Opinion Poll by Ninamedia for Dnevnik, 15–17 December 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 24.9% 30.3% 28.1–32.6% 27.5–33.2% 27.0–33.8% 26.0–34.9%
Socialni demokrati 9.9% 17.4% 15.7–19.4% 15.2–19.9% 14.8–20.4% 14.0–21.4%
Lista Marjana Šarca 12.6% 17.1% 15.4–19.1% 14.9–19.6% 14.5–20.1% 13.7–21.1%
Levica 9.3% 13.4% 11.9–15.2% 11.5–15.7% 11.1–16.2% 10.4–17.1%
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7.2% 5.6% 4.6–6.8% 4.3–7.2% 4.1–7.5% 3.7–8.2%
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 4.9% 5.4% 4.5–6.7% 4.2–7.1% 4.0–7.4% 3.6–8.0%
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5.1% 4.3% 3.4–5.4% 3.2–5.8% 3.0–6.1% 2.7–6.7%
Slovenska ljudska stranka 2.6% 3.1% 2.4–4.2% 2.2–4.5% 2.1–4.7% 1.8–5.3%
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4.2% 2.9% 2.2–3.8% 2.0–4.1% 1.9–4.4% 1.6–4.9%
Stranka modernega centra 9.7% 0.1% 0.1–0.6% 0.0–0.7% 0.0–0.8% 0.0–1.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 25 29 27–31 27–32 25–32 25–33
Socialni demokrati 10 16 15–18 14–19 14–20 13–20
Lista Marjana Šarca 13 16 14–18 13–18 13–18 13–20
Levica 9 13 11–14 10–15 10–15 9–16
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7 5 4–6 3–6 0–6 0–7
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 5 5 4–6 4–6 0–7 0–7
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5 4 0–5 0–5 0–5 0–6
Slovenska ljudska stranka 0 0 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–4
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4 0 0 0–3 0–4 0–4
Stranka modernega centra 10 0 0 0 0 0

Slovenska demokratska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100%  
24 0.2% 99.9%  
25 2% 99.8% Last Result
26 2% 97%  
27 11% 95%  
28 18% 84%  
29 27% 66% Median
30 17% 39%  
31 16% 22%  
32 5% 5%  
33 0.6% 0.8%  
34 0.1% 0.2%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100% Last Result
11 0% 100%  
12 0.4% 100%  
13 1.5% 99.6%  
14 7% 98%  
15 41% 91%  
16 14% 50% Median
17 7% 36%  
18 23% 30%  
19 4% 6%  
20 3% 3%  
21 0.1% 0.2%  
22 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.3% 100%  
13 7% 99.7% Last Result
14 8% 93%  
15 21% 85%  
16 31% 64% Median
17 19% 34%  
18 12% 14%  
19 1.2% 2%  
20 0.7% 1.0%  
21 0.3% 0.3%  
22 0% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Levica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.9% 100% Last Result
10 6% 99.1%  
11 13% 93%  
12 27% 80%  
13 40% 53% Median
14 7% 13%  
15 4% 5%  
16 1.2% 1.4%  
17 0.2% 0.2%  
18 0% 0%  

Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100%  
1 0% 96%  
2 0% 96%  
3 3% 96%  
4 38% 93%  
5 30% 55% Median
6 23% 25%  
7 1.4% 2% Last Result
8 0.3% 0.3%  
9 0% 0%  

Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100%  
1 0% 97%  
2 0% 97%  
3 0.3% 97%  
4 21% 97%  
5 39% 76% Last Result, Median
6 33% 37%  
7 4% 4%  
8 0.4% 0.4%  
9 0% 0%  

Stranka Alenke Bratušek

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 13% 100%  
1 0% 87%  
2 0% 87%  
3 3% 87%  
4 54% 84% Median
5 29% 30% Last Result
6 1.0% 1.0%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Slovenska ljudska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska ljudska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 84% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 16%  
2 0% 16%  
3 3% 16%  
4 13% 13%  
5 0.4% 0.4%  
6 0% 0%  

Slovenska nacionalna stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 92% 100% Median
1 0% 8%  
2 0% 8%  
3 4% 8%  
4 4% 4% Last Result
5 0.1% 0.2%  
6 0% 0%  

Stranka modernega centra

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka modernega centra page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 43 50 96% 48–53 47–53 45–54 43–55
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra 50 46 63% 42–48 41–49 41–49 40–51
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca 38 45 44% 42–47 42–48 41–48 39–50
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 35 42 4% 39–45 38–45 37–46 37–47
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 45 42 4% 39–45 38–45 37–46 37–47
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra 43 41 0.4% 37–44 37–44 36–45 34–45
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 28 37 0.1% 35–40 33–41 33–41 32–43
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 38 37 0.1% 35–40 33–41 33–41 32–43
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 30 36 0% 35–40 33–40 33–41 32–43
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 40 36 0% 35–40 33–40 33–41 32–43
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca 23 32 0% 30–35 29–36 28–36 28–37
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra 33 32 0% 30–35 29–36 28–36 28–37
Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 25 21 0% 19–24 18–24 18–25 16–26

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.7% 100% Last Result
44 1.1% 99.3%  
45 2% 98%  
46 0.8% 96% Majority
47 5% 95%  
48 15% 90%  
49 21% 75%  
50 5% 54% Median
51 15% 49%  
52 16% 34%  
53 14% 17%  
54 2% 3%  
55 0.3% 0.6%  
56 0.1% 0.3%  
57 0.1% 0.2%  
58 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.2% 99.9%  
40 2% 99.7%  
41 4% 98%  
42 7% 94%  
43 8% 87%  
44 11% 79%  
45 6% 69%  
46 28% 63% Median, Majority
47 13% 35%  
48 12% 22%  
49 8% 10%  
50 1.3% 2% Last Result
51 0.7% 0.8%  
52 0% 0.1%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100% Last Result
39 0.7% 100%  
40 0.9% 99.2%  
41 2% 98%  
42 12% 96%  
43 5% 84%  
44 24% 79%  
45 11% 55% Median
46 9% 44% Majority
47 26% 36%  
48 7% 9%  
49 2% 2%  
50 0.4% 0.6%  
51 0.1% 0.2%  
52 0% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100% Last Result
36 0.1% 99.8%  
37 2% 99.7%  
38 6% 97%  
39 4% 92%  
40 13% 87%  
41 17% 74%  
42 24% 57% Median
43 9% 33%  
44 11% 24%  
45 9% 13%  
46 3% 4% Majority
47 1.0% 1.3%  
48 0.1% 0.3%  
49 0.2% 0.2%  
50 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.1% 99.8%  
37 2% 99.7%  
38 6% 97%  
39 4% 92%  
40 13% 87%  
41 17% 74%  
42 24% 57% Median
43 9% 33%  
44 11% 24%  
45 9% 13% Last Result
46 3% 4% Majority
47 1.0% 1.3%  
48 0.1% 0.3%  
49 0.2% 0.2%  
50 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.4% 99.9%  
35 0.9% 99.5%  
36 1.2% 98.6%  
37 8% 97%  
38 6% 90%  
39 6% 83%  
40 20% 77%  
41 13% 58% Median
42 18% 45%  
43 13% 26% Last Result
44 9% 13%  
45 4% 5%  
46 0.3% 0.4% Majority
47 0.1% 0.2%  
48 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0.1% 99.9%  
32 2% 99.8%  
33 4% 98%  
34 3% 94%  
35 15% 91%  
36 18% 75%  
37 9% 57% Median
38 20% 48%  
39 12% 27%  
40 6% 16%  
41 8% 9%  
42 1.0% 2%  
43 0.5% 0.7%  
44 0.1% 0.2%  
45 0% 0.1%  
46 0% 0.1% Majority
47 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100%  
31 0.1% 99.9%  
32 2% 99.8%  
33 4% 98%  
34 3% 94%  
35 15% 91%  
36 18% 75%  
37 9% 57% Median
38 20% 48% Last Result
39 12% 27%  
40 6% 16%  
41 8% 9%  
42 1.0% 2%  
43 0.5% 0.7%  
44 0.1% 0.2%  
45 0% 0.1%  
46 0% 0.1% Majority
47 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100% Last Result
31 0.1% 99.9%  
32 0.4% 99.8%  
33 5% 99.4%  
34 4% 94%  
35 16% 90%  
36 27% 74%  
37 14% 47% Median
38 14% 33%  
39 8% 19%  
40 8% 12%  
41 2% 4%  
42 0.8% 1.3%  
43 0.3% 0.5%  
44 0.1% 0.2%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0% Majority

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100%  
31 0.1% 99.9%  
32 0.4% 99.8%  
33 5% 99.4%  
34 4% 94%  
35 16% 90%  
36 27% 74%  
37 14% 47% Median
38 14% 33%  
39 8% 19%  
40 8% 12% Last Result
41 2% 4%  
42 0.8% 1.3%  
43 0.3% 0.5%  
44 0.1% 0.2%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0% Majority

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.1% 99.9%  
28 4% 99.8%  
29 4% 96%  
30 16% 92%  
31 19% 76%  
32 16% 56% Median
33 15% 41%  
34 12% 25%  
35 5% 14%  
36 7% 8%  
37 0.6% 1.0%  
38 0.2% 0.4%  
39 0.1% 0.2%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.1% 99.9%  
28 4% 99.8%  
29 4% 96%  
30 16% 92%  
31 19% 76%  
32 16% 56% Median
33 15% 41% Last Result
34 12% 25%  
35 5% 14%  
36 7% 8%  
37 0.6% 1.0%  
38 0.2% 0.4%  
39 0.1% 0.2%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 0.9% 99.8%  
17 0.8% 98.9%  
18 4% 98%  
19 7% 94%  
20 24% 87%  
21 21% 62% Median
22 18% 41%  
23 9% 23%  
24 11% 14%  
25 1.5% 3% Last Result
26 2% 2%  
27 0% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations