Opinion Poll by Parsifal for Nova 24TV, 25–28 January 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 24.9% 36.6% 34.4–38.9% 33.7–39.6% 33.2–40.2% 32.1–41.3%
Socialni demokrati 9.9% 12.6% 11.1–14.3% 10.7–14.8% 10.4–15.2% 9.7–16.0%
Lista Marjana Šarca 12.6% 12.0% 10.6–13.7% 10.2–14.2% 9.9–14.6% 9.2–15.4%
Levica 9.3% 12.0% 10.6–13.7% 10.2–14.2% 9.9–14.6% 9.2–15.4%
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7.2% 5.6% 4.6–6.8% 4.4–7.2% 4.2–7.5% 3.7–8.2%
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 4.9% 5.6% 4.6–6.8% 4.4–7.2% 4.2–7.5% 3.7–8.2%
Slovenska ljudska stranka 2.6% 4.0% 3.2–5.1% 3.0–5.4% 2.8–5.6% 2.4–6.2%
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5.1% 2.9% 2.2–3.8% 2.0–4.1% 1.9–4.4% 1.6–4.9%
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4.2% 2.3% 1.8–3.2% 1.6–3.5% 1.4–3.7% 1.2–4.2%
Stranka modernega centra 9.7% 1.1% 0.7–1.8% 0.6–2.0% 0.5–2.1% 0.4–2.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 25 35 33–38 33–39 32–39 31–41
Socialni demokrati 10 13 10–13 10–14 10–14 9–15
Lista Marjana Šarca 13 12 10–13 10–14 9–14 9–15
Levica 9 12 10–13 10–13 9–14 8–15
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7 5 4–6 4–6 4–7 0–8
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 5 5 4–6 4–6 4–7 0–7
Slovenska ljudska stranka 0 0 0–5 0–5 0–5 0–6
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5 0 0 0 0–4 0–4
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4 0 0 0 0 0–3
Stranka modernega centra 10 0 0 0 0 0

Slovenska demokratska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0% 100% Last Result
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0.3% 100%  
31 1.1% 99.7%  
32 2% 98.6%  
33 8% 96%  
34 11% 88%  
35 31% 77% Median
36 12% 46%  
37 25% 35%  
38 5% 10%  
39 3% 5%  
40 0.8% 2%  
41 1.1% 1.3%  
42 0.1% 0.2%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0% 100%  
9 2% 99.9%  
10 14% 98% Last Result
11 14% 84%  
12 14% 70%  
13 50% 56% Median
14 5% 6%  
15 1.1% 1.3%  
16 0.2% 0.3%  
17 0% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.2% 100%  
9 3% 99.8%  
10 11% 97%  
11 32% 86%  
12 18% 54% Median
13 30% 37% Last Result
14 6% 7%  
15 1.2% 1.3%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Levica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.5% 100%  
9 4% 99.5% Last Result
10 8% 95%  
11 19% 87%  
12 49% 68% Median
13 16% 19%  
14 2% 3%  
15 0.7% 0.9%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 0% 98%  
2 0% 98%  
3 0.1% 98%  
4 14% 98%  
5 50% 84% Median
6 30% 34%  
7 4% 5% Last Result
8 0.7% 0.7%  
9 0% 0%  

Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 0% 98%  
2 0% 98%  
3 0.2% 98%  
4 18% 98%  
5 52% 80% Last Result, Median
6 23% 27%  
7 4% 4%  
8 0.3% 0.4%  
9 0% 0%  

Slovenska ljudska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska ljudska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 59% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 41%  
2 0% 41%  
3 2% 41%  
4 29% 39%  
5 10% 10%  
6 0.7% 0.7%  
7 0% 0%  

Stranka Alenke Bratušek

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 96% 100% Median
1 0% 4%  
2 0% 4%  
3 0.8% 4%  
4 3% 4%  
5 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
6 0% 0%  

Slovenska nacionalna stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.5% 100% Median
1 0% 0.5%  
2 0% 0.5%  
3 0.1% 0.5%  
4 0.4% 0.4% Last Result
5 0% 0%  

Stranka modernega centra

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka modernega centra page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 43 53 99.9% 50–55 49–56 48–57 47–59
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca 38 48 83% 45–50 44–50 43–52 42–54
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 35 35 0% 31–37 30–37 29–38 29–39
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra 50 35 0% 31–37 30–38 29–38 29–40
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 45 35 0% 31–37 30–37 29–38 29–39
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 28 29 0% 26–31 25–32 25–33 24–33
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra 43 29 0% 26–31 26–32 25–33 24–34
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 38 29 0% 26–31 25–32 25–33 24–33
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 30 29 0% 26–31 26–32 24–33 24–33
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 40 29 0% 26–31 26–32 24–33 24–33
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca 23 24 0% 21–26 21–27 20–27 19–28
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra 33 24 0% 21–26 21–27 20–27 19–28
Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 25 18 0% 15–19 14–19 14–20 12–21

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0% 100% Last Result
44 0% 100%  
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.2% 99.9% Majority
47 1.0% 99.7%  
48 2% 98.7%  
49 6% 97%  
50 6% 90%  
51 8% 84%  
52 18% 76% Median
53 37% 58%  
54 9% 20%  
55 6% 12%  
56 2% 5%  
57 1.2% 3%  
58 1.4% 2%  
59 0.5% 0.6%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100% Last Result
39 0% 100%  
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.3% 99.9%  
42 1.0% 99.7%  
43 2% 98.7%  
44 3% 97%  
45 10% 94%  
46 12% 83% Majority
47 15% 72% Median
48 37% 57%  
49 9% 20%  
50 6% 11%  
51 2% 5%  
52 1.2% 3%  
53 0.6% 2%  
54 0.8% 0.9%  
55 0% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0% 100%  
27 0.1% 99.9%  
28 0.3% 99.8%  
29 4% 99.5%  
30 3% 96%  
31 7% 93%  
32 9% 86%  
33 12% 78%  
34 14% 65%  
35 20% 52% Last Result, Median
36 21% 32%  
37 7% 11%  
38 3% 4%  
39 0.8% 1.0%  
40 0.1% 0.2%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0% 100%  
27 0.1% 99.9%  
28 0.2% 99.8%  
29 3% 99.6%  
30 2% 97%  
31 7% 95%  
32 8% 88%  
33 13% 80%  
34 13% 67%  
35 20% 54% Median
36 21% 34%  
37 8% 13%  
38 4% 5%  
39 0.9% 1.4%  
40 0.2% 0.5%  
41 0.2% 0.3%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0% Majority
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0% Last Result

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0% 100%  
27 0.1% 99.9%  
28 0.3% 99.8%  
29 4% 99.5%  
30 3% 96%  
31 7% 93%  
32 9% 86%  
33 12% 78%  
34 14% 65%  
35 20% 52% Median
36 21% 32%  
37 7% 11%  
38 3% 4%  
39 0.8% 1.0%  
40 0.1% 0.2%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0% Last Result

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.2% 99.9%  
24 2% 99.7%  
25 4% 98%  
26 8% 94%  
27 9% 87%  
28 12% 78% Last Result
29 26% 66%  
30 10% 40% Median
31 22% 29%  
32 5% 7%  
33 3% 3%  
34 0.2% 0.3%  
35 0.1% 0.2%  
36 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.2% 100%  
24 1.4% 99.8%  
25 3% 98%  
26 8% 95%  
27 8% 88%  
28 11% 79%  
29 25% 68%  
30 11% 43% Median
31 22% 32%  
32 5% 10%  
33 4% 5%  
34 0.4% 0.8%  
35 0.2% 0.4%  
36 0.1% 0.2%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0% Last Result

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.2% 99.9%  
24 2% 99.7%  
25 4% 98%  
26 8% 94%  
27 9% 87%  
28 12% 78%  
29 26% 66%  
30 10% 40% Median
31 22% 29%  
32 5% 7%  
33 3% 3%  
34 0.2% 0.3%  
35 0.1% 0.2%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100%  
22 0.1% 99.9%  
23 0.3% 99.9%  
24 3% 99.6%  
25 2% 97%  
26 7% 95%  
27 11% 88%  
28 14% 77%  
29 15% 63%  
30 17% 48% Last Result, Median
31 24% 32%  
32 4% 8%  
33 3% 4%  
34 0.2% 0.4%  
35 0.1% 0.2%  
36 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100%  
22 0.1% 99.9%  
23 0.3% 99.9%  
24 3% 99.6%  
25 2% 97%  
26 7% 95%  
27 11% 88%  
28 14% 77%  
29 15% 63%  
30 17% 48% Median
31 24% 32%  
32 4% 8%  
33 3% 4%  
34 0.2% 0.4%  
35 0.1% 0.2%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0% Last Result

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.4% 99.9%  
20 3% 99.5%  
21 7% 96%  
22 11% 89%  
23 15% 79% Last Result
24 28% 64%  
25 7% 35% Median
26 22% 28%  
27 4% 6%  
28 1.1% 1.3%  
29 0.2% 0.2%  
30 0% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.4% 99.9%  
20 3% 99.5%  
21 7% 96%  
22 11% 89%  
23 15% 79%  
24 28% 64%  
25 7% 35% Median
26 22% 28%  
27 4% 6%  
28 1.1% 1.3%  
29 0.2% 0.2%  
30 0% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0% Last Result

Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 0.6% 99.9%  
13 1.4% 99.3%  
14 3% 98%  
15 9% 95%  
16 16% 85%  
17 15% 69%  
18 41% 54% Median
19 8% 13%  
20 4% 5%  
21 0.8% 1.0%  
22 0.2% 0.2%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations