Opinion Poll by Mediana for Delo, 4–7 January 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 24.9% 22.9% 20.9–25.0% 20.4–25.6% 19.9–26.1% 19.0–27.2%
Levica 9.3% 16.1% 14.4–18.0% 13.9–18.5% 13.5–19.0% 12.8–19.9%
Socialni demokrati 9.9% 14.2% 12.6–16.0% 12.2–16.5% 11.8–17.0% 11.1–17.9%
Lista Marjana Šarca 12.6% 12.5% 11.0–14.2% 10.6–14.7% 10.3–15.1% 9.6–16.0%
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7.2% 8.0% 6.8–9.4% 6.4–9.8% 6.2–10.2% 5.7–10.9%
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5.1% 5.3% 4.3–6.5% 4.1–6.9% 3.8–7.2% 3.4–7.8%
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 4.9% 3.6% 2.8–4.6% 2.6–4.9% 2.4–5.2% 2.1–5.8%
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4.2% 3.3% 2.5–4.3% 2.3–4.6% 2.2–4.9% 1.9–5.4%
Slovenska ljudska stranka 2.6% 2.6% 1.9–3.5% 1.8–3.8% 1.6–4.0% 1.4–4.5%
Stranka modernega centra 9.7% 1.8% 1.3–2.7% 1.2–2.9% 1.1–3.1% 0.9–3.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 25 22 20–25 20–25 19–26 19–27
Levica 9 15 13–18 13–18 13–18 12–19
Socialni demokrati 10 14 12–16 12–16 11–16 11–18
Lista Marjana Šarca 13 12 10–14 10–14 10–15 9–16
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7 8 6–9 6–9 6–10 5–10
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5 5 4–6 4–7 0–7 0–7
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 5 0 0–4 0–4 0–5 0–5
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4 0 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–5
Slovenska ljudska stranka 0 0 0 0 0 0–4
Stranka modernega centra 10 0 0 0 0 0

Slovenska demokratska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0.4% 99.9%  
19 2% 99.5%  
20 10% 97%  
21 22% 87%  
22 21% 66% Median
23 14% 45%  
24 16% 31%  
25 12% 15% Last Result
26 2% 3%  
27 0.9% 1.1%  
28 0.2% 0.2%  
29 0% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Levica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 0% 100%  
11 0.2% 100%  
12 1.1% 99.8%  
13 11% 98.8%  
14 24% 87%  
15 15% 63% Median
16 24% 48%  
17 11% 24%  
18 12% 13%  
19 0.6% 1.0%  
20 0.3% 0.4%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.4% 100% Last Result
11 4% 99.6%  
12 16% 96%  
13 23% 79%  
14 30% 56% Median
15 13% 26%  
16 11% 13%  
17 1.3% 2%  
18 1.0% 1.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100%  
9 1.4% 99.9%  
10 10% 98%  
11 17% 89%  
12 35% 72% Median
13 25% 37% Last Result
14 8% 12%  
15 3% 4%  
16 0.9% 1.0%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 1.0% 99.9%  
6 24% 99.0%  
7 20% 75% Last Result
8 40% 56% Median
9 11% 16%  
10 4% 5%  
11 0.3% 0.4%  
12 0% 0%  

Stranka Alenke Bratušek

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100%  
1 0% 96%  
2 0% 96%  
3 0.2% 96%  
4 41% 96%  
5 30% 54% Last Result, Median
6 17% 25%  
7 8% 8%  
8 0.3% 0.3%  
9 0% 0%  

Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 62% 100% Median
1 0% 38%  
2 0% 38%  
3 2% 38%  
4 30% 35%  
5 5% 5% Last Result
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Slovenska nacionalna stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 80% 100% Median
1 0% 20%  
2 0% 20%  
3 4% 20%  
4 14% 16% Last Result
5 2% 2%  
6 0% 0%  

Slovenska ljudska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska ljudska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 2%  
2 0% 2%  
3 0.3% 2%  
4 1.2% 1.2%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Stranka modernega centra

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka modernega centra page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 50 39 0.2% 37–43 36–43 35–44 34–45
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 43 36 0% 33–39 32–40 32–41 31–42
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 35 35 0% 32–38 31–38 31–39 29–41
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 45 35 0% 32–38 31–38 31–39 29–41
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca 38 34 0% 32–37 31–38 31–38 29–40
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 30 33 0% 31–36 30–37 30–38 29–39
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 40 33 0% 31–36 30–37 30–38 29–39
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 43 32 0% 29–35 28–36 27–36 26–38
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 28 27 0% 25–30 24–31 23–32 22–33
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 38 27 0% 25–30 24–31 23–32 22–33
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca 23 26 0% 23–28 23–29 23–30 21–31
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra 33 26 0% 23–28 23–29 23–30 21–31
Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 25 15 0% 13–18 12–18 12–19 11–20

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0% 100%  
33 0.2% 99.9%  
34 0.8% 99.7%  
35 2% 98.9%  
36 4% 97%  
37 11% 93%  
38 11% 82%  
39 21% 70% Median
40 18% 49%  
41 7% 31%  
42 12% 23%  
43 8% 11%  
44 2% 4%  
45 1.5% 2%  
46 0.2% 0.2% Majority
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0% Last Result

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.3% 99.9%  
31 1.3% 99.6%  
32 4% 98%  
33 7% 94%  
34 14% 87% Median
35 14% 73%  
36 15% 59%  
37 16% 44%  
38 14% 28%  
39 6% 14%  
40 3% 8%  
41 4% 5%  
42 0.9% 1.2%  
43 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
44 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.5% 99.9%  
30 1.4% 99.4%  
31 5% 98%  
32 6% 93%  
33 14% 87%  
34 16% 73% Median
35 15% 56% Last Result
36 18% 42%  
37 11% 23%  
38 8% 12%  
39 2% 4%  
40 0.7% 2%  
41 0.9% 1.0%  
42 0% 0.1%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.5% 99.9%  
30 1.4% 99.4%  
31 5% 98%  
32 6% 93%  
33 14% 87%  
34 16% 73% Median
35 15% 56%  
36 18% 42%  
37 11% 23%  
38 8% 12%  
39 2% 4%  
40 0.8% 2%  
41 0.9% 1.0%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0% Last Result

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.2% 100%  
29 0.3% 99.8%  
30 2% 99.5%  
31 4% 98%  
32 9% 94%  
33 15% 85%  
34 22% 70% Median
35 15% 47%  
36 13% 32%  
37 10% 19%  
38 8% 10% Last Result
39 1.0% 2%  
40 0.4% 0.8%  
41 0.3% 0.4%  
42 0% 0.1%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0% 100%  
28 0.3% 99.9%  
29 2% 99.6%  
30 5% 98% Last Result
31 11% 93%  
32 17% 82%  
33 18% 65%  
34 20% 47% Median
35 11% 27%  
36 9% 16%  
37 4% 6%  
38 2% 3%  
39 0.4% 0.7%  
40 0.1% 0.4%  
41 0.3% 0.3%  
42 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0% 100%  
28 0.3% 99.9%  
29 2% 99.6%  
30 5% 98%  
31 11% 93%  
32 17% 82%  
33 18% 65%  
34 20% 47% Median
35 11% 27%  
36 9% 16%  
37 4% 6%  
38 2% 3%  
39 0.4% 0.8%  
40 0.1% 0.4% Last Result
41 0.3% 0.3%  
42 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.3% 99.9%  
26 0.4% 99.6%  
27 2% 99.2%  
28 3% 97%  
29 6% 94%  
30 10% 88%  
31 20% 78% Median
32 14% 59%  
33 17% 44%  
34 12% 27%  
35 9% 15%  
36 4% 6%  
37 1.1% 2%  
38 1.0% 1.2%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0% Last Result

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.4% 99.9%  
23 3% 99.4%  
24 4% 96%  
25 15% 92%  
26 11% 77% Median
27 20% 66%  
28 15% 46% Last Result
29 12% 31%  
30 12% 19%  
31 4% 7%  
32 2% 3%  
33 0.4% 0.7%  
34 0.2% 0.3%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.4% 99.9%  
23 3% 99.4%  
24 4% 96%  
25 14% 92%  
26 11% 77% Median
27 20% 66%  
28 15% 47%  
29 12% 31%  
30 12% 19%  
31 4% 7%  
32 2% 3%  
33 0.5% 0.8%  
34 0.2% 0.3%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.4% 99.9%  
22 1.3% 99.5%  
23 8% 98% Last Result
24 12% 90%  
25 21% 78%  
26 22% 57% Median
27 16% 35%  
28 12% 19%  
29 3% 6%  
30 2% 3%  
31 1.4% 1.4%  
32 0% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.4% 99.9%  
22 1.3% 99.5%  
23 8% 98%  
24 12% 90%  
25 21% 78%  
26 22% 57% Median
27 16% 35%  
28 12% 19%  
29 3% 6%  
30 2% 3%  
31 1.4% 1.4%  
32 0% 0.1%  
33 0% 0% Last Result

Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.2% 100%  
11 2% 99.8%  
12 6% 98%  
13 15% 92%  
14 18% 77% Median
15 13% 59%  
16 18% 46%  
17 10% 29%  
18 13% 18%  
19 3% 5%  
20 1.4% 2%  
21 0.1% 0.3%  
22 0.2% 0.2%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations