Opinion Poll by Ninamedia for Dnevnik, Večer, 9–11 March 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions

Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slovenska demokratska stranka | 24.9% | 29.9% | 27.7–32.1% | 27.1–32.8% | 26.6–33.4% | 25.6–34.5% |
| Socialni demokrati | 9.9% | 20.3% | 18.4–22.3% | 17.9–22.9% | 17.5–23.4% | 16.6–24.4% |
| Lista Marjana Šarca | 12.6% | 13.9% | 12.3–15.7% | 11.9–16.2% | 11.5–16.6% | 10.8–17.5% |
| Levica | 9.3% | 12.1% | 10.7–13.9% | 10.3–14.4% | 9.9–14.8% | 9.3–15.6% |
| Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati | 7.2% | 6.6% | 5.5–7.9% | 5.2–8.3% | 5.0–8.7% | 4.5–9.4% |
| Stranka Alenke Bratušek | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.0–7.3% | 4.7–7.7% | 4.5–8.0% | 4.0–8.7% |
| Slovenska ljudska stranka | 2.6% | 3.0% | 2.3–4.0% | 2.1–4.3% | 2.0–4.6% | 1.7–5.1% |
| Slovenska nacionalna stranka | 4.2% | 2.7% | 2.1–3.7% | 1.9–4.0% | 1.7–4.2% | 1.5–4.7% |
| Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 4.9% | 1.7% | 1.2–2.5% | 1.1–2.8% | 1.0–3.0% | 0.8–3.4% |
| Stranka modernega centra | 9.7% | 1.4% | 1.0–2.2% | 0.9–2.4% | 0.8–2.6% | 0.6–3.0% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats


Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slovenska demokratska stranka | 25 | 30 | 27–33 | 27–33 | 27–34 | 26–34 |
| Socialni demokrati | 10 | 20 | 18–22 | 17–23 | 17–23 | 16–24 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca | 13 | 13 | 12–15 | 12–16 | 11–16 | 10–17 |
| Levica | 9 | 12 | 10–14 | 10–15 | 9–15 | 9–16 |
| Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati | 7 | 6 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 4–8 | 4–9 |
| Stranka Alenke Bratušek | 5 | 6 | 5–7 | 4–7 | 4–7 | 4–8 |
| Slovenska ljudska stranka | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
| Slovenska nacionalna stranka | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
| Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Stranka modernega centra | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Slovenska demokratska stranka
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.3% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 26 | 1.1% | 99.6% | |
| 27 | 14% | 98% | |
| 28 | 11% | 85% | |
| 29 | 16% | 74% | |
| 30 | 19% | 58% | Median |
| 31 | 21% | 39% | |
| 32 | 7% | 18% | |
| 33 | 8% | 11% | |
| 34 | 2% | 3% | |
| 35 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% |
Socialni demokrati
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 17 | 5% | 99.4% | |
| 18 | 11% | 95% | |
| 19 | 20% | 84% | |
| 20 | 18% | 63% | Median |
| 21 | 9% | 45% | |
| 22 | 28% | 36% | |
| 23 | 5% | 7% | |
| 24 | 2% | 2% | |
| 25 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 11 | 4% | 99.4% | |
| 12 | 21% | 96% | |
| 13 | 33% | 75% | Last Result, Median |
| 14 | 23% | 42% | |
| 15 | 13% | 19% | |
| 16 | 4% | 6% | |
| 17 | 0.9% | 1.2% | |
| 18 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Levica
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 9 | 3% | 99.8% | Last Result |
| 10 | 10% | 97% | |
| 11 | 24% | 87% | |
| 12 | 29% | 63% | Median |
| 13 | 23% | 34% | |
| 14 | 4% | 11% | |
| 15 | 6% | 7% | |
| 16 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3% | 100% | |
| 5 | 17% | 97% | |
| 6 | 37% | 80% | Median |
| 7 | 29% | 43% | Last Result |
| 8 | 13% | 14% | |
| 9 | 1.2% | 1.5% | |
| 10 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Stranka Alenke Bratušek
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 3 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 4 | 9% | 99.8% | |
| 5 | 24% | 91% | Last Result |
| 6 | 51% | 67% | Median |
| 7 | 13% | 15% | |
| 8 | 2% | 2% | |
| 9 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Slovenska ljudska stranka
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska ljudska stranka page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 95% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 5% | |
| 2 | 0% | 5% | |
| 3 | 0.3% | 5% | |
| 4 | 4% | 4% | |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Slovenska nacionalna stranka
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 97% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 3% | |
| 3 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 4 | 3% | 3% | Last Result |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Stranka modernega centra
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka modernega centra page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions

Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra | 50 | 46 | 58% | 43–48 | 42–49 | 42–49 | 41–51 |
| Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 43 | 43 | 16% | 40–46 | 40–47 | 40–47 | 39–48 |
| Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca | 38 | 43 | 16% | 40–46 | 40–47 | 40–47 | 39–48 |
| Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 35 | 40 | 0.1% | 38–43 | 37–43 | 36–44 | 35–45 |
| Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra | 45 | 40 | 0.1% | 38–43 | 37–43 | 36–44 | 35–45 |
| Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati | 30 | 40 | 0.1% | 38–43 | 37–43 | 36–44 | 35–45 |
| Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra | 40 | 40 | 0.1% | 38–43 | 37–43 | 36–44 | 35–45 |
| Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra | 43 | 40 | 0% | 37–42 | 36–42 | 35–43 | 34–44 |
| Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 28 | 34 | 0% | 31–36 | 31–37 | 30–37 | 29–38 |
| Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra | 38 | 34 | 0% | 31–36 | 31–37 | 30–37 | 29–38 |
| Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca | 23 | 34 | 0% | 31–36 | 31–37 | 30–37 | 29–38 |
| Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra | 33 | 34 | 0% | 31–36 | 31–37 | 30–37 | 29–38 |
| Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra | 25 | 20 | 0% | 18–22 | 17–23 | 17–23 | 16–25 |
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 39 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 41 | 1.4% | 99.5% | |
| 42 | 4% | 98% | |
| 43 | 7% | 94% | |
| 44 | 15% | 87% | |
| 45 | 14% | 72% | Median |
| 46 | 21% | 58% | Majority |
| 47 | 12% | 37% | |
| 48 | 19% | 25% | |
| 49 | 4% | 7% | |
| 50 | 2% | 2% | Last Result |
| 51 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% |
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 37 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 39 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 40 | 13% | 98% | |
| 41 | 6% | 85% | |
| 42 | 8% | 79% | |
| 43 | 32% | 71% | Last Result, Median |
| 44 | 11% | 39% | |
| 45 | 12% | 28% | |
| 46 | 10% | 16% | Majority |
| 47 | 3% | 5% | |
| 48 | 2% | 2% | |
| 49 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 50 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% |
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 37 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0.3% | 99.8% | Last Result |
| 39 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 40 | 13% | 98% | |
| 41 | 6% | 85% | |
| 42 | 8% | 79% | |
| 43 | 32% | 71% | Median |
| 44 | 11% | 39% | |
| 45 | 12% | 28% | |
| 46 | 10% | 16% | Majority |
| 47 | 3% | 5% | |
| 48 | 2% | 2% | |
| 49 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 50 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% |
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0.6% | 99.7% | Last Result |
| 36 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 37 | 7% | 97% | |
| 38 | 8% | 90% | |
| 39 | 21% | 82% | Median |
| 40 | 24% | 61% | |
| 41 | 14% | 37% | |
| 42 | 12% | 23% | |
| 43 | 8% | 11% | |
| 44 | 2% | 3% | |
| 45 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 47 | 0% | 0% |
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 36 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 37 | 7% | 97% | |
| 38 | 8% | 90% | |
| 39 | 21% | 82% | Median |
| 40 | 24% | 61% | |
| 41 | 14% | 37% | |
| 42 | 12% | 23% | |
| 43 | 8% | 11% | |
| 44 | 2% | 3% | |
| 45 | 0.8% | 1.0% | Last Result |
| 46 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 47 | 0% | 0% |
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 31 | 0% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 36 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 37 | 7% | 97% | |
| 38 | 8% | 90% | |
| 39 | 21% | 82% | Median |
| 40 | 24% | 61% | |
| 41 | 14% | 37% | |
| 42 | 12% | 23% | |
| 43 | 8% | 11% | |
| 44 | 2% | 3% | |
| 45 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 47 | 0% | 0% |
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 36 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 37 | 7% | 97% | |
| 38 | 8% | 90% | |
| 39 | 21% | 82% | Median |
| 40 | 24% | 61% | Last Result |
| 41 | 14% | 37% | |
| 42 | 12% | 23% | |
| 43 | 8% | 11% | |
| 44 | 2% | 3% | |
| 45 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 47 | 0% | 0% |
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 35 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 36 | 4% | 97% | |
| 37 | 9% | 93% | |
| 38 | 19% | 84% | |
| 39 | 15% | 66% | Median |
| 40 | 19% | 50% | |
| 41 | 16% | 32% | |
| 42 | 11% | 16% | |
| 43 | 4% | 5% | Last Result |
| 44 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 45 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0.2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 29 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 30 | 3% | 99.0% | |
| 31 | 8% | 96% | |
| 32 | 13% | 89% | |
| 33 | 22% | 76% | Median |
| 34 | 25% | 54% | |
| 35 | 13% | 29% | |
| 36 | 7% | 16% | |
| 37 | 7% | 9% | |
| 38 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 39 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 40 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% |
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 30 | 3% | 99.0% | |
| 31 | 8% | 96% | |
| 32 | 13% | 89% | |
| 33 | 22% | 76% | Median |
| 34 | 25% | 54% | |
| 35 | 13% | 29% | |
| 36 | 7% | 16% | |
| 37 | 7% | 9% | |
| 38 | 1.3% | 2% | Last Result |
| 39 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 40 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% |
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 30 | 3% | 99.0% | |
| 31 | 8% | 96% | |
| 32 | 13% | 89% | |
| 33 | 22% | 76% | Median |
| 34 | 25% | 54% | |
| 35 | 13% | 29% | |
| 36 | 7% | 16% | |
| 37 | 7% | 9% | |
| 38 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 39 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 40 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% |
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 30 | 3% | 99.0% | |
| 31 | 8% | 96% | |
| 32 | 13% | 89% | |
| 33 | 22% | 76% | Last Result, Median |
| 34 | 25% | 54% | |
| 35 | 13% | 29% | |
| 36 | 7% | 16% | |
| 37 | 7% | 9% | |
| 38 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 39 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 40 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% |
Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 17 | 5% | 99.4% | |
| 18 | 11% | 95% | |
| 19 | 20% | 84% | |
| 20 | 18% | 63% | Median |
| 21 | 9% | 45% | |
| 22 | 28% | 36% | |
| 23 | 5% | 7% | |
| 24 | 2% | 2% | |
| 25 | 0.4% | 0.5% | Last Result |
| 26 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ninamedia
- Commissioner(s): Dnevnik, Večer
- Fieldwork period: 9–11 March 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 700
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 3.54%