Opinion Poll by Mediana for POP TV, 1–25 July 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 24.9% 27.5% 25.4–29.7% 24.8–30.3% 24.3–30.8% 23.3–31.9%
Socialni demokrati 9.9% 17.8% 16.0–19.7% 15.6–20.3% 15.2–20.8% 14.4–21.7%
Levica 9.3% 12.2% 10.7–13.9% 10.3–14.4% 10.0–14.8% 9.3–15.7%
Lista Marjana Šarca 12.6% 12.0% 10.6–13.7% 10.2–14.2% 9.9–14.6% 9.2–15.5%
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7.2% 6.4% 5.4–7.8% 5.1–8.2% 4.9–8.5% 4.4–9.2%
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5.1% 4.1% 3.3–5.2% 3.0–5.5% 2.8–5.8% 2.5–6.4%
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 4.9% 3.5% 2.8–4.6% 2.6–4.9% 2.4–5.1% 2.1–5.7%
Piratska stranka Slovenije 2.2% 2.9% 2.3–3.9% 2.1–4.2% 1.9–4.5% 1.6–5.0%
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4.2% 2.7% 2.0–3.6% 1.9–3.9% 1.7–4.1% 1.4–4.6%
Slovenska ljudska stranka 2.6% 2.1% 1.6–3.0% 1.4–3.2% 1.3–3.4% 1.1–3.9%
Andrej Čuš in Zeleni Slovenije 1.1% 1.8% 1.3–2.7% 1.2–2.9% 1.1–3.1% 0.9–3.5%
Dobra država 1.5% 1.5% 1.1–2.3% 1.0–2.5% 0.9–2.7% 0.7–3.2%
Stranka modernega centra 9.7% 0.8% 0.5–1.5% 0.5–1.7% 0.4–1.8% 0.3–2.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 25 29 26–32 26–33 25–34 24–34
Socialni demokrati 10 18 17–22 17–22 17–22 15–23
Levica 9 12 11–14 11–14 11–15 10–17
Lista Marjana Šarca 13 12 11–15 10–16 10–16 10–17
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7 6 5–8 5–9 4–9 4–10
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5 0 0–5 0–5 0–6 0–6
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 5 4 0–4 0–5 0–5 0–6
Piratska stranka Slovenije 0 0 0 0 0–4 0–5
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4 0 0 0 0–4 0–4
Slovenska ljudska stranka 0 0 0 0 0 0
Andrej Čuš in Zeleni Slovenije 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dobra država 0 0 0 0 0 0
Stranka modernega centra 10 0 0 0 0 0

Slovenska demokratska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100%  
24 0.6% 99.9%  
25 2% 99.3% Last Result
26 15% 97%  
27 15% 82%  
28 12% 67%  
29 5% 55% Median
30 8% 50%  
31 30% 42%  
32 6% 12%  
33 1.0% 6%  
34 4% 5%  
35 0.2% 0.3%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100% Last Result
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0.1% 100%  
15 1.0% 99.9%  
16 1.4% 98.9%  
17 34% 98%  
18 14% 63% Median
19 18% 49%  
20 10% 31%  
21 5% 21%  
22 15% 16%  
23 1.0% 1.3%  
24 0.2% 0.2%  
25 0% 0%  

Levica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.2% 100% Last Result
10 2% 99.8%  
11 23% 98%  
12 28% 75% Median
13 33% 47%  
14 10% 14%  
15 2% 3%  
16 0.9% 1.5%  
17 0.5% 0.6%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0% 100%  
9 0.2% 99.9%  
10 6% 99.8%  
11 34% 94%  
12 25% 60% Median
13 19% 35% Last Result
14 3% 17%  
15 3% 13%  
16 9% 10%  
17 0.5% 0.6%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 3% 99.9%  
5 20% 97%  
6 39% 77% Median
7 26% 38% Last Result
8 7% 13%  
9 5% 6%  
10 0.8% 1.0%  
11 0.2% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Stranka Alenke Bratušek

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 51% 100% Median
1 0% 49%  
2 0% 49%  
3 0% 49%  
4 39% 49%  
5 8% 10% Last Result
6 2% 3%  
7 0.2% 0.2%  
8 0% 0%  

Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 47% 100%  
1 0% 53%  
2 0% 53%  
3 0% 53%  
4 47% 53% Median
5 5% 6% Last Result
6 0.5% 0.6%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Piratska stranka Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratska stranka Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 96% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 4%  
2 0% 4%  
3 0% 4%  
4 3% 4%  
5 2% 2%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Slovenska nacionalna stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Median
1 0% 3%  
2 0% 3%  
3 0% 3%  
4 3% 3% Last Result
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Slovenska ljudska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska ljudska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.2%  
2 0% 0.2%  
3 0% 0.2%  
4 0.1% 0.2%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Andrej Čuš in Zeleni Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Andrej Čuš in Zeleni Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Dobra država

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Dobra država page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Stranka modernega centra

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka modernega centra page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 43 43 26% 41–48 40–48 39–48 36–49
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 50 41 16% 37–47 36–48 35–48 35–48
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca 38 42 2% 38–44 38–45 37–45 35–47
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 35 40 0.9% 36–44 35–44 34–44 32–46
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 45 40 0.9% 36–44 35–44 34–44 32–46
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 30 37 0.3% 34–40 34–41 34–42 32–45
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 40 37 0.3% 34–40 34–41 34–42 32–45
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 43 34 0% 30–40 29–42 28–42 28–42
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 28 33 0% 29–37 28–38 28–38 27–39
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 38 33 0% 29–37 28–38 28–38 27–39
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca 23 31 0% 28–34 28–34 28–34 26–37
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra 33 31 0% 28–34 28–34 28–34 26–37
Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 25 21 0% 17–23 17–24 17–24 15–27

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.6% 99.9%  
37 0.5% 99.3%  
38 0.9% 98.8%  
39 3% 98%  
40 3% 95%  
41 5% 92%  
42 37% 87%  
43 10% 50% Last Result
44 4% 40%  
45 10% 36% Median
46 1.2% 26% Majority
47 10% 25%  
48 15% 16%  
49 0.4% 0.9%  
50 0.2% 0.5%  
51 0.2% 0.3%  
52 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.4% 99.9%  
35 4% 99.5%  
36 0.8% 95%  
37 5% 94%  
38 4% 89%  
39 17% 86%  
40 17% 69% Median
41 6% 52%  
42 9% 46%  
43 4% 37%  
44 4% 33%  
45 13% 30%  
46 6% 16% Majority
47 1.0% 11%  
48 9% 10%  
49 0.1% 0.3%  
50 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
51 0% 0%  

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.6% 99.9%  
36 0.8% 99.3%  
37 2% 98.5%  
38 19% 97% Last Result
39 8% 78%  
40 5% 70%  
41 5% 65% Median
42 20% 60%  
43 13% 40%  
44 17% 27%  
45 7% 9%  
46 1.2% 2% Majority
47 0.6% 1.0%  
48 0.3% 0.4%  
49 0.1% 0.2%  
50 0% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0% 100%  
32 0.5% 99.9%  
33 0.4% 99.4%  
34 2% 99.1%  
35 5% 97% Last Result
36 3% 92%  
37 7% 89%  
38 11% 82%  
39 21% 71%  
40 16% 51% Median
41 18% 34%  
42 5% 16%  
43 1.4% 12%  
44 9% 10%  
45 0.4% 1.3%  
46 0.4% 0.9% Majority
47 0.2% 0.4%  
48 0.3% 0.3%  
49 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0% 100%  
32 0.5% 99.9%  
33 0.4% 99.4%  
34 2% 99.1%  
35 5% 97%  
36 3% 92%  
37 7% 89%  
38 11% 82%  
39 21% 71%  
40 16% 51% Median
41 18% 34%  
42 5% 16%  
43 1.4% 12%  
44 9% 10%  
45 0.4% 1.3% Last Result
46 0.4% 0.9% Majority
47 0.2% 0.4%  
48 0.3% 0.3%  
49 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100% Last Result
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.8% 99.9%  
33 0.9% 99.1%  
34 10% 98%  
35 20% 88%  
36 5% 68% Median
37 21% 63%  
38 6% 42%  
39 4% 35%  
40 24% 31%  
41 2% 7%  
42 3% 4%  
43 0.6% 1.5%  
44 0.3% 0.9%  
45 0.3% 0.6%  
46 0% 0.3% Majority
47 0.1% 0.3%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.8% 99.9%  
33 0.9% 99.1%  
34 10% 98%  
35 20% 88%  
36 5% 68% Median
37 21% 63%  
38 6% 42%  
39 4% 35%  
40 24% 31% Last Result
41 2% 7%  
42 3% 4%  
43 0.6% 1.5%  
44 0.3% 0.9%  
45 0.3% 0.6%  
46 0% 0.3% Majority
47 0.1% 0.3%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 4% 99.9%  
29 2% 95%  
30 4% 94%  
31 0.9% 89%  
32 2% 89%  
33 22% 86%  
34 16% 64% Median
35 4% 48%  
36 10% 44%  
37 2% 34%  
38 4% 32%  
39 16% 29%  
40 4% 13%  
41 0.4% 9%  
42 9% 9%  
43 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.4% 99.9%  
27 0.4% 99.5%  
28 5% 99.1% Last Result
29 6% 94%  
30 6% 88%  
31 2% 82%  
32 11% 80%  
33 20% 69%  
34 20% 49% Median
35 17% 29%  
36 2% 12%  
37 0.5% 10%  
38 9% 10%  
39 0.4% 0.9%  
40 0.4% 0.5%  
41 0% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.4% 99.9%  
27 0.4% 99.5%  
28 5% 99.1%  
29 6% 94%  
30 6% 88%  
31 2% 82%  
32 11% 80%  
33 20% 69%  
34 20% 49% Median
35 17% 29%  
36 2% 12%  
37 0.5% 10%  
38 9% 10% Last Result
39 0.4% 0.9%  
40 0.4% 0.5%  
41 0% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.7% 99.9%  
27 0.8% 99.1%  
28 12% 98%  
29 10% 87%  
30 22% 77% Median
31 17% 55%  
32 6% 38%  
33 19% 33%  
34 12% 14%  
35 1.0% 2%  
36 0.7% 1.4%  
37 0.2% 0.7%  
38 0.1% 0.5%  
39 0.3% 0.4%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.7% 99.9%  
27 0.8% 99.1%  
28 12% 98%  
29 10% 87%  
30 22% 77% Median
31 17% 55%  
32 6% 38%  
33 19% 33% Last Result
34 12% 14%  
35 1.0% 2%  
36 0.7% 1.4%  
37 0.2% 0.7%  
38 0.1% 0.5%  
39 0.3% 0.4%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0% 100%  
15 0.6% 99.9%  
16 0.8% 99.4%  
17 10% 98.6%  
18 4% 89%  
19 5% 84%  
20 7% 79%  
21 26% 72%  
22 28% 46% Median
23 14% 19%  
24 3% 5%  
25 2% 2% Last Result
26 0.1% 0.7%  
27 0.3% 0.6%  
28 0.1% 0.3%  
29 0.2% 0.2%  
30 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations