Opinion Poll by CRJM for Delo, 1–30 December 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 24.9% 22.4% 20.7–24.2% 20.2–24.7% 19.8–25.1% 19.0–26.0%
Lista Marjana Šarca 12.6% 20.5% 18.9–22.2% 18.4–22.7% 18.0–23.2% 17.3–24.0%
Socialni demokrati 9.9% 17.3% 15.8–19.0% 15.4–19.4% 15.0–19.9% 14.4–20.7%
Levica 9.3% 13.2% 11.9–14.7% 11.5–15.1% 11.2–15.5% 10.6–16.3%
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 4.9% 7.6% 6.6–8.8% 6.3–9.1% 6.0–9.4% 5.6–10.0%
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7.2% 6.2% 5.3–7.3% 5.0–7.6% 4.8–7.9% 4.4–8.5%
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4.2% 3.5% 2.8–4.4% 2.6–4.6% 2.5–4.8% 2.2–5.3%
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5.1% 1.9% 1.4–2.6% 1.3–2.8% 1.2–3.0% 1.0–3.4%
Stranka modernega centra 9.7% 1.5% 1.1–2.1% 1.0–2.3% 0.9–2.5% 0.7–2.8%
Slovenska ljudska stranka 2.6% 1.5% 1.1–2.1% 1.0–2.3% 0.9–2.5% 0.7–2.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 25 22 20–23 19–24 19–25 18–26
Lista Marjana Šarca 13 19 18–21 18–22 17–22 17–23
Socialni demokrati 10 17 15–19 15–19 15–19 14–20
Levica 9 13 11–14 11–15 11–15 10–15
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 5 7 6–8 6–9 6–9 5–9
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7 6 5–7 5–7 4–7 4–8
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4 0 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–4
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5 0 0 0 0 0
Stranka modernega centra 10 0 0 0 0 0
Slovenska ljudska stranka 0 0 0 0 0 0

Slovenska demokratska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0.8% 99.9%  
19 6% 99.2%  
20 10% 94%  
21 26% 84%  
22 32% 58% Median
23 17% 26%  
24 6% 9%  
25 2% 3% Last Result
26 0.7% 0.8%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0% 100% Last Result
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0.3% 100%  
17 4% 99.6%  
18 15% 96%  
19 34% 81% Median
20 27% 46%  
21 11% 19%  
22 7% 8%  
23 1.2% 1.4%  
24 0.2% 0.3%  
25 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100% Last Result
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0.2% 100%  
14 2% 99.8%  
15 12% 98%  
16 24% 86%  
17 26% 62% Median
18 24% 36%  
19 11% 12%  
20 1.3% 2%  
21 0.2% 0.2%  
22 0% 0%  

Levica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.2% 100% Last Result
10 2% 99.8%  
11 22% 98%  
12 16% 76%  
13 43% 60% Median
14 13% 18%  
15 5% 5%  
16 0.3% 0.4%  
17 0% 0%  

Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 2% 100% Last Result
6 23% 98%  
7 31% 75% Median
8 36% 43%  
9 6% 7%  
10 0.4% 0.4%  
11 0% 0%  

Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 5% 99.9%  
5 23% 95%  
6 49% 73% Median
7 22% 24% Last Result
8 1.4% 1.5%  
9 0% 0%  

Slovenska nacionalna stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 84% 100% Median
1 0% 16%  
2 0% 16%  
3 4% 16%  
4 11% 11% Last Result
5 0.4% 0.5%  
6 0% 0%  

Stranka Alenke Bratušek

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0% Last Result

Stranka modernega centra

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka modernega centra page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Slovenska ljudska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska ljudska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 35 50 98% 47–52 46–53 46–54 44–55
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra 50 50 98% 47–52 46–53 46–54 44–55
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 45 50 98% 47–52 46–53 46–54 44–55
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 43 48 94% 46–51 45–52 45–53 44–53
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 28 44 14% 42–47 41–47 40–48 39–49
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra 43 44 14% 42–47 41–47 40–48 39–49
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 38 44 14% 42–47 41–47 40–48 39–49
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 30 42 5% 40–45 40–46 39–46 38–47
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 40 42 5% 40–45 40–46 39–46 38–47
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca 38 41 2% 39–44 38–44 38–45 37–47
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati 23 36 0% 34–39 34–40 33–40 32–41
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 33 36 0% 34–39 34–40 33–40 32–41
Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 25 24 0% 22–26 22–27 21–27 20–28

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100% Last Result
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.4% 99.8%  
45 1.3% 99.4%  
46 4% 98% Majority
47 5% 94%  
48 15% 89%  
49 21% 74% Median
50 27% 53%  
51 11% 26%  
52 6% 15%  
53 5% 9%  
54 4% 4%  
55 0.4% 0.6%  
56 0.1% 0.2%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.4% 99.8%  
45 1.3% 99.4%  
46 4% 98% Majority
47 5% 94%  
48 15% 89%  
49 21% 74% Median
50 27% 53% Last Result
51 11% 26%  
52 6% 15%  
53 5% 9%  
54 4% 4%  
55 0.4% 0.6%  
56 0.1% 0.2%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.4% 99.8%  
45 1.3% 99.4% Last Result
46 4% 98% Majority
47 5% 94%  
48 15% 89%  
49 21% 74% Median
50 27% 53%  
51 11% 26%  
52 6% 15%  
53 5% 9%  
54 4% 4%  
55 0.4% 0.6%  
56 0.1% 0.2%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.3% 100% Last Result
44 1.4% 99.6%  
45 4% 98%  
46 10% 94% Majority
47 11% 83%  
48 25% 72% Median
49 20% 47%  
50 11% 27%  
51 8% 16%  
52 4% 7%  
53 3% 3%  
54 0.2% 0.3%  
55 0.1% 0.2%  
56 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0.3% 100%  
39 0.5% 99.6%  
40 3% 99.2%  
41 6% 96%  
42 20% 90%  
43 18% 70% Median
44 20% 52%  
45 18% 32%  
46 3% 14% Majority
47 7% 11%  
48 3% 4%  
49 0.7% 0.9%  
50 0.1% 0.2%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.3% 100%  
39 0.5% 99.6%  
40 3% 99.2%  
41 6% 96%  
42 20% 90%  
43 18% 70% Last Result, Median
44 20% 52%  
45 18% 32%  
46 3% 14% Majority
47 7% 11%  
48 3% 4%  
49 0.7% 0.9%  
50 0.1% 0.2%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.3% 100% Last Result
39 0.5% 99.6%  
40 3% 99.2%  
41 6% 96%  
42 20% 90%  
43 18% 70% Median
44 20% 52%  
45 18% 32%  
46 3% 14% Majority
47 7% 11%  
48 3% 4%  
49 0.7% 0.9%  
50 0.1% 0.2%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100% Last Result
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.2% 99.9%  
38 2% 99.7%  
39 2% 98%  
40 8% 96%  
41 17% 87%  
42 27% 70% Median
43 18% 44%  
44 13% 26%  
45 7% 12%  
46 4% 5% Majority
47 1.0% 1.3%  
48 0.1% 0.3%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.2% 99.9%  
38 2% 99.7%  
39 2% 98%  
40 8% 96% Last Result
41 17% 87%  
42 27% 70% Median
43 18% 44%  
44 13% 26%  
45 7% 12%  
46 4% 5% Majority
47 1.0% 1.3%  
48 0.1% 0.3%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.2% 100%  
37 2% 99.8%  
38 5% 98% Last Result
39 6% 93%  
40 25% 87%  
41 18% 62% Median
42 20% 44%  
43 13% 24%  
44 7% 11%  
45 3% 4%  
46 0.8% 2% Majority
47 0.6% 0.7%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.8% 99.8%  
33 2% 99.1%  
34 8% 97%  
35 17% 89%  
36 31% 72% Median
37 11% 41%  
38 16% 30%  
39 8% 14%  
40 5% 6%  
41 0.5% 0.8%  
42 0.1% 0.2%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.8% 99.8%  
33 2% 99.1% Last Result
34 8% 97%  
35 17% 89%  
36 31% 72% Median
37 11% 41%  
38 16% 30%  
39 8% 14%  
40 5% 6%  
41 0.5% 0.8%  
42 0.1% 0.2%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.2% 100%  
20 0.6% 99.8%  
21 2% 99.3%  
22 11% 97%  
23 21% 86%  
24 20% 65% Median
25 25% 45% Last Result
26 13% 20%  
27 6% 7%  
28 0.5% 0.6%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations