Opinion Poll by Ninamedia for Dnevnik, Večer, 13–15 April 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 24.9% 29.7% 27.6–32.0% 27.0–32.6% 26.4–33.2% 25.4–34.3%
Socialni demokrati 9.9% 20.6% 18.7–22.6% 18.2–23.2% 17.7–23.7% 16.9–24.8%
Lista Marjana Šarca 12.6% 15.7% 14.1–17.6% 13.6–18.1% 13.2–18.6% 12.5–19.5%
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7.2% 11.6% 10.2–13.3% 9.7–13.7% 9.4–14.2% 8.8–15.0%
Levica 9.3% 10.9% 9.5–12.5% 9.1–13.0% 8.8–13.4% 8.1–14.2%
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5.1% 5.6% 4.6–6.8% 4.3–7.2% 4.1–7.5% 3.7–8.2%
Slovenska ljudska stranka 2.6% 1.9% 1.3–2.7% 1.2–2.9% 1.1–3.2% 0.9–3.6%
Stranka modernega centra 9.7% 0.4% 0.2–1.0% 0.2–1.1% 0.2–1.2% 0.1–1.6%
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 4.9% 0.4% 0.2–1.0% 0.2–1.1% 0.2–1.2% 0.1–1.6%
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4.2% 0.3% 0.2–0.8% 0.1–0.9% 0.1–1.0% 0.0–1.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 25 29 26–30 25–30 25–31 24–32
Socialni demokrati 10 20 18–21 17–22 17–23 16–23
Lista Marjana Šarca 13 15 13–16 13–17 12–18 11–18
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7 10 9–12 9–13 9–13 8–14
Levica 9 9 9–11 8–12 8–12 7–13
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5 5 4–6 4–6 4–7 0–7
Slovenska ljudska stranka 0 0 0 0 0 0
Stranka modernega centra 10 0 0 0 0 0
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 5 0 0 0 0 0
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4 0 0 0 0 0

Slovenska demokratska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.2% 100%  
24 1.2% 99.8%  
25 7% 98.7% Last Result
26 5% 92%  
27 18% 87%  
28 11% 69%  
29 47% 58% Median
30 7% 11%  
31 3% 5%  
32 1.2% 2%  
33 0.4% 0.4%  
34 0% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100% Last Result
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.3% 100%  
16 2% 99.7%  
17 5% 98%  
18 15% 93%  
19 11% 78%  
20 52% 67% Median
21 8% 15%  
22 4% 7%  
23 3% 3%  
24 0.2% 0.2%  
25 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 1.0% 100%  
12 2% 98.9%  
13 10% 97% Last Result
14 15% 87%  
15 52% 72% Median
16 11% 20%  
17 6% 9%  
18 3% 3%  
19 0.2% 0.3%  
20 0% 0%  

Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.1% 100% Last Result
8 2% 99.9%  
9 11% 98%  
10 50% 87% Median
11 17% 37%  
12 12% 20%  
13 7% 7%  
14 0.5% 0.6%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Levica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.8% 100%  
8 6% 99.2%  
9 52% 94% Last Result, Median
10 18% 42%  
11 16% 24%  
12 7% 9%  
13 2% 2%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Stranka Alenke Bratušek

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.1% 100%  
1 0% 98.9%  
2 0% 98.9%  
3 0.9% 98.9%  
4 24% 98%  
5 57% 74% Last Result, Median
6 14% 17%  
7 3% 3%  
8 0.2% 0.3%  
9 0% 0%  

Slovenska ljudska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska ljudska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Stranka modernega centra

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka modernega centra page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0% Last Result

Slovenska nacionalna stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 50 50 98% 47–52 47–53 46–53 45–54
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 35 45 28% 43–47 42–48 41–48 39–49
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 45 45 28% 43–47 42–48 41–48 39–49
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 30 45 28% 43–47 42–48 41–48 39–49
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 40 45 28% 43–47 42–48 41–48 39–49
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 43 44 3% 41–45 40–45 39–46 38–48
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca 38 44 3% 41–45 40–45 39–46 38–48
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 43 40 0% 37–41 36–42 35–42 34–43
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 28 35 0% 32–36 31–37 30–37 29–38
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 38 35 0% 32–36 31–37 30–37 29–38
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca 23 35 0% 32–36 31–37 30–37 29–38
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra 33 35 0% 32–36 31–37 30–37 29–38
Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 25 20 0% 18–21 17–22 17–23 16–23

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.4% 99.9%  
45 1.2% 99.5%  
46 2% 98% Majority
47 7% 96%  
48 8% 90%  
49 11% 82%  
50 41% 71% Last Result, Median
51 15% 30%  
52 9% 15%  
53 5% 6%  
54 0.6% 0.8%  
55 0.2% 0.2%  
56 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100% Last Result
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.7% 99.9%  
40 0.7% 99.2%  
41 3% 98.5%  
42 5% 96%  
43 7% 90%  
44 11% 84%  
45 45% 73% Median
46 9% 28% Majority
47 12% 20%  
48 6% 8%  
49 0.9% 1.4%  
50 0.4% 0.5%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.7% 99.9%  
40 0.7% 99.2%  
41 3% 98.5%  
42 5% 96%  
43 7% 90%  
44 11% 84%  
45 45% 73% Last Result, Median
46 9% 28% Majority
47 12% 20%  
48 6% 8%  
49 0.9% 1.4%  
50 0.4% 0.5%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100% Last Result
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.7% 99.9%  
40 0.7% 99.2%  
41 3% 98.5%  
42 5% 96%  
43 7% 90%  
44 11% 84%  
45 45% 73% Median
46 9% 28% Majority
47 12% 20%  
48 6% 8%  
49 0.9% 1.4%  
50 0.4% 0.5%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.7% 99.9%  
40 0.7% 99.2% Last Result
41 3% 98.5%  
42 5% 96%  
43 7% 90%  
44 11% 84%  
45 45% 73% Median
46 9% 28% Majority
47 12% 20%  
48 6% 8%  
49 0.9% 1.4%  
50 0.4% 0.5%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.2% 100%  
38 0.5% 99.8%  
39 3% 99.3%  
40 3% 96%  
41 9% 93%  
42 18% 83%  
43 9% 65% Last Result
44 43% 56% Median
45 9% 13%  
46 2% 3% Majority
47 0.7% 1.4%  
48 0.5% 0.6%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.2% 100%  
38 0.5% 99.8% Last Result
39 3% 99.3%  
40 3% 96%  
41 9% 93%  
42 18% 83%  
43 9% 65%  
44 43% 56% Median
45 9% 13%  
46 2% 3% Majority
47 0.7% 1.4%  
48 0.5% 0.6%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.1% 99.9%  
34 0.7% 99.8%  
35 3% 99.1%  
36 4% 97%  
37 7% 92%  
38 8% 85%  
39 17% 77%  
40 43% 60% Median
41 9% 17%  
42 6% 8%  
43 2% 2% Last Result
44 0.2% 0.3%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0% Majority

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100% Last Result
29 0.9% 99.9%  
30 2% 99.1%  
31 4% 97%  
32 7% 93%  
33 6% 86%  
34 12% 80%  
35 52% 68% Median
36 7% 16%  
37 8% 9%  
38 0.6% 1.0%  
39 0.2% 0.4%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.9% 99.9%  
30 2% 99.1%  
31 4% 97%  
32 7% 93%  
33 6% 86%  
34 12% 80%  
35 52% 68% Median
36 7% 16%  
37 8% 9%  
38 0.6% 1.0% Last Result
39 0.2% 0.4%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.9% 99.9%  
30 2% 99.1%  
31 4% 97%  
32 7% 93%  
33 6% 86%  
34 12% 80%  
35 52% 68% Median
36 7% 16%  
37 8% 9%  
38 0.6% 1.0%  
39 0.2% 0.4%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.9% 99.9%  
30 2% 99.1%  
31 4% 97%  
32 7% 93%  
33 6% 86% Last Result
34 12% 80%  
35 52% 68% Median
36 7% 16%  
37 8% 9%  
38 0.6% 1.0%  
39 0.2% 0.4%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.3% 100%  
16 2% 99.7%  
17 5% 98%  
18 15% 93%  
19 11% 78%  
20 52% 67% Median
21 8% 15%  
22 4% 7%  
23 3% 3%  
24 0.2% 0.2%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations