Opinion Poll by Ninamedia for Dnevnik, Večer, 13–15 July 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 24.9% 29.0% 26.9–31.3% 26.3–31.9% 25.8–32.5% 24.8–33.6%
Socialni demokrati 9.9% 20.1% 18.3–22.2% 17.8–22.8% 17.3–23.3% 16.5–24.3%
Levica 9.3% 16.0% 14.3–17.9% 13.9–18.4% 13.5–18.9% 12.7–19.8%
Lista Marjana Šarca 12.6% 14.6% 13.0–16.4% 12.5–16.9% 12.1–17.4% 11.4–18.3%
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7.2% 7.6% 6.4–9.0% 6.1–9.4% 5.8–9.8% 5.3–10.5%
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5.1% 5.7% 4.7–7.0% 4.5–7.4% 4.2–7.7% 3.8–8.4%
Slovenska ljudska stranka 2.6% 1.7% 1.2–2.5% 1.1–2.8% 1.0–3.0% 0.8–3.4%
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 4.9% 1.1% 0.8–1.9% 0.7–2.1% 0.6–2.2% 0.4–2.6%
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4.2% 0.9% 0.5–1.5% 0.5–1.7% 0.4–1.9% 0.3–2.2%
Stranka modernega centra 9.7% 0.6% 0.3–1.1% 0.3–1.3% 0.2–1.5% 0.2–1.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 25 27 26–30 25–30 25–31 24–32
Socialni demokrati 10 19 18–21 17–21 17–22 16–23
Levica 9 15 14–17 13–17 12–17 12–19
Lista Marjana Šarca 13 13 13–15 12–16 12–16 11–17
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7 7 6–9 6–9 5–9 5–10
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5 5 4–6 4–7 4–7 0–8
Slovenska ljudska stranka 0 0 0 0 0 0
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 5 0 0 0 0 0
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4 0 0 0 0 0
Stranka modernega centra 10 0 0 0 0 0

Slovenska demokratska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.4% 99.9%  
24 2% 99.5%  
25 5% 98% Last Result
26 5% 93%  
27 46% 89% Median
28 13% 43%  
29 13% 29%  
30 13% 16%  
31 2% 3%  
32 0.7% 0.9%  
33 0.2% 0.3%  
34 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100% Last Result
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.5% 100%  
16 2% 99.5%  
17 7% 98%  
18 20% 91%  
19 36% 71% Median
20 15% 35%  
21 16% 20%  
22 3% 4%  
23 0.8% 0.9%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Levica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 0% 100%  
11 0.1% 100%  
12 3% 99.9%  
13 7% 97%  
14 15% 91%  
15 29% 76% Median
16 35% 47%  
17 10% 12%  
18 1.5% 2%  
19 0.6% 0.7%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.3% 100%  
11 2% 99.7%  
12 4% 98%  
13 50% 94% Last Result, Median
14 24% 44%  
15 15% 20%  
16 3% 5%  
17 2% 2%  
18 0.4% 0.4%  
19 0% 0%  

Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.2% 100%  
5 3% 99.8%  
6 32% 97%  
7 42% 65% Last Result, Median
8 10% 23%  
9 12% 13%  
10 0.6% 0.7%  
11 0% 0%  

Stranka Alenke Bratušek

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.0% 100%  
1 0% 99.0%  
2 0% 99.0%  
3 0.1% 99.0%  
4 32% 98.9%  
5 25% 67% Last Result, Median
6 36% 42%  
7 5% 6%  
8 0.5% 0.5%  
9 0% 0%  

Slovenska ljudska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska ljudska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0% Last Result

Slovenska nacionalna stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

Stranka modernega centra

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka modernega centra page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 50 45 40% 42–47 42–48 41–49 41–49
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 43 41 1.4% 40–43 39–44 39–45 37–46
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca 38 41 1.4% 40–43 39–44 39–45 37–46
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 35 40 0.1% 38–42 37–43 36–43 36–45
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 45 40 0.1% 38–42 37–43 36–43 36–45
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 30 40 0.1% 38–42 37–43 36–43 36–45
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 40 40 0.1% 38–42 37–43 36–43 36–45
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 43 38 0% 35–40 35–41 35–41 33–43
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 28 33 0% 31–35 30–36 30–36 29–37
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 38 33 0% 31–35 30–36 30–36 29–37
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca 23 33 0% 31–35 30–36 30–36 29–37
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra 33 33 0% 31–35 30–36 30–36 29–37
Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 25 19 0% 18–21 17–21 17–22 16–23

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.3% 99.9%  
41 2% 99.5%  
42 11% 97%  
43 6% 86%  
44 18% 80% Median
45 21% 62%  
46 24% 40% Majority
47 10% 16%  
48 3% 6%  
49 3% 3%  
50 0.3% 0.4% Last Result
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.2% 100%  
37 0.5% 99.8%  
38 1.1% 99.3%  
39 5% 98%  
40 37% 94% Median
41 17% 57%  
42 7% 40%  
43 23% 33% Last Result
44 5% 9%  
45 2% 4%  
46 1.1% 1.4% Majority
47 0.2% 0.3%  
48 0% 0%  

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.2% 100%  
37 0.5% 99.8%  
38 1.1% 99.3% Last Result
39 5% 98%  
40 37% 94% Median
41 17% 57%  
42 7% 40%  
43 23% 33%  
44 5% 9%  
45 2% 4%  
46 1.1% 1.4% Majority
47 0.2% 0.3%  
48 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.3% 99.9% Last Result
36 3% 99.5%  
37 3% 97%  
38 14% 94%  
39 26% 80% Median
40 28% 55%  
41 11% 26%  
42 5% 15%  
43 7% 10%  
44 1.3% 2%  
45 1.1% 1.2%  
46 0.1% 0.1% Majority
47 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.3% 99.9%  
36 3% 99.5%  
37 3% 97%  
38 14% 94%  
39 26% 80% Median
40 28% 55%  
41 11% 26%  
42 5% 15%  
43 7% 10%  
44 1.3% 2%  
45 1.1% 1.2% Last Result
46 0.1% 0.1% Majority
47 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100% Last Result
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.3% 99.9%  
36 3% 99.5%  
37 3% 97%  
38 14% 94%  
39 26% 80% Median
40 28% 55%  
41 11% 26%  
42 5% 15%  
43 7% 10%  
44 1.3% 2%  
45 1.1% 1.2%  
46 0.1% 0.1% Majority
47 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.3% 99.9%  
36 3% 99.5%  
37 3% 97%  
38 14% 94%  
39 26% 80% Median
40 28% 55% Last Result
41 11% 26%  
42 5% 15%  
43 7% 10%  
44 1.3% 2%  
45 1.1% 1.2%  
46 0.1% 0.1% Majority
47 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.7% 99.9%  
34 0.8% 99.2%  
35 11% 98%  
36 6% 87%  
37 16% 81% Median
38 32% 65%  
39 14% 33%  
40 12% 19%  
41 4% 6%  
42 2% 2%  
43 0.4% 0.6% Last Result
44 0.2% 0.2%  
45 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0% 100%  
28 0.4% 99.9% Last Result
29 1.5% 99.5%  
30 4% 98%  
31 16% 94%  
32 26% 79% Median
33 14% 53%  
34 29% 39%  
35 4% 10%  
36 4% 6%  
37 2% 2%  
38 0.3% 0.3%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0% 100%  
28 0.4% 99.9%  
29 1.5% 99.5%  
30 4% 98%  
31 16% 94%  
32 26% 79% Median
33 14% 53%  
34 29% 39%  
35 4% 10%  
36 4% 6%  
37 2% 2%  
38 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0.4% 99.9%  
29 1.5% 99.5%  
30 4% 98%  
31 16% 94%  
32 26% 79% Median
33 14% 53%  
34 29% 39%  
35 4% 10%  
36 4% 6%  
37 2% 2%  
38 0.3% 0.3%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0% 100%  
28 0.4% 99.9%  
29 1.5% 99.5%  
30 4% 98%  
31 16% 94%  
32 26% 79% Median
33 14% 53% Last Result
34 29% 39%  
35 4% 10%  
36 4% 6%  
37 2% 2%  
38 0.3% 0.3%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.5% 100%  
16 2% 99.5%  
17 7% 98%  
18 20% 91%  
19 36% 71% Median
20 15% 35%  
21 16% 20%  
22 3% 4%  
23 0.8% 0.9%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations