Opinion Poll by Mediana for Delo, 8–25 January 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 24.9% 26.1% 24.0–28.3% 23.5–28.9% 23.0–29.4% 22.0–30.5%
Socialni demokrati 9.9% 13.9% 12.4–15.7% 11.9–16.2% 11.6–16.7% 10.9–17.6%
Lista Marjana Šarca 12.6% 13.7% 12.1–15.4% 11.7–15.9% 11.3–16.4% 10.6–17.3%
Levica 9.3% 10.7% 9.3–12.3% 9.0–12.8% 8.6–13.2% 8.0–14.0%
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7.2% 7.7% 6.6–9.2% 6.3–9.6% 6.0–10.0% 5.5–10.7%
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5.1% 6.3% 5.3–7.7% 5.0–8.0% 4.8–8.4% 4.3–9.1%
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 4.9% 3.9% 3.2–5.1% 2.9–5.4% 2.7–5.7% 2.4–6.2%
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4.2% 3.7% 2.9–4.7% 2.7–5.0% 2.5–5.3% 2.2–5.9%
Slovenska ljudska stranka 2.6% 3.0% 2.3–3.9% 2.1–4.2% 1.9–4.5% 1.7–5.0%
Stranka modernega centra 9.7% 2.3% 1.7–3.2% 1.5–3.4% 1.4–3.6% 1.2–4.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 25 26 23–27 23–29 22–29 21–31
Socialni demokrati 10 13 12–15 11–15 11–16 10–17
Lista Marjana Šarca 13 13 12–15 11–15 11–16 10–17
Levica 9 10 9–12 8–12 8–13 7–14
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7 7 6–8 6–9 5–10 5–10
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5 6 5–7 5–7 4–8 4–9
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 5 4 0–5 0–5 0–5 0–5
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4 0 0–4 0–4 0–5 0–5
Slovenska ljudska stranka 0 0 0 0–4 0–4 0–4
Stranka modernega centra 10 0 0 0 0 0–4

Slovenska demokratska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.2% 100%  
21 0.8% 99.8%  
22 3% 99.1%  
23 7% 96%  
24 12% 89%  
25 15% 77% Last Result
26 18% 62% Median
27 35% 44%  
28 3% 9%  
29 4% 6%  
30 1.2% 2%  
31 0.9% 1.0%  
32 0% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 1.2% 100% Last Result
11 5% 98.8%  
12 18% 94%  
13 34% 76% Median
14 29% 42%  
15 9% 13%  
16 2% 3%  
17 0.8% 1.0%  
18 0.1% 0.2%  
19 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 1.0% 99.9%  
11 7% 98.9%  
12 17% 92%  
13 26% 75% Last Result, Median
14 35% 50%  
15 10% 14%  
16 4% 5%  
17 0.8% 1.0%  
18 0.1% 0.2%  
19 0% 0%  

Levica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.5% 100%  
8 7% 99.5%  
9 12% 93% Last Result
10 39% 80% Median
11 30% 42%  
12 9% 12%  
13 2% 3%  
14 0.5% 0.6%  
15 0% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 4% 99.9%  
6 25% 96%  
7 41% 70% Last Result, Median
8 21% 30%  
9 6% 9%  
10 3% 3%  
11 0.2% 0.3%  
12 0% 0%  

Stranka Alenke Bratušek

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 4% 99.9%  
5 39% 96% Last Result
6 27% 58% Median
7 26% 31%  
8 4% 5%  
9 0.7% 0.8%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 44% 100%  
1 0% 56%  
2 0% 56%  
3 2% 56%  
4 42% 55% Median
5 12% 12% Last Result
6 0.4% 0.4%  
7 0% 0%  

Slovenska nacionalna stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 71% 100% Median
1 0% 29%  
2 0% 29%  
3 2% 29%  
4 24% 28% Last Result
5 4% 4%  
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0%  

Slovenska ljudska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska ljudska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 91% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 9%  
2 0% 9%  
3 1.0% 9%  
4 7% 8%  
5 0.3% 0.3%  
6 0% 0%  

Stranka modernega centra

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka modernega centra page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.4% 100% Median
1 0% 0.6%  
2 0% 0.6%  
3 0.1% 0.6%  
4 0.5% 0.5%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 50 42 6% 39–45 38–46 38–46 37–48
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 43 41 2% 38–45 38–45 37–45 35–47
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca 38 39 0.1% 36–41 35–43 34–44 34–45
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 35 36 0% 33–39 32–40 32–40 31–41
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 45 36 0% 33–39 32–40 32–40 31–42
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 43 35 0% 32–38 31–38 30–39 29–40
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 30 34 0% 32–36 31–37 30–38 29–39
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 40 34 0% 32–36 31–37 30–38 29–40
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 28 29 0% 26–32 25–33 24–33 23–34
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 38 29 0% 26–32 25–33 24–33 23–34
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca 23 27 0% 24–29 24–29 23–30 22–31
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra 33 27 0% 24–29 24–29 23–30 22–31
Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 25 16 0% 13–18 12–19 12–19 10–21

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100%  
35 0.1% 99.9%  
36 0.3% 99.9%  
37 1.4% 99.6%  
38 5% 98%  
39 4% 93%  
40 10% 89%  
41 21% 79%  
42 16% 58%  
43 21% 43% Median
44 10% 22%  
45 5% 11%  
46 4% 6% Majority
47 1.2% 2%  
48 0.5% 0.6%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0% Last Result

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100%  
34 0.2% 99.9%  
35 0.4% 99.7%  
36 0.9% 99.3%  
37 2% 98%  
38 9% 96%  
39 9% 87%  
40 7% 78%  
41 25% 71%  
42 11% 46%  
43 10% 35% Last Result, Median
44 7% 25%  
45 17% 19%  
46 1.5% 2% Majority
47 0.5% 0.5%  
48 0% 0.1%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.3% 99.9%  
34 3% 99.6%  
35 3% 96%  
36 4% 93%  
37 13% 89%  
38 14% 77% Last Result
39 15% 63% Median
40 12% 48%  
41 27% 36%  
42 3% 9%  
43 3% 6%  
44 2% 3%  
45 0.5% 0.6%  
46 0.1% 0.1% Majority
47 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.2% 99.9%  
31 1.5% 99.6%  
32 6% 98%  
33 5% 92%  
34 19% 87%  
35 7% 68% Last Result
36 17% 61%  
37 9% 44% Median
38 21% 35%  
39 9% 14%  
40 4% 5%  
41 1.2% 2%  
42 0.4% 0.5%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.2% 99.9%  
31 1.4% 99.6%  
32 6% 98%  
33 5% 92%  
34 19% 87%  
35 7% 69%  
36 17% 61%  
37 9% 44% Median
38 21% 36%  
39 9% 15%  
40 4% 6%  
41 1.3% 2%  
42 0.4% 0.5%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0% Last Result

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0% 100%  
28 0.2% 99.9%  
29 1.0% 99.8%  
30 1.5% 98.8%  
31 3% 97%  
32 4% 94%  
33 14% 90%  
34 25% 76%  
35 11% 51%  
36 12% 40% Median
37 16% 28%  
38 8% 12%  
39 3% 4%  
40 0.8% 1.0%  
41 0.2% 0.2%  
42 0% 0.1%  
43 0% 0% Last Result

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.2% 100%  
29 0.7% 99.8%  
30 3% 99.1% Last Result
31 5% 96%  
32 19% 91%  
33 13% 72% Median
34 32% 59%  
35 13% 28%  
36 9% 15%  
37 4% 6%  
38 2% 3%  
39 0.7% 1.2%  
40 0.3% 0.5%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.2% 100%  
29 0.7% 99.8%  
30 3% 99.1%  
31 5% 96%  
32 18% 91%  
33 13% 72% Median
34 32% 60%  
35 13% 28%  
36 9% 16%  
37 4% 7%  
38 2% 3%  
39 0.7% 1.2%  
40 0.4% 0.5% Last Result
41 0.1% 0.2%  
42 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.4% 99.9%  
24 3% 99.5%  
25 2% 96%  
26 9% 95%  
27 19% 85%  
28 13% 66% Last Result
29 12% 53%  
30 6% 40% Median
31 11% 34%  
32 17% 23%  
33 5% 6%  
34 0.7% 0.9%  
35 0.2% 0.2%  
36 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.4% 99.9%  
24 3% 99.5%  
25 2% 96%  
26 9% 95%  
27 19% 86%  
28 13% 66%  
29 12% 53%  
30 6% 41% Median
31 11% 35%  
32 17% 24%  
33 5% 6%  
34 0.9% 1.1%  
35 0.2% 0.2%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.7% 99.9%  
23 3% 99.3% Last Result
24 12% 96%  
25 11% 85%  
26 16% 74% Median
27 25% 58%  
28 21% 33%  
29 8% 12%  
30 3% 4%  
31 0.7% 1.1%  
32 0.2% 0.4%  
33 0.2% 0.2%  
34 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.6% 99.9%  
23 3% 99.3%  
24 11% 96%  
25 11% 85%  
26 16% 74% Median
27 25% 59%  
28 21% 33%  
29 8% 13%  
30 3% 4%  
31 0.8% 1.3%  
32 0.2% 0.4%  
33 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.5% 100%  
11 1.1% 99.5%  
12 5% 98%  
13 21% 93%  
14 10% 72%  
15 7% 62%  
16 13% 55%  
17 10% 42% Median
18 23% 32%  
19 7% 9%  
20 1.4% 2%  
21 0.4% 0.5%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations