Opinion Poll by Mediana for Delo, 7–10 June 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 24.9% 25.9% 23.9–28.1% 23.3–28.7% 22.8–29.3% 21.9–30.3%
Socialni demokrati 9.9% 16.2% 14.5–18.1% 14.1–18.6% 13.7–19.1% 12.9–20.0%
Lista Marjana Šarca 12.6% 14.5% 12.9–16.3% 12.5–16.8% 12.1–17.3% 11.4–18.2%
Levica 9.3% 12.8% 11.3–14.6% 10.9–15.1% 10.5–15.5% 9.9–16.4%
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7.2% 5.2% 4.3–6.4% 4.0–6.8% 3.8–7.1% 3.4–7.7%
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 4.9% 4.1% 3.3–5.2% 3.0–5.5% 2.9–5.8% 2.5–6.4%
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5.1% 3.5% 2.8–4.6% 2.6–4.9% 2.4–5.2% 2.1–5.7%
Piratska stranka Slovenije 2.2% 3.0% 2.3–3.9% 2.1–4.2% 1.9–4.5% 1.7–5.0%
Dobra država 1.5% 3.0% 2.3–3.9% 2.1–4.2% 1.9–4.5% 1.7–5.0%
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4.2% 2.5% 1.9–3.5% 1.8–3.7% 1.6–4.0% 1.4–4.5%
Andrej Čuš in Zeleni Slovenije 1.1% 2.5% 1.9–3.5% 1.8–3.7% 1.6–4.0% 1.4–4.5%
Slovenska ljudska stranka 2.6% 2.4% 1.8–3.3% 1.6–3.6% 1.5–3.8% 1.3–4.3%
Stranka modernega centra 9.7% 0.8% 0.5–1.5% 0.5–1.7% 0.4–1.8% 0.3–2.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 25 30 26–32 25–33 24–34 23–35
Socialni demokrati 10 19 16–20 16–21 15–21 14–23
Lista Marjana Šarca 13 17 14–19 14–20 13–20 12–20
Levica 9 13 12–16 12–16 10–17 10–19
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7 5 4–6 4–7 4–7 0–8
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 5 4 0–5 0–5 0–6 0–6
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5 0 0–4 0–4 0–5 0–5
Piratska stranka Slovenije 0 0 0 0–4 0–4 0–5
Dobra država 0 0 0 0 0–4 0–5
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4 0 0 0 0 0–5
Andrej Čuš in Zeleni Slovenije 0 0 0 0–4 0–4 0–5
Slovenska ljudska stranka 0 0 0 0 0 0–4
Stranka modernega centra 10 0 0 0 0 0

Slovenska demokratska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.5% 100%  
23 1.0% 99.5%  
24 2% 98%  
25 4% 96% Last Result
26 9% 93%  
27 17% 84%  
28 9% 67%  
29 4% 57%  
30 29% 53% Median
31 1.5% 24%  
32 13% 22%  
33 6% 9%  
34 2% 3%  
35 0.6% 0.7%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100% Last Result
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0.3% 100%  
14 0.7% 99.7%  
15 2% 99.0%  
16 30% 97%  
17 6% 67%  
18 9% 61%  
19 22% 51% Median
20 23% 29%  
21 6% 7%  
22 0.5% 1.0%  
23 0.5% 0.6%  
24 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 1.3% 99.9%  
13 3% 98.6% Last Result
14 11% 95%  
15 21% 84%  
16 4% 63%  
17 35% 59% Median
18 2% 25%  
19 14% 22%  
20 8% 9%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Levica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100% Last Result
10 4% 99.9%  
11 1.0% 96%  
12 39% 95%  
13 7% 57% Median
14 17% 49%  
15 16% 32%  
16 11% 16%  
17 2% 5%  
18 2% 2%  
19 0.6% 0.6%  
20 0% 0%  

Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 0% 98%  
2 0% 98%  
3 0% 98%  
4 20% 98%  
5 47% 77% Median
6 24% 30%  
7 5% 6% Last Result
8 0.9% 1.1%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 39% 100%  
1 0% 61%  
2 0% 61%  
3 0% 61%  
4 33% 61% Median
5 24% 28% Last Result
6 4% 4%  
7 0.2% 0.2%  
8 0% 0%  

Stranka Alenke Bratušek

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 81% 100% Median
1 0% 19%  
2 0% 19%  
3 0% 19%  
4 15% 19%  
5 3% 4% Last Result
6 0.3% 0.4%  
7 0% 0%  

Piratska stranka Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratska stranka Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 93% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 7%  
2 0% 7%  
3 0% 7%  
4 5% 7%  
5 2% 2%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Dobra država

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Dobra država page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 96% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 4%  
2 0% 4%  
3 0% 4%  
4 2% 4%  
5 1.2% 1.5%  
6 0.3% 0.3%  
7 0% 0%  

Slovenska nacionalna stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.7% 100% Median
1 0% 1.3%  
2 0% 1.3%  
3 0% 1.3%  
4 0.5% 1.3% Last Result
5 0.8% 0.9%  
6 0% 0%  

Andrej Čuš in Zeleni Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Andrej Čuš in Zeleni Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 94% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 6%  
2 0% 6%  
3 0% 6%  
4 5% 6%  
5 0.7% 0.8%  
6 0% 0%  

Slovenska ljudska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska ljudska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.4% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.6%  
2 0% 0.6%  
3 0% 0.6%  
4 0.5% 0.6%  
5 0.1% 0.2%  
6 0% 0%  

Stranka modernega centra

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka modernega centra page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 43 49 83% 44–52 42–52 41–52 39–57
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca 38 46 62% 40–49 40–50 39–50 36–52
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra 50 44 31% 39–46 38–49 36–49 36–50
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 35 42 22% 39–46 37–46 36–46 35–47
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 45 42 22% 39–46 37–46 36–46 35–47
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra 43 39 0% 34–42 32–43 31–43 30–45
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 30 41 0.5% 36–42 35–42 34–42 32–45
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 40 41 0.5% 36–42 35–42 34–42 32–45
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 28 38 0% 34–42 32–42 30–42 30–44
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 38 38 0% 34–42 32–42 30–42 30–44
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca 23 35 0% 31–37 30–37 29–38 28–39
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra 33 35 0% 31–37 30–37 29–38 28–39
Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 25 20 0% 16–25 16–25 16–25 15–26

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.7% 100%  
40 1.4% 99.2%  
41 2% 98%  
42 2% 96%  
43 2% 94% Last Result
44 7% 92%  
45 2% 85%  
46 11% 83% Majority
47 3% 72%  
48 7% 69%  
49 20% 62%  
50 19% 41%  
51 4% 23% Median
52 17% 19%  
53 1.5% 2%  
54 0.2% 0.8%  
55 0.1% 0.6%  
56 0% 0.5%  
57 0.5% 0.5%  
58 0% 0%  

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.8% 100%  
37 0.5% 99.2%  
38 0.8% 98.7% Last Result
39 1.2% 98%  
40 7% 97%  
41 2% 90%  
42 11% 88%  
43 4% 77%  
44 3% 73%  
45 8% 70%  
46 12% 62% Majority
47 21% 50% Median
48 7% 29%  
49 13% 22%  
50 8% 9%  
51 0% 0.6%  
52 0.5% 0.6%  
53 0% 0.1%  
54 0% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100%  
34 0.1% 99.9%  
35 0.1% 99.9%  
36 2% 99.8%  
37 2% 97%  
38 2% 95%  
39 7% 93%  
40 3% 87%  
41 17% 84%  
42 9% 67%  
43 2% 58%  
44 21% 57%  
45 4% 36% Median
46 23% 31% Majority
47 0.9% 9%  
48 0.8% 8%  
49 6% 7%  
50 0.7% 0.8% Last Result
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0% 99.9%  
34 0.1% 99.9%  
35 1.0% 99.8% Last Result
36 3% 98.8%  
37 2% 96%  
38 3% 94%  
39 7% 91%  
40 7% 84%  
41 17% 77%  
42 11% 59%  
43 2% 49%  
44 16% 47%  
45 9% 31% Median
46 21% 22% Majority
47 0.7% 1.0%  
48 0.2% 0.3%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0% 99.9%  
34 0.1% 99.9%  
35 1.0% 99.8%  
36 3% 98.8%  
37 2% 96%  
38 3% 94%  
39 7% 91%  
40 7% 84%  
41 17% 77%  
42 11% 59%  
43 2% 49%  
44 16% 47%  
45 9% 31% Last Result, Median
46 21% 22% Majority
47 0.7% 1.0%  
48 0.2% 0.3%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0% 100%  
30 2% 99.9%  
31 1.0% 98%  
32 2% 97%  
33 1.5% 95%  
34 8% 93%  
35 5% 86%  
36 21% 81%  
37 2% 60%  
38 3% 58%  
39 19% 54%  
40 5% 35% Median
41 3% 30%  
42 18% 27%  
43 7% 8% Last Result
44 0.7% 2%  
45 0.9% 1.0%  
46 0% 0% Majority

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100% Last Result
31 0.2% 99.9%  
32 0.6% 99.7%  
33 0.7% 99.1%  
34 2% 98%  
35 3% 97%  
36 8% 93%  
37 3% 85%  
38 5% 82%  
39 7% 77%  
40 19% 70%  
41 36% 51% Median
42 13% 15%  
43 0.6% 2%  
44 0.6% 1.4%  
45 0.3% 0.8%  
46 0% 0.5% Majority
47 0.4% 0.4%  
48 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.2% 99.9%  
32 0.6% 99.7%  
33 0.7% 99.1%  
34 2% 98%  
35 3% 97%  
36 8% 93%  
37 3% 85%  
38 5% 82%  
39 7% 77%  
40 19% 70% Last Result
41 36% 51% Median
42 13% 15%  
43 0.6% 2%  
44 0.6% 1.4%  
45 0.3% 0.8%  
46 0% 0.5% Majority
47 0.4% 0.4%  
48 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0.4% 100%  
30 3% 99.6%  
31 1.4% 97%  
32 3% 96%  
33 2% 93%  
34 9% 91%  
35 8% 82%  
36 22% 74%  
37 2% 52%  
38 4% 50%  
39 21% 46%  
40 5% 25% Median
41 3% 20%  
42 16% 17%  
43 0.2% 0.8%  
44 0.5% 0.6%  
45 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.4% 100%  
30 3% 99.6%  
31 1.4% 97%  
32 3% 96%  
33 2% 93%  
34 9% 91%  
35 8% 82%  
36 22% 74%  
37 2% 52%  
38 4% 50% Last Result
39 21% 46%  
40 5% 25% Median
41 3% 20%  
42 16% 17%  
43 0.2% 0.8%  
44 0.5% 0.6%  
45 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.5% 99.9%  
29 3% 99.4%  
30 5% 96%  
31 7% 92%  
32 4% 85%  
33 2% 81%  
34 11% 79%  
35 27% 68%  
36 20% 41% Median
37 17% 21%  
38 3% 4%  
39 0.7% 1.1%  
40 0.4% 0.5%  
41 0% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.5% 99.9%  
29 3% 99.4%  
30 5% 96%  
31 7% 92%  
32 4% 85%  
33 2% 81% Last Result
34 11% 79%  
35 27% 68%  
36 20% 41% Median
37 17% 21%  
38 3% 4%  
39 0.7% 1.1%  
40 0.4% 0.5%  
41 0% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 0.2% 99.9%  
15 0.9% 99.8%  
16 12% 98.8%  
17 1.4% 87%  
18 4% 85%  
19 19% 81%  
20 15% 62%  
21 6% 47%  
22 6% 41%  
23 6% 36% Median
24 11% 30%  
25 18% 19% Last Result
26 0.4% 0.7%  
27 0.3% 0.3%  
28 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations