Opinion Poll by Mediana for POP TV, 1–28 February 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 24.9% 27.5% 25.4–29.7% 24.8–30.3% 24.3–30.9% 23.3–32.0%
Socialni demokrati 9.9% 16.6% 14.9–18.5% 14.5–19.1% 14.1–19.5% 13.3–20.5%
Levica 9.3% 12.4% 10.9–14.1% 10.5–14.6% 10.2–15.0% 9.5–15.9%
Lista Marjana Šarca 12.6% 12.0% 10.5–13.7% 10.1–14.1% 9.8–14.6% 9.1–15.4%
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7.2% 6.5% 5.4–7.8% 5.1–8.2% 4.9–8.5% 4.4–9.2%
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5.1% 5.9% 4.9–7.2% 4.6–7.6% 4.4–7.9% 4.0–8.6%
Slovenska ljudska stranka 2.6% 3.9% 3.2–5.1% 2.9–5.4% 2.7–5.7% 2.4–6.2%
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4.2% 3.5% 2.8–4.6% 2.6–4.9% 2.4–5.2% 2.1–5.7%
Piratska stranka Slovenije 2.2% 3.0% 2.3–3.9% 2.1–4.2% 1.9–4.5% 1.7–5.0%
Dobra država 1.5% 2.4% 1.8–3.3% 1.6–3.6% 1.5–3.8% 1.3–4.3%
Andrej Čuš in Zeleni Slovenije 1.1% 2.1% 1.6–3.0% 1.4–3.2% 1.3–3.5% 1.1–3.9%
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 4.9% 1.8% 1.3–2.7% 1.2–2.9% 1.1–3.1% 0.9–3.6%
Stranka modernega centra 9.7% 1.3% 0.9–2.0% 0.8–2.2% 0.7–2.4% 0.5–2.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 25 28 27–31 26–32 25–33 23–34
Socialni demokrati 10 19 17–20 16–21 15–21 13–21
Levica 9 15 11–15 11–15 10–16 10–17
Lista Marjana Šarca 13 14 11–15 11–15 10–15 8–16
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7 6 5–7 5–8 5–8 4–10
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5 5 5–7 4–7 4–8 0–8
Slovenska ljudska stranka 0 0 0–4 0–5 0–5 0–6
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4 0 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–5
Piratska stranka Slovenije 0 0 0 0–4 0–4 0–5
Dobra država 0 0 0 0 0 0–4
Andrej Čuš in Zeleni Slovenije 0 0 0 0 0 0
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 5 0 0 0 0 0
Stranka modernega centra 10 0 0 0 0 0

Slovenska demokratska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.6% 99.9%  
24 0.6% 99.2%  
25 1.2% 98.6% Last Result
26 5% 97%  
27 16% 92%  
28 40% 76% Median
29 16% 36%  
30 8% 20%  
31 5% 12%  
32 3% 7%  
33 3% 4%  
34 0.8% 0.9%  
35 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100% Last Result
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0.6% 100%  
14 1.4% 99.4%  
15 2% 98%  
16 5% 96%  
17 3% 91%  
18 19% 88%  
19 22% 69% Median
20 38% 47%  
21 9% 9%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Levica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.2% 100% Last Result
10 3% 99.8%  
11 9% 97%  
12 23% 88%  
13 14% 65%  
14 1.3% 51%  
15 47% 50% Median
16 2% 3%  
17 1.0% 1.1%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.6% 100%  
9 1.5% 99.4%  
10 2% 98%  
11 8% 95%  
12 17% 88%  
13 8% 71% Last Result
14 45% 63% Median
15 17% 18%  
16 0.7% 1.0%  
17 0.3% 0.3%  
18 0% 0%  

Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0.9% 99.9%  
5 11% 99.1%  
6 59% 88% Median
7 22% 29% Last Result
8 5% 7%  
9 1.3% 2%  
10 1.0% 1.0%  
11 0% 0%  

Stranka Alenke Bratušek

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.1% 100%  
1 0% 98.9%  
2 0% 98.9%  
3 0% 98.9%  
4 7% 98.9%  
5 44% 92% Last Result, Median
6 24% 48%  
7 21% 24%  
8 3% 3%  
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  

Slovenska ljudska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska ljudska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 84% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 16%  
2 0% 16%  
3 0% 16%  
4 9% 16%  
5 7% 7%  
6 0.5% 0.6%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Slovenska nacionalna stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 83% 100% Median
1 0% 17%  
2 0% 17%  
3 0% 17%  
4 16% 17% Last Result
5 1.4% 2%  
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0%  

Piratska stranka Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratska stranka Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 92% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 8%  
2 0% 8%  
3 0% 8%  
4 7% 8%  
5 1.0% 1.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Dobra država

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Dobra država page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.2% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.8%  
2 0% 0.8%  
3 0% 0.8%  
4 0.6% 0.8%  
5 0.2% 0.2%  
6 0% 0%  

Andrej Čuš in Zeleni Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Andrej Čuš in Zeleni Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.6% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.4%  
2 0% 0.4%  
3 0% 0.4%  
4 0.4% 0.4%  
5 0% 0%  

Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0% Last Result

Stranka modernega centra

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka modernega centra page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 50 45 24% 42–47 38–47 37–47 36–47
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 43 42 3% 39–44 37–44 37–46 36–47
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca 38 42 3% 39–44 37–44 37–46 36–47
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 43 39 0% 35–41 32–41 31–41 30–41
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 35 40 0% 36–40 34–40 32–40 31–41
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 45 40 0% 36–40 34–40 32–40 31–41
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 30 40 0% 36–40 34–40 32–40 31–41
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 40 40 0% 36–40 34–40 32–40 31–41
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 28 33 0% 29–34 27–34 25–34 24–34
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 38 33 0% 29–34 27–34 25–34 24–34
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca 23 33 0% 29–34 27–34 25–34 24–34
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra 33 33 0% 29–34 27–34 25–34 24–34
Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 25 19 0% 17–20 16–21 15–21 13–21

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 1.3% 99.9%  
37 2% 98.6%  
38 2% 96%  
39 1.2% 95%  
40 1.3% 93%  
41 2% 92%  
42 8% 90%  
43 13% 83%  
44 4% 70% Median
45 42% 66%  
46 9% 24% Majority
47 14% 14%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0% Last Result

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.2% 99.9%  
36 0.9% 99.7%  
37 4% 98.8%  
38 2% 94%  
39 14% 92%  
40 5% 78%  
41 2% 73%  
42 39% 71% Median
43 5% 32% Last Result
44 22% 27%  
45 2% 5%  
46 1.5% 3% Majority
47 1.3% 2%  
48 0.4% 0.4%  
49 0% 0%  

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.2% 99.9%  
36 0.9% 99.7%  
37 4% 98.8%  
38 2% 94% Last Result
39 14% 92%  
40 5% 78%  
41 2% 73%  
42 39% 71% Median
43 5% 32%  
44 22% 27%  
45 2% 5%  
46 1.5% 3% Majority
47 1.3% 2%  
48 0.4% 0.4%  
49 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.2% 100%  
30 2% 99.8%  
31 2% 98%  
32 3% 96%  
33 2% 94%  
34 2% 92%  
35 5% 90%  
36 7% 85%  
37 8% 78%  
38 7% 70% Median
39 48% 63%  
40 0.3% 15%  
41 14% 14%  
42 0% 0.1%  
43 0% 0% Last Result

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.3% 99.9%  
31 1.1% 99.6%  
32 3% 98.5%  
33 0.7% 96%  
34 2% 95%  
35 2% 94% Last Result
36 5% 91%  
37 13% 86%  
38 7% 73%  
39 9% 66% Median
40 56% 57%  
41 1.1% 1.2%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.3% 99.9%  
31 1.1% 99.6%  
32 3% 98.5%  
33 0.7% 96%  
34 2% 95%  
35 2% 94%  
36 5% 91%  
37 13% 86%  
38 7% 73%  
39 9% 66% Median
40 56% 57%  
41 1.1% 1.2%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0% Last Result

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.3% 99.9% Last Result
31 1.1% 99.6%  
32 3% 98.5%  
33 0.7% 96%  
34 2% 95%  
35 2% 93%  
36 5% 91%  
37 13% 86%  
38 7% 73%  
39 9% 66% Median
40 56% 57%  
41 1.1% 1.2%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.3% 99.9%  
31 1.1% 99.6%  
32 3% 98.5%  
33 0.7% 96%  
34 2% 95%  
35 2% 93%  
36 5% 91%  
37 13% 86%  
38 7% 73%  
39 9% 66% Median
40 56% 57% Last Result
41 1.1% 1.2%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 1.1% 100%  
25 1.4% 98.9%  
26 0.6% 97%  
27 4% 97%  
28 2% 93% Last Result
29 2% 92%  
30 9% 89%  
31 6% 80%  
32 13% 74%  
33 13% 61% Median
34 48% 48%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 1.1% 100%  
25 1.4% 98.9%  
26 0.6% 97%  
27 4% 97%  
28 2% 93%  
29 2% 92%  
30 9% 89%  
31 6% 80%  
32 13% 74%  
33 13% 61% Median
34 48% 48%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 1.1% 100%  
25 1.4% 98.9%  
26 0.6% 97%  
27 4% 97%  
28 2% 93%  
29 2% 92%  
30 9% 89%  
31 6% 80%  
32 13% 74%  
33 13% 61% Median
34 48% 48%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 1.1% 100%  
25 1.4% 98.9%  
26 0.6% 97%  
27 4% 97%  
28 2% 93%  
29 2% 92%  
30 9% 89%  
31 6% 80%  
32 13% 74%  
33 13% 61% Last Result, Median
34 48% 48%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.6% 100%  
14 1.4% 99.4%  
15 2% 98%  
16 5% 96%  
17 3% 91%  
18 19% 88%  
19 22% 69% Median
20 38% 47%  
21 9% 9%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations