Opinion Poll by Mediana for Delo, 6–9 September 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 24.9% 30.5% 28.4–32.8% 27.8–33.5% 27.2–34.0% 26.2–35.1%
Socialni demokrati 9.9% 17.3% 15.6–19.2% 15.1–19.8% 14.7–20.3% 13.9–21.2%
Levica 9.3% 12.8% 11.3–14.5% 10.9–15.0% 10.5–15.5% 9.9–16.3%
Lista Marjana Šarca 12.6% 10.5% 9.2–12.2% 8.8–12.6% 8.5–13.0% 7.9–13.8%
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7.2% 6.8% 5.7–8.1% 5.4–8.5% 5.1–8.8% 4.7–9.5%
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5.1% 6.3% 5.3–7.7% 5.0–8.0% 4.8–8.4% 4.3–9.1%
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 4.9% 3.4% 2.7–4.4% 2.4–4.7% 2.3–5.0% 2.0–5.5%
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4.2% 2.8% 2.2–3.8% 2.0–4.1% 1.8–4.3% 1.6–4.8%
Stranka modernega centra 9.7% 2.0% 1.4–2.8% 1.3–3.1% 1.2–3.3% 1.0–3.7%
Andrej Čuš in Zeleni Slovenije 1.1% 1.8% 1.3–2.7% 1.2–2.9% 1.1–3.1% 0.9–3.6%
Dobra država 1.5% 1.5% 1.1–2.3% 1.0–2.5% 0.9–2.8% 0.7–3.2%
Piratska stranka Slovenije 2.2% 1.3% 0.9–2.0% 0.8–2.2% 0.7–2.4% 0.5–2.8%
Slovenska ljudska stranka 2.6% 0.7% 0.4–1.3% 0.4–1.5% 0.3–1.6% 0.2–2.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 25 32 29–34 28–34 28–36 26–37
Socialni demokrati 10 18 15–20 14–21 14–21 14–23
Levica 9 14 10–15 10–16 10–17 10–17
Lista Marjana Šarca 13 10 9–13 9–13 8–13 8–14
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7 7 5–8 5–8 5–10 4–10
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5 6 5–8 5–8 4–9 4–10
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 5 0 0–4 0–4 0–5 0–5
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4 0 0 0 0 0–5
Stranka modernega centra 10 0 0 0 0 0
Andrej Čuš in Zeleni Slovenije 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dobra država 0 0 0 0 0 0
Piratska stranka Slovenije 0 0 0 0 0 0
Slovenska ljudska stranka 0 0 0 0 0 0

Slovenska demokratska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.2% 100% Last Result
26 0.3% 99.8%  
27 0.6% 99.5%  
28 7% 98.9%  
29 4% 92%  
30 6% 88%  
31 8% 82%  
32 26% 74% Median
33 30% 48%  
34 13% 18%  
35 2% 4%  
36 2% 3%  
37 0.6% 0.7%  
38 0.2% 0.2%  
39 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100% Last Result
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0.1% 100%  
14 9% 99.9%  
15 8% 91%  
16 16% 83%  
17 10% 67%  
18 21% 57% Median
19 22% 36%  
20 4% 14%  
21 8% 10%  
22 0.8% 1.3%  
23 0.6% 0.6%  
24 0% 0%  

Levica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.2% 100% Last Result
10 10% 99.7%  
11 4% 89%  
12 22% 86%  
13 8% 64%  
14 42% 56% Median
15 8% 14%  
16 2% 6%  
17 4% 4%  
18 0% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.2% 100%  
8 4% 99.8%  
9 16% 96%  
10 32% 79% Median
11 19% 47%  
12 16% 28%  
13 11% 12% Last Result
14 2% 2%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 1.4% 100%  
5 9% 98.6%  
6 16% 90%  
7 29% 74% Last Result, Median
8 40% 45%  
9 1.4% 5%  
10 3% 3%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Stranka Alenke Bratušek

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 4% 99.9%  
5 34% 96% Last Result
6 24% 62% Median
7 23% 38%  
8 11% 15%  
9 3% 4%  
10 0.5% 0.8%  
11 0.3% 0.3%  
12 0% 0%  

Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 74% 100% Median
1 0% 26%  
2 0% 26%  
3 0% 26%  
4 23% 26%  
5 2% 3% Last Result
6 0.5% 0.5%  
7 0% 0%  

Slovenska nacionalna stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Median
1 0% 2%  
2 0% 2%  
3 0.1% 2%  
4 2% 2% Last Result
5 0.5% 0.5%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Stranka modernega centra

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka modernega centra page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Andrej Čuš in Zeleni Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Andrej Čuš in Zeleni Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Dobra država

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Dobra država page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Piratska stranka Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratska stranka Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Slovenska ljudska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska ljudska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 43 43 25% 41–46 40–47 40–48 38–48
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 50 42 11% 40–46 40–46 39–47 37–48
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca 38 43 8% 41–45 39–46 39–46 37–47
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 35 36 0% 34–39 33–41 33–42 31–42
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 45 36 0% 34–39 33–41 33–42 31–42
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 43 35 0% 33–39 33–40 32–41 30–42
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 30 36 0% 32–38 31–39 31–40 30–41
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 40 36 0% 32–38 31–39 31–40 30–41
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 28 29 0% 27–32 26–34 26–36 24–36
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 38 29 0% 27–32 26–34 26–36 24–36
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca 23 28 0% 25–32 24–32 24–33 24–34
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra 33 28 0% 25–32 24–32 24–33 24–34
Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 25 18 0% 16–21 16–23 15–23 14–24

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.3% 100%  
38 0.7% 99.7%  
39 0.6% 99.0%  
40 4% 98%  
41 8% 95%  
42 12% 87% Median
43 29% 75% Last Result
44 5% 45%  
45 16% 41%  
46 15% 25% Majority
47 7% 9%  
48 2% 3%  
49 0.3% 0.4%  
50 0.1% 0.2%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.4% 100%  
37 0.2% 99.6%  
38 1.1% 99.4%  
39 3% 98%  
40 8% 96%  
41 22% 87% Median
42 25% 66%  
43 4% 41%  
44 17% 37%  
45 8% 20%  
46 8% 11% Majority
47 2% 4%  
48 1.3% 2%  
49 0.3% 0.4%  
50 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
51 0% 0%  

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.2% 99.9%  
37 0.8% 99.8%  
38 1.2% 98.9% Last Result
39 3% 98%  
40 4% 94%  
41 13% 90%  
42 20% 78% Median
43 33% 58%  
44 5% 25%  
45 12% 20%  
46 7% 8% Majority
47 0.6% 1.0%  
48 0.3% 0.4%  
49 0% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.3% 99.9%  
31 0.4% 99.6%  
32 0.6% 99.2%  
33 7% 98.6%  
34 9% 92%  
35 15% 82% Last Result, Median
36 24% 67%  
37 13% 43%  
38 13% 29%  
39 7% 16%  
40 3% 9%  
41 1.3% 6%  
42 4% 4%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.3% 99.9%  
31 0.4% 99.6%  
32 0.6% 99.2%  
33 7% 98.6%  
34 9% 92%  
35 15% 82% Median
36 24% 67%  
37 13% 43%  
38 13% 29%  
39 7% 16%  
40 3% 9%  
41 1.3% 6%  
42 4% 5%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0.1%  
45 0% 0% Last Result

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.2% 100%  
30 0.4% 99.8%  
31 1.1% 99.4%  
32 2% 98%  
33 27% 96%  
34 9% 69% Median
35 12% 60%  
36 15% 48%  
37 14% 32%  
38 5% 18%  
39 5% 13%  
40 5% 8%  
41 2% 3%  
42 0.4% 0.6%  
43 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
44 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.3% 100%  
30 0.5% 99.6% Last Result
31 9% 99.1%  
32 3% 90%  
33 7% 87%  
34 17% 80%  
35 8% 63% Median
36 23% 55%  
37 13% 32%  
38 10% 19%  
39 6% 9%  
40 3% 3%  
41 0.6% 0.7%  
42 0% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.3% 100%  
30 0.5% 99.6%  
31 9% 99.1%  
32 3% 91%  
33 7% 87%  
34 17% 80%  
35 8% 63% Median
36 23% 55%  
37 13% 32%  
38 10% 19%  
39 6% 9%  
40 3% 3% Last Result
41 0.6% 0.7%  
42 0% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100%  
24 0.7% 99.9%  
25 0.5% 99.2%  
26 7% 98.7%  
27 5% 91%  
28 32% 86% Last Result, Median
29 16% 54%  
30 17% 38%  
31 6% 21%  
32 5% 15%  
33 4% 10%  
34 1.4% 6%  
35 0.5% 5%  
36 4% 4%  
37 0% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100%  
24 0.7% 99.9%  
25 0.5% 99.2%  
26 7% 98.7%  
27 5% 91%  
28 32% 86% Median
29 16% 55%  
30 17% 39%  
31 6% 21%  
32 5% 15%  
33 4% 10%  
34 1.4% 6%  
35 0.5% 5%  
36 4% 4%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100% Last Result
24 9% 99.9%  
25 2% 91%  
26 14% 89%  
27 6% 75%  
28 25% 68% Median
29 16% 43%  
30 11% 27%  
31 5% 16%  
32 7% 11%  
33 3% 3%  
34 0.6% 0.7%  
35 0% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 9% 99.9%  
25 2% 91%  
26 14% 89%  
27 6% 75%  
28 25% 68% Median
29 16% 43%  
30 11% 27%  
31 5% 16%  
32 7% 11%  
33 3% 3% Last Result
34 0.6% 0.7%  
35 0% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 1.0% 100%  
15 2% 99.0%  
16 14% 97%  
17 8% 83%  
18 27% 75% Median
19 24% 49%  
20 6% 25%  
21 10% 19%  
22 3% 10%  
23 5% 7%  
24 0.8% 1.3%  
25 0.2% 0.5% Last Result
26 0.1% 0.3%  
27 0.2% 0.2%  
28 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations