Opinion Poll by Mediana for Delo, 9–11 February 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 24.9% 26.8% 24.8–29.0% 24.2–29.7% 23.7–30.2% 22.7–31.3%
Levica 9.3% 15.6% 14.0–17.5% 13.5–18.0% 13.1–18.4% 12.4–19.4%
Socialni demokrati 9.9% 14.7% 13.2–16.6% 12.7–17.1% 12.3–17.5% 11.6–18.5%
Lista Marjana Šarca 12.6% 11.1% 9.7–12.7% 9.3–13.2% 9.0–13.6% 8.4–14.4%
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7.2% 7.3% 6.2–8.7% 5.9–9.1% 5.6–9.5% 5.1–10.2%
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5.1% 5.3% 4.4–6.6% 4.1–6.9% 3.9–7.3% 3.5–7.9%
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4.2% 3.7% 2.9–4.7% 2.7–5.0% 2.5–5.3% 2.2–5.9%
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 4.9% 3.2% 2.5–4.3% 2.3–4.5% 2.2–4.8% 1.9–5.3%
Stranka modernega centra 9.7% 1.4% 1.0–2.2% 0.9–2.4% 0.8–2.6% 0.6–3.0%
Slovenska ljudska stranka 2.6% 1.3% 0.9–2.0% 0.8–2.2% 0.7–2.4% 0.5–2.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 25 26 24–28 24–29 23–30 22–30
Levica 9 15 13–17 13–17 13–18 12–18
Socialni demokrati 10 14 12–16 12–16 12–17 11–18
Lista Marjana Šarca 13 10 9–12 9–12 9–13 8–14
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7 7 5–8 5–8 5–9 5–10
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5 5 4–6 4–7 4–7 0–7
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4 0 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–5
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 5 0 0–3 0–4 0–4 0–5
Stranka modernega centra 10 0 0 0 0 0
Slovenska ljudska stranka 0 0 0 0 0 0

Slovenska demokratska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.4% 99.9%  
22 2% 99.5%  
23 3% 98%  
24 8% 95%  
25 21% 88% Last Result
26 21% 67% Median
27 27% 46%  
28 11% 19%  
29 5% 8%  
30 2% 3%  
31 0.2% 0.4%  
32 0.2% 0.2%  
33 0% 0%  

Levica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 0% 100%  
11 0.4% 100%  
12 2% 99.6%  
13 12% 98%  
14 14% 85%  
15 32% 71% Median
16 28% 39%  
17 8% 11%  
18 3% 3%  
19 0.4% 0.4%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.2% 100% Last Result
11 2% 99.8%  
12 9% 98%  
13 18% 89%  
14 21% 71% Median
15 31% 49%  
16 16% 19%  
17 2% 3%  
18 1.0% 1.1%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.1% 100%  
8 2% 99.9%  
9 34% 98%  
10 29% 64% Median
11 20% 35%  
12 10% 15%  
13 4% 5% Last Result
14 0.5% 0.6%  
15 0% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.3% 100%  
5 10% 99.7%  
6 13% 90%  
7 47% 77% Last Result, Median
8 26% 30%  
9 4% 5%  
10 0.9% 1.0%  
11 0% 0%  

Stranka Alenke Bratušek

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 0% 98%  
2 0% 98%  
3 0.2% 98%  
4 38% 98%  
5 41% 60% Last Result, Median
6 13% 19%  
7 6% 6%  
8 0.2% 0.2%  
9 0% 0%  

Slovenska nacionalna stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 76% 100% Median
1 0% 24%  
2 0% 24%  
3 2% 24%  
4 20% 23% Last Result
5 2% 2%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 89% 100% Median
1 0% 11%  
2 0% 11%  
3 3% 11%  
4 7% 8%  
5 0.6% 0.6% Last Result
6 0% 0%  

Stranka modernega centra

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka modernega centra page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Slovenska ljudska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska ljudska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 43 36 0% 34–40 34–41 34–41 32–43
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 50 37 0% 33–39 33–40 33–41 32–42
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca 38 36 0% 34–39 34–40 33–41 31–41
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 35 32 0% 29–34 29–35 28–36 27–38
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 45 32 0% 29–34 29–35 28–36 27–38
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 30 31 0% 29–34 28–34 28–35 27–36
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 40 31 0% 29–34 28–34 28–35 27–36
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 43 29 0% 27–33 26–33 26–33 25–35
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 28 25 0% 22–27 22–28 21–29 21–31
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 38 25 0% 22–27 22–28 21–29 21–31
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca 23 24 0% 22–27 22–27 21–28 20–29
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra 33 24 0% 22–27 22–27 21–28 20–29
Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 25 15 0% 13–17 12–18 12–18 11–20

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.5% 99.9%  
33 2% 99.4%  
34 8% 98%  
35 21% 90%  
36 21% 69% Median
37 13% 48%  
38 16% 35%  
39 6% 19%  
40 6% 13%  
41 6% 7%  
42 1.0% 2%  
43 0.4% 0.5% Last Result
44 0.2% 0.2%  
45 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.3% 99.9%  
32 0.9% 99.6%  
33 9% 98.7%  
34 6% 89%  
35 8% 84%  
36 23% 75% Median
37 17% 52%  
38 16% 35%  
39 11% 19%  
40 4% 8%  
41 3% 4%  
42 0.6% 1.0%  
43 0.2% 0.3%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0% Majority
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0% Last Result

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.5% 99.9%  
32 1.3% 99.5%  
33 3% 98%  
34 9% 96%  
35 22% 87%  
36 22% 64% Median
37 16% 43%  
38 15% 27% Last Result
39 4% 12%  
40 5% 9%  
41 4% 4%  
42 0.2% 0.5%  
43 0.2% 0.3%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.8% 99.9%  
28 2% 99.1%  
29 10% 97%  
30 7% 86%  
31 25% 79% Median
32 16% 54%  
33 17% 38%  
34 14% 22%  
35 4% 8% Last Result
36 2% 4%  
37 1.0% 2%  
38 0.3% 0.7%  
39 0.3% 0.4%  
40 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.8% 99.9%  
28 2% 99.1%  
29 10% 97%  
30 7% 86%  
31 25% 79% Median
32 16% 54%  
33 17% 38%  
34 14% 22%  
35 4% 8%  
36 2% 4%  
37 1.0% 2%  
38 0.3% 0.7%  
39 0.3% 0.4%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0% Last Result

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 2% 99.8%  
28 4% 98%  
29 12% 94%  
30 9% 82% Last Result
31 26% 73% Median
32 15% 47%  
33 16% 32%  
34 12% 16%  
35 3% 4%  
36 1.1% 2%  
37 0.3% 0.4%  
38 0.1% 0.2%  
39 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 2% 99.8%  
28 4% 98%  
29 12% 94%  
30 9% 82%  
31 26% 73% Median
32 15% 47%  
33 16% 32%  
34 12% 16%  
35 3% 4%  
36 1.1% 2%  
37 0.3% 0.4%  
38 0.1% 0.2%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0% Last Result

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.3% 99.9%  
25 0.4% 99.6%  
26 9% 99.1%  
27 6% 90%  
28 6% 84%  
29 32% 78% Median
30 17% 46%  
31 6% 29%  
32 12% 23%  
33 8% 10%  
34 2% 2%  
35 0.6% 0.8%  
36 0.1% 0.2%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0% Last Result

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.5% 100%  
21 2% 99.5%  
22 10% 97%  
23 7% 87%  
24 25% 80% Median
25 20% 54%  
26 14% 34%  
27 12% 21%  
28 5% 8% Last Result
29 2% 3%  
30 0.8% 1.4%  
31 0.2% 0.6%  
32 0.3% 0.3%  
33 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.5% 100%  
21 2% 99.5%  
22 10% 97%  
23 7% 87%  
24 25% 80% Median
25 20% 54%  
26 14% 35%  
27 12% 21%  
28 5% 8%  
29 2% 3%  
30 0.8% 1.4%  
31 0.2% 0.6%  
32 0.3% 0.3%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.8% 99.9%  
21 3% 99.1%  
22 12% 96%  
23 10% 84% Last Result
24 27% 75% Median
25 21% 47%  
26 13% 27%  
27 10% 14%  
28 3% 4%  
29 0.7% 0.9%  
30 0.1% 0.2%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.8% 99.9%  
21 3% 99.1%  
22 12% 96%  
23 10% 84%  
24 27% 75% Median
25 21% 48%  
26 13% 27%  
27 10% 14%  
28 3% 4%  
29 0.7% 0.9%  
30 0.1% 0.2%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0% Last Result

Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 1.4% 99.9%  
12 7% 98%  
13 15% 92%  
14 19% 76% Median
15 31% 58%  
16 17% 27%  
17 4% 10%  
18 4% 6%  
19 2% 2%  
20 0.6% 0.7%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations