Opinion Poll by Parsifal for Nova 24TV, 7–9 December 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 24.9% 31.8% 29.6–34.0% 29.0–34.7% 28.5–35.3% 27.5–36.4%
Lista Marjana Šarca 12.6% 17.3% 15.6–19.2% 15.2–19.8% 14.8–20.3% 14.0–21.2%
Socialni demokrati 9.9% 12.5% 11.1–14.2% 10.7–14.7% 10.3–15.1% 9.6–16.0%
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7.2% 10.2% 8.9–11.8% 8.5–12.2% 8.2–12.6% 7.6–13.4%
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 4.9% 8.7% 7.5–10.2% 7.1–10.6% 6.8–10.9% 6.3–11.7%
Levica 9.3% 7.6% 6.4–9.0% 6.1–9.4% 5.9–9.7% 5.3–10.4%
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5.1% 4.1% 3.3–5.2% 3.1–5.5% 2.9–5.8% 2.6–6.4%
Slovenska ljudska stranka 2.6% 2.6% 2.0–3.6% 1.8–3.8% 1.7–4.1% 1.4–4.5%
Stranka modernega centra 9.7% 1.1% 0.7–1.8% 0.6–2.0% 0.6–2.2% 0.4–2.5%
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4.2% 0.7% 0.4–1.3% 0.4–1.4% 0.3–1.6% 0.2–1.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 25 31 28–33 28–34 27–34 26–36
Lista Marjana Šarca 13 17 15–19 14–19 14–20 14–20
Socialni demokrati 10 12 11–13 10–14 10–14 9–15
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7 10 8–11 8–12 7–12 7–13
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 5 8 7–9 6–10 6–10 6–11
Levica 9 7 6–9 5–9 5–9 5–10
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5 4 0–5 0–5 0–5 0–6
Slovenska ljudska stranka 0 0 0 0 0–3 0–4
Stranka modernega centra 10 0 0 0 0 0
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4 0 0 0 0 0

Slovenska demokratska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100% Last Result
26 0.9% 99.9%  
27 2% 99.0%  
28 15% 97%  
29 9% 81%  
30 13% 73%  
31 21% 60% Median
32 26% 39%  
33 7% 12%  
34 3% 5%  
35 1.0% 2%  
36 0.7% 1.1%  
37 0.3% 0.4%  
38 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0% 100%  
13 0.4% 99.9% Last Result
14 6% 99.5%  
15 7% 94%  
16 20% 87%  
17 30% 67% Median
18 23% 37%  
19 9% 14%  
20 4% 4%  
21 0.4% 0.4%  
22 0% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100%  
9 1.4% 99.9%  
10 7% 98.5% Last Result
11 30% 92%  
12 26% 62% Median
13 27% 36%  
14 7% 9%  
15 2% 2%  
16 0.3% 0.3%  
17 0% 0%  

Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.1% 100%  
7 3% 99.9% Last Result
8 12% 97%  
9 25% 84%  
10 47% 60% Median
11 6% 13%  
12 6% 6%  
13 0.7% 0.8%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.2% 100% Last Result
6 6% 99.8%  
7 25% 94%  
8 35% 70% Median
9 25% 34%  
10 8% 10%  
11 1.3% 2%  
12 0.3% 0.3%  
13 0% 0%  

Levica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.2% 100%  
5 7% 99.8%  
6 18% 93%  
7 48% 76% Median
8 18% 28%  
9 9% 10% Last Result
10 1.1% 1.2%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Stranka Alenke Bratušek

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 38% 100%  
1 0% 62%  
2 0% 62%  
3 4% 62%  
4 43% 59% Median
5 14% 16% Last Result
6 1.3% 1.3%  
7 0% 0%  

Slovenska ljudska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska ljudska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 96% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 4%  
2 0% 4%  
3 3% 4%  
4 0.7% 0.8%  
5 0% 0%  

Stranka modernega centra

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka modernega centra page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Slovenska nacionalna stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 43 56 100% 53–59 53–59 52–60 51–61
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra 50 49 90% 46–53 45–53 45–53 43–55
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca 38 47 89% 45–51 44–51 44–52 43–53
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 35 47 68% 44–50 43–50 42–51 41–52
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 45 47 68% 44–50 43–50 42–51 41–52
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra 43 39 0.1% 36–43 35–43 35–44 33–45
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 30 39 0% 36–41 35–42 35–42 33–44
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 40 39 0% 36–41 35–42 35–42 33–44
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 28 38 0% 35–40 34–41 33–41 32–42
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 38 38 0% 35–40 34–41 33–41 32–42
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati 23 29 0% 26–31 26–32 25–33 24–33
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 33 29 0% 26–31 26–32 25–33 24–33
Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 25 20 0% 18–22 18–23 17–23 16–24

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0% 100% Last Result
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100% Majority
47 0% 100%  
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.1% 99.9%  
50 0.2% 99.8%  
51 1.3% 99.6%  
52 3% 98%  
53 10% 95%  
54 13% 85%  
55 17% 73%  
56 23% 56% Median
57 10% 32%  
58 10% 23%  
59 9% 13%  
60 2% 4%  
61 2% 2%  
62 0.2% 0.4%  
63 0.1% 0.2%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.1% 99.9%  
43 0.4% 99.8%  
44 0.8% 99.5%  
45 8% 98.7%  
46 5% 90% Majority
47 8% 85%  
48 8% 77%  
49 21% 69%  
50 12% 48% Last Result
51 21% 37% Median
52 4% 15%  
53 10% 12%  
54 1.2% 2%  
55 0.4% 0.6%  
56 0.2% 0.3%  
57 0% 0%  

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100% Last Result
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 99.9%  
42 0.3% 99.9%  
43 0.8% 99.6%  
44 4% 98.8%  
45 6% 95%  
46 20% 89% Majority
47 20% 69%  
48 10% 49% Median
49 22% 39%  
50 6% 17%  
51 8% 11%  
52 2% 3%  
53 0.9% 1.3%  
54 0.2% 0.3%  
55 0.1% 0.2%  
56 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100% Last Result
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0.1% 100%  
41 2% 99.9%  
42 2% 98%  
43 5% 97%  
44 3% 91%  
45 20% 88%  
46 12% 68% Majority
47 19% 56% Median
48 17% 37%  
49 10% 21%  
50 7% 11%  
51 3% 4%  
52 0.6% 1.1%  
53 0.4% 0.4%  
54 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 2% 99.9%  
42 2% 98%  
43 5% 97%  
44 3% 91%  
45 20% 88% Last Result
46 12% 68% Majority
47 19% 56% Median
48 17% 37%  
49 10% 21%  
50 7% 11%  
51 3% 4%  
52 0.6% 1.1%  
53 0.4% 0.4%  
54 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.6% 99.9%  
34 0.7% 99.4%  
35 5% 98.6%  
36 5% 93%  
37 4% 89%  
38 11% 85%  
39 24% 74%  
40 8% 50%  
41 15% 42% Median
42 16% 27%  
43 8% 11% Last Result
44 2% 3%  
45 2% 2%  
46 0% 0.1% Majority
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100% Last Result
31 0% 100%  
32 0.1% 100%  
33 2% 99.9%  
34 0.8% 98%  
35 3% 98%  
36 10% 94%  
37 7% 84%  
38 27% 77%  
39 12% 50% Median
40 23% 38%  
41 9% 15%  
42 4% 6%  
43 1.0% 2%  
44 0.6% 0.9%  
45 0.3% 0.3%  
46 0% 0% Majority

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 2% 99.9%  
34 0.8% 98%  
35 3% 98%  
36 10% 94%  
37 7% 84%  
38 27% 77%  
39 12% 50% Median
40 23% 38% Last Result
41 9% 15%  
42 4% 6%  
43 1.0% 2%  
44 0.6% 0.9%  
45 0.3% 0.3%  
46 0% 0% Majority

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0.3% 100%  
32 0.5% 99.6%  
33 3% 99.1%  
34 4% 96%  
35 20% 92%  
36 13% 72%  
37 8% 59% Median
38 30% 51%  
39 10% 21%  
40 4% 11%  
41 7% 7%  
42 0.5% 0.8%  
43 0.2% 0.2%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.3% 100%  
32 0.5% 99.6%  
33 3% 99.1%  
34 4% 96%  
35 20% 92%  
36 13% 72%  
37 8% 59% Median
38 30% 51% Last Result
39 10% 21%  
40 4% 11%  
41 7% 7%  
42 0.5% 0.8%  
43 0.2% 0.2%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100% Last Result
24 0.8% 99.9%  
25 3% 99.1%  
26 7% 97%  
27 5% 90%  
28 22% 84%  
29 19% 62% Median
30 25% 43%  
31 11% 18%  
32 3% 6%  
33 3% 3%  
34 0.1% 0.4%  
35 0.2% 0.2%  
36 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.8% 99.9%  
25 3% 99.1%  
26 7% 97%  
27 5% 90%  
28 22% 84%  
29 19% 62% Median
30 25% 43%  
31 11% 18%  
32 3% 6%  
33 3% 3% Last Result
34 0.1% 0.4%  
35 0.2% 0.2%  
36 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 1.2% 99.9%  
17 3% 98.7%  
18 15% 96%  
19 21% 81%  
20 20% 59% Median
21 14% 39%  
22 18% 25%  
23 6% 7%  
24 1.2% 1.5%  
25 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations