Opinion Poll by Parsifal for Nova 24TV, 21–23 December 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 24.9% 32.4% 30.2–34.6% 29.6–35.2% 29.1–35.8% 28.1–36.9%
Lista Marjana Šarca 12.6% 15.3% 13.7–17.1% 13.3–17.6% 12.9–18.1% 12.2–19.0%
Socialni demokrati 9.9% 12.4% 11.0–14.1% 10.6–14.6% 10.3–15.0% 9.6–15.8%
Levica 9.3% 11.1% 9.8–12.7% 9.4–13.1% 9.1–13.5% 8.4–14.3%
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 4.9% 9.9% 8.6–11.4% 8.3–11.9% 8.0–12.3% 7.4–13.0%
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7.2% 4.0% 3.2–5.0% 3.0–5.3% 2.8–5.6% 2.5–6.2%
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5.1% 3.7% 3.0–4.7% 2.7–5.0% 2.6–5.3% 2.3–5.8%
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4.2% 2.2% 1.7–3.1% 1.5–3.4% 1.4–3.6% 1.2–4.0%
Stranka modernega centra 9.7% 1.8% 1.4–2.7% 1.2–2.9% 1.1–3.1% 0.9–3.5%
Slovenska ljudska stranka 2.6% 1.7% 1.2–2.5% 1.1–2.7% 1.0–2.9% 0.8–3.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 25 32 29–35 29–36 28–36 27–38
Lista Marjana Šarca 13 15 13–17 13–17 13–18 12–19
Socialni demokrati 10 12 10–14 10–14 10–14 9–16
Levica 9 11 9–12 9–13 8–13 8–14
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 5 10 8–11 8–12 7–12 7–13
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7 4 0–5 0–5 0–5 0–6
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5 0 0–4 0–5 0–5 0–5
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4 0 0 0 0 0
Stranka modernega centra 10 0 0 0 0 0
Slovenska ljudska stranka 0 0 0 0 0 0

Slovenska demokratska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0% 100% Last Result
26 0.1% 100%  
27 1.3% 99.8%  
28 2% 98.6%  
29 8% 96%  
30 9% 88%  
31 21% 79%  
32 22% 58% Median
33 15% 37%  
34 12% 22%  
35 5% 10%  
36 4% 5%  
37 0.5% 1.1%  
38 0.4% 0.5%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.3% 100%  
12 1.4% 99.7%  
13 16% 98% Last Result
14 25% 83%  
15 14% 58% Median
16 25% 44%  
17 16% 19%  
18 2% 3%  
19 0.5% 0.7%  
20 0.2% 0.2%  
21 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100%  
9 1.3% 99.9%  
10 11% 98.6% Last Result
11 22% 88%  
12 24% 65% Median
13 27% 42%  
14 12% 14%  
15 2% 2%  
16 0.5% 0.5%  
17 0% 0%  

Levica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.2% 100%  
8 2% 99.8%  
9 15% 97% Last Result
10 30% 82%  
11 27% 52% Median
12 18% 25%  
13 5% 7%  
14 0.9% 1.2%  
15 0.2% 0.2%  
16 0% 0%  

Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0% 100% Last Result
6 0.2% 100%  
7 2% 99.8%  
8 19% 97%  
9 26% 78%  
10 30% 52% Median
11 17% 22%  
12 5% 6%  
13 0.8% 1.0%  
14 0.2% 0.2%  
15 0% 0%  

Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 45% 100%  
1 0% 55%  
2 0% 55%  
3 0.7% 55%  
4 41% 54% Median
5 12% 13%  
6 0.9% 0.9%  
7 0% 0% Last Result

Stranka Alenke Bratušek

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 68% 100% Median
1 0% 32%  
2 0% 32%  
3 1.5% 32%  
4 23% 31%  
5 7% 7% Last Result
6 0.4% 0.4%  
7 0% 0%  

Slovenska nacionalna stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.6% 100% Median
1 0% 0.4%  
2 0% 0.4%  
3 0% 0.4%  
4 0.4% 0.4% Last Result
5 0% 0%  

Stranka modernega centra

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka modernega centra page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Slovenska ljudska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska ljudska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 43 56 100% 54–60 53–60 52–61 50–63
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca 38 47 77% 44–50 44–50 42–52 41–53
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra 50 41 1.4% 37–43 37–44 36–45 34–47
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 35 39 0.1% 36–42 35–43 34–44 32–45
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 45 39 0.1% 36–42 35–43 34–44 32–45
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra 43 38 0.1% 35–41 34–42 33–43 32–44
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 28 37 0% 34–40 33–41 32–41 32–42
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 38 37 0% 34–40 33–41 32–41 32–42
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 30 29 0% 26–33 25–34 24–34 23–36
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 40 29 0% 26–33 25–34 24–34 23–36
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati 23 27 0% 24–30 24–30 23–31 23–32
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 33 27 0% 24–30 24–30 23–31 23–32
Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 25 21 0% 20–24 19–24 18–25 17–26

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0% 100% Last Result
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100% Majority
47 0% 100%  
48 0% 100%  
49 0.2% 100%  
50 0.3% 99.8%  
51 2% 99.5%  
52 2% 98%  
53 4% 96%  
54 10% 91%  
55 13% 81%  
56 19% 68%  
57 16% 50% Median
58 12% 34%  
59 11% 21%  
60 5% 10%  
61 2% 5%  
62 1.3% 2%  
63 0.8% 1.0%  
64 0.1% 0.2%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100% Last Result
39 0% 100%  
40 0.1% 99.9%  
41 0.7% 99.8%  
42 2% 99.1%  
43 2% 97%  
44 7% 96%  
45 11% 88%  
46 19% 77% Majority
47 17% 58% Median
48 17% 40%  
49 11% 24%  
50 8% 12%  
51 2% 5%  
52 2% 3%  
53 0.4% 0.9%  
54 0.4% 0.5%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100%  
34 0.4% 99.9%  
35 0.7% 99.5%  
36 3% 98.8%  
37 8% 96%  
38 14% 88%  
39 9% 74%  
40 14% 65%  
41 20% 52% Median
42 15% 32%  
43 8% 17%  
44 5% 9%  
45 3% 4%  
46 0.8% 1.4% Majority
47 0.5% 0.6%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0% Last Result

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.6% 99.9%  
33 0.8% 99.3%  
34 3% 98.6%  
35 3% 95% Last Result
36 8% 92%  
37 13% 84%  
38 16% 71%  
39 9% 54%  
40 12% 46%  
41 16% 34% Median
42 10% 18%  
43 4% 7%  
44 2% 3%  
45 0.7% 0.8%  
46 0.1% 0.1% Majority
47 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.6% 99.9%  
33 0.8% 99.3%  
34 3% 98.6%  
35 3% 95%  
36 8% 92%  
37 13% 84%  
38 16% 71%  
39 9% 55%  
40 12% 46%  
41 16% 34% Median
42 10% 18%  
43 4% 7%  
44 2% 3%  
45 0.7% 0.8% Last Result
46 0.1% 0.1% Majority
47 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0% 100%  
32 0.8% 99.9%  
33 2% 99.1%  
34 7% 97%  
35 4% 90%  
36 10% 86%  
37 17% 76% Median
38 19% 59%  
39 13% 40%  
40 9% 27%  
41 12% 19%  
42 4% 7%  
43 2% 3% Last Result
44 0.7% 1.0%  
45 0.3% 0.3%  
46 0% 0.1% Majority
47 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0% 100%  
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.3% 99.9%  
32 3% 99.6%  
33 4% 97%  
34 13% 93%  
35 9% 79%  
36 15% 70%  
37 20% 55% Median
38 15% 35%  
39 9% 21%  
40 4% 11%  
41 7% 8%  
42 0.7% 1.0%  
43 0.2% 0.3%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.3% 99.9%  
32 3% 99.6%  
33 4% 97%  
34 13% 93%  
35 9% 79%  
36 15% 70%  
37 20% 55% Median
38 15% 35% Last Result
39 9% 21%  
40 4% 11%  
41 7% 8%  
42 0.7% 1.0%  
43 0.2% 0.3%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.2% 100%  
23 1.4% 99.8%  
24 1.0% 98%  
25 3% 97%  
26 5% 94%  
27 11% 89%  
28 15% 78%  
29 14% 63%  
30 14% 50% Last Result
31 13% 36% Median
32 12% 22%  
33 5% 10%  
34 4% 6%  
35 0.9% 1.4%  
36 0.5% 0.5%  
37 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.2% 100%  
23 1.4% 99.8%  
24 1.0% 98%  
25 3% 97%  
26 5% 94%  
27 11% 89%  
28 15% 78%  
29 14% 63%  
30 14% 50%  
31 13% 36% Median
32 12% 22%  
33 5% 11%  
34 4% 6%  
35 0.9% 1.4%  
36 0.5% 0.5%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0% Last Result

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.4% 99.9%  
23 3% 99.6% Last Result
24 7% 97%  
25 12% 90%  
26 14% 78%  
27 21% 64% Median
28 18% 43%  
29 11% 25%  
30 11% 14%  
31 2% 3%  
32 0.9% 1.2%  
33 0.2% 0.2%  
34 0% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.4% 99.9%  
23 3% 99.6%  
24 7% 97%  
25 12% 90%  
26 14% 78%  
27 21% 64% Median
28 18% 43%  
29 11% 25%  
30 11% 14%  
31 2% 3%  
32 0.9% 1.2%  
33 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
34 0% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.6% 99.9%  
18 2% 99.3%  
19 6% 97%  
20 21% 91%  
21 20% 70%  
22 13% 50% Median
23 19% 36%  
24 13% 17%  
25 3% 4% Last Result
26 0.8% 1.2%  
27 0.3% 0.3%  
28 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations