Opinion Poll by Mediana for POP TV, 1–22 August 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 24.9% 25.5% 23.5–27.7% 22.9–28.3% 22.4–28.8% 21.5–29.9%
Socialni demokrati 9.9% 17.6% 15.9–19.6% 15.4–20.1% 15.0–20.6% 14.2–21.6%
Levica 9.3% 13.9% 12.3–15.7% 11.9–16.2% 11.5–16.6% 10.8–17.5%
Lista Marjana Šarca 12.6% 8.8% 7.6–10.3% 7.2–10.8% 7.0–11.1% 6.4–11.9%
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7.2% 8.8% 7.6–10.3% 7.2–10.8% 7.0–11.1% 6.4–11.9%
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5.1% 6.4% 5.4–7.8% 5.1–8.2% 4.9–8.5% 4.4–9.2%
Piratska stranka Slovenije 2.2% 4.1% 3.3–5.2% 3.0–5.5% 2.8–5.8% 2.5–6.4%
Andrej Čuš in Zeleni Slovenije 1.1% 3.2% 2.5–4.2% 2.3–4.5% 2.1–4.8% 1.9–5.3%
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4.2% 2.8% 2.1–3.8% 2.0–4.0% 1.8–4.3% 1.6–4.8%
Dobra država 1.5% 2.4% 1.8–3.3% 1.6–3.6% 1.5–3.8% 1.2–4.3%
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 4.9% 2.2% 1.7–3.1% 1.5–3.4% 1.4–3.6% 1.2–4.1%
Slovenska ljudska stranka 2.6% 1.7% 1.2–2.5% 1.1–2.7% 1.0–2.9% 0.8–3.4%
Stranka modernega centra 9.7% 0.6% 0.3–1.1% 0.3–1.3% 0.2–1.4% 0.1–1.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 25 28 25–29 24–30 23–31 22–33
Socialni demokrati 10 19 17–21 17–21 15–21 14–22
Levica 9 14 13–16 12–16 12–17 11–19
Lista Marjana Šarca 13 9 7–10 7–11 7–12 7–12
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7 9 8–11 7–12 7–12 6–12
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5 6 5–7 5–8 5–8 0–9
Piratska stranka Slovenije 0 0 0–5 0–5 0–5 0–6
Andrej Čuš in Zeleni Slovenije 0 0 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–5
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4 0 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–4
Dobra država 0 0 0 0 0 0–4
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 5 0 0 0 0 0
Slovenska ljudska stranka 0 0 0 0 0 0
Stranka modernega centra 10 0 0 0 0 0

Slovenska demokratska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.4% 100%  
22 2% 99.5%  
23 2% 98%  
24 3% 96%  
25 5% 92% Last Result
26 13% 87%  
27 23% 74%  
28 11% 52% Median
29 32% 40%  
30 5% 9%  
31 2% 4%  
32 1.2% 2%  
33 1.0% 1.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100% Last Result
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0.6% 100%  
15 2% 99.4%  
16 2% 97%  
17 12% 95%  
18 7% 83%  
19 26% 75% Median
20 11% 50%  
21 38% 39%  
22 0.9% 1.2%  
23 0.1% 0.2%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Levica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 0.1% 100%  
11 2% 99.9%  
12 3% 98%  
13 7% 95%  
14 66% 88% Median
15 11% 22%  
16 6% 11%  
17 3% 5%  
18 0.8% 2%  
19 1.0% 1.3%  
20 0.2% 0.2%  
21 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.2% 100%  
7 32% 99.8%  
8 12% 68%  
9 44% 56% Median
10 4% 12%  
11 4% 8%  
12 3% 4%  
13 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
14 0% 0%  

Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.5% 100%  
7 6% 99.5% Last Result
8 22% 93%  
9 27% 71% Median
10 7% 44%  
11 29% 38%  
12 8% 8%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Stranka Alenke Bratušek

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.0% 100%  
1 0% 99.0%  
2 0% 99.0%  
3 0% 99.0%  
4 0.5% 99.0%  
5 14% 98% Last Result
6 40% 85% Median
7 37% 45%  
8 6% 8%  
9 2% 2%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Piratska stranka Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratska stranka Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 68% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 32%  
2 0% 32%  
3 0% 32%  
4 18% 32%  
5 13% 14%  
6 0.9% 1.0%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Andrej Čuš in Zeleni Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Andrej Čuš in Zeleni Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 88% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 12%  
2 0% 12%  
3 0% 12%  
4 10% 12%  
5 1.4% 1.4%  
6 0% 0%  

Slovenska nacionalna stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 88% 100% Median
1 0% 12%  
2 0% 12%  
3 0% 12%  
4 11% 12% Last Result
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Dobra država

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Dobra država page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.6% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 1.4%  
2 0% 1.4%  
3 0% 1.4%  
4 1.4% 1.4%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.7% 100% Median
1 0% 0.3%  
2 0% 0.3%  
3 0% 0.3%  
4 0.2% 0.3%  
5 0% 0% Last Result

Slovenska ljudska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska ljudska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.2%  
2 0% 0.2%  
3 0% 0.2%  
4 0.2% 0.2%  
5 0% 0%  

Stranka modernega centra

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka modernega centra page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 50 45 21% 40–47 40–47 39–47 38–48
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 43 36 0% 34–38 33–39 32–41 30–45
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca 38 36 0% 34–38 33–39 32–41 30–45
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 35 38 0% 35–40 33–40 33–40 32–41
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 45 38 0% 35–40 33–40 33–40 32–41
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 30 38 0% 35–40 33–40 33–40 32–41
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 40 38 0% 35–40 33–40 33–40 32–41
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 43 34 0% 31–37 31–37 30–38 29–40
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 28 28 0% 26–30 25–30 25–31 23–32
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 38 28 0% 26–30 25–30 25–31 23–32
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca 23 28 0% 26–30 25–30 25–31 23–32
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra 33 28 0% 26–30 25–30 25–31 23–32
Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 25 19 0% 17–21 17–21 16–21 14–22

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.3% 100%  
38 1.1% 99.7%  
39 3% 98.5%  
40 8% 95%  
41 6% 88%  
42 8% 81%  
43 16% 73% Median
44 6% 58%  
45 31% 51%  
46 10% 21% Majority
47 9% 11%  
48 1.0% 1.5%  
49 0.2% 0.5%  
50 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
51 0% 0%  

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 1.5% 99.9%  
31 0.3% 98%  
32 3% 98%  
33 2% 95%  
34 5% 93%  
35 11% 88%  
36 50% 77%  
37 14% 27% Median
38 7% 13%  
39 2% 6%  
40 0.9% 4%  
41 1.0% 3%  
42 0.6% 2%  
43 0.6% 1.1% Last Result
44 0% 0.5%  
45 0.5% 0.5%  
46 0% 0% Majority

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 1.5% 99.8%  
31 0.4% 98%  
32 3% 98%  
33 2% 95%  
34 5% 93%  
35 11% 88%  
36 50% 76%  
37 14% 27% Median
38 7% 12% Last Result
39 2% 5%  
40 0.9% 4%  
41 1.0% 3%  
42 0.6% 2%  
43 0.6% 1.1%  
44 0% 0.5%  
45 0.5% 0.5%  
46 0% 0% Majority

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100%  
31 0.3% 99.9%  
32 1.4% 99.7%  
33 4% 98%  
34 4% 94%  
35 12% 90% Last Result
36 16% 79%  
37 5% 62% Median
38 9% 58%  
39 37% 49%  
40 10% 12%  
41 1.5% 2%  
42 0.1% 0.4%  
43 0.2% 0.2%  
44 0% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100%  
31 0.3% 99.9%  
32 1.4% 99.7%  
33 4% 98%  
34 4% 94%  
35 12% 90%  
36 16% 79%  
37 5% 62% Median
38 9% 58%  
39 37% 49%  
40 10% 12%  
41 1.5% 2%  
42 0.1% 0.4%  
43 0.2% 0.2%  
44 0% 0.1%  
45 0% 0% Last Result

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100% Last Result
31 0.3% 99.9%  
32 1.4% 99.7%  
33 4% 98%  
34 4% 94%  
35 12% 90%  
36 16% 78%  
37 4% 62% Median
38 9% 58%  
39 37% 49%  
40 10% 12%  
41 1.5% 2%  
42 0.1% 0.3%  
43 0.2% 0.2%  
44 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100%  
31 0.3% 99.9%  
32 1.4% 99.7%  
33 4% 98%  
34 4% 94%  
35 12% 90%  
36 16% 78%  
37 4% 62% Median
38 9% 58%  
39 37% 49%  
40 10% 12% Last Result
41 1.5% 2%  
42 0.1% 0.3%  
43 0.2% 0.2%  
44 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.3% 100%  
29 1.1% 99.7%  
30 1.4% 98.6%  
31 8% 97%  
32 5% 89%  
33 3% 84%  
34 40% 81% Median
35 26% 41%  
36 3% 15%  
37 10% 12%  
38 0.6% 3%  
39 1.5% 2%  
40 0.6% 0.6%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0% Last Result

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 1.1% 99.9%  
24 1.1% 98.8%  
25 4% 98%  
26 9% 94%  
27 10% 85%  
28 54% 75% Last Result, Median
29 9% 21%  
30 9% 12%  
31 2% 3%  
32 1.3% 1.4%  
33 0% 0.1%  
34 0% 0.1%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 1.1% 99.9%  
24 1.1% 98.8%  
25 4% 98%  
26 9% 94%  
27 10% 85%  
28 54% 75% Median
29 9% 21%  
30 9% 12%  
31 2% 3%  
32 1.3% 1.4%  
33 0% 0.1%  
34 0% 0.1%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 1.2% 99.9% Last Result
24 1.1% 98.7%  
25 4% 98%  
26 9% 94%  
27 10% 85%  
28 54% 75% Median
29 9% 21%  
30 9% 12%  
31 2% 3%  
32 1.3% 1.4%  
33 0% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 1.2% 99.9%  
24 1.1% 98.7%  
25 4% 98%  
26 9% 94%  
27 10% 85%  
28 54% 75% Median
29 9% 21%  
30 9% 12%  
31 2% 3%  
32 1.3% 1.4%  
33 0% 0.1% Last Result
34 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.6% 100%  
15 2% 99.4%  
16 2% 98%  
17 12% 95%  
18 7% 83%  
19 26% 75% Median
20 11% 50%  
21 38% 39%  
22 1.0% 1.2%  
23 0.1% 0.3%  
24 0.1% 0.2%  
25 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
26 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations