Opinion Poll by Ninamedia for Dnevnik, Večer, 9–11 February 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 24.9% 26.6% 24.5–28.8% 23.9–29.4% 23.4–30.0% 22.5–31.1%
Socialni demokrati 9.9% 20.4% 18.6–22.5% 18.0–23.1% 17.6–23.6% 16.8–24.6%
Lista Marjana Šarca 12.6% 15.9% 14.2–17.8% 13.7–18.3% 13.3–18.8% 12.6–19.7%
Levica 9.3% 13.7% 12.2–15.5% 11.7–16.0% 11.4–16.5% 10.7–17.4%
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7.2% 6.6% 5.5–7.9% 5.2–8.3% 5.0–8.7% 4.5–9.4%
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5.1% 4.9% 4.0–6.1% 3.7–6.4% 3.5–6.7% 3.1–7.3%
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 4.9% 4.9% 4.0–6.1% 3.7–6.4% 3.5–6.7% 3.1–7.3%
Slovenska ljudska stranka 2.6% 3.3% 2.6–4.3% 2.4–4.6% 2.2–4.9% 1.9–5.4%
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4.2% 1.9% 1.3–2.7% 1.2–2.9% 1.1–3.2% 0.9–3.6%
Stranka modernega centra 9.7% 1.6% 1.1–2.4% 1.0–2.6% 0.9–2.8% 0.7–3.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 25 25 23–28 23–29 22–30 21–30
Socialni demokrati 10 20 18–22 17–22 16–23 16–24
Lista Marjana Šarca 13 15 13–17 13–18 13–18 12–19
Levica 9 13 11–14 11–15 10–16 10–17
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7 6 5–7 5–8 4–8 4–9
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5 4 0–6 0–6 0–6 0–7
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 5 4 0–6 0–6 0–6 0–7
Slovenska ljudska stranka 0 0 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–5
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4 0 0 0 0 0
Stranka modernega centra 10 0 0 0 0 0

Slovenska demokratska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 1.1% 99.9%  
22 1.4% 98.8%  
23 8% 97%  
24 15% 90%  
25 26% 75% Last Result, Median
26 26% 48%  
27 5% 23%  
28 9% 17%  
29 5% 8%  
30 3% 3%  
31 0.2% 0.2%  
32 0% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100% Last Result
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.2% 100%  
16 3% 99.8%  
17 6% 97%  
18 11% 91%  
19 26% 80%  
20 24% 54% Median
21 17% 29%  
22 9% 12%  
23 2% 3%  
24 1.0% 1.1%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.2% 100%  
12 2% 99.7%  
13 20% 98% Last Result
14 21% 78%  
15 27% 56% Median
16 15% 30%  
17 7% 15%  
18 7% 8%  
19 0.7% 1.1%  
20 0.4% 0.4%  
21 0% 0%  

Levica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100% Last Result
10 3% 99.9%  
11 10% 97%  
12 27% 87%  
13 27% 60% Median
14 24% 33%  
15 6% 9%  
16 1.3% 3%  
17 2% 2%  
18 0% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 5% 99.9%  
5 27% 95%  
6 35% 68% Median
7 27% 33% Last Result
8 5% 6%  
9 0.8% 0.9%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Stranka Alenke Bratušek

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 10% 100%  
1 0% 90%  
2 0% 90%  
3 2% 90%  
4 43% 88% Median
5 30% 45% Last Result
6 13% 15%  
7 1.0% 1.1%  
8 0% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 11% 100%  
1 0% 89%  
2 0% 89%  
3 3% 89%  
4 41% 86% Median
5 33% 45% Last Result
6 11% 12%  
7 0.8% 0.9%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Slovenska ljudska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska ljudska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 82% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 18%  
2 0% 18%  
3 7% 18%  
4 10% 11%  
5 0.9% 0.9%  
6 0% 0%  

Slovenska nacionalna stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
5 0% 0%  

Stranka modernega centra

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka modernega centra page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra 50 49 92% 46–51 45–52 44–52 43–54
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 35 45 33% 42–47 41–48 40–49 39–51
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 45 45 33% 42–47 41–48 40–49 39–51
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 43 44 28% 42–48 41–49 40–49 39–50
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra 43 43 7% 40–45 39–46 38–46 36–48
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 30 41 2% 38–43 37–44 37–45 36–48
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 40 41 2% 38–43 37–44 37–45 36–48
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca 38 40 0.9% 38–44 37–45 36–45 36–46
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 28 39 0% 36–41 35–42 34–43 33–44
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 38 39 0% 36–41 35–42 34–43 33–44
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca 23 34 0% 32–37 31–38 31–39 30–40
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra 33 34 0% 32–37 31–38 31–39 30–40
Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 25 24 0% 21–26 20–27 19–28 18–28

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.2% 99.9%  
42 0.2% 99.7%  
43 1.4% 99.5%  
44 1.5% 98%  
45 5% 97%  
46 7% 92% Majority
47 7% 85%  
48 11% 78%  
49 29% 67% Median
50 20% 38% Last Result
51 10% 18%  
52 6% 8%  
53 1.0% 2%  
54 0.6% 0.7%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100% Last Result
36 0% 100%  
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.1% 99.9%  
39 0.4% 99.8%  
40 2% 99.4%  
41 6% 97%  
42 7% 91%  
43 17% 85%  
44 9% 68%  
45 27% 59% Median
46 14% 33% Majority
47 12% 19%  
48 3% 7%  
49 2% 4%  
50 0.9% 2%  
51 0.4% 0.8%  
52 0.4% 0.4%  
53 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.1% 99.9%  
39 0.4% 99.8%  
40 2% 99.4%  
41 6% 97%  
42 7% 91%  
43 17% 85%  
44 9% 68%  
45 27% 59% Last Result, Median
46 14% 33% Majority
47 12% 19%  
48 3% 7%  
49 2% 4%  
50 0.9% 2%  
51 0.4% 0.8%  
52 0.4% 0.4%  
53 0% 0%  

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.2% 100%  
38 0.1% 99.8%  
39 0.5% 99.7%  
40 2% 99.2%  
41 3% 97%  
42 6% 94%  
43 22% 88% Last Result
44 27% 67% Median
45 12% 40%  
46 8% 28% Majority
47 5% 20%  
48 9% 15%  
49 4% 6%  
50 1.4% 2%  
51 0.2% 0.3%  
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 2% 99.9%  
37 0.5% 98%  
38 1.3% 98%  
39 3% 97%  
40 12% 93%  
41 4% 81%  
42 12% 77%  
43 25% 65% Last Result, Median
44 19% 40%  
45 14% 21%  
46 5% 7% Majority
47 1.4% 2%  
48 0.4% 0.6%  
49 0.2% 0.2%  
50 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100% Last Result
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.2% 99.9%  
36 1.3% 99.7%  
37 6% 98%  
38 10% 92%  
39 12% 82%  
40 14% 70%  
41 31% 55% Median
42 7% 25%  
43 10% 18%  
44 4% 7%  
45 1.3% 4%  
46 1.3% 2% Majority
47 0.3% 0.9%  
48 0.5% 0.6%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.2% 99.9%  
36 1.3% 99.7%  
37 6% 98%  
38 10% 92%  
39 12% 82%  
40 14% 70% Last Result
41 31% 55% Median
42 7% 25%  
43 10% 18%  
44 4% 7%  
45 1.3% 4%  
46 1.3% 2% Majority
47 0.3% 0.9%  
48 0.5% 0.6%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.3% 99.9%  
36 3% 99.5%  
37 6% 97%  
38 4% 91% Last Result
39 31% 87%  
40 14% 56% Median
41 12% 43%  
42 9% 31%  
43 10% 22%  
44 7% 13%  
45 4% 5%  
46 0.4% 0.9% Majority
47 0.4% 0.5%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.2% 99.9%  
33 0.6% 99.7%  
34 2% 99.1%  
35 4% 97%  
36 9% 92%  
37 12% 83%  
38 19% 71%  
39 18% 53% Median
40 16% 35%  
41 10% 18%  
42 5% 8%  
43 1.5% 3%  
44 1.4% 2%  
45 0.2% 0.2%  
46 0% 0% Majority

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.2% 99.9%  
33 0.6% 99.7%  
34 2% 99.1%  
35 4% 97%  
36 9% 92%  
37 12% 83%  
38 19% 71% Last Result
39 18% 53% Median
40 16% 35%  
41 10% 18%  
42 5% 8%  
43 1.5% 3%  
44 1.4% 2%  
45 0.2% 0.2%  
46 0% 0% Majority

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.2% 99.9%  
30 1.4% 99.7%  
31 4% 98%  
32 11% 94%  
33 11% 83%  
34 25% 72%  
35 17% 47% Median
36 13% 30%  
37 11% 17%  
38 3% 6%  
39 2% 3%  
40 1.3% 2%  
41 0.2% 0.2%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.2% 99.9%  
30 1.4% 99.7%  
31 4% 98%  
32 11% 94%  
33 11% 83% Last Result
34 25% 72%  
35 17% 47% Median
36 13% 30%  
37 11% 17%  
38 3% 6%  
39 2% 3%  
40 1.3% 2%  
41 0.2% 0.2%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0.7% 99.9%  
19 3% 99.2%  
20 4% 96%  
21 6% 92%  
22 11% 86%  
23 12% 75%  
24 28% 63% Median
25 15% 35% Last Result
26 14% 20%  
27 2% 6%  
28 3% 3%  
29 0.4% 0.4%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations