Opinion Poll by Mediana for Delo, 3–6 May 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 24.9% 27.0% 24.9–29.2% 24.3–29.8% 23.8–30.3% 22.9–31.4%
Socialni demokrati 9.9% 18.7% 16.9–20.7% 16.4–21.2% 16.0–21.7% 15.2–22.7%
Levica 9.3% 11.7% 10.2–13.3% 9.8–13.8% 9.5–14.2% 8.9–15.1%
Lista Marjana Šarca 12.6% 10.7% 9.3–12.3% 8.9–12.8% 8.6–13.2% 8.0–14.0%
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7.2% 6.7% 5.7–8.1% 5.4–8.5% 5.1–8.8% 4.6–9.5%
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5.1% 5.2% 4.3–6.4% 4.0–6.8% 3.8–7.1% 3.4–7.7%
Slovenska ljudska stranka 2.6% 4.6% 3.8–5.8% 3.5–6.1% 3.3–6.4% 2.9–7.1%
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4.2% 3.1% 2.4–4.1% 2.2–4.4% 2.0–4.6% 1.8–5.2%
Dobra država 1.5% 2.2% 1.7–3.1% 1.5–3.4% 1.4–3.6% 1.2–4.1%
Piratska stranka Slovenije 2.2% 2.1% 1.6–3.0% 1.4–3.2% 1.3–3.5% 1.1–3.9%
Andrej Čuš in Zeleni Slovenije 1.1% 2.0% 1.4–2.8% 1.3–3.1% 1.2–3.3% 1.0–3.7%
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 4.9% 1.8% 1.3–2.7% 1.2–2.9% 1.1–3.1% 0.9–3.6%
Stranka modernega centra 9.7% 1.5% 1.1–2.3% 1.0–2.5% 0.9–2.7% 0.7–3.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 25 28 26–31 25–31 25–33 23–34
Socialni demokrati 10 20 17–23 17–23 16–23 15–25
Levica 9 11 10–14 9–14 9–15 9–16
Lista Marjana Šarca 13 11 10–13 9–14 9–15 8–15
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7 7 6–8 5–9 5–9 5–10
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5 5 4–6 0–7 0–8 0–8
Slovenska ljudska stranka 0 4 0–5 0–6 0–7 0–7
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4 0 0–4 0–5 0–5 0–5
Dobra država 0 0 0 0 0 0–4
Piratska stranka Slovenije 0 0 0 0 0 0
Andrej Čuš in Zeleni Slovenije 0 0 0 0 0 0
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 5 0 0 0 0 0
Stranka modernega centra 10 0 0 0 0 0

Slovenska demokratska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.4% 100%  
23 1.2% 99.6%  
24 0.5% 98%  
25 4% 98% Last Result
26 17% 94%  
27 16% 77%  
28 21% 61% Median
29 6% 40%  
30 18% 34%  
31 12% 16%  
32 1.4% 4%  
33 2% 3%  
34 0.6% 0.8%  
35 0.1% 0.2%  
36 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100% Last Result
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 2% 100%  
16 2% 98%  
17 17% 96%  
18 13% 79%  
19 12% 66%  
20 20% 54% Median
21 10% 34%  
22 8% 24%  
23 15% 16%  
24 1.0% 2%  
25 0.5% 0.7%  
26 0.2% 0.2%  
27 0% 0%  

Levica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100%  
9 6% 99.9% Last Result
10 21% 94%  
11 23% 73% Median
12 19% 50%  
13 7% 31%  
14 19% 24%  
15 4% 4%  
16 0.7% 0.8%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.2% 100%  
8 0.4% 99.8%  
9 8% 99.4%  
10 27% 92%  
11 28% 65% Median
12 20% 36%  
13 9% 16% Last Result
14 4% 7%  
15 3% 3%  
16 0% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0.3% 99.9%  
5 7% 99.6%  
6 19% 92%  
7 37% 74% Last Result, Median
8 29% 37%  
9 6% 8%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Stranka Alenke Bratušek

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 9% 100%  
1 0% 91%  
2 0% 91%  
3 0% 91%  
4 19% 91%  
5 33% 72% Last Result, Median
6 33% 38%  
7 2% 5%  
8 3% 3%  
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  

Slovenska ljudska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska ljudska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 23% 100% Last Result
1 0% 77%  
2 0% 77%  
3 0% 77%  
4 27% 77% Median
5 40% 50%  
6 7% 10%  
7 3% 3%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Slovenska nacionalna stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 73% 100% Median
1 0% 27%  
2 0% 27%  
3 0% 27%  
4 22% 27% Last Result
5 5% 5%  
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0%  

Dobra država

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Dobra država page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 2%  
2 0% 2%  
3 0% 2%  
4 1.4% 2%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Piratska stranka Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratska stranka Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.2%  
2 0% 0.2%  
3 0% 0.2%  
4 0.1% 0.2%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Andrej Čuš in Zeleni Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Andrej Čuš in Zeleni Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.6% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.4%  
2 0% 0.4%  
3 0% 0.4%  
4 0.4% 0.4%  
5 0% 0%  

Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0% Last Result

Stranka modernega centra

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka modernega centra page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 50 43 25% 39–47 38–47 38–47 36–48
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 43 40 0.2% 37–42 36–44 35–45 34–45
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca 38 40 0.2% 37–42 36–44 35–45 34–45
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 35 38 0% 35–41 34–42 34–42 32–44
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 45 38 0% 35–41 34–42 34–42 32–44
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 30 38 0% 35–41 34–42 34–42 32–44
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 40 38 0% 35–41 34–42 34–42 32–44
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 43 36 0% 32–39 31–40 30–40 30–42
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 28 31 0% 28–34 27–35 27–36 26–37
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 38 31 0% 28–34 27–35 27–36 26–37
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca 23 31 0% 28–34 27–35 27–36 26–37
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra 33 31 0% 28–34 27–35 27–36 26–37
Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 25 20 0% 17–23 17–23 16–23 15–25

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.1% 99.8%  
36 0.9% 99.8%  
37 0.6% 98.9%  
38 7% 98%  
39 11% 91%  
40 4% 80%  
41 8% 76%  
42 18% 68%  
43 9% 50% Median
44 6% 41%  
45 10% 35%  
46 7% 25% Majority
47 17% 18%  
48 0.7% 1.0%  
49 0.2% 0.4%  
50 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.2% 100%  
34 2% 99.8%  
35 1.2% 98%  
36 5% 97%  
37 11% 91%  
38 10% 80%  
39 18% 70% Median
40 28% 51%  
41 5% 23%  
42 10% 18%  
43 3% 8% Last Result
44 2% 5%  
45 3% 3%  
46 0.1% 0.2% Majority
47 0% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.2% 100%  
34 2% 99.8%  
35 1.2% 98%  
36 5% 97%  
37 11% 91%  
38 10% 80% Last Result
39 18% 70% Median
40 28% 51%  
41 5% 23%  
42 10% 18%  
43 3% 8%  
44 2% 5%  
45 3% 3%  
46 0.1% 0.2% Majority
47 0% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 1.2% 99.8%  
33 0.9% 98.6%  
34 8% 98%  
35 8% 90% Last Result
36 15% 82%  
37 11% 67%  
38 15% 56% Median
39 6% 41%  
40 11% 35%  
41 13% 23%  
42 8% 10%  
43 1.0% 2%  
44 0.5% 0.7%  
45 0.2% 0.3%  
46 0% 0% Majority

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 1.2% 99.8%  
33 0.9% 98.6%  
34 8% 98%  
35 8% 90%  
36 15% 82%  
37 11% 67%  
38 15% 56% Median
39 6% 41%  
40 11% 35%  
41 13% 23%  
42 8% 10%  
43 1.0% 2%  
44 0.5% 0.7%  
45 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
46 0% 0% Majority

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100% Last Result
31 0.1% 100%  
32 1.2% 99.8%  
33 0.9% 98.6%  
34 8% 98%  
35 8% 90%  
36 15% 82%  
37 11% 67%  
38 15% 56% Median
39 6% 41%  
40 11% 35%  
41 13% 23%  
42 8% 10%  
43 1.0% 2%  
44 0.5% 0.7%  
45 0.2% 0.3%  
46 0% 0% Majority

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 1.2% 99.8%  
33 0.9% 98.6%  
34 8% 98%  
35 8% 90%  
36 15% 82%  
37 11% 67%  
38 15% 56% Median
39 6% 41%  
40 11% 35% Last Result
41 13% 23%  
42 8% 10%  
43 1.0% 2%  
44 0.5% 0.7%  
45 0.2% 0.3%  
46 0% 0% Majority

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.1% 99.9%  
29 0.3% 99.8%  
30 2% 99.5%  
31 5% 97%  
32 8% 92%  
33 8% 84%  
34 13% 76%  
35 12% 63%  
36 10% 52% Median
37 12% 42%  
38 3% 30%  
39 18% 27%  
40 8% 9%  
41 0.6% 1.2%  
42 0.5% 0.6%  
43 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
44 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0% 100%  
25 0.4% 99.9%  
26 1.4% 99.6%  
27 6% 98%  
28 12% 92% Last Result
29 12% 80%  
30 8% 68%  
31 19% 59% Median
32 11% 41%  
33 18% 30%  
34 4% 12%  
35 5% 8%  
36 2% 3%  
37 0.8% 0.8%  
38 0% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0% 100%  
25 0.4% 99.9%  
26 1.4% 99.6%  
27 6% 98%  
28 12% 92%  
29 12% 80%  
30 8% 68%  
31 19% 59% Median
32 11% 41%  
33 18% 30%  
34 4% 12%  
35 5% 8%  
36 2% 3%  
37 0.8% 0.8%  
38 0% 0.1% Last Result
39 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0.4% 99.9%  
26 1.5% 99.6%  
27 6% 98%  
28 12% 92%  
29 12% 80%  
30 8% 68%  
31 19% 59% Median
32 11% 41%  
33 18% 30%  
34 4% 12%  
35 5% 8%  
36 2% 3%  
37 0.8% 0.8%  
38 0% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0% 100%  
25 0.4% 99.9%  
26 1.5% 99.6%  
27 6% 98%  
28 12% 92%  
29 12% 80%  
30 8% 68%  
31 19% 59% Median
32 11% 41%  
33 18% 30% Last Result
34 4% 12%  
35 5% 8%  
36 2% 3%  
37 0.8% 0.8%  
38 0% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 2% 100%  
16 2% 98%  
17 17% 96%  
18 13% 79%  
19 12% 66%  
20 20% 54% Median
21 10% 34%  
22 8% 24%  
23 15% 16%  
24 1.0% 2%  
25 0.5% 0.7% Last Result
26 0.2% 0.2%  
27 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations