Opinion Poll by Parsifal for Nova 24TV, 12–14 April 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 24.9% 31.2% 29.1–33.5% 28.5–34.1% 28.0–34.6% 27.1–35.7%
Socialni demokrati 9.9% 17.7% 16.0–19.6% 15.6–20.1% 15.2–20.6% 14.4–21.5%
Lista Marjana Šarca 12.6% 16.9% 15.3–18.8% 14.8–19.3% 14.4–19.8% 13.7–20.7%
Levica 9.3% 10.0% 8.7–11.5% 8.3–11.9% 8.0–12.3% 7.5–13.1%
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7.2% 6.4% 5.4–7.7% 5.1–8.1% 4.9–8.4% 4.5–9.1%
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5.1% 4.1% 3.3–5.2% 3.1–5.5% 2.9–5.7% 2.5–6.3%
Slovenska ljudska stranka 2.6% 4.1% 3.3–5.2% 3.1–5.5% 2.9–5.7% 2.5–6.3%
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4.2% 3.5% 2.8–4.6% 2.6–4.8% 2.4–5.1% 2.1–5.6%
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 4.9% 2.5% 1.9–3.4% 1.7–3.6% 1.6–3.9% 1.4–4.3%
Piratska stranka Slovenije 2.2% 1.3% 0.9–2.0% 0.8–2.2% 0.7–2.4% 0.6–2.8%
Stranka modernega centra 9.7% 1.0% 0.7–1.7% 0.6–1.9% 0.5–2.1% 0.4–2.4%
Dobra država 1.5% 0.3% 0.1–0.7% 0.1–0.8% 0.1–0.9% 0.0–1.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 25 31 29–33 28–34 28–34 26–36
Socialni demokrati 10 17 16–20 15–21 14–21 14–22
Lista Marjana Šarca 13 17 15–20 15–20 14–20 13–22
Levica 9 10 8–12 8–12 7–13 6–14
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7 6 5–7 5–8 4–9 4–9
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5 4 0–4 0–5 0–6 0–6
Slovenska ljudska stranka 0 4 0–5 0–5 0–5 0–6
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4 0 0–4 0–4 0–5 0–5
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 5 0 0 0 0 0–4
Piratska stranka Slovenije 0 0 0 0 0 0
Stranka modernega centra 10 0 0 0 0 0
Dobra država 0 0 0 0 0 0

Slovenska demokratska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.2% 100% Last Result
26 0.3% 99.8%  
27 1.3% 99.5%  
28 4% 98%  
29 6% 94%  
30 15% 88%  
31 23% 73% Median
32 11% 50%  
33 31% 38%  
34 5% 7%  
35 1.1% 2%  
36 0.7% 0.9%  
37 0% 0.2%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100% Last Result
11 0% 100%  
12 0.1% 100%  
13 0% 99.9%  
14 4% 99.8%  
15 3% 96%  
16 9% 93%  
17 37% 84% Median
18 11% 47%  
19 24% 36%  
20 6% 12%  
21 3% 6%  
22 2% 2%  
23 0.2% 0.2%  
24 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 0.9% 99.9% Last Result
14 2% 99.0%  
15 30% 97%  
16 17% 67%  
17 11% 51% Median
18 13% 39%  
19 3% 26%  
20 22% 23%  
21 0.5% 1.4%  
22 0.8% 0.9%  
23 0% 0%  

Levica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.8% 100%  
7 2% 99.2%  
8 31% 97%  
9 12% 67% Last Result
10 22% 54% Median
11 9% 32%  
12 20% 23%  
13 2% 3%  
14 2% 2%  
15 0% 0%  

Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 4% 100%  
5 14% 96%  
6 58% 83% Median
7 17% 25% Last Result
8 5% 8%  
9 2% 3%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Stranka Alenke Bratušek

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 46% 100%  
1 0% 54%  
2 0% 54%  
3 0% 54%  
4 46% 54% Median
5 5% 8% Last Result
6 3% 3%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Slovenska ljudska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska ljudska stranka page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 47% 100% Last Result
1 0% 53%  
2 0% 53%  
3 0.3% 53%  
4 15% 53% Median
5 36% 37%  
6 1.2% 1.2%  
7 0% 0%  

Slovenska nacionalna stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 78% 100% Median
1 0% 22%  
2 0% 22%  
3 0% 22%  
4 18% 22% Last Result
5 4% 4%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Median
1 0% 2%  
2 0% 2%  
3 0.1% 2%  
4 2% 2%  
5 0% 0% Last Result

Piratska stranka Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratska stranka Slovenije page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Stranka modernega centra

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka modernega centra page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Dobra država

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Dobra država page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 43 49 89% 45–53 45–53 44–53 42–55
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca 38 48 87% 45–53 44–53 43–53 42–55
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 50 44 30% 40–47 40–47 39–48 37–49
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 35 40 2% 39–43 37–45 36–45 34–49
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 45 40 2% 39–43 37–45 36–45 34–49
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 30 40 2% 38–43 37–44 36–45 34–49
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 40 40 2% 38–43 37–44 36–45 34–49
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 43 37 0% 33–41 32–41 32–42 31–43
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 28 34 0% 32–37 31–39 31–39 30–40
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 38 34 0% 32–37 31–39 31–39 30–40
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca 23 34 0% 32–37 31–39 31–39 30–40
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra 33 34 0% 32–37 31–39 31–39 30–40
Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 25 17 0% 16–20 15–21 14–22 14–23

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.2% 100%  
42 0.7% 99.8%  
43 1.0% 99.1% Last Result
44 2% 98%  
45 7% 96%  
46 24% 89% Majority
47 9% 64%  
48 5% 56% Median
49 14% 50%  
50 9% 37%  
51 3% 28%  
52 3% 24%  
53 21% 22%  
54 0.3% 1.0%  
55 0.4% 0.7%  
56 0.3% 0.3%  
57 0% 0%  

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100% Last Result
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0.2% 100%  
42 0.7% 99.8%  
43 2% 99.0%  
44 3% 97%  
45 7% 94%  
46 24% 87% Majority
47 8% 63%  
48 5% 55% Median
49 14% 50%  
50 9% 36%  
51 3% 27%  
52 3% 24%  
53 21% 22%  
54 0.3% 0.8%  
55 0.4% 0.5%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.2% 99.9%  
37 1.0% 99.8%  
38 0.8% 98.8%  
39 2% 98%  
40 30% 96%  
41 5% 67%  
42 3% 61%  
43 6% 58%  
44 11% 51% Median
45 10% 40%  
46 5% 30% Majority
47 22% 25%  
48 0.7% 3%  
49 2% 2%  
50 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
51 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0% 99.9%  
34 0.4% 99.9%  
35 0.7% 99.5% Last Result
36 3% 98.8%  
37 3% 96%  
38 2% 93%  
39 4% 90%  
40 36% 86% Median
41 11% 50%  
42 6% 39%  
43 24% 32%  
44 4% 9%  
45 3% 5%  
46 0.9% 2% Majority
47 0.4% 1.3%  
48 0.1% 0.9%  
49 0.8% 0.8%  
50 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0% 99.9%  
34 0.4% 99.9%  
35 0.7% 99.5%  
36 3% 98.8%  
37 3% 96%  
38 2% 93%  
39 4% 90%  
40 36% 86% Median
41 11% 50%  
42 6% 39%  
43 24% 32%  
44 4% 9%  
45 3% 5% Last Result
46 0.9% 2% Majority
47 0.4% 1.3%  
48 0.1% 0.9%  
49 0.8% 0.8%  
50 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100% Last Result
31 0% 100%  
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0% 99.9%  
34 0.4% 99.9%  
35 0.7% 99.5%  
36 3% 98.8%  
37 3% 96%  
38 4% 92%  
39 5% 89%  
40 36% 84% Median
41 11% 48%  
42 5% 37%  
43 24% 32%  
44 3% 8%  
45 3% 5%  
46 0.9% 2% Majority
47 0.3% 1.2%  
48 0.1% 0.8%  
49 0.8% 0.8%  
50 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0% 99.9%  
34 0.4% 99.9%  
35 0.7% 99.5%  
36 3% 98.8%  
37 3% 96%  
38 4% 92%  
39 5% 89%  
40 36% 84% Last Result, Median
41 11% 48%  
42 5% 37%  
43 24% 32%  
44 3% 8%  
45 3% 5%  
46 0.9% 2% Majority
47 0.3% 1.2%  
48 0.1% 0.8%  
49 0.8% 0.8%  
50 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.2% 100%  
31 1.0% 99.8%  
32 4% 98.8%  
33 7% 95%  
34 20% 88%  
35 7% 68%  
36 5% 62%  
37 10% 57%  
38 8% 47% Median
39 5% 39%  
40 10% 34%  
41 20% 23%  
42 2% 3%  
43 2% 2% Last Result
44 0% 0.1%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0% Majority

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0% 99.9%  
28 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
29 0.1% 99.8%  
30 2% 99.7%  
31 6% 98%  
32 6% 92%  
33 11% 86%  
34 25% 75% Median
35 7% 50%  
36 12% 42%  
37 23% 30%  
38 2% 8%  
39 3% 5%  
40 2% 2%  
41 0.2% 0.2%  
42 0% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0% 99.9%  
28 0.1% 99.9%  
29 0.1% 99.8%  
30 2% 99.7%  
31 6% 98%  
32 6% 92%  
33 11% 86%  
34 25% 75% Median
35 7% 50%  
36 12% 42%  
37 23% 30%  
38 2% 8% Last Result
39 3% 5%  
40 2% 2%  
41 0.2% 0.2%  
42 0% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0% 99.9%  
28 0.1% 99.9%  
29 0.1% 99.8%  
30 2% 99.7%  
31 6% 98%  
32 8% 92%  
33 12% 85%  
34 26% 73% Median
35 7% 48%  
36 11% 40%  
37 23% 30%  
38 2% 7%  
39 3% 5%  
40 2% 2%  
41 0.2% 0.2%  
42 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0% 99.9%  
28 0.1% 99.9%  
29 0.1% 99.8%  
30 2% 99.7%  
31 6% 98%  
32 8% 92%  
33 12% 85% Last Result
34 26% 73% Median
35 7% 48%  
36 11% 40%  
37 23% 30%  
38 2% 7%  
39 3% 5%  
40 2% 2%  
41 0.2% 0.2%  
42 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 0% 99.9%  
14 4% 99.8%  
15 3% 96%  
16 9% 93%  
17 36% 84% Median
18 10% 48%  
19 24% 38%  
20 7% 14%  
21 5% 7%  
22 2% 3%  
23 0.5% 0.5%  
24 0% 0.1%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations