Opinion Poll by Ninamedia for Dnevnik, Večer, 11–13 May 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 24.9% 28.9% 26.7–31.1% 26.1–31.8% 25.6–32.3% 24.6–33.4%
Socialni demokrati 9.9% 20.9% 19.0–22.9% 18.5–23.5% 18.0–24.0% 17.1–25.0%
Lista Marjana Šarca 12.6% 13.1% 11.6–14.9% 11.2–15.4% 10.8–15.9% 10.2–16.7%
Levica 9.3% 11.7% 10.3–13.4% 9.9–13.9% 9.5–14.3% 8.9–15.2%
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7.2% 11.7% 10.3–13.4% 9.9–13.9% 9.5–14.3% 8.9–15.2%
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5.1% 5.9% 4.9–7.2% 4.6–7.5% 4.3–7.9% 3.9–8.5%
Slovenska ljudska stranka 2.6% 3.0% 2.3–4.0% 2.1–4.3% 2.0–4.6% 1.7–5.1%
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4.2% 1.6% 1.1–2.4% 1.0–2.6% 0.9–2.8% 0.7–3.2%
Stranka modernega centra 9.7% 1.0% 0.7–1.7% 0.6–1.9% 0.5–2.1% 0.4–2.4%
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 4.9% 0.9% 0.5–1.5% 0.5–1.7% 0.4–1.9% 0.3–2.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 25 28 25–30 25–30 24–31 23–33
Socialni demokrati 10 20 18–22 17–23 17–24 16–24
Lista Marjana Šarca 13 13 11–14 10–14 10–15 9–16
Levica 9 11 9–13 9–13 9–14 8–14
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7 11 10–12 9–13 9–13 8–14
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5 5 4–7 4–7 4–7 0–8
Slovenska ljudska stranka 0 0 0–3 0–4 0–4 0–4
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4 0 0 0 0 0
Stranka modernega centra 10 0 0 0 0 0
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 5 0 0 0 0 0

Slovenska demokratska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100%  
23 0.8% 99.9%  
24 4% 99.2%  
25 8% 96% Last Result
26 14% 88%  
27 22% 73%  
28 18% 52% Median
29 17% 34%  
30 13% 17%  
31 3% 5%  
32 1.5% 2%  
33 0.6% 0.7%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100% Last Result
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.1% 100%  
16 1.0% 99.9%  
17 7% 98.9%  
18 13% 92%  
19 14% 79%  
20 18% 65% Median
21 24% 47%  
22 15% 23%  
23 5% 8%  
24 2% 3%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.5% 100%  
10 5% 99.5%  
11 13% 95%  
12 28% 82%  
13 37% 54% Last Result, Median
14 13% 17%  
15 3% 4%  
16 1.0% 1.1%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Levica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.1% 100%  
8 0.8% 99.9%  
9 11% 99.1% Last Result
10 29% 88%  
11 24% 59% Median
12 24% 36%  
13 9% 12%  
14 3% 3%  
15 0.3% 0.3%  
16 0% 0%  

Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.1% 100% Last Result
8 1.3% 99.9%  
9 5% 98.6%  
10 25% 93%  
11 34% 69% Median
12 25% 34%  
13 8% 10%  
14 2% 2%  
15 0.3% 0.4%  
16 0% 0%  

Stranka Alenke Bratušek

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.5% 100%  
1 0% 99.5%  
2 0% 99.5%  
3 0.2% 99.5%  
4 21% 99.3%  
5 44% 78% Last Result, Median
6 23% 34%  
7 10% 11%  
8 1.1% 1.2%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Slovenska ljudska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska ljudska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 89% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 11%  
2 0% 11%  
3 4% 11%  
4 7% 7%  
5 0.3% 0.3%  
6 0% 0%  

Slovenska nacionalna stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

Stranka modernega centra

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka modernega centra page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 50 49 89% 45–52 45–52 45–52 44–54
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 35 44 21% 41–46 40–47 39–47 38–48
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 45 44 21% 41–46 40–47 39–47 38–48
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 30 44 21% 41–46 40–47 39–47 38–48
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 40 44 21% 41–46 40–47 39–47 38–48
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 43 40 0.6% 38–43 37–43 37–44 36–46
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca 38 40 0.6% 38–43 37–43 37–44 36–46
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 43 38 0% 35–40 34–41 34–42 33–43
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 28 33 0% 30–35 29–36 29–36 28–37
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 38 33 0% 30–35 29–36 29–36 28–37
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca 23 33 0% 30–35 29–36 29–36 28–37
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra 33 33 0% 30–35 29–36 29–36 28–37
Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 25 20 0% 18–22 17–23 17–24 16–24

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.3% 99.9%  
44 2% 99.6%  
45 8% 98%  
46 6% 89% Majority
47 7% 83%  
48 14% 76%  
49 15% 62% Median
50 20% 47% Last Result
51 15% 27%  
52 10% 12%  
53 2% 2%  
54 0.5% 0.6%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100% Last Result
36 0% 100%  
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.5% 99.9%  
39 2% 99.4%  
40 6% 97%  
41 12% 91%  
42 4% 79%  
43 14% 75%  
44 17% 61% Median
45 22% 43%  
46 14% 21% Majority
47 5% 7%  
48 0.9% 1.3%  
49 0.3% 0.4%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.5% 99.9%  
39 2% 99.4%  
40 6% 97%  
41 12% 91%  
42 4% 79%  
43 14% 75%  
44 17% 61% Median
45 22% 43% Last Result
46 14% 21% Majority
47 5% 7%  
48 0.9% 1.3%  
49 0.3% 0.4%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100% Last Result
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.5% 99.9%  
39 2% 99.4%  
40 6% 97%  
41 12% 91%  
42 4% 79%  
43 14% 75%  
44 17% 61% Median
45 22% 43%  
46 14% 21% Majority
47 5% 7%  
48 0.9% 1.3%  
49 0.3% 0.4%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.5% 99.9%  
39 2% 99.4%  
40 6% 97% Last Result
41 12% 91%  
42 4% 79%  
43 14% 75%  
44 17% 61% Median
45 22% 43%  
46 14% 21% Majority
47 5% 7%  
48 0.9% 1.3%  
49 0.3% 0.4%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.4% 99.9%  
36 2% 99.5%  
37 5% 98%  
38 17% 93%  
39 14% 76%  
40 19% 62%  
41 13% 42% Median
42 17% 29%  
43 8% 12% Last Result
44 3% 4%  
45 1.1% 2%  
46 0.5% 0.6% Majority
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.4% 99.9%  
36 2% 99.5%  
37 5% 98%  
38 17% 93% Last Result
39 14% 76%  
40 19% 62%  
41 13% 42% Median
42 17% 29%  
43 8% 12%  
44 3% 4%  
45 1.1% 2%  
46 0.5% 0.6% Majority
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.3% 99.9%  
33 2% 99.7%  
34 8% 98%  
35 4% 90%  
36 10% 86%  
37 16% 76%  
38 16% 60% Median
39 19% 44%  
40 17% 25%  
41 3% 7%  
42 4% 4%  
43 0.5% 0.7% Last Result
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.3% 100%  
28 2% 99.7% Last Result
29 5% 98%  
30 8% 92%  
31 10% 84%  
32 16% 74%  
33 20% 58% Median
34 21% 38%  
35 13% 18%  
36 4% 5%  
37 0.7% 1.0%  
38 0.1% 0.2%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.3% 100%  
28 2% 99.7%  
29 5% 98%  
30 8% 92%  
31 10% 84%  
32 16% 74%  
33 20% 58% Median
34 21% 38%  
35 13% 18%  
36 4% 5%  
37 0.7% 1.0%  
38 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0.3% 100%  
28 2% 99.7%  
29 5% 98%  
30 8% 92%  
31 10% 84%  
32 16% 74%  
33 20% 58% Median
34 21% 38%  
35 13% 18%  
36 4% 5%  
37 0.7% 1.0%  
38 0.1% 0.2%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.3% 100%  
28 2% 99.7%  
29 5% 98%  
30 8% 92%  
31 10% 84%  
32 16% 74%  
33 20% 58% Last Result, Median
34 21% 38%  
35 13% 18%  
36 4% 5%  
37 0.7% 1.0%  
38 0.1% 0.2%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 1.0% 99.9%  
17 7% 98.9%  
18 13% 92%  
19 14% 79%  
20 18% 65% Median
21 24% 47%  
22 15% 23%  
23 5% 8%  
24 2% 3%  
25 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
26 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations