Opinion Poll by Mediana for POP TV, 1–23 May 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 24.9% 27.1% 25.1–29.4% 24.5–30.0% 24.0–30.5% 23.0–31.6%
Socialni demokrati 9.9% 14.9% 13.3–16.8% 12.9–17.3% 12.5–17.7% 11.8–18.6%
Lista Marjana Šarca 12.6% 13.4% 11.8–15.1% 11.4–15.6% 11.1–16.1% 10.4–16.9%
Levica 9.3% 12.5% 11.1–14.3% 10.6–14.7% 10.3–15.2% 9.6–16.0%
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7.2% 6.8% 5.7–8.1% 5.4–8.5% 5.1–8.8% 4.7–9.5%
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5.1% 3.9% 3.1–5.0% 2.9–5.4% 2.7–5.6% 2.4–6.2%
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 4.9% 3.7% 2.9–4.7% 2.7–5.0% 2.5–5.3% 2.2–5.9%
Slovenska ljudska stranka 2.6% 3.2% 2.5–4.3% 2.3–4.6% 2.2–4.8% 1.9–5.3%
Andrej Čuš in Zeleni Slovenije 1.1% 2.7% 2.0–3.6% 1.9–3.9% 1.7–4.1% 1.5–4.6%
Piratska stranka Slovenije 2.2% 2.3% 1.7–3.1% 1.5–3.4% 1.4–3.6% 1.2–4.1%
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4.2% 2.1% 1.6–3.0% 1.4–3.2% 1.3–3.5% 1.1–3.9%
Dobra država 1.5% 1.5% 1.1–2.3% 1.0–2.5% 0.9–2.8% 0.7–3.2%
Stranka modernega centra 9.7% 1.3% 0.9–2.0% 0.8–2.2% 0.7–2.4% 0.5–2.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 25 29 28–30 26–31 25–32 24–35
Socialni demokrati 10 17 15–17 14–18 14–19 13–20
Lista Marjana Šarca 13 14 13–15 12–15 12–17 11–18
Levica 9 12 12–18 12–18 11–18 10–18
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7 6 6–8 6–9 5–9 5–10
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5 0 0–5 0–5 0–5 0–6
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 5 4 0–4 0–4 0–5 0–5
Slovenska ljudska stranka 0 0 0 0–4 0–4 0–5
Andrej Čuš in Zeleni Slovenije 0 0 0 0 0 0–4
Piratska stranka Slovenije 0 0 0 0 0 0–4
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4 0 0 0 0 0
Dobra država 0 0 0 0 0 0
Stranka modernega centra 10 0 0 0 0 0

Slovenska demokratska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100%  
24 0.6% 99.9%  
25 4% 99.4% Last Result
26 1.0% 95%  
27 2% 94%  
28 4% 92%  
29 77% 88% Median
30 5% 11%  
31 3% 6%  
32 1.4% 3%  
33 0.4% 2%  
34 0.3% 1.2%  
35 0.8% 0.8%  
36 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100% Last Result
11 0% 100%  
12 0.4% 100%  
13 1.2% 99.6%  
14 5% 98%  
15 24% 93%  
16 8% 69%  
17 57% 62% Median
18 2% 5%  
19 0.3% 3%  
20 2% 2%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100%  
11 2% 99.9%  
12 7% 98%  
13 2% 91% Last Result
14 75% 89% Median
15 9% 14%  
16 1.3% 5%  
17 3% 4%  
18 0.4% 0.7%  
19 0.3% 0.4%  
20 0% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Levica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100% Last Result
10 0.4% 99.9%  
11 2% 99.5%  
12 58% 97% Median
13 7% 39%  
14 10% 32%  
15 2% 22%  
16 3% 20%  
17 0.3% 17%  
18 17% 17%  
19 0% 0%  

Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.3% 100%  
5 5% 99.7%  
6 57% 95% Median
7 24% 38% Last Result
8 9% 14%  
9 4% 6%  
10 1.1% 1.2%  
11 0% 0.1%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Stranka Alenke Bratušek

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 85% 100% Median
1 0% 15%  
2 0% 15%  
3 0% 15%  
4 5% 15%  
5 9% 10% Last Result
6 1.3% 1.4%  
7 0% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 38% 100%  
1 0% 62%  
2 0% 62%  
3 0% 62%  
4 59% 62% Median
5 3% 3% Last Result
6 0.4% 0.4%  
7 0% 0%  

Slovenska ljudska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska ljudska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 93% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 7%  
2 0% 7%  
3 0% 7%  
4 6% 7%  
5 2% 2%  
6 0% 0%  

Andrej Čuš in Zeleni Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Andrej Čuš in Zeleni Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.4% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.6%  
2 0% 0.6%  
3 0% 0.6%  
4 0.5% 0.6%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Piratska stranka Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratska stranka Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.5% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.5%  
2 0% 0.5%  
3 0% 0.5%  
4 0.5% 0.5%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Slovenska nacionalna stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

Dobra država

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Dobra država page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Stranka modernega centra

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka modernega centra page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 43 47 65% 43–47 40–47 37–49 37–52
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca 38 43 5% 42–44 39–46 37–46 37–52
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 50 41 1.1% 36–42 36–44 36–44 36–48
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 35 41 1.0% 36–41 36–41 35–44 33–48
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 45 41 1.0% 36–41 36–41 35–44 33–48
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 30 37 0.1% 36–39 35–40 33–40 31–43
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 40 37 0.1% 36–39 35–40 33–40 31–43
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 43 35 0% 29–35 29–37 29–39 29–39
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 28 35 0% 29–35 28–35 28–38 25–39
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 38 35 0% 29–35 28–35 28–38 25–39
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca 23 31 0% 28–31 28–33 26–35 25–35
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra 33 31 0% 28–31 28–33 26–35 25–35
Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 25 21 0% 15–21 15–21 14–23 13–24

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 4% 100%  
38 0.1% 96%  
39 0.5% 96%  
40 1.1% 96%  
41 0.4% 94%  
42 1.2% 94%  
43 19% 93% Last Result
44 4% 73%  
45 4% 69%  
46 5% 65% Majority
47 56% 60% Median
48 0.5% 4%  
49 2% 3%  
50 0.6% 2%  
51 0.2% 1.0%  
52 0.6% 0.9%  
53 0.1% 0.2%  
54 0% 0.2%  
55 0.2% 0.2%  
56 0% 0%  

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.2% 100%  
37 4% 99.8%  
38 0.4% 96% Last Result
39 0.7% 95%  
40 2% 95%  
41 0.3% 92%  
42 3% 92%  
43 75% 89% Median
44 5% 14%  
45 4% 9%  
46 3% 5% Majority
47 0.7% 2%  
48 0.2% 2%  
49 0.3% 1.5%  
50 0.5% 1.1%  
51 0% 0.7%  
52 0.6% 0.6%  
53 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 99.9%  
35 0.4% 99.9%  
36 17% 99.6%  
37 1.1% 82%  
38 4% 81%  
39 5% 77%  
40 3% 72%  
41 58% 69% Median
42 3% 11%  
43 0.6% 8%  
44 5% 8%  
45 1.0% 2%  
46 0.1% 1.1% Majority
47 0.1% 1.0%  
48 0.9% 0.9%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0% Last Result

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.2% 100%  
32 0.1% 99.8%  
33 0.8% 99.7%  
34 0.5% 98.9%  
35 1.4% 98% Last Result
36 23% 97%  
37 2% 74%  
38 4% 72%  
39 7% 68%  
40 3% 61%  
41 54% 58% Median
42 0.5% 4%  
43 0.2% 4%  
44 2% 3%  
45 0.2% 1.2%  
46 0.1% 1.0% Majority
47 0% 0.9%  
48 0.9% 0.9%  
49 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.2% 100%  
32 0.1% 99.8%  
33 0.8% 99.7%  
34 0.5% 98.9%  
35 1.4% 98%  
36 23% 97%  
37 2% 74%  
38 4% 72%  
39 7% 68%  
40 3% 61%  
41 54% 58% Median
42 0.5% 4%  
43 0.2% 4%  
44 2% 3%  
45 0.2% 1.2% Last Result
46 0.1% 1.0% Majority
47 0% 0.9%  
48 0.9% 0.9%  
49 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100% Last Result
31 1.2% 99.9%  
32 0.1% 98.7%  
33 2% 98.6%  
34 1.2% 97%  
35 4% 96%  
36 23% 92%  
37 55% 70% Median
38 4% 15%  
39 4% 10%  
40 5% 7%  
41 0.4% 2%  
42 0.1% 1.2%  
43 0.9% 1.1%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0.1%  
46 0.1% 0.1% Majority
47 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100%  
31 1.2% 99.9%  
32 0.1% 98.7%  
33 2% 98.6%  
34 1.2% 97%  
35 4% 96%  
36 23% 92%  
37 55% 70% Median
38 4% 15%  
39 4% 10%  
40 5% 7% Last Result
41 0.4% 2%  
42 0.1% 1.2%  
43 0.9% 1.1%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0.1%  
46 0.1% 0.1% Majority
47 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0% 99.9%  
28 0.2% 99.8%  
29 18% 99.7%  
30 5% 82%  
31 2% 77%  
32 2% 74%  
33 6% 73%  
34 2% 67%  
35 57% 65% Median
36 1.3% 8%  
37 2% 7%  
38 2% 5%  
39 3% 3%  
40 0.2% 0.3%  
41 0% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0% Last Result

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.9% 100%  
26 0.2% 99.1%  
27 0.5% 98.9%  
28 4% 98% Last Result
29 19% 94%  
30 7% 75%  
31 4% 68%  
32 4% 64%  
33 3% 61%  
34 1.0% 58%  
35 53% 57% Median
36 0.5% 4%  
37 0.1% 3%  
38 1.0% 3%  
39 2% 2%  
40 0.2% 0.2%  
41 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.9% 100%  
26 0.2% 99.1%  
27 0.5% 98.9%  
28 4% 98%  
29 19% 94%  
30 7% 75%  
31 4% 68%  
32 4% 64%  
33 3% 61%  
34 1.0% 58%  
35 53% 57% Median
36 0.5% 4%  
37 0.1% 3%  
38 1.0% 3% Last Result
39 2% 2%  
40 0.2% 0.2%  
41 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0.1% 100%  
25 2% 99.9%  
26 2% 98%  
27 1.0% 96%  
28 6% 95%  
29 19% 89%  
30 5% 70%  
31 57% 65% Median
32 3% 9%  
33 3% 6%  
34 0.3% 3%  
35 3% 3%  
36 0.1% 0.2%  
37 0% 0.1%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 2% 99.9%  
26 2% 98%  
27 1.0% 96%  
28 6% 95%  
29 19% 89%  
30 5% 70%  
31 57% 65% Median
32 3% 9%  
33 3% 6% Last Result
34 0.3% 3%  
35 3% 3%  
36 0.1% 0.2%  
37 0% 0.1%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.2% 100%  
13 1.0% 99.8%  
14 2% 98.7%  
15 22% 97%  
16 7% 75%  
17 4% 68%  
18 4% 64%  
19 1.4% 60%  
20 1.3% 58%  
21 53% 57% Median
22 0.4% 4%  
23 1.0% 3%  
24 2% 2%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations