%  
34 7% 11%  
35 1.1% 3%  
36 1.4% 2%  
37 0.8% 0.8%  
38 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.2% 100%  
25 0.1% 99.8%  
26 0.4% 99.7%  
27 2% 99.3%  
28 6% 98%  
29 20% 92%  
30 14% 71%  
31 12% 57% Median
32 18% 45%  
33 16% 26%  
34 7% 11%  
35 1.1% 3%  
36 1.4% 2%  
37 0.8% 0.8%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.3% 100%  
22 1.4% 99.7%  
23 4% 98% Last Result
24 14% 95%  
25 23% 80%  
26 17% 58% Median
27 23% 41%  
28 11% 18%  
29 4% 7%  
30 2% 3%  
31 2% 2%  
32 0.1% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.3% 100%  
22 1.4% 99.7%  
23 4% 98%  
24 14% 95%  
25 23% 80%  
26 17% 58% Median
27 23% 41%  
28 11% 18%  
29 4% 7%  
30 2% 3%  
31 2% 2%  
32 0.1% 0.1%  
33 0% 0% Last Result

Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 0.3% 99.9%  
12 0.6% 99.6%  
13 2% 99.0%  
14 8% 97%  
15 25% 89%  
16 21% 64% Median
17 16% 43%  
18 20% 27%  
19 5% 7%  
20 1.2% 1.5%  
21 0.3% 0.3%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations