Opinion Poll by Parsifal for Nova 24TV, 10–13 May 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 24.9% 32.1% 29.9–34.4% 29.3–35.0% 28.8–35.6% 27.8–36.7%
Socialni demokrati 9.9% 17.6% 15.9–19.6% 15.4–20.1% 15.0–20.6% 14.2–21.5%
Lista Marjana Šarca 12.6% 12.1% 10.7–13.8% 10.3–14.3% 9.9–14.7% 9.3–15.5%
Levica 9.3% 7.6% 6.4–9.0% 6.1–9.4% 5.9–9.7% 5.4–10.5%
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7.2% 7.0% 5.9–8.4% 5.6–8.8% 5.4–9.1% 4.9–9.8%
Slovenska ljudska stranka 2.6% 6.1% 5.1–7.4% 4.8–7.7% 4.5–8.0% 4.1–8.7%
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 4.9% 3.4% 2.7–4.5% 2.5–4.8% 2.3–5.0% 2.0–5.6%
Piratska stranka Slovenije 2.2% 2.9% 2.2–3.9% 2.1–4.1% 1.9–4.4% 1.6–4.9%
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4.2% 2.6% 2.0–3.6% 1.8–3.8% 1.7–4.1% 1.4–4.6%
Dobra država 1.5% 1.8% 1.3–2.6% 1.2–2.8% 1.1–3.0% 0.9–3.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 25 32 29–34 28–35 28–35 27–36
Socialni demokrati 10 17 15–19 15–20 15–20 14–21
Lista Marjana Šarca 13 12 10–13 10–14 9–14 9–15
Levica 9 7 6–9 6–9 5–9 5–10
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7 7 5–8 5–8 5–9 4–9
Slovenska ljudska stranka 0 6 5–7 4–7 4–7 4–8
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 5 0 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–5
Piratska stranka Slovenije 0 0 0 0–4 0–4 0–4
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4 0 0 0 0–3 0–4
Dobra država 0 0 0 0 0 0

Slovenska demokratska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0% 100% Last Result
26 0.3% 100%  
27 0.5% 99.7%  
28 6% 99.2%  
29 7% 93%  
30 14% 86%  
31 20% 72%  
32 17% 52% Median
33 20% 34%  
34 8% 14%  
35 4% 6%  
36 1.0% 1.4%  
37 0.2% 0.3%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100% Last Result
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0.3% 100%  
14 2% 99.6%  
15 10% 98%  
16 19% 88%  
17 31% 68% Median
18 18% 38%  
19 14% 20%  
20 4% 5%  
21 0.8% 1.2%  
22 0.4% 0.4%  
23 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.2% 100%  
9 2% 99.8%  
10 14% 97%  
11 26% 83%  
12 21% 58% Median
13 28% 37% Last Result
14 7% 9%  
15 2% 2%  
16 0.2% 0.2%  
17 0% 0%  

Levica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 3% 99.9%  
6 28% 97%  
7 34% 69% Median
8 19% 35%  
9 15% 16% Last Result
10 1.1% 1.4%  
11 0.3% 0.3%  
12 0% 0%  

Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 1.2% 100%  
5 15% 98.8%  
6 32% 84%  
7 34% 52% Last Result, Median
8 16% 18%  
9 2% 3%  
10 0.4% 0.4%  
11 0% 0%  

Slovenska ljudska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska ljudska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.4% 100% Last Result
1 0% 99.6%  
2 0% 99.6%  
3 0% 99.6%  
4 8% 99.6%  
5 31% 92%  
6 37% 60% Median
7 22% 24%  
8 2% 2%  
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  

Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 71% 100% Median
1 0% 29%  
2 0% 29%  
3 2% 29%  
4 25% 27%  
5 2% 2% Last Result
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Piratska stranka Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratska stranka Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 92% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 8%  
2 0% 8%  
3 1.2% 8%  
4 6% 6%  
5 0.2% 0.2%  
6 0% 0%  

Slovenska nacionalna stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Median
1 0% 3%  
2 0% 3%  
3 0.5% 3%  
4 2% 2% Last Result
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Dobra država

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Dobra država page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 43 45 30% 42–47 41–48 40–48 39–50
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca 38 44 18% 41–46 40–46 39–47 38–49
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 35 37 0% 34–39 33–41 32–42 31–42
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 30 35 0% 33–38 32–39 32–39 31–41
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 28 30 0% 27–34 27–34 26–34 25–36
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca 23 29 0% 27–31 26–32 26–33 24–34

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.5% 99.9%  
40 4% 99.4%  
41 3% 95%  
42 8% 92%  
43 9% 85% Last Result
44 18% 76% Median
45 28% 58%  
46 16% 30% Majority
47 8% 13%  
48 3% 5%  
49 2% 2%  
50 0.4% 0.7%  
51 0.2% 0.3%  
52 0% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.2% 100%  
37 0.2% 99.8%  
38 0.5% 99.7% Last Result
39 2% 99.1%  
40 7% 97%  
41 14% 91%  
42 10% 77%  
43 13% 67%  
44 18% 54% Median
45 18% 35%  
46 15% 18% Majority
47 2% 3%  
48 0.5% 1.0%  
49 0.4% 0.5%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.6% 99.9%  
32 2% 99.3%  
33 4% 97%  
34 7% 93%  
35 17% 85% Last Result
36 16% 69% Median
37 16% 53%  
38 16% 37%  
39 12% 21%  
40 4% 10%  
41 1.0% 6%  
42 5% 5%  
43 0.2% 0.3%  
44 0% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.3% 100% Last Result
31 2% 99.7%  
32 4% 98%  
33 6% 94%  
34 16% 88%  
35 23% 72%  
36 16% 49% Median
37 15% 33%  
38 10% 17%  
39 5% 7%  
40 2% 2%  
41 0.5% 0.7%  
42 0.2% 0.2%  
43 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.2% 100%  
25 0.9% 99.8%  
26 3% 98.9%  
27 11% 96%  
28 12% 86% Last Result
29 13% 74% Median
30 21% 61%  
31 10% 40%  
32 12% 30%  
33 7% 19%  
34 10% 12%  
35 0.5% 1.4%  
36 0.8% 0.9%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100% Last Result
24 0.5% 99.9%  
25 2% 99.5%  
26 5% 98%  
27 13% 93%  
28 19% 79%  
29 15% 60% Median
30 29% 45%  
31 8% 16%  
32 5% 9%  
33 3% 4%  
34 0.6% 0.7%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations