Opinion Poll by Parsifal for Nova 24TV, 30 August–2 September 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 24.9% 23.1% 21.2–25.2% 20.7–25.8% 20.2–26.4% 19.3–27.4%
Socialni demokrati 9.9% 16.3% 14.6–18.1% 14.1–18.7% 13.7–19.1% 13.0–20.0%
Levica 9.3% 12.8% 11.3–14.5% 10.9–15.0% 10.6–15.4% 9.9–16.3%
Lista Marjana Šarca 12.6% 11.6% 10.2–13.2% 9.8–13.7% 9.4–14.1% 8.8–14.9%
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5.1% 6.2% 5.2–7.5% 4.9–7.9% 4.7–8.2% 4.2–8.9%
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4.2% 5.0% 4.1–6.2% 3.8–6.5% 3.6–6.8% 3.2–7.4%
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7.2% 4.1% 3.3–5.2% 3.1–5.6% 2.9–5.9% 2.6–6.4%
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 4.9% 4.1% 3.3–5.2% 3.1–5.6% 2.9–5.9% 2.6–6.4%
Piratska stranka Slovenije 2.2% 2.3% 1.8–3.2% 1.6–3.5% 1.5–3.7% 1.2–4.2%
Stranka modernega centra 9.7% 1.7% 1.2–2.4% 1.1–2.7% 0.9–2.9% 0.8–3.3%
Dobra država 1.5% 1.2% 0.9–2.0% 0.7–2.2% 0.7–2.3% 0.5–2.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 25 23 20–26 20–27 19–27 19–27
Socialni demokrati 10 16 13–17 13–18 13–18 12–20
Levica 9 12 11–14 10–14 10–15 9–16
Lista Marjana Šarca 13 11 10–13 9–13 9–14 8–15
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5 6 4–7 4–7 4–8 4–8
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4 4 0–5 0–6 0–6 0–7
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7 4 0–5 0–5 0–5 0–6
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 5 4 0–4 0–5 0–5 0–6
Piratska stranka Slovenije 0 0 0 0 0 0–4
Stranka modernega centra 10 0 0 0 0 0
Dobra država 0 0 0 0 0 0

Slovenska demokratska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0.2% 99.9%  
19 3% 99.7%  
20 8% 97%  
21 15% 89%  
22 17% 74%  
23 19% 56% Median
24 10% 37%  
25 16% 27% Last Result
26 3% 11%  
27 7% 7%  
28 0.1% 0.2%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100% Last Result
11 0.1% 100%  
12 0.9% 99.9%  
13 10% 99.1%  
14 6% 89%  
15 21% 83%  
16 26% 62% Median
17 29% 36%  
18 5% 7%  
19 1.0% 2%  
20 0.7% 0.9%  
21 0.2% 0.2%  
22 0% 0%  

Levica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 2% 100% Last Result
10 4% 98%  
11 10% 94%  
12 41% 84% Median
13 33% 43%  
14 5% 10%  
15 3% 5%  
16 2% 2%  
17 0.2% 0.2%  
18 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 1.1% 100%  
9 8% 98.9%  
10 28% 91%  
11 27% 63% Median
12 16% 36%  
13 17% 20% Last Result
14 2% 3%  
15 0.3% 0.7%  
16 0.4% 0.4%  
17 0% 0%  

Stranka Alenke Bratušek

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 0% 99.8%  
2 0% 99.8%  
3 0.1% 99.8%  
4 11% 99.7%  
5 33% 89% Last Result
6 41% 56% Median
7 10% 15%  
8 4% 5%  
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  

Slovenska nacionalna stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 12% 100%  
1 0% 88%  
2 0% 88%  
3 0.1% 88%  
4 45% 88% Last Result, Median
5 34% 44%  
6 9% 10%  
7 0.9% 1.0%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 42% 100%  
1 0% 58%  
2 0% 58%  
3 0.2% 58%  
4 40% 58% Median
5 18% 19%  
6 1.0% 1.1%  
7 0% 0% Last Result

Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 39% 100%  
1 0% 61%  
2 0% 61%  
3 6% 61%  
4 45% 55% Median
5 8% 10% Last Result
6 1.5% 2%  
7 0% 0%  

Piratska stranka Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratska stranka Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.4% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.6%  
2 0% 0.6%  
3 0.1% 0.6%  
4 0.5% 0.5%  
5 0% 0%  

Stranka modernega centra

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka modernega centra page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Dobra država

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Dobra država page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 50 38 0% 34–41 34–42 33–43 32–43
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 43 37 0% 33–40 33–40 32–41 30–42
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 43 35 0% 32–39 31–40 30–40 30–41
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca 38 34 0% 31–37 30–40 30–40 29–40
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 35 31 0% 29–35 28–37 27–37 25–38
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 45 31 0% 29–35 28–37 27–37 25–38
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 30 30 0% 27–32 26–33 25–34 24–35
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 40 30 0% 27–32 26–33 25–34 24–35
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 28 29 0% 26–33 25–34 24–34 24–36
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 38 29 0% 26–33 25–34 24–34 24–36
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca 23 27 0% 24–29 24–30 24–31 23–32
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra 33 27 0% 24–29 24–30 24–31 23–32
Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 25 19 0% 15–21 14–22 13–22 13–24

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.3% 99.8%  
32 1.2% 99.5%  
33 3% 98%  
34 8% 95%  
35 7% 87%  
36 13% 80%  
37 15% 66%  
38 18% 51%  
39 11% 33%  
40 10% 23%  
41 6% 13% Median
42 3% 7%  
43 4% 4%  
44 0.2% 0.4%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0% Majority
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0% Last Result

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 1.1% 99.9%  
31 1.3% 98.8%  
32 2% 98%  
33 12% 95%  
34 6% 83%  
35 9% 76%  
36 15% 67%  
37 15% 52%  
38 9% 37% Median
39 9% 28%  
40 16% 19%  
41 3% 4%  
42 0.8% 1.0%  
43 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
44 0% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100%  
29 0.1% 99.9%  
30 3% 99.8%  
31 4% 96%  
32 4% 93%  
33 24% 89%  
34 13% 65%  
35 10% 52%  
36 15% 42%  
37 5% 27% Median
38 12% 23%  
39 5% 11%  
40 4% 5%  
41 1.0% 1.2%  
42 0.1% 0.2%  
43 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
44 0% 0%  

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 2% 99.8%  
30 5% 98%  
31 10% 93%  
32 8% 83%  
33 24% 75%  
34 11% 51% Median
35 11% 41%  
36 14% 30%  
37 7% 16%  
38 2% 9% Last Result
39 0.2% 7%  
40 7% 7%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.2% 100%  
25 0.5% 99.8%  
26 1.0% 99.3%  
27 1.2% 98%  
28 4% 97%  
29 12% 93%  
30 5% 81%  
31 27% 76%  
32 10% 49%  
33 6% 38%  
34 16% 32%  
35 7% 16% Last Result, Median
36 4% 9%  
37 4% 5%  
38 1.1% 1.4%  
39 0.2% 0.2%  
40 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.2% 100%  
25 0.5% 99.8%  
26 1.0% 99.3%  
27 1.2% 98%  
28 4% 97%  
29 12% 93%  
30 5% 81%  
31 27% 76%  
32 10% 49%  
33 6% 38%  
34 16% 32%  
35 7% 16% Median
36 4% 9%  
37 4% 5%  
38 1.1% 1.4%  
39 0.2% 0.2%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0% Last Result

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.3% 99.9%  
24 0.8% 99.7%  
25 2% 98.9%  
26 4% 97%  
27 12% 93%  
28 16% 81%  
29 14% 65%  
30 18% 50% Last Result
31 18% 33% Median
32 7% 15%  
33 4% 8%  
34 3% 4%  
35 0.6% 0.9%  
36 0.1% 0.2%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0.1%  
39 0% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.3% 99.9%  
24 0.8% 99.7%  
25 2% 98.9%  
26 4% 97%  
27 12% 93%  
28 16% 81%  
29 14% 65%  
30 18% 50%  
31 18% 33% Median
32 7% 15%  
33 4% 8%  
34 3% 4%  
35 0.6% 0.9%  
36 0.1% 0.2%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0.1%  
39 0% 0.1%  
40 0% 0% Last Result

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.2% 100%  
24 4% 99.8%  
25 4% 96%  
26 2% 92%  
27 17% 90%  
28 6% 73% Last Result
29 18% 66%  
30 11% 48%  
31 18% 37% Median
32 8% 20%  
33 6% 12%  
34 5% 6%  
35 0.7% 1.2%  
36 0.5% 0.5%  
37 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.2% 100%  
24 4% 99.8%  
25 4% 96%  
26 2% 92%  
27 17% 90%  
28 6% 73%  
29 18% 66%  
30 11% 49%  
31 18% 37% Median
32 8% 20%  
33 6% 12%  
34 5% 6%  
35 0.7% 1.2%  
36 0.5% 0.5%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.3% 99.9%  
23 2% 99.6% Last Result
24 10% 98%  
25 12% 88%  
26 14% 76%  
27 27% 62% Median
28 13% 35%  
29 13% 21%  
30 6% 8%  
31 2% 3%  
32 0.7% 0.9%  
33 0.1% 0.2%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.3% 99.9%  
23 2% 99.6%  
24 10% 98%  
25 12% 88%  
26 14% 76%  
27 27% 62% Median
28 13% 35%  
29 13% 21%  
30 6% 8%  
31 2% 3%  
32 0.7% 0.9%  
33 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.3% 100%  
13 4% 99.7%  
14 1.0% 96%  
15 6% 95%  
16 22% 89%  
17 10% 67%  
18 6% 57%  
19 13% 51%  
20 11% 38% Median
21 20% 27%  
22 5% 6%  
23 0.7% 2%  
24 0.9% 1.0%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations