Opinion Poll by Mediana for Delo, 5–7 July 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 24.9% 25.6% 23.6–27.8% 23.0–28.4% 22.6–29.0% 21.6–30.0%
Socialni demokrati 9.9% 17.5% 15.7–19.4% 15.3–20.0% 14.8–20.4% 14.1–21.4%
Levica 9.3% 12.5% 11.1–14.3% 10.7–14.8% 10.3–15.2% 9.6–16.0%
Lista Marjana Šarca 12.6% 11.4% 10.0–13.1% 9.6–13.5% 9.3–14.0% 8.6–14.8%
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7.2% 8.5% 7.2–9.9% 6.9–10.4% 6.6–10.7% 6.1–11.5%
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 4.9% 5.1% 4.2–6.3% 3.9–6.6% 3.7–7.0% 3.3–7.6%
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5.1% 4.8% 3.9–6.0% 3.7–6.3% 3.4–6.6% 3.1–7.2%
Piratska stranka Slovenije 2.2% 4.8% 3.9–6.0% 3.7–6.3% 3.4–6.6% 3.1–7.2%
Dobra država 1.5% 3.0% 2.3–3.9% 2.1–4.2% 1.9–4.5% 1.7–5.0%
Andrej Čuš in Zeleni Slovenije 1.1% 2.4% 1.8–3.3% 1.6–3.6% 1.5–3.8% 1.3–4.3%
Slovenska ljudska stranka 2.6% 1.8% 1.3–2.7% 1.2–2.9% 1.1–3.1% 0.9–3.6%
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4.2% 1.3% 0.9–2.0% 0.8–2.2% 0.7–2.4% 0.5–2.8%
Stranka modernega centra 9.7% 0.6% 0.3–1.1% 0.3–1.3% 0.2–1.4% 0.1–1.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 25 26 24–28 23–28 22–29 22–31
Socialni demokrati 10 16 15–20 14–20 14–21 13–22
Levica 9 13 11–15 11–15 10–16 9–16
Lista Marjana Šarca 13 11 9–13 9–13 9–14 8–14
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7 9 7–10 7–11 7–11 6–11
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 5 5 4–6 3–6 0–6 0–8
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5 4 4–6 4–6 0–6 0–7
Piratska stranka Slovenije 0 5 0–6 0–6 0–6 0–7
Dobra država 0 0 0 0 0–4 0–5
Andrej Čuš in Zeleni Slovenije 0 0 0 0 0 0–4
Slovenska ljudska stranka 0 0 0 0 0 0
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4 0 0 0 0 0
Stranka modernega centra 10 0 0 0 0 0

Slovenska demokratska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.2% 99.9%  
21 0.1% 99.7%  
22 3% 99.6%  
23 3% 97%  
24 22% 94%  
25 18% 73% Last Result
26 38% 55% Median
27 3% 16%  
28 10% 13%  
29 2% 3%  
30 0.6% 1.2%  
31 0.4% 0.6%  
32 0% 0.1%  
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100% Last Result
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0.7% 100%  
14 9% 99.2%  
15 21% 91%  
16 41% 70% Median
17 3% 29%  
18 7% 25%  
19 6% 19%  
20 9% 13%  
21 2% 4%  
22 1.0% 1.1%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Levica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.3% 100%  
9 0.5% 99.7% Last Result
10 3% 99.2%  
11 17% 97%  
12 20% 80%  
13 38% 60% Median
14 11% 21%  
15 8% 10%  
16 3% 3%  
17 0% 0.1%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.6% 100%  
9 20% 99.4%  
10 15% 79%  
11 32% 64% Median
12 14% 32%  
13 16% 18% Last Result
14 2% 3%  
15 0.4% 0.5%  
16 0% 0%  

Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.4% 100%  
6 2% 99.6%  
7 9% 98% Last Result
8 14% 89%  
9 36% 75% Median
10 30% 39%  
11 9% 9%  
12 0.2% 0.2%  
13 0% 0%  

Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 5% 100%  
1 0% 95%  
2 0% 95%  
3 0.2% 95%  
4 43% 95%  
5 26% 52% Last Result, Median
6 23% 26%  
7 2% 2%  
8 0.6% 0.6%  
9 0% 0%  

Stranka Alenke Bratušek

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 5% 100%  
1 0% 95%  
2 0% 95%  
3 0.1% 95%  
4 69% 95% Median
5 14% 27% Last Result
6 11% 13%  
7 2% 2%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Piratska stranka Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratska stranka Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 17% 100% Last Result
1 0% 83%  
2 0% 83%  
3 0.1% 83%  
4 18% 83%  
5 43% 65% Median
6 21% 22%  
7 0.7% 0.7%  
8 0% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Dobra država

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Dobra država page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 3%  
2 0% 3%  
3 0% 3%  
4 3% 3%  
5 0.6% 0.6%  
6 0% 0%  

Andrej Čuš in Zeleni Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Andrej Čuš in Zeleni Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.1% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.9%  
2 0% 0.9%  
3 0% 0.9%  
4 0.9% 0.9%  
5 0% 0%  

Slovenska ljudska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska ljudska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Slovenska nacionalna stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

Stranka modernega centra

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka modernega centra page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra 50 44 42% 43–50 43–51 42–51 39–51
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 35 40 10% 39–46 38–47 37–47 35–48
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 45 40 10% 39–46 38–47 37–47 35–48
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 43 41 2% 39–43 38–44 38–45 36–48
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra 43 35 0.1% 33–42 33–42 33–43 31–44
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 30 36 0% 35–41 35–41 33–41 31–42
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 40 36 0% 35–41 35–41 33–41 31–42
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca 38 37 0.1% 35–39 34–40 33–41 32–43
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 28 31 0% 29–37 29–38 29–38 27–40
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 38 31 0% 29–37 29–38 29–38 27–40
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca 23 27 0% 25–32 25–32 25–33 24–34
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra 33 27 0% 25–32 25–32 25–33 24–34
Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 25 20 0% 18–26 18–26 18–26 16–28

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0% 100%  
38 0.1% 99.9%  
39 0.6% 99.8%  
40 0.4% 99.2%  
41 1.0% 98.8%  
42 2% 98%  
43 32% 96%  
44 18% 64%  
45 4% 46% Median
46 11% 42% Majority
47 3% 31%  
48 15% 29%  
49 1.1% 14%  
50 4% 13% Last Result
51 9% 9%  
52 0.3% 0.4%  
53 0% 0.2%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.3% 100%  
35 0.7% 99.7% Last Result
36 0.3% 99.0%  
37 2% 98.8%  
38 2% 97%  
39 31% 95%  
40 19% 64%  
41 4% 45% Median
42 14% 41%  
43 10% 27%  
44 5% 17%  
45 2% 12%  
46 1.2% 10% Majority
47 8% 9%  
48 1.0% 1.1%  
49 0% 0.1%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.3% 100%  
35 0.7% 99.7%  
36 0.3% 99.0%  
37 2% 98.8%  
38 2% 97%  
39 31% 95%  
40 19% 64%  
41 4% 45% Median
42 14% 41%  
43 10% 27%  
44 5% 17%  
45 2% 12% Last Result
46 1.2% 10% Majority
47 8% 9%  
48 1.0% 1.1%  
49 0% 0.1%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.2% 99.9%  
36 0.2% 99.7%  
37 1.3% 99.5%  
38 4% 98%  
39 20% 95%  
40 17% 74%  
41 20% 57%  
42 3% 37% Median
43 28% 34% Last Result
44 1.1% 6%  
45 2% 4%  
46 1.0% 2% Majority
47 0.3% 1.1%  
48 0.5% 0.9%  
49 0.4% 0.4%  
50 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.1% 99.9%  
31 0.9% 99.8%  
32 0.8% 98.9%  
33 27% 98%  
34 3% 71%  
35 27% 68%  
36 3% 40% Median
37 3% 37%  
38 3% 34%  
39 11% 31%  
40 7% 20%  
41 1.0% 13%  
42 8% 12%  
43 3% 4% Last Result
44 0.8% 0.9%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0.1% 0.1% Majority
47 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100% Last Result
31 0.7% 99.9%  
32 0.3% 99.2%  
33 2% 98.9%  
34 2% 97%  
35 41% 96%  
36 14% 55% Median
37 19% 40%  
38 2% 21%  
39 4% 19%  
40 3% 14%  
41 10% 12%  
42 2% 2%  
43 0.3% 0.5%  
44 0% 0.2%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0% Majority

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.7% 99.9%  
32 0.3% 99.2%  
33 2% 98.9%  
34 2% 97%  
35 41% 96%  
36 14% 55% Median
37 19% 40%  
38 2% 21%  
39 4% 19%  
40 3% 14% Last Result
41 10% 12%  
42 2% 2%  
43 0.3% 0.5%  
44 0% 0.2%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0% Majority

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.2% 99.9%  
32 0.5% 99.7%  
33 2% 99.1%  
34 6% 97%  
35 31% 91%  
36 8% 60%  
37 31% 52% Median
38 5% 21% Last Result
39 9% 16%  
40 3% 6%  
41 1.0% 3%  
42 2% 2%  
43 0.5% 0.6%  
44 0% 0.1%  
45 0% 0.1%  
46 0.1% 0.1% Majority
47 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0% 99.9%  
26 0.3% 99.9%  
27 0.6% 99.6%  
28 0.4% 99.0% Last Result
29 28% 98.6%  
30 5% 71%  
31 26% 66%  
32 4% 40% Median
33 4% 36%  
34 14% 33%  
35 2% 19%  
36 3% 17%  
37 4% 14%  
38 8% 10%  
39 0.6% 2%  
40 1.0% 1.0%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0% 99.9%  
26 0.3% 99.9%  
27 0.6% 99.6%  
28 0.4% 99.0%  
29 28% 98.6%  
30 5% 71%  
31 26% 66%  
32 4% 40% Median
33 4% 36%  
34 14% 33%  
35 2% 19%  
36 3% 17%  
37 4% 14%  
38 8% 10% Last Result
39 0.6% 2%  
40 1.0% 1.0%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
24 1.2% 99.8%  
25 29% 98.6%  
26 14% 69%  
27 15% 55% Median
28 16% 40%  
29 4% 24%  
30 2% 20%  
31 3% 18%  
32 13% 15%  
33 2% 3%  
34 0.9% 1.2%  
35 0.1% 0.2%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.1% 99.9%  
24 1.2% 99.8%  
25 29% 98.6%  
26 14% 69%  
27 15% 55% Median
28 16% 40%  
29 4% 24%  
30 2% 20%  
31 3% 18%  
32 13% 15%  
33 2% 3% Last Result
34 0.9% 1.2%  
35 0.1% 0.2%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.5% 100%  
16 1.0% 99.5%  
17 0.7% 98%  
18 10% 98%  
19 2% 88%  
20 44% 86%  
21 16% 42% Median
22 2% 26%  
23 2% 24%  
24 9% 22%  
25 2% 13% Last Result
26 9% 11%  
27 1.4% 2%  
28 0.5% 0.5%  
29 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations