Opinion Poll by Episcenter for Domovina, 10–15 June 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slovenska demokratska stranka | 24.9% | 24.4% | 22.2–26.8% | 21.6–27.5% | 21.0–28.1% | 20.0–29.3% |
| Lista Marjana Šarca | 12.6% | 22.3% | 20.1–24.6% | 19.5–25.3% | 19.0–25.9% | 18.0–27.0% |
| Socialni demokrati | 9.9% | 18.9% | 16.9–21.2% | 16.4–21.8% | 15.9–22.3% | 15.0–23.5% |
| Levica | 9.3% | 11.1% | 9.6–13.0% | 9.2–13.5% | 8.8–14.0% | 8.1–14.9% |
| Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati | 7.2% | 11.1% | 9.6–13.0% | 9.2–13.5% | 8.8–14.0% | 8.1–14.9% |
| Stranka Alenke Bratušek | 5.1% | 5.7% | 4.6–7.1% | 4.3–7.5% | 4.0–7.9% | 3.6–8.6% |
| Piratska stranka Slovenije | 2.2% | 3.4% | 2.6–4.5% | 2.3–4.9% | 2.2–5.2% | 1.8–5.8% |
| Dobra država | 1.5% | 2.3% | 1.7–3.3% | 1.5–3.6% | 1.4–3.9% | 1.1–4.5% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slovenska demokratska stranka | 25 | 23 | 21–25 | 20–26 | 20–26 | 19–28 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca | 13 | 21 | 19–23 | 18–24 | 18–24 | 17–26 |
| Socialni demokrati | 10 | 18 | 16–20 | 15–20 | 15–21 | 14–22 |
| Levica | 9 | 10 | 9–12 | 8–13 | 8–13 | 7–14 |
| Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati | 7 | 10 | 9–12 | 8–13 | 8–13 | 7–14 |
| Stranka Alenke Bratušek | 5 | 5 | 4–6 | 4–7 | 0–7 | 0–8 |
| Piratska stranka Slovenije | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 |
| Dobra država | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 |
Slovenska demokratska stranka
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 19 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 20 | 7% | 98% | |
| 21 | 12% | 91% | |
| 22 | 26% | 79% | |
| 23 | 19% | 53% | Median |
| 24 | 13% | 34% | |
| 25 | 11% | 20% | Last Result |
| 26 | 7% | 9% | |
| 27 | 2% | 2% | |
| 28 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 17 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 18 | 6% | 98% | |
| 19 | 14% | 92% | |
| 20 | 18% | 78% | |
| 21 | 24% | 60% | Median |
| 22 | 18% | 36% | |
| 23 | 10% | 18% | |
| 24 | 5% | 7% | |
| 25 | 2% | 2% | |
| 26 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
Socialni demokrati
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 14 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 15 | 6% | 98% | |
| 16 | 15% | 92% | |
| 17 | 24% | 77% | |
| 18 | 21% | 53% | Median |
| 19 | 20% | 32% | |
| 20 | 8% | 12% | |
| 21 | 3% | 4% | |
| 22 | 0.9% | 1.2% | |
| 23 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
Levica
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 1.0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 8% | 98.9% | |
| 9 | 19% | 91% | Last Result |
| 10 | 29% | 73% | Median |
| 11 | 26% | 44% | |
| 12 | 12% | 17% | |
| 13 | 4% | 6% | |
| 14 | 1.0% | 1.2% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 0.9% | 100% | Last Result |
| 8 | 7% | 99.1% | |
| 9 | 21% | 92% | |
| 10 | 28% | 71% | Median |
| 11 | 22% | 43% | |
| 12 | 16% | 21% | |
| 13 | 4% | 5% | |
| 14 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Stranka Alenke Bratušek
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 97% | |
| 2 | 0% | 97% | |
| 3 | 1.0% | 97% | |
| 4 | 25% | 96% | |
| 5 | 35% | 71% | Last Result, Median |
| 6 | 28% | 36% | |
| 7 | 7% | 8% | |
| 8 | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Piratska stranka Slovenije
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratska stranka Slovenije page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 78% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 22% | |
| 2 | 0% | 22% | |
| 3 | 6% | 22% | |
| 4 | 14% | 16% | |
| 5 | 2% | 2% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Dobra država
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Dobra država page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 2% | |
| 3 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 4 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati | 30 | 49 | 93% | 46–52 | 45–53 | 45–53 | 43–54 |
| Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca | 38 | 44 | 21% | 41–47 | 40–47 | 40–48 | 38–49 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati | 23 | 39 | 0.1% | 36–41 | 35–42 | 34–43 | 33–44 |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 31 | 0% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 44 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 45 | 4% | 98% | |
| 46 | 8% | 93% | Majority |
| 47 | 11% | 86% | |
| 48 | 16% | 74% | |
| 49 | 16% | 58% | Median |
| 50 | 19% | 42% | |
| 51 | 11% | 23% | |
| 52 | 7% | 13% | |
| 53 | 3% | 5% | |
| 54 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 55 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 56 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% |
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 37 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0.4% | 99.8% | Last Result |
| 39 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 40 | 4% | 98% | |
| 41 | 8% | 94% | |
| 42 | 14% | 86% | |
| 43 | 18% | 72% | |
| 44 | 19% | 55% | Median |
| 45 | 14% | 35% | |
| 46 | 10% | 21% | Majority |
| 47 | 7% | 11% | |
| 48 | 3% | 5% | |
| 49 | 1.1% | 1.5% | |
| 50 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 51 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 34 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 35 | 4% | 97% | |
| 36 | 10% | 93% | |
| 37 | 15% | 84% | |
| 38 | 13% | 69% | |
| 39 | 22% | 55% | Median |
| 40 | 15% | 33% | |
| 41 | 9% | 18% | |
| 42 | 5% | 9% | |
| 43 | 2% | 3% | |
| 44 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 45 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 47 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Episcenter
- Commissioner(s): Domovina
- Fieldwork period: 10–15 June 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 566
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.54%