Opinion Poll by Mediana for POP TV, 1–25 April 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 24.9% 27.0% 25.0–29.2% 24.4–29.9% 23.9–30.4% 22.9–31.5%
Socialni demokrati 9.9% 16.7% 15.0–18.6% 14.5–19.1% 14.1–19.6% 13.3–20.5%
Lista Marjana Šarca 12.6% 13.2% 11.7–14.9% 11.2–15.4% 10.9–15.9% 10.2–16.7%
Levica 9.3% 12.2% 10.7–13.9% 10.3–14.4% 10.0–14.8% 9.3–15.7%
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7.2% 7.8% 6.7–9.3% 6.4–9.7% 6.1–10.1% 5.6–10.8%
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5.1% 6.6% 5.5–7.9% 5.2–8.3% 5.0–8.7% 4.5–9.3%
Piratska stranka Slovenije 2.2% 3.5% 2.8–4.6% 2.6–4.9% 2.4–5.1% 2.1–5.7%
Andrej Čuš in Zeleni Slovenije 1.1% 3.1% 2.4–4.1% 2.2–4.4% 2.0–4.6% 1.8–5.2%
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4.2% 2.2% 1.7–3.1% 1.5–3.4% 1.4–3.6% 1.2–4.1%
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 4.9% 1.7% 1.2–2.5% 1.1–2.7% 1.0–2.9% 0.8–3.4%
Dobra država 1.5% 1.7% 1.2–2.5% 1.1–2.7% 1.0–2.9% 0.8–3.4%
Slovenska ljudska stranka 2.6% 1.3% 0.9–2.0% 0.7–2.2% 0.7–2.4% 0.5–2.8%
Stranka modernega centra 9.7% 0.8% 0.5–1.5% 0.5–1.7% 0.4–1.8% 0.3–2.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 25 29 25–30 24–30 24–31 24–34
Socialni demokrati 10 17 15–18 15–19 15–20 14–21
Lista Marjana Šarca 13 13 12–14 11–15 11–15 10–17
Levica 9 13 11–15 11–16 10–16 10–16
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7 8 7–9 7–10 6–10 5–11
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5 7 5–8 5–8 5–8 4–10
Piratska stranka Slovenije 0 0 0–4 0–5 0–5 0–5
Andrej Čuš in Zeleni Slovenije 0 0 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–5
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4 0 0 0 0 0
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 5 0 0 0 0 0
Dobra država 0 0 0 0 0 0
Slovenska ljudska stranka 0 0 0 0 0 0
Stranka modernega centra 10 0 0 0 0 0

Slovenska demokratska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.2% 99.9%  
24 8% 99.8%  
25 4% 92% Last Result
26 2% 88%  
27 13% 86%  
28 13% 72%  
29 16% 59% Median
30 39% 43%  
31 2% 5%  
32 1.0% 2%  
33 0.6% 1.4%  
34 0.7% 0.8%  
35 0.1% 0.2%  
36 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100% Last Result
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0.2% 100%  
14 0.8% 99.7%  
15 12% 99.0%  
16 15% 87%  
17 53% 71% Median
18 8% 18%  
19 5% 10%  
20 4% 5%  
21 0.6% 1.0%  
22 0.1% 0.4%  
23 0.3% 0.3%  
24 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100%  
10 2% 99.9%  
11 7% 98%  
12 26% 91%  
13 41% 65% Last Result, Median
14 17% 24%  
15 5% 7%  
16 0.8% 2%  
17 0.8% 1.0%  
18 0.1% 0.2%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Levica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.4% 100% Last Result
10 3% 99.6%  
11 9% 97%  
12 24% 88%  
13 38% 64% Median
14 10% 27%  
15 8% 17%  
16 8% 8%  
17 0.2% 0.2%  
18 0% 0%  

Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.8% 100%  
6 3% 99.1%  
7 16% 96% Last Result
8 49% 80% Median
9 26% 31%  
10 4% 5%  
11 0.5% 0.8%  
12 0.3% 0.3%  
13 0% 0%  

Stranka Alenke Bratušek

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.6% 100%  
5 24% 99.3% Last Result
6 6% 75%  
7 42% 69% Median
8 25% 27%  
9 0.9% 1.4%  
10 0.5% 0.5%  
11 0% 0%  

Piratska stranka Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratska stranka Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 68% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 32%  
2 0% 32%  
3 0% 32%  
4 26% 32%  
5 6% 6%  
6 0.3% 0.3%  
7 0% 0%  

Andrej Čuš in Zeleni Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Andrej Čuš in Zeleni Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 88% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 12%  
2 0% 12%  
3 0% 12%  
4 11% 12%  
5 0.8% 0.8%  
6 0% 0%  

Slovenska nacionalna stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.7% 100% Median
1 0% 0.3%  
2 0% 0.3%  
3 0% 0.3%  
4 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
5 0% 0%  

Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0% Last Result

Dobra država

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Dobra država page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Slovenska ljudska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska ljudska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Stranka modernega centra

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka modernega centra page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 50 45 30% 42–46 42–48 41–48 39–51
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 43 42 0.5% 37–43 37–44 36–45 35–46
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca 38 42 0.5% 37–43 37–44 36–45 35–46
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 35 38 0.2% 37–40 36–41 35–42 33–45
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 45 38 0.2% 37–40 36–41 35–42 33–45
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 30 38 0.2% 37–40 36–41 35–42 33–45
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 40 38 0.2% 37–40 36–41 35–42 33–45
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 43 36 0% 34–38 34–40 33–40 31–43
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 28 30 0% 29–31 28–33 26–34 26–36
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 38 30 0% 29–31 28–33 26–34 26–36
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca 23 30 0% 29–31 28–33 26–34 26–36
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra 33 30 0% 29–31 28–33 26–34 26–36
Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 25 17 0% 15–18 15–19 15–20 14–21

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100%  
39 0.5% 99.9%  
40 0.5% 99.4%  
41 2% 98.9%  
42 14% 97%  
43 9% 82%  
44 10% 73%  
45 33% 63% Median
46 20% 30% Majority
47 5% 10%  
48 3% 5%  
49 0.8% 2%  
50 0.6% 1.3% Last Result
51 0.4% 0.7%  
52 0.3% 0.3%  
53 0% 0%  

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.8% 100%  
36 2% 99.2%  
37 7% 97%  
38 3% 90%  
39 4% 87%  
40 5% 83%  
41 10% 78%  
42 44% 68% Median
43 18% 24% Last Result
44 3% 6%  
45 3% 3%  
46 0.3% 0.5% Majority
47 0.1% 0.2%  
48 0% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.8% 100%  
36 2% 99.2%  
37 7% 97%  
38 3% 90% Last Result
39 4% 87%  
40 5% 83%  
41 10% 78%  
42 44% 68% Median
43 18% 24%  
44 3% 6%  
45 3% 3%  
46 0.3% 0.5% Majority
47 0.1% 0.2%  
48 0% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.2% 100%  
33 0.7% 99.8%  
34 1.5% 99.0%  
35 2% 98% Last Result
36 4% 96%  
37 25% 92%  
38 52% 67% Median
39 4% 15%  
40 5% 11%  
41 2% 6%  
42 3% 4%  
43 0.5% 1.5%  
44 0.3% 1.0%  
45 0.5% 0.7%  
46 0.2% 0.2% Majority
47 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.2% 100%  
33 0.7% 99.8%  
34 1.5% 99.0%  
35 2% 98%  
36 4% 96%  
37 25% 92%  
38 52% 67% Median
39 4% 15%  
40 5% 11%  
41 2% 6%  
42 3% 4%  
43 0.5% 1.5%  
44 0.3% 1.0%  
45 0.5% 0.7% Last Result
46 0.2% 0.2% Majority
47 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100% Last Result
31 0% 100%  
32 0.2% 100%  
33 0.7% 99.8%  
34 1.5% 99.0%  
35 2% 98%  
36 4% 96%  
37 25% 92%  
38 52% 67% Median
39 4% 15%  
40 5% 11%  
41 2% 6%  
42 3% 4%  
43 0.5% 1.4%  
44 0.3% 1.0%  
45 0.4% 0.6%  
46 0.2% 0.2% Majority
47 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.2% 100%  
33 0.7% 99.8%  
34 1.5% 99.0%  
35 2% 98%  
36 4% 96%  
37 25% 92%  
38 52% 67% Median
39 4% 15%  
40 5% 11% Last Result
41 2% 6%  
42 3% 4%  
43 0.5% 1.4%  
44 0.3% 1.0%  
45 0.4% 0.6%  
46 0.2% 0.2% Majority
47 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 1.4% 100%  
32 0.4% 98.6%  
33 1.0% 98%  
34 13% 97%  
35 4% 84%  
36 36% 79%  
37 12% 43% Median
38 23% 32%  
39 3% 9%  
40 4% 6%  
41 0.9% 2%  
42 0.3% 0.9%  
43 0.2% 0.7% Last Result
44 0.4% 0.4%  
45 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.3% 100%  
26 2% 99.6%  
27 2% 97%  
28 2% 95% Last Result
29 43% 93%  
30 30% 50% Median
31 10% 20%  
32 4% 10%  
33 2% 6%  
34 2% 4%  
35 1.0% 2%  
36 0.3% 0.7%  
37 0% 0.4%  
38 0.4% 0.4%  
39 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.3% 100%  
26 2% 99.6%  
27 2% 97%  
28 2% 95%  
29 43% 93%  
30 30% 50% Median
31 10% 20%  
32 4% 10%  
33 2% 6%  
34 2% 4%  
35 1.0% 2%  
36 0.3% 0.7%  
37 0% 0.4%  
38 0.4% 0.4% Last Result
39 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0.3% 100%  
26 2% 99.6%  
27 2% 97%  
28 2% 95%  
29 43% 93%  
30 30% 50% Median
31 10% 20%  
32 4% 10%  
33 2% 5%  
34 2% 4%  
35 1.0% 2%  
36 0.3% 0.7%  
37 0% 0.4%  
38 0.4% 0.4%  
39 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.3% 100%  
26 2% 99.6%  
27 2% 97%  
28 2% 95%  
29 43% 93%  
30 30% 50% Median
31 10% 20%  
32 4% 10%  
33 2% 5% Last Result
34 2% 4%  
35 1.0% 2%  
36 0.3% 0.7%  
37 0% 0.4%  
38 0.4% 0.4%  
39 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.2% 100%  
14 0.8% 99.7%  
15 12% 99.0%  
16 15% 87%  
17 53% 71% Median
18 8% 18%  
19 5% 10%  
20 4% 5%  
21 0.6% 1.0%  
22 0.1% 0.4%  
23 0.3% 0.3%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations