Opinion Poll by Ninamedia for Dnevnik, Večer, 9–11 March 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 24.9% 29.9% 27.7–32.1% 27.1–32.8% 26.6–33.4% 25.6–34.5%
Socialni demokrati 9.9% 20.3% 18.4–22.3% 17.9–22.9% 17.5–23.4% 16.6–24.4%
Lista Marjana Šarca 12.6% 13.9% 12.3–15.7% 11.9–16.2% 11.5–16.6% 10.8–17.5%
Levica 9.3% 12.1% 10.7–13.9% 10.3–14.4% 9.9–14.8% 9.3–15.6%
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7.2% 6.6% 5.5–7.9% 5.2–8.3% 5.0–8.7% 4.5–9.4%
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5.1% 6.0% 5.0–7.3% 4.7–7.7% 4.5–8.0% 4.0–8.7%
Slovenska ljudska stranka 2.6% 3.0% 2.3–4.0% 2.1–4.3% 2.0–4.6% 1.7–5.1%
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4.2% 2.7% 2.1–3.7% 1.9–4.0% 1.7–4.2% 1.5–4.7%
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 4.9% 1.7% 1.2–2.5% 1.1–2.8% 1.0–3.0% 0.8–3.4%
Stranka modernega centra 9.7% 1.4% 1.0–2.2% 0.9–2.4% 0.8–2.6% 0.6–3.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 25 30 27–33 27–33 27–34 26–34
Socialni demokrati 10 20 18–22 17–23 17–23 16–24
Lista Marjana Šarca 13 13 12–15 12–16 11–16 10–17
Levica 9 12 10–14 10–15 9–15 9–16
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7 6 5–8 5–8 4–8 4–9
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5 6 5–7 4–7 4–7 4–8
Slovenska ljudska stranka 0 0 0 0 0–4 0–4
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4 0 0 0 0–4 0–4
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 5 0 0 0 0 0
Stranka modernega centra 10 0 0 0 0 0

Slovenska demokratska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.3% 99.9% Last Result
26 1.1% 99.6%  
27 14% 98%  
28 11% 85%  
29 16% 74%  
30 19% 58% Median
31 21% 39%  
32 7% 18%  
33 8% 11%  
34 2% 3%  
35 0.3% 0.4%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100% Last Result
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.1% 100%  
16 0.6% 99.9%  
17 5% 99.4%  
18 11% 95%  
19 20% 84%  
20 18% 63% Median
21 9% 45%  
22 28% 36%  
23 5% 7%  
24 2% 2%  
25 0.4% 0.5%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.5% 100%  
11 4% 99.4%  
12 21% 96%  
13 33% 75% Last Result, Median
14 23% 42%  
15 13% 19%  
16 4% 6%  
17 0.9% 1.2%  
18 0.3% 0.3%  
19 0% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Levica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.2% 100%  
9 3% 99.8% Last Result
10 10% 97%  
11 24% 87%  
12 29% 63% Median
13 23% 34%  
14 4% 11%  
15 6% 7%  
16 0.7% 0.7%  
17 0% 0%  

Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 3% 100%  
5 17% 97%  
6 37% 80% Median
7 29% 43% Last Result
8 13% 14%  
9 1.2% 1.5%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Stranka Alenke Bratušek

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 0% 99.8%  
2 0% 99.8%  
3 0% 99.8%  
4 9% 99.8%  
5 24% 91% Last Result
6 51% 67% Median
7 13% 15%  
8 2% 2%  
9 0.3% 0.3%  
10 0% 0%  

Slovenska ljudska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska ljudska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 95% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 5%  
2 0% 5%  
3 0.3% 5%  
4 4% 4%  
5 0.3% 0.3%  
6 0% 0%  

Slovenska nacionalna stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Median
1 0% 3%  
2 0% 3%  
3 0.2% 3%  
4 3% 3% Last Result
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0% Last Result

Stranka modernega centra

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka modernega centra page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 50 46 58% 43–48 42–49 42–49 41–51
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 43 43 16% 40–46 40–47 40–47 39–48
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca 38 43 16% 40–46 40–47 40–47 39–48
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 35 40 0.1% 38–43 37–43 36–44 35–45
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 45 40 0.1% 38–43 37–43 36–44 35–45
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 30 40 0.1% 38–43 37–43 36–44 35–45
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 40 40 0.1% 38–43 37–43 36–44 35–45
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 43 40 0% 37–42 36–42 35–43 34–44
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 28 34 0% 31–36 31–37 30–37 29–38
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 38 34 0% 31–36 31–37 30–37 29–38
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca 23 34 0% 31–36 31–37 30–37 29–38
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra 33 34 0% 31–36 31–37 30–37 29–38
Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 25 20 0% 18–22 17–23 17–23 16–25

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.2% 100%  
40 0.3% 99.8%  
41 1.4% 99.5%  
42 4% 98%  
43 7% 94%  
44 15% 87%  
45 14% 72% Median
46 21% 58% Majority
47 12% 37%  
48 19% 25%  
49 4% 7%  
50 2% 2% Last Result
51 0.5% 0.6%  
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.3% 99.8%  
39 2% 99.6%  
40 13% 98%  
41 6% 85%  
42 8% 79%  
43 32% 71% Last Result, Median
44 11% 39%  
45 12% 28%  
46 10% 16% Majority
47 3% 5%  
48 2% 2%  
49 0.1% 0.2%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.3% 99.8% Last Result
39 2% 99.6%  
40 13% 98%  
41 6% 85%  
42 8% 79%  
43 32% 71% Median
44 11% 39%  
45 12% 28%  
46 10% 16% Majority
47 3% 5%  
48 2% 2%  
49 0.1% 0.2%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.3% 100%  
35 0.6% 99.7% Last Result
36 2% 99.1%  
37 7% 97%  
38 8% 90%  
39 21% 82% Median
40 24% 61%  
41 14% 37%  
42 12% 23%  
43 8% 11%  
44 2% 3%  
45 0.8% 1.0%  
46 0.1% 0.1% Majority
47 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.3% 100%  
35 0.6% 99.7%  
36 2% 99.1%  
37 7% 97%  
38 8% 90%  
39 21% 82% Median
40 24% 61%  
41 14% 37%  
42 12% 23%  
43 8% 11%  
44 2% 3%  
45 0.8% 1.0% Last Result
46 0.1% 0.1% Majority
47 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100% Last Result
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0.3% 100%  
35 0.6% 99.7%  
36 2% 99.1%  
37 7% 97%  
38 8% 90%  
39 21% 82% Median
40 24% 61%  
41 14% 37%  
42 12% 23%  
43 8% 11%  
44 2% 3%  
45 0.8% 0.9%  
46 0.1% 0.1% Majority
47 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.3% 100%  
35 0.6% 99.7%  
36 2% 99.1%  
37 7% 97%  
38 8% 90%  
39 21% 82% Median
40 24% 61% Last Result
41 14% 37%  
42 12% 23%  
43 8% 11%  
44 2% 3%  
45 0.8% 0.9%  
46 0.1% 0.1% Majority
47 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.6% 99.9%  
35 2% 99.3%  
36 4% 97%  
37 9% 93%  
38 19% 84%  
39 15% 66% Median
40 19% 50%  
41 16% 32%  
42 11% 16%  
43 4% 5% Last Result
44 0.6% 1.0%  
45 0.3% 0.3%  
46 0% 0% Majority

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.2% 100% Last Result
29 0.7% 99.7%  
30 3% 99.0%  
31 8% 96%  
32 13% 89%  
33 22% 76% Median
34 25% 54%  
35 13% 29%  
36 7% 16%  
37 7% 9%  
38 1.3% 2%  
39 0.3% 0.4%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.2% 100%  
29 0.7% 99.7%  
30 3% 99.0%  
31 8% 96%  
32 13% 89%  
33 22% 76% Median
34 25% 54%  
35 13% 29%  
36 7% 16%  
37 7% 9%  
38 1.3% 2% Last Result
39 0.3% 0.4%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0.2% 100%  
29 0.7% 99.7%  
30 3% 99.0%  
31 8% 96%  
32 13% 89%  
33 22% 76% Median
34 25% 54%  
35 13% 29%  
36 7% 16%  
37 7% 9%  
38 1.3% 2%  
39 0.3% 0.4%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.2% 100%  
29 0.7% 99.7%  
30 3% 99.0%  
31 8% 96%  
32 13% 89%  
33 22% 76% Last Result, Median
34 25% 54%  
35 13% 29%  
36 7% 16%  
37 7% 9%  
38 1.3% 2%  
39 0.3% 0.4%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 0.6% 99.9%  
17 5% 99.4%  
18 11% 95%  
19 20% 84%  
20 18% 63% Median
21 9% 45%  
22 28% 36%  
23 5% 7%  
24 2% 2%  
25 0.4% 0.5% Last Result
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations