Opinion Poll by Parsifal for Nova 24TV, 30 August–2 September 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions

Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slovenska demokratska stranka | 24.9% | 23.1% | 21.2–25.2% | 20.7–25.8% | 20.2–26.4% | 19.3–27.4% |
| Socialni demokrati | 9.9% | 16.3% | 14.6–18.1% | 14.1–18.7% | 13.7–19.1% | 13.0–20.0% |
| Levica | 9.3% | 12.8% | 11.3–14.5% | 10.9–15.0% | 10.6–15.4% | 9.9–16.3% |
| Lista Marjana Šarca | 12.6% | 11.6% | 10.2–13.2% | 9.8–13.7% | 9.4–14.1% | 8.8–14.9% |
| Stranka Alenke Bratušek | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.2–7.5% | 4.9–7.9% | 4.7–8.2% | 4.2–8.9% |
| Slovenska nacionalna stranka | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.1–6.2% | 3.8–6.5% | 3.6–6.8% | 3.2–7.4% |
| Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati | 7.2% | 4.1% | 3.3–5.2% | 3.1–5.6% | 2.9–5.9% | 2.6–6.4% |
| Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 4.9% | 4.1% | 3.3–5.2% | 3.1–5.6% | 2.9–5.9% | 2.6–6.4% |
| Piratska stranka Slovenije | 2.2% | 2.3% | 1.8–3.2% | 1.6–3.5% | 1.5–3.7% | 1.2–4.2% |
| Stranka modernega centra | 9.7% | 1.7% | 1.2–2.4% | 1.1–2.7% | 0.9–2.9% | 0.8–3.3% |
| Dobra država | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.9–2.0% | 0.7–2.2% | 0.7–2.3% | 0.5–2.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats


Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slovenska demokratska stranka | 25 | 23 | 20–26 | 20–27 | 19–27 | 19–27 |
| Socialni demokrati | 10 | 16 | 13–17 | 13–18 | 13–18 | 12–20 |
| Levica | 9 | 12 | 11–14 | 10–14 | 10–15 | 9–16 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca | 13 | 11 | 10–13 | 9–13 | 9–14 | 8–15 |
| Stranka Alenke Bratušek | 5 | 6 | 4–7 | 4–7 | 4–8 | 4–8 |
| Slovenska nacionalna stranka | 4 | 4 | 0–5 | 0–6 | 0–6 | 0–7 |
| Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati | 7 | 4 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–6 |
| Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 5 | 4 | 0–4 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–6 |
| Piratska stranka Slovenije | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 |
| Stranka modernega centra | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dobra država | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Slovenska demokratska stranka
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 19 | 3% | 99.7% | |
| 20 | 8% | 97% | |
| 21 | 15% | 89% | |
| 22 | 17% | 74% | |
| 23 | 19% | 56% | Median |
| 24 | 10% | 37% | |
| 25 | 16% | 27% | Last Result |
| 26 | 3% | 11% | |
| 27 | 7% | 7% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% |
Socialni demokrati
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 11 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.9% | 99.9% | |
| 13 | 10% | 99.1% | |
| 14 | 6% | 89% | |
| 15 | 21% | 83% | |
| 16 | 26% | 62% | Median |
| 17 | 29% | 36% | |
| 18 | 5% | 7% | |
| 19 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 20 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 21 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Levica
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 10 | 4% | 98% | |
| 11 | 10% | 94% | |
| 12 | 41% | 84% | Median |
| 13 | 33% | 43% | |
| 14 | 5% | 10% | |
| 15 | 3% | 5% | |
| 16 | 2% | 2% | |
| 17 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 9 | 8% | 98.9% | |
| 10 | 28% | 91% | |
| 11 | 27% | 63% | Median |
| 12 | 16% | 36% | |
| 13 | 17% | 20% | Last Result |
| 14 | 2% | 3% | |
| 15 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 16 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Stranka Alenke Bratušek
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 4 | 11% | 99.7% | |
| 5 | 33% | 89% | Last Result |
| 6 | 41% | 56% | Median |
| 7 | 10% | 15% | |
| 8 | 4% | 5% | |
| 9 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Slovenska nacionalna stranka
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 88% | |
| 2 | 0% | 88% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 88% | |
| 4 | 45% | 88% | Last Result, Median |
| 5 | 34% | 44% | |
| 6 | 9% | 10% | |
| 7 | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 42% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 58% | |
| 2 | 0% | 58% | |
| 3 | 0.2% | 58% | |
| 4 | 40% | 58% | Median |
| 5 | 18% | 19% | |
| 6 | 1.0% | 1.1% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 39% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 61% | |
| 2 | 0% | 61% | |
| 3 | 6% | 61% | |
| 4 | 45% | 55% | Median |
| 5 | 8% | 10% | Last Result |
| 6 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Piratska stranka Slovenije
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratska stranka Slovenije page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.4% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 4 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Stranka modernega centra
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka modernega centra page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Dobra država
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Dobra država page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions

Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra | 50 | 38 | 0% | 34–41 | 34–42 | 33–43 | 32–43 |
| Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 43 | 37 | 0% | 33–40 | 33–40 | 32–41 | 30–42 |
| Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra | 43 | 35 | 0% | 32–39 | 31–40 | 30–40 | 30–41 |
| Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca | 38 | 34 | 0% | 31–37 | 30–40 | 30–40 | 29–40 |
| Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati | 35 | 31 | 0% | 29–35 | 28–37 | 27–37 | 25–38 |
| Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra | 45 | 31 | 0% | 29–35 | 28–37 | 27–37 | 25–38 |
| Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati | 30 | 30 | 0% | 27–32 | 26–33 | 25–34 | 24–35 |
| Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra | 40 | 30 | 0% | 27–32 | 26–33 | 25–34 | 24–35 |
| Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 28 | 29 | 0% | 26–33 | 25–34 | 24–34 | 24–36 |
| Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra | 38 | 29 | 0% | 26–33 | 25–34 | 24–34 | 24–36 |
| Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca | 23 | 27 | 0% | 24–29 | 24–30 | 24–31 | 23–32 |
| Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra | 33 | 27 | 0% | 24–29 | 24–30 | 24–31 | 23–32 |
| Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra | 25 | 19 | 0% | 15–21 | 14–22 | 13–22 | 13–24 |
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 32 | 1.2% | 99.5% | |
| 33 | 3% | 98% | |
| 34 | 8% | 95% | |
| 35 | 7% | 87% | |
| 36 | 13% | 80% | |
| 37 | 15% | 66% | |
| 38 | 18% | 51% | |
| 39 | 11% | 33% | |
| 40 | 10% | 23% | |
| 41 | 6% | 13% | Median |
| 42 | 3% | 7% | |
| 43 | 4% | 4% | |
| 44 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 45 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 30 | 1.1% | 99.9% | |
| 31 | 1.3% | 98.8% | |
| 32 | 2% | 98% | |
| 33 | 12% | 95% | |
| 34 | 6% | 83% | |
| 35 | 9% | 76% | |
| 36 | 15% | 67% | |
| 37 | 15% | 52% | |
| 38 | 9% | 37% | Median |
| 39 | 9% | 28% | |
| 40 | 16% | 19% | |
| 41 | 3% | 4% | |
| 42 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 43 | 0.1% | 0.2% | Last Result |
| 44 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% |
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 30 | 3% | 99.8% | |
| 31 | 4% | 96% | |
| 32 | 4% | 93% | |
| 33 | 24% | 89% | |
| 34 | 13% | 65% | |
| 35 | 10% | 52% | |
| 36 | 15% | 42% | |
| 37 | 5% | 27% | Median |
| 38 | 12% | 23% | |
| 39 | 5% | 11% | |
| 40 | 4% | 5% | |
| 41 | 1.0% | 1.2% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 43 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 44 | 0% | 0% |
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 29 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 30 | 5% | 98% | |
| 31 | 10% | 93% | |
| 32 | 8% | 83% | |
| 33 | 24% | 75% | |
| 34 | 11% | 51% | Median |
| 35 | 11% | 41% | |
| 36 | 14% | 30% | |
| 37 | 7% | 16% | |
| 38 | 2% | 9% | Last Result |
| 39 | 0.2% | 7% | |
| 40 | 7% | 7% | |
| 41 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% |
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 26 | 1.0% | 99.3% | |
| 27 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 28 | 4% | 97% | |
| 29 | 12% | 93% | |
| 30 | 5% | 81% | |
| 31 | 27% | 76% | |
| 32 | 10% | 49% | |
| 33 | 6% | 38% | |
| 34 | 16% | 32% | |
| 35 | 7% | 16% | Last Result, Median |
| 36 | 4% | 9% | |
| 37 | 4% | 5% | |
| 38 | 1.1% | 1.4% | |
| 39 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% |
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 26 | 1.0% | 99.3% | |
| 27 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 28 | 4% | 97% | |
| 29 | 12% | 93% | |
| 30 | 5% | 81% | |
| 31 | 27% | 76% | |
| 32 | 10% | 49% | |
| 33 | 6% | 38% | |
| 34 | 16% | 32% | |
| 35 | 7% | 16% | Median |
| 36 | 4% | 9% | |
| 37 | 4% | 5% | |
| 38 | 1.1% | 1.4% | |
| 39 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 24 | 0.8% | 99.7% | |
| 25 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 26 | 4% | 97% | |
| 27 | 12% | 93% | |
| 28 | 16% | 81% | |
| 29 | 14% | 65% | |
| 30 | 18% | 50% | Last Result |
| 31 | 18% | 33% | Median |
| 32 | 7% | 15% | |
| 33 | 4% | 8% | |
| 34 | 3% | 4% | |
| 35 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 37 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% |
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 24 | 0.8% | 99.7% | |
| 25 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 26 | 4% | 97% | |
| 27 | 12% | 93% | |
| 28 | 16% | 81% | |
| 29 | 14% | 65% | |
| 30 | 18% | 50% | |
| 31 | 18% | 33% | Median |
| 32 | 7% | 15% | |
| 33 | 4% | 8% | |
| 34 | 3% | 4% | |
| 35 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 37 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 24 | 4% | 99.8% | |
| 25 | 4% | 96% | |
| 26 | 2% | 92% | |
| 27 | 17% | 90% | |
| 28 | 6% | 73% | Last Result |
| 29 | 18% | 66% | |
| 30 | 11% | 48% | |
| 31 | 18% | 37% | Median |
| 32 | 8% | 20% | |
| 33 | 6% | 12% | |
| 34 | 5% | 6% | |
| 35 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 36 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% |
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 24 | 4% | 99.8% | |
| 25 | 4% | 96% | |
| 26 | 2% | 92% | |
| 27 | 17% | 90% | |
| 28 | 6% | 73% | |
| 29 | 18% | 66% | |
| 30 | 11% | 49% | |
| 31 | 18% | 37% | Median |
| 32 | 8% | 20% | |
| 33 | 6% | 12% | |
| 34 | 5% | 6% | |
| 35 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 36 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 23 | 2% | 99.6% | Last Result |
| 24 | 10% | 98% | |
| 25 | 12% | 88% | |
| 26 | 14% | 76% | |
| 27 | 27% | 62% | Median |
| 28 | 13% | 35% | |
| 29 | 13% | 21% | |
| 30 | 6% | 8% | |
| 31 | 2% | 3% | |
| 32 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 33 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 34 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% |
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 23 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 24 | 10% | 98% | |
| 25 | 12% | 88% | |
| 26 | 14% | 76% | |
| 27 | 27% | 62% | Median |
| 28 | 13% | 35% | |
| 29 | 13% | 21% | |
| 30 | 6% | 8% | |
| 31 | 2% | 3% | |
| 32 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 33 | 0.1% | 0.2% | Last Result |
| 34 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% |
Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 13 | 4% | 99.7% | |
| 14 | 1.0% | 96% | |
| 15 | 6% | 95% | |
| 16 | 22% | 89% | |
| 17 | 10% | 67% | |
| 18 | 6% | 57% | |
| 19 | 13% | 51% | |
| 20 | 11% | 38% | Median |
| 21 | 20% | 27% | |
| 22 | 5% | 6% | |
| 23 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 24 | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Parsifal
- Commissioner(s): Nova 24TV
- Fieldwork period: 30 August–2 September 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 726
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 3.95%