Opinion Poll by Mediana for Delo, 8–12 March 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 24.9% 25.7% 23.7–28.0% 23.1–28.6% 22.6–29.1% 21.7–30.2%
Socialni demokrati 9.9% 16.4% 14.7–18.3% 14.2–18.8% 13.8–19.3% 13.0–20.2%
Levica 9.3% 14.1% 12.5–15.9% 12.1–16.4% 11.7–16.9% 11.0–17.8%
Lista Marjana Šarca 12.6% 13.8% 12.3–15.6% 11.8–16.1% 11.4–16.6% 10.7–17.5%
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7.2% 7.3% 6.1–8.7% 5.8–9.1% 5.6–9.4% 5.1–10.1%
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5.1% 3.6% 2.8–4.6% 2.6–4.9% 2.4–5.2% 2.1–5.8%
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 4.9% 3.6% 2.8–4.6% 2.6–4.9% 2.4–5.2% 2.1–5.8%
Slovenska ljudska stranka 2.6% 3.6% 2.8–4.6% 2.6–4.9% 2.4–5.2% 2.1–5.8%
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4.2% 3.3% 2.6–4.3% 2.3–4.6% 2.2–4.9% 1.9–5.4%
Andrej Čuš in Zeleni Slovenije 1.1% 3.0% 2.3–4.0% 2.1–4.3% 2.0–4.5% 1.7–5.1%
Piratska stranka Slovenije 2.2% 1.8% 1.3–2.7% 1.2–2.9% 1.1–3.1% 0.9–3.6%
Dobra država 1.5% 1.8% 1.3–2.7% 1.2–2.9% 1.1–3.1% 0.9–3.6%
Stranka modernega centra 9.7% 1.3% 0.9–2.0% 0.8–2.2% 0.7–2.4% 0.5–2.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 25 27 26–29 26–30 25–32 24–32
Socialni demokrati 10 18 15–18 14–20 14–22 14–22
Levica 9 18 14–18 13–18 12–18 12–18
Lista Marjana Šarca 13 16 14–16 13–17 13–17 11–18
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7 9 6–9 6–9 6–9 6–11
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5 0 0–4 0–4 0–5 0–6
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 5 0 0–4 0–4 0–5 0–6
Slovenska ljudska stranka 0 0 0–4 0–4 0–5 0–5
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4 0 0 0–4 0–5 0–5
Andrej Čuš in Zeleni Slovenije 0 0 0 0–5 0–5 0–5
Piratska stranka Slovenije 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dobra država 0 0 0 0 0 0
Stranka modernega centra 10 0 0 0 0 0

Slovenska demokratska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.1% 99.9%  
23 0.3% 99.8%  
24 2% 99.5%  
25 2% 98% Last Result
26 11% 95%  
27 68% 84% Median
28 3% 16%  
29 7% 14%  
30 2% 6%  
31 1.3% 5%  
32 3% 3%  
33 0.4% 0.4%  
34 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100% Last Result
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0.1% 100%  
14 6% 99.9%  
15 6% 93%  
16 7% 88%  
17 6% 81%  
18 66% 74% Median
19 2% 8%  
20 2% 6%  
21 0.3% 3%  
22 3% 3%  
23 0% 0%  

Levica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 0% 100%  
11 0.2% 100%  
12 3% 99.8%  
13 3% 96%  
14 11% 93%  
15 5% 82%  
16 9% 77%  
17 7% 68%  
18 62% 62% Median
19 0.2% 0.3%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 1.3% 100%  
12 1.1% 98.7%  
13 5% 98% Last Result
14 13% 93%  
15 10% 80%  
16 64% 70% Median
17 5% 6%  
18 0.6% 0.7%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.4% 100%  
6 10% 99.6%  
7 13% 90% Last Result
8 6% 77%  
9 69% 71% Median
10 1.1% 2%  
11 0.7% 0.7%  
12 0% 0%  

Stranka Alenke Bratušek

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 83% 100% Median
1 0% 17%  
2 0% 17%  
3 0% 17%  
4 14% 17%  
5 2% 3% Last Result
6 0.5% 0.5%  
7 0% 0%  

Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 87% 100% Median
1 0% 13%  
2 0% 13%  
3 0% 13%  
4 8% 13%  
5 3% 5% Last Result
6 2% 2%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Slovenska ljudska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska ljudska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 87% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 13%  
2 0% 13%  
3 0% 13%  
4 9% 13%  
5 4% 4%  
6 0.2% 0.3%  
7 0% 0%  

Slovenska nacionalna stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 92% 100% Median
1 0% 8%  
2 0% 8%  
3 0% 8%  
4 4% 8% Last Result
5 5% 5%  
6 0% 0%  

Andrej Čuš in Zeleni Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Andrej Čuš in Zeleni Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 93% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 7%  
2 0% 7%  
3 0% 7%  
4 2% 7%  
5 5% 5%  
6 0% 0%  

Piratska stranka Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratska stranka Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Dobra država

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Dobra država page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Stranka modernega centra

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka modernega centra page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 43 43 8% 43–45 40–46 39–47 37–49
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra 50 43 3% 40–44 38–45 38–46 37–47
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca 38 43 2% 41–44 40–45 38–45 37–47
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 35 43 2% 39–43 38–44 37–45 35–46
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 45 43 2% 39–43 38–44 37–45 35–46
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 30 43 0.2% 38–43 36–43 36–43 34–43
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 40 43 0.2% 38–43 36–43 36–43 34–43
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 28 34 0% 31–35 29–36 29–38 28–38
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra 43 34 0% 33–37 30–37 29–38 29–39
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 38 34 0% 31–35 29–36 29–38 28–38
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca 23 34 0% 29–34 29–34 29–36 27–36
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra 33 34 0% 29–34 29–34 29–36 27–36
Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 25 18 0% 16–20 15–22 15–24 14–24

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0% 99.9%  
37 0.5% 99.9%  
38 2% 99.5%  
39 2% 98%  
40 1.5% 96%  
41 3% 95%  
42 2% 92%  
43 69% 90% Last Result, Median
44 4% 21%  
45 9% 17%  
46 3% 8% Majority
47 3% 5%  
48 0.6% 2%  
49 0.5% 1.0%  
50 0.1% 0.5%  
51 0% 0.4%  
52 0.3% 0.3%  
53 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.1% 99.9%  
37 0.8% 99.8%  
38 4% 99.0%  
39 4% 95%  
40 1.1% 91%  
41 2% 90%  
42 7% 88%  
43 63% 80% Median
44 10% 18%  
45 4% 7%  
46 2% 3% Majority
47 0.8% 1.0%  
48 0.1% 0.2%  
49 0.1% 0.2%  
50 0% 0.1% Last Result
51 0% 0%  

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.1% 99.9%  
37 0.6% 99.8%  
38 2% 99.2% Last Result
39 2% 97%  
40 3% 95%  
41 8% 92%  
42 5% 84%  
43 69% 79% Median
44 4% 10%  
45 4% 6%  
46 0.9% 2% Majority
47 1.3% 2%  
48 0.2% 0.4%  
49 0.1% 0.2%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0% 99.9%  
35 1.3% 99.9% Last Result
36 0.2% 98.5%  
37 2% 98%  
38 5% 97%  
39 4% 92%  
40 10% 87%  
41 4% 77%  
42 6% 73%  
43 62% 67% Median
44 1.4% 5%  
45 2% 4%  
46 2% 2% Majority
47 0.2% 0.3%  
48 0% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0% 99.9%  
35 1.3% 99.9%  
36 0.2% 98.5%  
37 2% 98%  
38 5% 97%  
39 4% 92%  
40 10% 87%  
41 4% 77%  
42 6% 73%  
43 62% 67% Median
44 1.4% 5%  
45 2% 4% Last Result
46 2% 2% Majority
47 0.2% 0.3%  
48 0% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100% Last Result
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0.1% 99.9%  
34 0.4% 99.8%  
35 2% 99.4%  
36 6% 98%  
37 2% 92%  
38 6% 90%  
39 6% 84%  
40 8% 78%  
41 4% 71%  
42 4% 67%  
43 62% 62% Median
44 0.1% 0.5%  
45 0.1% 0.3%  
46 0% 0.2% Majority
47 0.2% 0.2%  
48 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0% 100%  
33 0.1% 99.9%  
34 0.4% 99.8%  
35 2% 99.4%  
36 6% 98%  
37 2% 92%  
38 6% 90%  
39 6% 84%  
40 8% 78% Last Result
41 4% 71%  
42 4% 67%  
43 62% 62% Median
44 0.1% 0.5%  
45 0.1% 0.3%  
46 0% 0.2% Majority
47 0.2% 0.2%  
48 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.5% 99.8% Last Result
29 6% 99.3%  
30 3% 94%  
31 3% 91%  
32 2% 88%  
33 12% 86%  
34 63% 74% Median
35 1.3% 11%  
36 5% 10%  
37 1.0% 5%  
38 4% 4%  
39 0.1% 0.2%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 4% 100%  
30 2% 96%  
31 1.4% 93%  
32 0.9% 92%  
33 2% 91%  
34 64% 89% Median
35 3% 26%  
36 7% 23%  
37 11% 16%  
38 4% 5%  
39 0.6% 1.1%  
40 0.3% 0.4%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0% Last Result

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.5% 99.8%  
29 6% 99.3%  
30 3% 94%  
31 3% 91%  
32 2% 88%  
33 12% 86%  
34 63% 74% Median
35 1.3% 11%  
36 5% 10%  
37 1.0% 5%  
38 4% 4% Last Result
39 0.1% 0.2%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.5% 99.9%  
28 0.6% 99.3%  
29 11% 98.8%  
30 3% 88%  
31 4% 85%  
32 5% 81%  
33 9% 75%  
34 62% 67% Median
35 0.6% 4%  
36 3% 4%  
37 0.2% 0.4%  
38 0.2% 0.2%  
39 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.5% 99.9%  
28 0.6% 99.3%  
29 11% 98.8%  
30 3% 88%  
31 4% 85%  
32 5% 81%  
33 9% 75% Last Result
34 62% 67% Median
35 0.6% 4%  
36 3% 4%  
37 0.2% 0.4%  
38 0.2% 0.2%  
39 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 0.9% 99.9%  
15 5% 99.0%  
16 5% 94%  
17 5% 89%  
18 70% 84% Median
19 2% 15%  
20 4% 13%  
21 2% 9%  
22 4% 7%  
23 0.2% 3%  
24 2% 3%  
25 0.1% 0.3% Last Result
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations