Opinion Poll by Mediana for Delo, 2–5 August 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 24.9% 25.9% 23.9–28.1% 23.4–28.7% 22.9–29.3% 21.9–30.3%
Socialni demokrati 9.9% 19.4% 17.6–21.4% 17.1–21.9% 16.7–22.5% 15.8–23.4%
Levica 9.3% 12.7% 11.2–14.4% 10.8–14.9% 10.5–15.3% 9.8–16.2%
Lista Marjana Šarca 12.6% 11.2% 9.8–12.8% 9.4–13.3% 9.1–13.7% 8.4–14.5%
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7.2% 5.6% 4.6–6.8% 4.3–7.2% 4.1–7.5% 3.7–8.2%
Piratska stranka Slovenije 2.2% 3.9% 3.1–5.0% 2.9–5.3% 2.7–5.6% 2.4–6.2%
Andrej Čuš in Zeleni Slovenije 1.1% 3.5% 2.7–4.5% 2.5–4.8% 2.4–5.1% 2.1–5.7%
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5.1% 3.2% 2.5–4.2% 2.3–4.5% 2.1–4.8% 1.8–5.3%
Slovenska ljudska stranka 2.6% 3.1% 2.4–4.1% 2.2–4.4% 2.0–4.6% 1.8–5.1%
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4.2% 2.6% 2.0–3.6% 1.8–3.9% 1.7–4.1% 1.4–4.6%
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 4.9% 2.4% 1.8–3.3% 1.6–3.5% 1.5–3.8% 1.2–4.3%
Dobra država 1.5% 1.3% 0.9–2.0% 0.7–2.2% 0.7–2.4% 0.5–2.8%
Stranka modernega centra 9.7% 1.1% 0.7–1.8% 0.7–2.0% 0.6–2.2% 0.4–2.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 25 30 26–33 25–33 24–33 23–33
Socialni demokrati 10 22 20–23 19–23 18–24 17–26
Levica 9 13 12–15 12–16 12–17 11–18
Lista Marjana Šarca 13 13 10–15 10–16 9–16 9–16
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7 7 5–7 5–7 4–8 4–9
Piratska stranka Slovenije 0 0 0–4 0–5 0–5 0–6
Andrej Čuš in Zeleni Slovenije 0 0 0–4 0–5 0–5 0–6
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5 0 0 0–4 0–5 0–5
Slovenska ljudska stranka 0 0 0 0 0–4 0–5
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4 0 0 0 0–4 0–4
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 5 0 0 0 0 0–4
Dobra država 0 0 0 0 0 0
Stranka modernega centra 10 0 0 0 0 0

Slovenska demokratska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.3% 100%  
23 1.1% 99.6%  
24 3% 98.5%  
25 5% 96% Last Result
26 7% 90%  
27 2% 83%  
28 6% 81%  
29 15% 75%  
30 15% 60% Median
31 3% 46%  
32 3% 43%  
33 40% 40%  
34 0.2% 0.2%  
35 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100% Last Result
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0.2% 100%  
17 2% 99.8%  
18 2% 98%  
19 3% 96%  
20 13% 93%  
21 18% 80%  
22 52% 62% Median
23 5% 10%  
24 3% 5%  
25 0.4% 2%  
26 2% 2%  
27 0% 0%  

Levica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100% Last Result
10 0.3% 99.9%  
11 1.2% 99.6%  
12 13% 98%  
13 53% 85% Median
14 12% 32%  
15 13% 20%  
16 3% 7%  
17 1.0% 3%  
18 2% 2%  
19 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100%  
9 3% 99.9%  
10 16% 97%  
11 12% 81%  
12 10% 70%  
13 47% 60% Last Result, Median
14 3% 14%  
15 2% 10%  
16 9% 9%  
17 0% 0%  

Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.5% 100%  
1 0% 99.5%  
2 0% 99.5%  
3 0% 99.5%  
4 2% 99.5%  
5 21% 97%  
6 11% 77%  
7 62% 65% Last Result, Median
8 1.4% 3%  
9 2% 2%  
10 0% 0%  

Piratska stranka Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratska stranka Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 85% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 15%  
2 0% 15%  
3 0% 15%  
4 8% 15%  
5 5% 7%  
6 2% 2%  
7 0.3% 0.3%  
8 0% 0%  

Andrej Čuš in Zeleni Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Andrej Čuš in Zeleni Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 78% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 22%  
2 0% 22%  
3 0% 22%  
4 16% 22%  
5 5% 6%  
6 0.5% 0.6%  
7 0% 0%  

Stranka Alenke Bratušek

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 90% 100% Median
1 0% 10%  
2 0% 10%  
3 0% 10%  
4 6% 10%  
5 4% 4% Last Result
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Slovenska ljudska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska ljudska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 3%  
2 0% 3%  
3 0% 3%  
4 2% 3%  
5 0.7% 0.7%  
6 0% 0%  

Slovenska nacionalna stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 96% 100% Median
1 0% 4%  
2 0% 4%  
3 0% 4%  
4 3% 4% Last Result
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.4% 100% Median
1 0% 0.6%  
2 0% 0.6%  
3 0% 0.6%  
4 0.4% 0.6%  
5 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
6 0% 0%  

Dobra država

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Dobra država page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Stranka modernega centra

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka modernega centra page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 43 44 40% 37–46 36–46 35–46 33–46
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca 38 44 40% 37–46 36–46 35–46 33–46
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 35 42 0.1% 37–44 36–44 35–44 32–45
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 50 42 0.8% 37–44 36–44 35–44 32–46
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 45 42 0.1% 37–44 36–44 35–44 32–45
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 30 42 0.1% 36–44 36–44 35–44 32–45
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 40 42 0.1% 36–44 36–44 35–44 32–45
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 43 35 0% 32–37 31–37 30–38 27–39
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 28 35 0% 31–37 31–37 29–37 27–38
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 38 35 0% 31–37 31–37 29–37 27–38
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca 23 35 0% 31–37 31–37 29–37 27–38
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra 33 35 0% 31–37 31–37 29–37 27–38
Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 25 22 0% 20–23 19–24 18–24 17–26

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.3% 100%  
33 0.5% 99.7%  
34 0.2% 99.2%  
35 3% 98.9%  
36 3% 96%  
37 4% 93%  
38 6% 89%  
39 6% 82%  
40 12% 76%  
41 4% 64%  
42 2% 60%  
43 7% 58% Last Result, Median
44 1.1% 51%  
45 9% 49%  
46 40% 40% Majority
47 0.1% 0.3%  
48 0.2% 0.2%  
49 0% 0%  

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.3% 100%  
33 0.6% 99.7%  
34 0.3% 99.0%  
35 3% 98.8%  
36 3% 96%  
37 4% 92%  
38 6% 89% Last Result
39 6% 82%  
40 12% 76%  
41 4% 64%  
42 2% 60%  
43 7% 58% Median
44 1.1% 50%  
45 9% 49%  
46 40% 40% Majority
47 0% 0.2%  
48 0.2% 0.2%  
49 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.1% 99.9%  
32 1.1% 99.8%  
33 0.4% 98.7%  
34 0.6% 98%  
35 1.3% 98% Last Result
36 6% 96%  
37 12% 90%  
38 4% 78%  
39 10% 74%  
40 7% 64%  
41 3% 57%  
42 41% 54% Median
43 2% 13%  
44 11% 11%  
45 0.5% 0.6%  
46 0.1% 0.1% Majority
47 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 1.0% 99.9%  
33 0.2% 98.9%  
34 0.4% 98.7%  
35 0.9% 98%  
36 4% 97%  
37 11% 94%  
38 3% 83%  
39 8% 79%  
40 7% 72%  
41 5% 64%  
42 42% 59% Median
43 5% 17%  
44 11% 12%  
45 0.7% 2%  
46 0.4% 0.8% Majority
47 0% 0.4%  
48 0.4% 0.4%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0% Last Result

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.1% 99.9%  
32 1.1% 99.8%  
33 0.4% 98.7%  
34 0.6% 98%  
35 1.3% 98%  
36 6% 96%  
37 12% 90%  
38 4% 78%  
39 10% 74%  
40 7% 64%  
41 3% 57%  
42 41% 54% Median
43 2% 13%  
44 11% 11%  
45 0.5% 0.6% Last Result
46 0.1% 0.1% Majority
47 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100% Last Result
31 0.1% 99.9%  
32 1.1% 99.8%  
33 0.4% 98.7%  
34 0.6% 98%  
35 1.5% 98%  
36 6% 96%  
37 12% 90%  
38 4% 78%  
39 10% 73%  
40 7% 64%  
41 3% 57%  
42 41% 54% Median
43 2% 13%  
44 11% 11%  
45 0.5% 0.6%  
46 0.1% 0.1% Majority
47 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.1% 99.9%  
32 1.1% 99.8%  
33 0.4% 98.7%  
34 0.6% 98%  
35 1.5% 98%  
36 6% 96%  
37 12% 90%  
38 4% 78%  
39 10% 73%  
40 7% 64% Last Result
41 3% 57%  
42 41% 54% Median
43 2% 13%  
44 11% 11%  
45 0.5% 0.6%  
46 0.1% 0.1% Majority
47 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.3% 100%  
27 0.7% 99.7%  
28 0.4% 99.0%  
29 0.5% 98.5%  
30 1.3% 98%  
31 5% 97%  
32 17% 92%  
33 6% 75%  
34 4% 69%  
35 43% 65% Median
36 8% 22%  
37 10% 14%  
38 3% 4%  
39 0.7% 0.9%  
40 0.2% 0.3%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0% Last Result

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.3% 99.9%  
27 0.8% 99.6%  
28 0.8% 98.8% Last Result
29 0.7% 98%  
30 2% 97%  
31 7% 96%  
32 20% 88%  
33 7% 68%  
34 4% 61%  
35 43% 57% Median
36 2% 14%  
37 9% 11%  
38 2% 2%  
39 0.1% 0.2%  
40 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.3% 99.9%  
27 0.8% 99.6%  
28 0.8% 98.8%  
29 0.7% 98%  
30 2% 97%  
31 7% 96%  
32 20% 88%  
33 7% 68%  
34 4% 61%  
35 43% 57% Median
36 2% 14%  
37 9% 11%  
38 2% 2% Last Result
39 0.1% 0.2%  
40 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.3% 99.9%  
27 0.8% 99.6%  
28 0.8% 98.8%  
29 0.8% 98%  
30 2% 97%  
31 7% 95%  
32 20% 88%  
33 7% 68%  
34 4% 61%  
35 43% 57% Median
36 2% 14%  
37 9% 11%  
38 2% 2%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.3% 99.9%  
27 0.8% 99.6%  
28 0.8% 98.8%  
29 0.8% 98%  
30 2% 97%  
31 7% 95%  
32 20% 88%  
33 7% 68% Last Result
34 4% 61%  
35 43% 57% Median
36 2% 14%  
37 9% 11%  
38 2% 2%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.2% 100%  
17 2% 99.8%  
18 2% 98%  
19 3% 96%  
20 13% 93%  
21 18% 81%  
22 52% 62% Median
23 5% 11%  
24 3% 5%  
25 0.4% 2% Last Result
26 2% 2%  
27 0% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations