Opinion Poll by Mediana for Delo, 1–28 December 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 24.9% 27.9% 25.9–30.2% 25.3–30.8% 24.8–31.4% 23.8–32.4%
Socialni demokrati 9.9% 16.4% 14.8–18.3% 14.3–18.9% 13.9–19.3% 13.1–20.3%
Levica 9.3% 13.6% 12.1–15.4% 11.7–15.9% 11.3–16.4% 10.6–17.2%
Lista Marjana Šarca 12.6% 11.8% 10.4–13.5% 10.0–14.0% 9.6–14.4% 9.0–15.2%
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7.2% 9.0% 7.7–10.5% 7.4–10.9% 7.1–11.3% 6.5–12.1%
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5.1% 3.7% 2.9–4.7% 2.7–5.0% 2.5–5.3% 2.2–5.9%
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 4.9% 2.7% 2.0–3.6% 1.9–3.9% 1.7–4.1% 1.4–4.6%
Slovenska ljudska stranka 2.6% 2.4% 1.8–3.3% 1.6–3.6% 1.5–3.8% 1.2–4.3%
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4.2% 2.1% 1.6–3.0% 1.4–3.2% 1.3–3.5% 1.1–3.9%
Stranka modernega centra 9.7% 1.5% 1.1–2.3% 1.0–2.5% 0.9–2.7% 0.7–3.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 25 28 25–31 25–31 24–31 23–32
Socialni demokrati 10 16 15–18 14–19 13–20 13–20
Levica 9 13 11–15 11–16 10–16 10–17
Lista Marjana Šarca 13 11 10–13 10–13 9–14 9–15
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7 9 7–10 7–11 7–11 6–12
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5 0 0–4 0–4 0–5 0–6
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 5 0 0 0 0 0–4
Slovenska ljudska stranka 0 0 0 0 0 0–4
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4 0 0 0 0 0
Stranka modernega centra 10 0 0 0 0 0

Slovenska demokratska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.5% 99.9%  
24 3% 99.4%  
25 8% 97% Last Result
26 14% 89%  
27 14% 74%  
28 26% 61% Median
29 10% 35%  
30 14% 25%  
31 9% 11%  
32 2% 2%  
33 0.3% 0.5%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100% Last Result
11 0% 100%  
12 0.3% 100%  
13 2% 99.7%  
14 7% 97%  
15 23% 90%  
16 21% 67% Median
17 25% 46%  
18 11% 21%  
19 6% 9%  
20 3% 3%  
21 0.3% 0.3%  
22 0% 0%  

Levica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.2% 100% Last Result
10 3% 99.8%  
11 8% 97%  
12 27% 89%  
13 25% 62% Median
14 18% 37%  
15 11% 19%  
16 7% 8%  
17 0.6% 0.9%  
18 0.3% 0.3%  
19 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.3% 100%  
9 2% 99.6%  
10 31% 97%  
11 24% 66% Median
12 20% 42%  
13 18% 21% Last Result
14 2% 3%  
15 1.0% 1.4%  
16 0.4% 0.4%  
17 0% 0%  

Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 2% 100%  
7 14% 98% Last Result
8 30% 84%  
9 31% 54% Median
10 15% 23%  
11 6% 9%  
12 2% 2%  
13 0.3% 0.3%  
14 0% 0%  

Stranka Alenke Bratušek

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 54% 100% Median
1 0% 46%  
2 0% 46%  
3 2% 46%  
4 39% 44%  
5 4% 4% Last Result
6 0.6% 0.6%  
7 0% 0%  

Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Median
1 0% 2%  
2 0% 2%  
3 0.6% 2%  
4 2% 2%  
5 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
6 0% 0%  

Slovenska ljudska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska ljudska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 2%  
2 0% 2%  
3 0.1% 2%  
4 2% 2%  
5 0% 0%  

Slovenska nacionalna stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.6% 100% Median
1 0% 0.4%  
2 0% 0.4%  
3 0% 0.4%  
4 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
5 0% 0%  

Stranka modernega centra

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka modernega centra page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 43 39 0.1% 37–42 36–43 36–44 35–45
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca 38 39 0.1% 37–42 36–43 36–44 34–45
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 50 39 0% 36–41 34–42 34–43 32–44
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 35 36 0% 34–40 34–40 33–41 31–42
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 45 36 0% 34–40 34–40 33–41 31–42
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 30 36 0% 34–40 33–40 33–41 31–41
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 40 36 0% 34–40 33–40 33–41 31–41
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 43 30 0% 27–32 26–33 25–34 24–35
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 28 27 0% 25–31 25–31 24–32 23–33
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 38 27 0% 25–31 25–31 24–32 23–33
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca 23 27 0% 25–30 25–31 24–32 23–33
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra 33 27 0% 25–30 25–31 24–32 23–33
Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 25 16 0% 15–19 14–20 14–20 13–21

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.2% 100%  
34 0.3% 99.8%  
35 2% 99.5%  
36 5% 98%  
37 13% 93%  
38 20% 80%  
39 11% 60% Median
40 21% 49%  
41 11% 28%  
42 9% 17%  
43 4% 7% Last Result
44 2% 3%  
45 0.6% 0.7%  
46 0.1% 0.1% Majority
47 0% 0%  

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.2% 100%  
34 0.3% 99.8%  
35 2% 99.5%  
36 5% 98%  
37 13% 92%  
38 21% 79% Last Result
39 11% 58% Median
40 21% 47%  
41 10% 26%  
42 9% 16%  
43 4% 7%  
44 2% 3%  
45 0.5% 0.6%  
46 0% 0.1% Majority
47 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.2% 100%  
32 0.4% 99.8%  
33 0.6% 99.4%  
34 5% 98.8%  
35 3% 94%  
36 15% 91% Median
37 8% 75%  
38 15% 67%  
39 23% 52%  
40 17% 30%  
41 6% 13%  
42 4% 7%  
43 2% 3%  
44 0.7% 0.9%  
45 0.1% 0.2%  
46 0% 0% Majority
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0% Last Result

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.4% 99.9%  
32 2% 99.5%  
33 3% 98%  
34 10% 95%  
35 21% 85% Last Result
36 25% 63% Median
37 9% 39%  
38 11% 30%  
39 7% 19%  
40 9% 12%  
41 3% 3%  
42 0.3% 0.5%  
43 0.1% 0.2%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.4% 99.9%  
32 2% 99.5%  
33 3% 98%  
34 10% 95%  
35 21% 85%  
36 25% 63% Median
37 9% 39%  
38 11% 30%  
39 7% 19%  
40 9% 12%  
41 3% 3%  
42 0.3% 0.5%  
43 0.1% 0.2%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0% Last Result

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100% Last Result
31 0.5% 99.9%  
32 2% 99.4%  
33 3% 98%  
34 10% 95%  
35 23% 84%  
36 25% 62% Median
37 9% 37%  
38 10% 28%  
39 6% 18%  
40 8% 11%  
41 3% 3%  
42 0.3% 0.4%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.5% 99.9%  
32 2% 99.4%  
33 3% 98%  
34 10% 95%  
35 23% 84%  
36 25% 62% Median
37 9% 37%  
38 10% 28%  
39 6% 18%  
40 8% 11% Last Result
41 3% 3%  
42 0.3% 0.4%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.2% 100%  
24 0.6% 99.8%  
25 3% 99.2%  
26 5% 96%  
27 12% 91% Median
28 9% 78%  
29 19% 70%  
30 10% 51%  
31 21% 41%  
32 11% 20%  
33 5% 9%  
34 3% 4%  
35 1.4% 2%  
36 0.3% 0.3%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0% Last Result

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 1.1% 99.9%  
24 2% 98.8%  
25 10% 97%  
26 12% 87%  
27 25% 75% Median
28 15% 49% Last Result
29 17% 34%  
30 6% 17%  
31 7% 11%  
32 3% 4%  
33 0.8% 0.9%  
34 0.1% 0.2%  
35 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 1.1% 99.9%  
24 2% 98.8%  
25 10% 97%  
26 12% 87%  
27 25% 75% Median
28 15% 49%  
29 17% 34%  
30 6% 17%  
31 7% 11%  
32 3% 4%  
33 0.8% 0.9%  
34 0.1% 0.2%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 1.2% 99.9% Last Result
24 2% 98.7%  
25 11% 97%  
26 13% 87%  
27 26% 74% Median
28 16% 48%  
29 17% 32%  
30 5% 15%  
31 6% 10%  
32 3% 3%  
33 0.6% 0.7%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 1.2% 99.9%  
24 2% 98.7%  
25 11% 97%  
26 13% 87%  
27 26% 74% Median
28 16% 48%  
29 17% 32%  
30 5% 15%  
31 6% 10%  
32 3% 3%  
33 0.6% 0.7% Last Result
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.3% 100%  
13 2% 99.7%  
14 7% 98%  
15 23% 90%  
16 20% 68% Median
17 24% 47%  
18 12% 23%  
19 6% 11%  
20 4% 5%  
21 0.6% 0.8%  
22 0.1% 0.2%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations