Opinion Poll by Ninamedia for Dnevnik, 12–14 January 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 24.9% 29.1% 27.0–31.4% 26.4–32.1% 25.9–32.6% 24.9–33.7%
Socialni demokrati 9.9% 18.4% 16.7–20.4% 16.2–21.0% 15.7–21.5% 14.9–22.5%
Lista Marjana Šarca 12.6% 15.9% 14.2–17.8% 13.7–18.3% 13.3–18.8% 12.6–19.7%
Levica 9.3% 14.7% 13.1–16.6% 12.7–17.1% 12.3–17.5% 11.6–18.5%
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7.2% 7.1% 6.0–8.6% 5.7–8.9% 5.5–9.3% 5.0–10.0%
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 4.9% 4.7% 3.8–5.9% 3.6–6.2% 3.4–6.6% 3.0–7.2%
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5.1% 4.4% 3.6–5.6% 3.3–5.9% 3.1–6.2% 2.8–6.8%
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4.2% 1.9% 1.3–2.7% 1.2–2.9% 1.1–3.2% 0.9–3.6%
Slovenska ljudska stranka 2.6% 1.6% 1.1–2.4% 1.0–2.6% 0.9–2.8% 0.7–3.2%
Stranka modernega centra 9.7% 1.0% 0.7–1.7% 0.6–1.9% 0.5–2.1% 0.4–2.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 25 28 26–30 25–31 25–32 24–33
Socialni demokrati 10 18 16–19 15–20 15–21 14–22
Lista Marjana Šarca 13 15 13–17 13–18 12–18 12–19
Levica 9 14 12–16 12–16 12–17 11–18
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7 6 5–8 5–8 5–9 4–9
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 5 4 0–5 0–6 0–6 0–7
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5 4 0–4 0–5 0–5 0–6
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4 0 0 0 0 0
Slovenska ljudska stranka 0 0 0 0 0 0
Stranka modernega centra 10 0 0 0 0 0

Slovenska demokratska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.4% 100%  
24 2% 99.6%  
25 6% 98% Last Result
26 19% 91%  
27 12% 72%  
28 22% 59% Median
29 22% 37%  
30 8% 15%  
31 3% 8%  
32 3% 4%  
33 0.7% 1.0%  
34 0.2% 0.3%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100% Last Result
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0.1% 100%  
14 1.3% 99.9%  
15 6% 98.6%  
16 19% 92%  
17 16% 73%  
18 32% 57% Median
19 19% 25%  
20 3% 6%  
21 3% 3%  
22 0.6% 0.7%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.4% 100%  
12 4% 99.6%  
13 11% 96% Last Result
14 26% 85%  
15 24% 59% Median
16 15% 35%  
17 11% 20%  
18 8% 9%  
19 1.0% 1.1%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Levica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 0.3% 100%  
11 2% 99.7%  
12 13% 98%  
13 28% 85%  
14 27% 57% Median
15 14% 30%  
16 12% 15%  
17 2% 4%  
18 2% 2%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.5% 100%  
5 11% 99.5%  
6 40% 89% Median
7 18% 49% Last Result
8 26% 30%  
9 4% 4%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 12% 100%  
1 0% 88%  
2 0% 88%  
3 2% 88%  
4 49% 87% Median
5 31% 37% Last Result
6 5% 6%  
7 0.7% 0.8%  
8 0% 0%  

Stranka Alenke Bratušek

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 27% 100%  
1 0% 73%  
2 0% 73%  
3 5% 73%  
4 57% 67% Median
5 8% 10% Last Result
6 1.4% 2%  
7 0.2% 0.2%  
8 0% 0%  

Slovenska nacionalna stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

Slovenska ljudska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska ljudska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Stranka modernega centra

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka modernega centra page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 43 47 74% 44–50 44–50 43–51 42–52
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra 50 47 68% 43–49 42–50 41–50 40–51
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca 38 43 9% 41–45 40–47 39–48 38–49
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 35 43 15% 40–46 40–47 39–47 36–48
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 45 43 15% 40–46 40–47 39–47 36–48
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra 43 40 0.1% 36–43 35–43 35–44 33–44
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 30 39 0.4% 37–42 36–43 35–44 35–45
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 40 39 0.4% 37–42 36–43 35–44 35–45
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 28 37 0% 34–40 33–40 32–41 31–42
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 38 37 0% 34–40 33–40 32–41 31–42
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca 23 33 0% 30–36 29–36 28–37 28–38
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra 33 33 0% 30–36 29–36 28–37 28–38
Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 25 22 0% 19–24 18–24 17–25 16–26

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.1% 99.9%  
41 0.3% 99.8%  
42 0.9% 99.5%  
43 3% 98.6% Last Result
44 6% 96%  
45 15% 89%  
46 11% 74% Majority
47 30% 63% Median
48 14% 32%  
49 9% 19%  
50 7% 10%  
51 2% 3%  
52 1.0% 1.3%  
53 0.2% 0.3%  
54 0% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.2% 100%  
40 0.9% 99.8%  
41 3% 98.9%  
42 4% 96%  
43 6% 92%  
44 7% 86%  
45 12% 79%  
46 15% 68% Majority
47 26% 53% Median
48 9% 27%  
49 12% 17%  
50 4% 5% Last Result
51 0.6% 0.9%  
52 0.3% 0.3%  
53 0% 0%  

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.5% 99.8% Last Result
39 3% 99.3%  
40 5% 97%  
41 15% 92%  
42 25% 76%  
43 18% 51% Median
44 11% 34%  
45 13% 22%  
46 4% 9% Majority
47 2% 5%  
48 2% 3%  
49 0.5% 0.9%  
50 0.3% 0.4%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100% Last Result
36 0.6% 99.9%  
37 0.1% 99.4%  
38 1.4% 99.3%  
39 3% 98%  
40 6% 95%  
41 6% 89%  
42 16% 83%  
43 24% 67% Median
44 11% 42%  
45 16% 31%  
46 10% 15% Majority
47 4% 5%  
48 0.6% 0.9%  
49 0.3% 0.3%  
50 0% 0.1%  
51 0% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100%  
36 0.6% 99.9%  
37 0.1% 99.4%  
38 1.4% 99.3%  
39 3% 98%  
40 6% 95%  
41 6% 89%  
42 16% 83%  
43 24% 67% Median
44 11% 42%  
45 16% 31% Last Result
46 10% 15% Majority
47 4% 5%  
48 0.6% 0.9%  
49 0.3% 0.3%  
50 0% 0.1%  
51 0% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.2% 100%  
32 0% 99.8%  
33 0.9% 99.8%  
34 0.5% 98.9%  
35 6% 98%  
36 5% 92%  
37 12% 87%  
38 13% 76%  
39 7% 63%  
40 11% 56%  
41 24% 45% Median
42 11% 21%  
43 6% 10% Last Result
44 4% 4%  
45 0.2% 0.3%  
46 0.1% 0.1% Majority
47 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100% Last Result
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0.4% 99.9%  
35 3% 99.5%  
36 5% 97%  
37 6% 91%  
38 28% 85%  
39 14% 58% Median
40 12% 44%  
41 18% 32%  
42 8% 14%  
43 3% 6%  
44 1.0% 3%  
45 1.4% 2%  
46 0.4% 0.4% Majority
47 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100%  
34 0.4% 99.9%  
35 3% 99.5%  
36 5% 97%  
37 6% 91%  
38 28% 85%  
39 14% 58% Median
40 12% 44% Last Result
41 18% 32%  
42 8% 14%  
43 3% 6%  
44 1.0% 3%  
45 1.4% 2%  
46 0.4% 0.4% Majority
47 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0% 100%  
30 0.1% 99.9%  
31 1.2% 99.8%  
32 3% 98.6%  
33 4% 95%  
34 12% 91%  
35 10% 80%  
36 11% 70%  
37 31% 59% Median
38 10% 27%  
39 7% 17%  
40 7% 11%  
41 3% 4%  
42 1.2% 1.4%  
43 0.2% 0.2%  
44 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0% 100%  
30 0.1% 99.9%  
31 1.2% 99.8%  
32 3% 98.6%  
33 4% 95%  
34 12% 91%  
35 10% 80%  
36 11% 70%  
37 31% 59% Median
38 10% 27% Last Result
39 7% 17%  
40 7% 11%  
41 3% 4%  
42 1.2% 1.4%  
43 0.2% 0.2%  
44 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0.4% 100%  
28 2% 99.6%  
29 3% 97%  
30 10% 94%  
31 12% 84%  
32 19% 72%  
33 26% 53% Median
34 9% 26%  
35 6% 17%  
36 7% 11%  
37 1.3% 4%  
38 2% 2%  
39 0.1% 0.2%  
40 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.4% 100%  
28 2% 99.6%  
29 3% 97%  
30 10% 94%  
31 12% 84%  
32 19% 72%  
33 26% 53% Last Result, Median
34 9% 26%  
35 6% 17%  
36 7% 11%  
37 1.3% 4%  
38 2% 2%  
39 0.1% 0.2%  
40 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.2% 100%  
16 2% 99.8%  
17 1.3% 98%  
18 3% 97%  
19 8% 94%  
20 16% 86%  
21 16% 70%  
22 18% 54% Median
23 25% 36%  
24 7% 11%  
25 3% 4% Last Result
26 1.0% 1.2%  
27 0.2% 0.2%  
28 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations