Opinion Poll by Mediana for POP TV, 1–28 March 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 24.9% 27.2% 25.1–29.4% 24.6–30.1% 24.1–30.6% 23.1–31.7%
Socialni demokrati 9.9% 15.8% 14.2–17.7% 13.7–18.3% 13.4–18.7% 12.6–19.6%
Lista Marjana Šarca 12.6% 14.0% 12.5–15.8% 12.0–16.3% 11.7–16.8% 11.0–17.7%
Levica 9.3% 12.1% 10.6–13.8% 10.2–14.2% 9.9–14.7% 9.2–15.5%
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7.2% 6.7% 5.7–8.1% 5.4–8.5% 5.1–8.8% 4.6–9.5%
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5.1% 5.8% 4.8–7.0% 4.5–7.4% 4.3–7.7% 3.8–8.4%
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4.2% 3.4% 2.6–4.4% 2.4–4.7% 2.3–5.0% 2.0–5.5%
Andrej Čuš in Zeleni Slovenije 1.1% 2.8% 2.1–3.8% 2.0–4.1% 1.8–4.3% 1.6–4.8%
Dobra država 1.5% 2.7% 2.0–3.6% 1.9–3.9% 1.7–4.1% 1.4–4.6%
Slovenska ljudska stranka 2.6% 2.2% 1.7–3.1% 1.5–3.4% 1.4–3.6% 1.2–4.1%
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 4.9% 2.0% 1.4–2.8% 1.3–3.0% 1.2–3.3% 1.0–3.7%
Piratska stranka Slovenije 2.2% 1.3% 0.9–2.0% 0.7–2.2% 0.7–2.4% 0.5–2.8%
Stranka modernega centra 9.7% 1.0% 0.6–1.6% 0.5–1.8% 0.5–2.0% 0.4–2.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 25 29 27–32 26–32 26–33 24–36
Socialni demokrati 10 17 15–19 14–20 13–20 12–21
Lista Marjana Šarca 13 15 13–16 13–17 13–17 12–18
Levica 9 14 11–15 11–15 10–16 9–18
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7 6 5–8 5–9 5–9 5–10
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5 6 5–7 5–8 4–8 4–8
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4 0 0 0–4 0–5 0–6
Andrej Čuš in Zeleni Slovenije 0 0 0 0 0 0–4
Dobra država 0 0 0 0 0–4 0–4
Slovenska ljudska stranka 0 0 0 0 0–4 0–4
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 5 0 0 0 0 0
Piratska stranka Slovenije 0 0 0 0 0 0
Stranka modernega centra 10 0 0 0 0 0

Slovenska demokratska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.2% 99.9%  
24 0.3% 99.7%  
25 2% 99.4% Last Result
26 3% 98%  
27 13% 94%  
28 22% 81%  
29 11% 59% Median
30 3% 48%  
31 11% 46%  
32 31% 35%  
33 3% 4%  
34 0.4% 0.9%  
35 0% 0.6%  
36 0.6% 0.6%  
37 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100% Last Result
11 0% 100%  
12 0.8% 100%  
13 3% 99.2%  
14 2% 97%  
15 8% 95%  
16 36% 87%  
17 25% 51% Median
18 13% 26%  
19 4% 12%  
20 7% 8%  
21 0.5% 0.8%  
22 0.1% 0.4%  
23 0.3% 0.3%  
24 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.3% 100%  
12 2% 99.6%  
13 16% 98% Last Result
14 21% 81%  
15 47% 60% Median
16 7% 13%  
17 4% 6%  
18 1.5% 2%  
19 0.4% 0.5%  
20 0% 0%  

Levica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100%  
9 0.6% 99.9% Last Result
10 4% 99.3%  
11 12% 96%  
12 17% 83%  
13 10% 66%  
14 35% 56% Median
15 18% 21%  
16 2% 3%  
17 0.1% 0.9%  
18 0.8% 0.8%  
19 0% 0%  

Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.2% 100%  
5 32% 99.8%  
6 23% 67% Median
7 30% 45% Last Result
8 7% 15%  
9 6% 8%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Stranka Alenke Bratušek

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.4% 100%  
1 0% 99.6%  
2 0% 99.6%  
3 0% 99.6%  
4 4% 99.6%  
5 14% 95% Last Result
6 41% 82% Median
7 31% 40%  
8 9% 9%  
9 0.3% 0.3%  
10 0% 0%  

Slovenska nacionalna stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 92% 100% Median
1 0% 8%  
2 0% 8%  
3 0% 8%  
4 6% 8% Last Result
5 2% 3%  
6 0.8% 0.8%  
7 0% 0%  

Andrej Čuš in Zeleni Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Andrej Čuš in Zeleni Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 2%  
2 0% 2%  
3 0% 2%  
4 1.3% 2%  
5 0.5% 0.5%  
6 0% 0%  

Dobra država

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Dobra država page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 3%  
2 0% 3%  
3 0% 3%  
4 2% 3%  
5 0.2% 0.4%  
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0%  

Slovenska ljudska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska ljudska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 3%  
2 0% 3%  
3 0% 3%  
4 3% 3%  
5 0% 0%  

Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0% Last Result

Piratska stranka Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratska stranka Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Stranka modernega centra

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka modernega centra page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 50 44 25% 42–47 41–48 40–49 39–50
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 43 44 47% 41–47 40–47 39–48 38–50
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca 38 44 47% 41–47 40–47 39–48 38–50
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 35 38 0% 36–40 35–42 35–42 34–44
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 45 38 0% 36–40 35–42 35–42 34–44
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 30 38 0% 36–40 35–42 35–42 34–44
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 40 38 0% 36–40 35–42 35–42 34–44
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 43 37 0% 35–41 34–41 33–41 32–43
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 28 31 0% 30–33 28–34 28–35 27–36
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 38 31 0% 30–33 28–34 28–35 27–36
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca 23 31 0% 30–33 28–34 28–35 27–36
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra 33 31 0% 30–33 28–34 28–35 27–36
Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 25 17 0% 15–19 14–20 13–20 12–21

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.2% 99.9%  
39 1.0% 99.7%  
40 2% 98.7%  
41 3% 96%  
42 32% 93%  
43 9% 61%  
44 8% 52% Median
45 18% 44%  
46 8% 25% Majority
47 9% 17%  
48 3% 8%  
49 4% 4%  
50 0.4% 0.7% Last Result
51 0.2% 0.2%  
52 0% 0%  

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.1% 99.9%  
38 0.3% 99.7%  
39 3% 99.4%  
40 4% 97%  
41 6% 93%  
42 27% 87%  
43 7% 60% Last Result
44 4% 53% Median
45 2% 49%  
46 11% 47% Majority
47 32% 36%  
48 3% 4%  
49 0.3% 1.0%  
50 0.7% 0.8%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.1% 99.9%  
38 0.3% 99.7% Last Result
39 3% 99.4%  
40 4% 97%  
41 6% 93%  
42 27% 87%  
43 7% 60%  
44 4% 53% Median
45 2% 49%  
46 11% 47% Majority
47 32% 36%  
48 3% 4%  
49 0.3% 1.0%  
50 0.7% 0.8%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.3% 99.8%  
34 0.6% 99.6%  
35 5% 98.9% Last Result
36 32% 94%  
37 5% 61%  
38 23% 57% Median
39 20% 34%  
40 6% 14%  
41 1.3% 8%  
42 4% 6%  
43 1.3% 2%  
44 0.4% 0.7%  
45 0.2% 0.3%  
46 0% 0% Majority

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.3% 99.8%  
34 0.6% 99.6%  
35 5% 98.9%  
36 32% 94%  
37 5% 61%  
38 23% 57% Median
39 20% 34%  
40 6% 14%  
41 1.3% 8%  
42 4% 6%  
43 1.3% 2%  
44 0.4% 0.7%  
45 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
46 0% 0% Majority

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100% Last Result
31 0% 100%  
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.3% 99.8%  
34 0.6% 99.6%  
35 5% 98.9%  
36 32% 94%  
37 5% 61%  
38 23% 57% Median
39 20% 34%  
40 6% 13%  
41 1.3% 8%  
42 4% 6%  
43 1.3% 2%  
44 0.4% 0.7%  
45 0.2% 0.3%  
46 0% 0% Majority

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.3% 99.8%  
34 0.6% 99.6%  
35 5% 98.9%  
36 32% 94%  
37 5% 61%  
38 23% 57% Median
39 20% 34%  
40 6% 13% Last Result
41 1.3% 8%  
42 4% 6%  
43 1.3% 2%  
44 0.4% 0.7%  
45 0.2% 0.3%  
46 0% 0% Majority

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0% 99.9%  
32 0.8% 99.9%  
33 3% 99.1%  
34 4% 96%  
35 3% 92%  
36 8% 89%  
37 36% 80%  
38 19% 44% Median
39 2% 25%  
40 12% 23%  
41 10% 11%  
42 1.0% 2%  
43 0.5% 0.6% Last Result
44 0% 0.1%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0% Majority

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.2% 99.9%  
27 0.7% 99.7%  
28 6% 99.0% Last Result
29 2% 93%  
30 6% 91%  
31 56% 85%  
32 3% 30% Median
33 21% 27%  
34 2% 6%  
35 3% 4%  
36 0.7% 1.0%  
37 0.3% 0.4%  
38 0% 0.1%  
39 0% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.2% 99.9%  
27 0.7% 99.7%  
28 6% 99.0%  
29 2% 93%  
30 6% 91%  
31 56% 85%  
32 3% 30% Median
33 21% 27%  
34 2% 6%  
35 3% 4%  
36 0.7% 1.0%  
37 0.3% 0.4%  
38 0% 0.1% Last Result
39 0% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.2% 99.9%  
27 0.7% 99.7%  
28 6% 99.0%  
29 2% 93%  
30 6% 91%  
31 56% 85%  
32 3% 30% Median
33 21% 27%  
34 2% 6%  
35 3% 4%  
36 0.7% 1.0%  
37 0.3% 0.4%  
38 0% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.2% 99.9%  
27 0.7% 99.7%  
28 6% 99.0%  
29 2% 93%  
30 6% 91%  
31 56% 85%  
32 3% 30% Median
33 21% 27% Last Result
34 2% 6%  
35 3% 4%  
36 0.7% 1.0%  
37 0.3% 0.4%  
38 0% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.8% 100%  
13 3% 99.2%  
14 2% 97%  
15 8% 95%  
16 36% 87%  
17 25% 51% Median
18 13% 26%  
19 4% 13%  
20 7% 8%  
21 0.5% 0.8%  
22 0.1% 0.4%  
23 0.3% 0.3%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations