Opinion Poll by Parsifal for Nova 24TV, 1–4 March 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 24.9% 28.7% 26.6–31.0% 26.0–31.6% 25.5–32.2% 24.6–33.2%
Socialni demokrati 9.9% 18.3% 16.5–20.2% 16.0–20.8% 15.6–21.3% 14.8–22.2%
Lista Marjana Šarca 12.6% 12.4% 11.0–14.1% 10.5–14.6% 10.2–15.0% 9.5–15.9%
Levica 9.3% 10.0% 8.7–11.6% 8.4–12.1% 8.0–12.5% 7.5–13.3%
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7.2% 6.8% 5.8–8.2% 5.5–8.6% 5.2–8.9% 4.7–9.6%
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4.2% 5.2% 4.2–6.4% 4.0–6.7% 3.8–7.0% 3.4–7.7%
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5.1% 3.6% 2.9–4.7% 2.7–5.0% 2.5–5.3% 2.2–5.8%
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 4.9% 3.2% 2.5–4.2% 2.3–4.5% 2.1–4.8% 1.8–5.3%
Dobra država 1.5% 2.9% 2.3–3.9% 2.1–4.2% 1.9–4.5% 1.6–5.0%
Slovenska ljudska stranka 2.6% 2.1% 1.6–3.0% 1.4–3.2% 1.3–3.4% 1.1–3.9%
Piratska stranka Slovenije 2.2% 2.1% 1.6–3.0% 1.4–3.2% 1.3–3.4% 1.1–3.9%
Stranka modernega centra 9.7% 1.8% 1.3–2.6% 1.2–2.9% 1.1–3.1% 0.9–3.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 25 30 28–34 27–35 26–35 25–36
Socialni demokrati 10 19 17–22 16–24 16–24 16–24
Lista Marjana Šarca 13 12 11–15 10–15 10–15 9–17
Levica 9 11 9–13 9–14 8–14 7–14
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7 7 6–8 5–9 5–9 4–10
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4 5 4–6 0–7 0–7 0–8
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5 0 0–5 0–5 0–6 0–6
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 5 0 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–5
Dobra država 0 0 0 0–4 0–4 0–5
Slovenska ljudska stranka 0 0 0 0 0 0
Piratska stranka Slovenije 0 0 0 0 0 0
Stranka modernega centra 10 0 0 0 0 0

Slovenska demokratska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.2% 100%  
25 0.5% 99.7% Last Result
26 3% 99.3%  
27 4% 96%  
28 12% 92%  
29 10% 80%  
30 22% 70% Median
31 11% 48%  
32 13% 37%  
33 9% 24%  
34 8% 15%  
35 6% 7%  
36 0.8% 0.9%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100% Last Result
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.4% 99.9%  
16 5% 99.5%  
17 11% 95%  
18 26% 84%  
19 16% 58% Median
20 18% 41%  
21 7% 24%  
22 9% 16%  
23 2% 7%  
24 5% 5%  
25 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.5% 100%  
10 5% 99.5%  
11 16% 95%  
12 32% 79% Median
13 18% 47% Last Result
14 14% 29%  
15 13% 16%  
16 1.4% 2%  
17 0.7% 0.9%  
18 0.1% 0.2%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Levica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.6% 100%  
8 4% 99.4%  
9 19% 95% Last Result
10 24% 77%  
11 17% 53% Median
12 24% 36%  
13 6% 12%  
14 6% 6%  
15 0.3% 0.3%  
16 0% 0%  

Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 1.0% 99.9%  
5 6% 99.0%  
6 22% 93%  
7 51% 71% Last Result, Median
8 12% 20%  
9 7% 8%  
10 0.8% 0.9%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Slovenska nacionalna stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 8% 100%  
1 0% 92%  
2 0% 92%  
3 0% 92%  
4 24% 92% Last Result
5 34% 69% Median
6 28% 35%  
7 4% 6%  
8 2% 2%  
9 0% 0%  

Stranka Alenke Bratušek

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 63% 100% Median
1 0% 37%  
2 0% 37%  
3 0% 37%  
4 19% 37%  
5 13% 18% Last Result
6 5% 5%  
7 0% 0%  

Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 84% 100% Median
1 0% 16%  
2 0% 16%  
3 0% 16%  
4 14% 16%  
5 2% 2% Last Result
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Dobra država

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Dobra država page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 93% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 7%  
2 0% 7%  
3 0.1% 7%  
4 6% 6%  
5 0.8% 0.8%  
6 0% 0%  

Slovenska ljudska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska ljudska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Piratska stranka Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratska stranka Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.6% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.4%  
2 0% 0.4%  
3 0% 0.4%  
4 0.4% 0.4%  
5 0% 0%  

Stranka modernega centra

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka modernega centra page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Median
1 0% 0.2%  
2 0% 0.2%  
3 0% 0.2%  
4 0.2% 0.2%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 43 44 32% 40–48 40–48 40–49 37–50
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca 38 43 24% 40–47 40–48 39–48 37–49
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 50 41 4% 38–44 38–45 37–46 36–48
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 35 39 1.3% 36–43 36–44 36–44 34–46
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 45 39 1.3% 36–43 36–44 36–44 34–46
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 30 39 0.7% 36–42 36–43 35–43 34–46
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 40 39 0.7% 36–42 36–43 35–43 34–46
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 43 34 0% 32–37 31–39 30–39 29–41
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 28 32 0% 29–36 29–37 29–37 28–39
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 38 32 0% 29–36 29–37 29–37 28–39
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca 23 32 0% 29–35 29–36 28–36 27–38
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra 33 32 0% 29–35 29–36 28–36 27–38
Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 25 20 0% 17–23 17–24 16–25 16–25

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.2% 100%  
37 0.4% 99.8%  
38 0.7% 99.5%  
39 1.0% 98.8%  
40 8% 98%  
41 4% 90%  
42 16% 86% Median
43 17% 69% Last Result
44 12% 53%  
45 8% 41%  
46 7% 32% Majority
47 16% 26%  
48 7% 10%  
49 2% 3%  
50 0.4% 0.6%  
51 0.1% 0.2%  
52 0% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.2% 100%  
37 0.7% 99.8%  
38 0.9% 99.1% Last Result
39 3% 98%  
40 12% 95%  
41 5% 83%  
42 17% 78% Median
43 21% 61%  
44 9% 40%  
45 6% 30%  
46 6% 24% Majority
47 9% 18%  
48 7% 9%  
49 2% 2%  
50 0.2% 0.3%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.1% 99.9%  
36 0.8% 99.7%  
37 3% 98.9%  
38 9% 96% Median
39 16% 86%  
40 6% 70%  
41 16% 64%  
42 18% 48%  
43 9% 30%  
44 13% 20%  
45 3% 7%  
46 2% 4% Majority
47 1.2% 2%  
48 0.7% 1.1%  
49 0.2% 0.4%  
50 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
51 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.5% 99.9%  
35 1.2% 99.4% Last Result
36 11% 98%  
37 13% 88%  
38 13% 75% Median
39 17% 62%  
40 9% 45%  
41 11% 36%  
42 8% 25%  
43 7% 16%  
44 7% 9%  
45 0.7% 2%  
46 0.9% 1.3% Majority
47 0.1% 0.4%  
48 0.3% 0.3%  
49 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.5% 99.9%  
35 1.2% 99.4%  
36 11% 98%  
37 13% 88%  
38 13% 75% Median
39 17% 62%  
40 9% 45%  
41 11% 36%  
42 8% 25%  
43 7% 16%  
44 7% 9%  
45 0.7% 2% Last Result
46 1.0% 1.3% Majority
47 0.1% 0.4%  
48 0.3% 0.3%  
49 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100% Last Result
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0.3% 99.9%  
34 0.7% 99.6%  
35 2% 98.9%  
36 12% 97%  
37 16% 85%  
38 14% 69% Median
39 17% 55%  
40 15% 37%  
41 9% 23%  
42 6% 14%  
43 6% 8%  
44 0.5% 1.4%  
45 0.3% 1.0%  
46 0.3% 0.7% Majority
47 0.1% 0.3%  
48 0.3% 0.3%  
49 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0% 100%  
33 0.3% 99.9%  
34 0.7% 99.6%  
35 2% 98.9%  
36 12% 97%  
37 16% 85%  
38 14% 69% Median
39 17% 55%  
40 15% 37% Last Result
41 9% 23%  
42 6% 14%  
43 6% 8%  
44 0.5% 1.5%  
45 0.3% 1.0%  
46 0.3% 0.7% Majority
47 0.1% 0.3%  
48 0.3% 0.3%  
49 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.4% 100%  
29 0.8% 99.5%  
30 4% 98.7%  
31 4% 95% Median
32 21% 91%  
33 6% 70%  
34 16% 65%  
35 18% 48%  
36 10% 30%  
37 11% 20%  
38 2% 9%  
39 5% 6%  
40 0.7% 2%  
41 0.4% 0.9%  
42 0.4% 0.4%  
43 0% 0.1% Last Result
44 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.2% 99.9%  
28 1.3% 99.7% Last Result
29 10% 98%  
30 14% 88%  
31 8% 74% Median
32 21% 66%  
33 9% 45%  
34 10% 37%  
35 9% 27%  
36 9% 18%  
37 7% 9%  
38 0.7% 2%  
39 1.1% 1.3%  
40 0.2% 0.2%  
41 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.2% 99.9%  
28 1.3% 99.7%  
29 10% 98%  
30 14% 88%  
31 8% 74% Median
32 21% 67%  
33 9% 46%  
34 10% 37%  
35 9% 27%  
36 9% 18%  
37 7% 9%  
38 0.8% 2% Last Result
39 1.1% 1.3%  
40 0.2% 0.2%  
41 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0.3% 100%  
27 0.3% 99.7%  
28 2% 99.3%  
29 11% 97%  
30 16% 87%  
31 11% 71% Median
32 23% 60%  
33 14% 37%  
34 9% 23%  
35 5% 13%  
36 7% 8%  
37 0.4% 1.1%  
38 0.4% 0.8%  
39 0.3% 0.4%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.3% 100%  
27 0.3% 99.7%  
28 2% 99.3%  
29 11% 97%  
30 16% 87%  
31 11% 71% Median
32 23% 60%  
33 14% 37% Last Result
34 9% 23%  
35 6% 14%  
36 7% 8%  
37 0.4% 1.2%  
38 0.4% 0.8%  
39 0.3% 0.4%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.3% 99.9%  
16 4% 99.7%  
17 10% 95%  
18 17% 85%  
19 14% 68% Median
20 16% 54%  
21 6% 37%  
22 17% 31%  
23 5% 14%  
24 6% 9%  
25 3% 3% Last Result
26 0.1% 0.2%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations