Opinion Poll by Mediana for Delo, 1–28 December 2020
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions

Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slovenska demokratska stranka | 24.9% | 27.9% | 25.9–30.2% | 25.3–30.8% | 24.8–31.4% | 23.8–32.4% |
| Socialni demokrati | 9.9% | 16.4% | 14.8–18.3% | 14.3–18.9% | 13.9–19.3% | 13.1–20.3% |
| Levica | 9.3% | 13.6% | 12.1–15.4% | 11.7–15.9% | 11.3–16.4% | 10.6–17.2% |
| Lista Marjana Šarca | 12.6% | 11.8% | 10.4–13.5% | 10.0–14.0% | 9.6–14.4% | 9.0–15.2% |
| Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati | 7.2% | 9.0% | 7.7–10.5% | 7.4–10.9% | 7.1–11.3% | 6.5–12.1% |
| Stranka Alenke Bratušek | 5.1% | 3.7% | 2.9–4.7% | 2.7–5.0% | 2.5–5.3% | 2.2–5.9% |
| Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 4.9% | 2.7% | 2.0–3.6% | 1.9–3.9% | 1.7–4.1% | 1.4–4.6% |
| Slovenska ljudska stranka | 2.6% | 2.4% | 1.8–3.3% | 1.6–3.6% | 1.5–3.8% | 1.2–4.3% |
| Slovenska nacionalna stranka | 4.2% | 2.1% | 1.6–3.0% | 1.4–3.2% | 1.3–3.5% | 1.1–3.9% |
| Stranka modernega centra | 9.7% | 1.5% | 1.1–2.3% | 1.0–2.5% | 0.9–2.7% | 0.7–3.2% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats


Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slovenska demokratska stranka | 25 | 28 | 25–31 | 25–31 | 24–31 | 23–32 |
| Socialni demokrati | 10 | 16 | 15–18 | 14–19 | 13–20 | 13–20 |
| Levica | 9 | 13 | 11–15 | 11–16 | 10–16 | 10–17 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca | 13 | 11 | 10–13 | 10–13 | 9–14 | 9–15 |
| Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati | 7 | 9 | 7–10 | 7–11 | 7–11 | 6–12 |
| Stranka Alenke Bratušek | 5 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 | 0–6 |
| Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 |
| Slovenska ljudska stranka | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 |
| Slovenska nacionalna stranka | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Stranka modernega centra | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Slovenska demokratska stranka
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 24 | 3% | 99.4% | |
| 25 | 8% | 97% | Last Result |
| 26 | 14% | 89% | |
| 27 | 14% | 74% | |
| 28 | 26% | 61% | Median |
| 29 | 10% | 35% | |
| 30 | 14% | 25% | |
| 31 | 9% | 11% | |
| 32 | 2% | 2% | |
| 33 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 34 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% |
Socialni demokrati
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 13 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 14 | 7% | 97% | |
| 15 | 23% | 90% | |
| 16 | 21% | 67% | Median |
| 17 | 25% | 46% | |
| 18 | 11% | 21% | |
| 19 | 6% | 9% | |
| 20 | 3% | 3% | |
| 21 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Levica
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 0.2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 10 | 3% | 99.8% | |
| 11 | 8% | 97% | |
| 12 | 27% | 89% | |
| 13 | 25% | 62% | Median |
| 14 | 18% | 37% | |
| 15 | 11% | 19% | |
| 16 | 7% | 8% | |
| 17 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 18 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 9 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 10 | 31% | 97% | |
| 11 | 24% | 66% | Median |
| 12 | 20% | 42% | |
| 13 | 18% | 21% | Last Result |
| 14 | 2% | 3% | |
| 15 | 1.0% | 1.4% | |
| 16 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 2% | 100% | |
| 7 | 14% | 98% | Last Result |
| 8 | 30% | 84% | |
| 9 | 31% | 54% | Median |
| 10 | 15% | 23% | |
| 11 | 6% | 9% | |
| 12 | 2% | 2% | |
| 13 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Stranka Alenke Bratušek
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 54% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 46% | |
| 2 | 0% | 46% | |
| 3 | 2% | 46% | |
| 4 | 39% | 44% | |
| 5 | 4% | 4% | Last Result |
| 6 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 2% | |
| 3 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 4 | 2% | 2% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.2% | Last Result |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Slovenska ljudska stranka
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska ljudska stranka page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 2% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 4 | 2% | 2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Slovenska nacionalna stranka
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.6% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 4 | 0.3% | 0.3% | Last Result |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Stranka modernega centra
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka modernega centra page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions

Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 43 | 39 | 0.1% | 37–42 | 36–43 | 36–44 | 35–45 |
| Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca | 38 | 39 | 0.1% | 37–42 | 36–43 | 36–44 | 34–45 |
| Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra | 50 | 39 | 0% | 36–41 | 34–42 | 34–43 | 32–44 |
| Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 35 | 36 | 0% | 34–40 | 34–40 | 33–41 | 31–42 |
| Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra | 45 | 36 | 0% | 34–40 | 34–40 | 33–41 | 31–42 |
| Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati | 30 | 36 | 0% | 34–40 | 33–40 | 33–41 | 31–41 |
| Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra | 40 | 36 | 0% | 34–40 | 33–40 | 33–41 | 31–41 |
| Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra | 43 | 30 | 0% | 27–32 | 26–33 | 25–34 | 24–35 |
| Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 28 | 27 | 0% | 25–31 | 25–31 | 24–32 | 23–33 |
| Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra | 38 | 27 | 0% | 25–31 | 25–31 | 24–32 | 23–33 |
| Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca | 23 | 27 | 0% | 25–30 | 25–31 | 24–32 | 23–33 |
| Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra | 33 | 27 | 0% | 25–30 | 25–31 | 24–32 | 23–33 |
| Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra | 25 | 16 | 0% | 15–19 | 14–20 | 14–20 | 13–21 |
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 35 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 36 | 5% | 98% | |
| 37 | 13% | 93% | |
| 38 | 20% | 80% | |
| 39 | 11% | 60% | Median |
| 40 | 21% | 49% | |
| 41 | 11% | 28% | |
| 42 | 9% | 17% | |
| 43 | 4% | 7% | Last Result |
| 44 | 2% | 3% | |
| 45 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 47 | 0% | 0% |
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 35 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 36 | 5% | 98% | |
| 37 | 13% | 92% | |
| 38 | 21% | 79% | Last Result |
| 39 | 11% | 58% | Median |
| 40 | 21% | 47% | |
| 41 | 10% | 26% | |
| 42 | 9% | 16% | |
| 43 | 4% | 7% | |
| 44 | 2% | 3% | |
| 45 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 47 | 0% | 0% |
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 33 | 0.6% | 99.4% | |
| 34 | 5% | 98.8% | |
| 35 | 3% | 94% | |
| 36 | 15% | 91% | Median |
| 37 | 8% | 75% | |
| 38 | 15% | 67% | |
| 39 | 23% | 52% | |
| 40 | 17% | 30% | |
| 41 | 6% | 13% | |
| 42 | 4% | 7% | |
| 43 | 2% | 3% | |
| 44 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 45 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 32 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 33 | 3% | 98% | |
| 34 | 10% | 95% | |
| 35 | 21% | 85% | Last Result |
| 36 | 25% | 63% | Median |
| 37 | 9% | 39% | |
| 38 | 11% | 30% | |
| 39 | 7% | 19% | |
| 40 | 9% | 12% | |
| 41 | 3% | 3% | |
| 42 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 43 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 44 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% |
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 32 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 33 | 3% | 98% | |
| 34 | 10% | 95% | |
| 35 | 21% | 85% | |
| 36 | 25% | 63% | Median |
| 37 | 9% | 39% | |
| 38 | 11% | 30% | |
| 39 | 7% | 19% | |
| 40 | 9% | 12% | |
| 41 | 3% | 3% | |
| 42 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 43 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 44 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 31 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 32 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 33 | 3% | 98% | |
| 34 | 10% | 95% | |
| 35 | 23% | 84% | |
| 36 | 25% | 62% | Median |
| 37 | 9% | 37% | |
| 38 | 10% | 28% | |
| 39 | 6% | 18% | |
| 40 | 8% | 11% | |
| 41 | 3% | 3% | |
| 42 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 43 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% |
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 32 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 33 | 3% | 98% | |
| 34 | 10% | 95% | |
| 35 | 23% | 84% | |
| 36 | 25% | 62% | Median |
| 37 | 9% | 37% | |
| 38 | 10% | 28% | |
| 39 | 6% | 18% | |
| 40 | 8% | 11% | Last Result |
| 41 | 3% | 3% | |
| 42 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 43 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% |
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 25 | 3% | 99.2% | |
| 26 | 5% | 96% | |
| 27 | 12% | 91% | Median |
| 28 | 9% | 78% | |
| 29 | 19% | 70% | |
| 30 | 10% | 51% | |
| 31 | 21% | 41% | |
| 32 | 11% | 20% | |
| 33 | 5% | 9% | |
| 34 | 3% | 4% | |
| 35 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 36 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 37 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 23 | 1.1% | 99.9% | |
| 24 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 25 | 10% | 97% | |
| 26 | 12% | 87% | |
| 27 | 25% | 75% | Median |
| 28 | 15% | 49% | Last Result |
| 29 | 17% | 34% | |
| 30 | 6% | 17% | |
| 31 | 7% | 11% | |
| 32 | 3% | 4% | |
| 33 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 34 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% |
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 23 | 1.1% | 99.9% | |
| 24 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 25 | 10% | 97% | |
| 26 | 12% | 87% | |
| 27 | 25% | 75% | Median |
| 28 | 15% | 49% | |
| 29 | 17% | 34% | |
| 30 | 6% | 17% | |
| 31 | 7% | 11% | |
| 32 | 3% | 4% | |
| 33 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 34 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 23 | 1.2% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 24 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 25 | 11% | 97% | |
| 26 | 13% | 87% | |
| 27 | 26% | 74% | Median |
| 28 | 16% | 48% | |
| 29 | 17% | 32% | |
| 30 | 5% | 15% | |
| 31 | 6% | 10% | |
| 32 | 3% | 3% | |
| 33 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 34 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% |
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 23 | 1.2% | 99.9% | |
| 24 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 25 | 11% | 97% | |
| 26 | 13% | 87% | |
| 27 | 26% | 74% | Median |
| 28 | 16% | 48% | |
| 29 | 17% | 32% | |
| 30 | 5% | 15% | |
| 31 | 6% | 10% | |
| 32 | 3% | 3% | |
| 33 | 0.6% | 0.7% | Last Result |
| 34 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% |
Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 13 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 14 | 7% | 98% | |
| 15 | 23% | 90% | |
| 16 | 20% | 68% | Median |
| 17 | 24% | 47% | |
| 18 | 12% | 23% | |
| 19 | 6% | 11% | |
| 20 | 4% | 5% | |
| 21 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Mediana
- Commissioner(s): Delo
- Fieldwork period: 1–28 December 2020
Calculations
- Sample size: 712
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.50%